DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE CLINTON TOWNSHIP SCHOOL DISTRICT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE CLINTON TOWNSHIP SCHOOL DISTRICT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE CLINTON TOWNSHIP SCHOOL DISTRICT October 27, 2014 STATISTICAL FORECASTING Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area. Performed demographic studies for

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October 27, 2014

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE CLINTON TOWNSHIP SCHOOL DISTRICT

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¡ Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area. ¡ Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ. ¡ Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.

STATISTICAL FORECASTING

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¡ Executive Director ¡ Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement ¡ Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally ¡ Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings.

RICHARD S. GRIP ED.D.

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q Project grade-by-grade enrollments from

2014-15 through 2018-19 q Analyze district historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends, and age structure q Impact of new developments on enrollment q Project enrollments for existing half-day kindergarten program as well as expanding to full-day q Perform housing turnover analysis and project its impact on future enrollment trends

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

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CLINTON TOWNSHIP HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS 1940-2040

2,349 2,926 3,770 5,119 7,345 10,816 12,957 13,478 13,975 14,430 14,961

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Historical Projected

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q 86.4% White, 6.0% Black/African American, 5.6% Hispanic q 24.1% of population is under 18 q Median age = 40.9 years q 8% of population is foreign-born. NJ=21%. q Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 53.2% q Median family income = $152,250 q 4,737 housing units, of which 83% are 1-unit homes (attached or detached) q 13.1% of housing units are renter-occupied q Median value of owner-occupied unit = $460,500

CLINTON TOWNSHIP DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

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SCHOOL LOCATIONS

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q District’s October 2013 enrollment

was 1,562. q Enrollment peaked in 2005-06 with 1,818 students but has declined for 8 consecutive years. q Loss of 256 students since peak. q Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollment five years into the future.

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS

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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT 2004-05 TO 2013-14

1,760.5 1,818 1,805 1,774 1,752 1,709 1,664 1,600 1,595 1,562

0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 1,800.0 2,000.0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT BY LEVEL

344.5 384 360 351 358 326 311 301 303 297 383 393 400 382 338 333 340 293 282 291 605 596 581 613 612 605 555 548 553 544 428 445 464 428 444 445 458 458 457 430

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

  • Gr. PK-1
  • Gr. 2-3
  • Gr. 4-6
  • Gr. 7-8
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q Ratios are calculated for each grade

  • progression. (Ex. 100 1st graders in

2012-13 become 95 2nd graders in 2013-14 = 0.95) q Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years. Seven of 9 average ratios above 1.000. q Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments.

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO

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q Negative first grade replacement (FGR) has

  • ccurred for past 9 years.

q Negative FGR- Number of graduating 8th grade students is greater than the number of 1st grade students replacing them in the next year. q Negative FGR was 86 students in 2013-14. 229 8th graders graduated in 2012-13 and replaced by 143 1st graders in 2013-14.

FIRST GRADE REPLACEMENT

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HISTORICAL FIRST GRADE REPLACEMENT

  • 56
  • 26
  • 96
  • 44
  • 68
  • 95
  • 80
  • 96
  • 86
  • 120
  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number of Students

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TOTAL ENROLLMENT CHANGE VS. FIRST GRADE REPLACEMENT

  • 56
  • 26
  • 96
  • 44
  • 68
  • 95
  • 80
  • 96
  • 86

58

  • 13
  • 31
  • 22
  • 43
  • 45
  • 64
  • 5
  • 33
  • 120
  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number of Students

First Grade Replacement Enrollment Change

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q Births in Clinton Twp. have been

declining: high of 156 in 1999, low of 82 in 2010. q Births are used to project kindergarten students 5 years later. q Fertility rates in Clinton Twp. are lower than Hunterdon County and NJ.

BIRTHS

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BIRTH RATES AND BIRTH-TO- KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS

Birth Year Number of Births Kindergarten Students Five Years Later Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratio

1999 156 142 0.910 2000 121 156 1.289 2001 129 120 0.930 2002 151 147 0.974 2003 130 137 1.054 2004 118 125 1.059 2005 117 117 1.000 2006 131 101 0.771 2007 97 112 1.155 2008 109 93 0.853 2009 105 N/A N/A 2010 82 N/A N/A 2011 89 N/A N/A 2012 92 N/A N/A 2013 92 N/A N/A

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HISTORICAL BIRTHS 1999-2011

156 121 129 151 130 118 117 131 97 109 105 82 89

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Number of Births

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AGE PYRAMID - CLINTON TOWNSHIP 2000

9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% Under 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Age Classes

Females Males

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AGE PYRAMID - CLINTON TOWNSHIP 2010

9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% Under 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Age Classes

Females Males

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AGE PYRAMID - NEW JERSEY 2010

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Under 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Females Males

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¡ 70 new housing units (53 detached SF); 66 are market-rate ¡ Potential for 65 affordable units to be built by 2017 or 2018 ¡ Another 130 affordable units could be built by 2025. ¡ Little information was available on the type of units to be built or bedroom distribution.

