Demographic Picture of Turkey: What lies ahead? A.Banu Ergmen, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Demographic Picture of Turkey: What lies ahead?

A.Banu Ergöçmen, Prof.Dr.

bergocme@hacettepe.edu.tr

Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies

Panel Discussion on the Demography of Turkey and other Muslim Countries 11 May 2015, Ankara

Demographic Transition, Turkey

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 1935-40 1940-45 1945-50 1950-55 1955-60 1960-65 1965-70 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 per 1,000 population CBR CDR

4,33 4,04 3,02 2,65 2,61 2,23 2,16 2,26 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 TFS 1978 TPHS 1983 TPHS 1988 TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013

Total Fertility Rate

1.89 2.48 1.93 2.08 3.41 TURKEY 2.26

Urban: 2.16 Rural: 2.73

Total Fertility Rate : Regions

North West East South Central

Variations in TFRs: Regions 1993-2013

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Total Fertility Rate by Women’s Education

3,76 2,75 2,45 1,66 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 No education/primary incomplete Primary school Secondary school High school and higher

Age Specific Fertility Rates

50 100 150 200 250 300 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TFS 1978 TPHS 1988 TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013

Median Age at Marriage and Birth (ages 25-49)

19,0 19,5 20,0 20,8 21,0 20,8 21,3 21,8 22,3 22,9 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013 Age at first marriage Age at first birth Among women: 7 % of 15-19 year olds, 73 % of 15-49 year olds and 97 %of 45-49 have been married.

Fertility Preferences, 2003-2013

TNSA- 2013 TNSA- 2003 TNSA- 2008 TNSA- 2013

Have another soon 9,9 Have another later 13,6 Have another, undecided when 0,9

Undecided 3,1 Want no more 63,4

Sterilized 5,7 Declared infecund 3,1 Missing 0,3

TDHS-2003

Have another soon 13,7 Have another later 18,1 Have another, undecided when 1,4 Undecided 3,4

Want no more 47,4

Sterilized 9,4 Declared infecund 6,5 Missing 0,1

TDHS-2013

Changes in Early Age Mortality Rates, 1993-2013

53 9 61 43 10 52 29 9 37 18 6 24 13 2 15 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Infant mortality rate Child mortality rate Under five mortality rate TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013

Changes in Life Expectancy 2014-2050

77,0 77,9 83 74,8 75,8 80,5 79,3 80,2 85,4 68,0 70,0 72,0 74,0 76,0 78,0 80,0 82,0 84,0 86,0 88,0 2014 TURKSTAT 2023 TURKSTAT 2050 UN Total Males Females

Population Pyramid of Turkey, 2014-2050

(Shadow: 2014, Line: 2050)

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Source: TURKSTAT

Female Male

6 4 2 2 4 6 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Percent

Population by major age groups

Trends of major age groups Population 65+

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Median age for 2014 is 30.7 years

65+ Population by sex, 2014-2050

65+ Total pop Total Male Female 2014 77 696 6 193 2 699 3 494 2023 84 247 8 624 3 831 4 793 2050 93 476 19 485 8 814 10 670

(thousand)

Dependency ratios

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Population 93 475 570 Population growth rate(%) 0.2 Median age 40.2 Population by age groups (%) <15 15-64 65+ 15.7 63.4 20.8 Total fertility rate 1.8 Expectation of life Total Male Female 83.0 80.5 85.4 Dependency ratios (%) Total Child Elderly 57.6 24.8 32.9

Key demographic indicators, 2050

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Demographic snapshots...

Population, almost at the end of its first demographic transition, stands at a total size of more than 77 million Population growth rate has slowed down (1.33 %) People are living longer (e0 77) Half of the population is below age 30.7; Turkey has a young population by median age, largely due to past fertility rates Turkey still has a young age structure

... Demographic snapshots

Fertility is above the replacement level (>2.1) Fertility varies by region, type of place of residence, education and wealth quantile. Transition has not been uniform throughout the country, regional disparities continue. Share of 65+ aged population is 8 percent. Current trends in major demographic parameters show that the country is about to reach or close to the final stage of its first demographic transition, however, process has not been completed yet.

Future prospects

The current young population group, growing share of the economically productive age population and the population which is expected to become much older toward the final stage of transition are the facts that require a holistic approach and a combination of policies. Future population growth will take place in the urban areas. Population ageing will become more critical Migration is expected to remain high during the 21st century.

To conclude…

It is the tendency of the young cohorts that will determine the course of demographic change in Turkey in the approaching decades. Therefore, this young population structure

• f Turkey presents potential challenges in

every aspect of the country.

References

• TFS 1978: Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1980). Turkish Fertility Survey 1978. First Report, Volume I:

Methodology and Findings, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies, Ankara.

• TPHS 1983: Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1987) 1983 Turkish Population and Health Survey, Hacettepe

University, Institute of Population Studies, Ankara.

• TPHS 1988 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1989) 1988 Turkish Population and Health Survey, Hacettepe

University Institute of Population Studies, Ankara.

• TDHS 1993 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1994). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 1993.

Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Health Directorate of Morther and Child Health, Demographic and Health Surveys, Macro International Int.

• TDHS 1998 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1999). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 1998.

Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Macro International Inc., Ministry of Health Directorate of Mother and Child Health, United Nations Population Fund, United States Agency for International Development.

• TDHS 2003 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (2005). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2003.

Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Health Directorate of Mother and Child Health, T.R Prime Ministry State Organization of Planning, European Union.

• TDHS 2008 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (2009). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2008.

Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Health Directorate of Mother and Child Health and Family Planning, State Planning Organization.

• TDHS 2013 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (2014). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2013.

Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Development.

• TURKSTAT (2015) Nüfus Projeksiyonları, Demografik Göstergeler (Population projections, demographic indicators),

http://tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1636 last accessed: 21 May 2015

• TURKSTAT (2015) Nüfus Projeksiyonları, Yaş ve Cinsiyete Göre Nüfus (Population projections, population by age and sex),

http://tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1633 last accessed: 21 May 2015

• TURKSTAT (2015) Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi Sonuçları (Results of the Address Bases Population Registration System)

http://tuikapp.tuik.gov.tr/adnksdagitapp/adnks.zul last accessed: 21 May 2015

• TURKSTAT (2015) Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi Sonuçları, Yıllara, Yaş Grubu ve Cinsiyete Göre Nüfus, Genel Nüfus

Sayımları, ADNKS (Results of the Address Bases Population Registration System, population by year, age groups and sex, Population Censuses and ABPRS) http://tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1588 last accessed: 21 May 2015

• UN (2015) World Population Prospects, 2015, Excel Tables, Mortality Data. http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm last

accessed: 21 May 2015