NEW HOUSING

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POTENTIAL NEW CHILDREN

De Developme lopment nt Number

  • f U

Units Number o

  • f C

Chi hildren K K-8 Headley F Farm E Estates 21 14 Hidden M Meadows 5 3 Fa Fairwin F Farms 1 1 Ha Hale 2 1 Springho house E Estates 4 3 Longview M Manor 15 10 Payne F Farms 5 3 Meurer D Development 17 4 COAH AH u units, 2 2015-2018 65 29 COAH AH u units 2 2019-2025 130 60 To Total 68 children 2014-2018 60 children 2019-2025

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HOUSING DISTRIBUTION

417 109 327 385 840 1353 790 421

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Prior to 1940 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010- Present Number of Homes

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BASELINE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS HALF-DAY KINDERGARTEN

1,516 1,484 1,419 1,364 1,335 1,500 1,456 1,379 1,314 1,280

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

CSR 4-Yr. CSR 6-Yr.

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BASELINE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN

1,546 1,515 1,457 1,409 1,388 1,521 1,476 1,404 1,344 1,315

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

CSR 4-Yr. CSR 6-Yr.

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ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS HALF-DAY KINDERGARTEN

1,526 1,504 1,448 1,405 1,386 1,510 1,476 1,408 1,355 1,331

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

CSR 4-Yr. CSR 6-Yr.

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ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN

1,556 1,535 1,486 1,450 1,439 1,531 1,496 1,433 1,385 1,366

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

CSR 4-Yr. CSR 6-Yr.

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ENROLLMENT BY GRADE CONFIGURATION

PK-1 2-3 4-6 7-8

2013-14

297 291 544 430

PROJECTED CSR 4-YR Half- Day K CSR 6-YR Half- Day K CSR 4-YR Full- Day K CSR 6-YR Full- Day K CSR 4-YR Half- Day K CSR 6-YR Half- Day K CSR 4-YR Full- Day K CSR 6-YR Full- Day K CSR 4-YR Half- Day K CSR 6-YR Half- Day K CSR 4-YR Full- Day K CSR 6-YR Full- Day K CSR 4-YR Half- Day K CSR 6-YR Half- Day K CSR 4-YR Full- Day K CSR 6-YR Full- Day K

2014-15 281 277 311 298 302 301 302 301 517 509 517 509 426 423 426 423 2015-16 267 268 298 288 283 274 283 274 503 489 503 489 451 445 451 445 2016-17 249 250 280 271 265 252 272 256 516 501 516 501 418 405 418 405 2017-18 259 259 291 282 247 242 260 249 505 479 505 479 394 375 394 375 2018-19 262 261 293 285 226 221 239 228 492 464 501 468 406 385 406 385

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CAPACITY ANALYSIS

Scho hool Ca Capaci city ty 20 2013- 3-14 Dif Diff. f. 20 2018- 8-19 19 Ha Half-Da f-Day y Kind. Kind. Dif Diff. f. 20 2018- 8-19 19 Fu Full-Day Kind. Kind. Dif Diff. f. Spruce R Run (PK (PK-1) 1) 400 297 +103 262 +138 293 +107 Pa Patrick McGahe heran (2- (2-3) 3) 548 291 +257 226 +322 239 +309 Round V Valley (4- (4-6) 6) 639 544 +95 492 +147 501 +138 Cl Clinton

  • n

Townshi hip Middle Middle Scho hool ( (7-8) 595 430 +165 406 +189 406 +189

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Completely independent analysis using

houses, not students, to project enrollment. Should not be used for yearly enrollment

  • projections. Use those from CSR.

Three inputs:

  • 1. Housing turnover rates by length of
  • wnership
  • 2. Current distribution of homes by length of
  • wnership
  • 3. Student yields by length of ownership

HOUSING TURNOVER ANALYSIS

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¡ Used parcel-level data to track each home through its “lifecycle”. Data contained sale dates, sale prices, and year home was built. ¡ Sales data were collected from 1973-2014. ¡ Follow each year’s cohort of homes beginning in 1973 to see when they sell. ¡ Ex. Home built in 1940 sold in 1987, 1989, and 1995 (part of three cohorts). Length of

  • wnership is 2 years after 1st sale, 6 years after

2nd sale. Current length of ownership is 19 years.

TURNOVER RATES

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WEIGHTED-AVERAGE TURNOVER RATES BY LENGTH OF OWNERSHIP

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Turnover Rate Length of Ownership

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CURRENT NUMBER OF HOMES BY LENGTH OF OWNERSHIP

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 and up

Number of Homes Length of Ownership

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YIELDS BY LENGTH OF OWNERSHIP

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 and up

Student Yield Length of Ownership

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¡ Use current length of home ownership distribution and historical turnover rates to either a) advance homes to next year of

  • wnership or b) sell home and have it

return to zero years of ownership. ¡ Number of homes at each length of

  • wnership is multiplied by student yield at

each length of ownership. HOUSING TURNOVER PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

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¡ Scenario 1 – Used average historical turnover

  • rates. Enrollment is projected to decline to

1,407 by 2018-19. ¡ Scenario 2 – Increased turnover rate of long- held homes; in essence, increasing the selling process of homes that have few children. Enrollment is projected to decline to 1,470 by 2018-19.

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FROM HOUSING TURNOVER ANALYSIS