[PPT] - Winnetka School District 36, IL Presentation of Demographic Study PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Winnetka School District 36, IL Presentation of Demographic Study and Capacity / Utilization Study Findings

1

SLIDE 2

Why We’re Here Project Objectives

Present the Fall 2016-17 findings of the Demographic Study and Capacity / Utilization Study

2

SLIDE 3

Demographic Study assumptions include:

There will be no short term economic recovery in the next 18 months and the

national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at any time during the 10 years of the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater than 1% per quarter)

Interest rates have reached a historic low and will not fluctuate more than one

percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30 year fixed home mortgage stays below 5.0%

The rate of mortgage approval stays at 1999-2003 levels and lenders do not return

to “sub-prime” mortgage practices

There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or

additional bankruptcies of major credit providers

The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the 2005-2007 average of

suburban Cook County for any year in the forecasts

All currently planned, platted, and approved housing developments are built out

and completed by 2024. All housing units constructed are occupied by 2025

3

SLIDE 4

Demographic Study assumptions include:

The unemployment rates for the suburban Cook County and the Chicago

Metropolitan Area will remain below 7.0% for the 10 years of the forecasts

The rate of students transferring into and out of the Winnetka Public Schools will

remain at the 2011-12 to 2016-17 average

The Winnetka School District will continue to experience between 150 and 200

existing home sales annually over the next 10 years.

The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the

forecasts

There will be no building moratorium within the district
Businesses within the district and the Winnetka Public Schools area will remain

viable

The number of existing home sales in the district that are a result of “distress

sales” (homes worth less than the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of total homes sales in the district for any given year

4

SLIDE 5

Demographic Study assumptions include:

Housing turnover rates (sale of existing homes in the district) will remain

at their current levels. The majority of existing home sales are made by home owners over the age of 60

Private school and home school attendance rates will remain constant
The rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at the 2004-2008

average for suburban Cook County

5

SLIDE 6

Pop pyramids are graphic representations showing age-sex distribution of a geographic area.

Proof is in the pyramid – Population Pyramids

Demographic fingerprint. Can be placed into broad typologies, but no 2 areas have the same exact characteristics.

15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

Pre‐K kids living in area ‐‐>

Elementary aged kids ‐‐>

Middle Schoolers ‐‐> High Schoolers ‐‐>

Family Formation / Prime fertility ‐‐>

Households most likely to have school‐aged kids ‐‐>

Empty Nesters ‐‐>

Turnover Households ‐‐>

6

SLIDE 7

1,000 500 500 1,000

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

Winnetka, IL Total Population – 2010 Census

Population Pyramids

7

SLIDE 8

Population and Household Characteristics

Under 1 year 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 10 years

Crow Island 42 47 60 70 69 74 81 91 85 102 116 Greeley 22 31 31 43 46 52 60 65 68 52 66 Hubbard Woods 18 34 37 55 45 69 81 82 94 94 95 District Total 82 112 128 168 160 195 222 238 247 248 277

Table 6: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age, by Elementary Area: 2010 Census

2010 Census Under 1 year 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 10 years 11 years 12 years

2016 Enrollment

165 197 174 180 202 193 227 223

201.22% 175.89% 135.94% 107.14% 126.25% 98.97% 102.25% 93.70% 2015 Enrollment

132 191 168 177 199 201 217 220 217

160.98% 170.54% 131.25% 105.36% 124.38% 103.08% 97.75% 92.44% 87.85% 2014 Enrollment

157 172 180 196 189 224 215 224 217

140.18% 134.38% 107.14% 122.50% 96.92% 100.90% 90.34% 90.69% 87.50% 2013 Enrollment

152 173 188 195 218 204 226 216 207

118.75% 102.98% 117.50% 100.00% 98.20% 85.71% 91.50% 87.10% 74.73% 2012 Enrollment

139 174 186 204 203 223 217 206 249

82.74% 108.75% 95.38% 91.89% 85.29% 90.28% 87.50% 74.37% 86.76% 2011 Enrollment

133 178 188 189 225 201 203 250 212

83.13% 91.28% 84.68% 79.41% 91.09% 81.05% 73.29% 87.11% 79.70%

Table 7: Comparison of District Enrollment by Grade with 2010 Census Counts by Age, 2011-2016

Winnetka Public Schools Total:

82 112 128 168 160 195 222 238 247 248 277 287 266

8

SLIDE 9

Summary of findings include:

The resident total fertility rate for the Winnetka Public Schools District over the

life of the forecasts is below replacement level. (1.56 vs. the replacement level of 2.1)

Most in-migration to the district continues to occur in the 0-to-9 and 35-to-49 year
ld age groups
The local 18-to-24 year old population continues to leave the district, going to

college or moving to other urbanized areas. This population group accounts for the largest segment of the district’s out-migration flow

The primary factors causing the district's enrollment to decline over the next 10

years are the growing number of empty nest households, an insufficient existing homes sales market to maintain the current enrollment in the district, and a steady rate of in-migration of families

Changes in year-to-year enrollment over the next 10 years will primarily be due to

small cohorts entering and moving through the school system in conjunction with larger cohorts leaving the system.

9

SLIDE 10

Summary of findings include:

The elementary enrollment will begin a slight decline after the 2021-22 school
year. This will be due primarily to the fact that the rising 4th grade cohorts will be

greater than 170 students in size.

The median age of the population will increase from 42.7 in 2010 to 45.7 in 2025.
The rate, magnitude and price of existing home sales will become the increasingly

dominant factor affecting the amount of population and enrollment change.

Total district enrollment is forecasted to decrease by 114 students, or -6.7%,

between 2016-17 and 2021-22. Total enrollment will decline by 64 students, or

4.0%, from 2021-22 to 2026-27.

10

SLIDE 11

Enrollment Forecasts

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 K 133 139 152 157 132 135 139 136 138 135 137 1 178 174 173 172 191 163 165 165 162 162 159 2 188 186 188 180 168 197 167 169 169 167 169 3 189 204 195 196 177 174 201 170 172 173 173 4 225 203 218 189 199 180 179 207 175 178 181 Total: K-4 913 906 926 894 867 849 851 847 816 815 819 5 201 223 204 224 201 202 184 183 211 179 183 6 203 217 226 215 217 193 198 180 179 207 177 Total:5-6 404 440 430 439 418 395 382 363 390 386 360 7 250 206 216 224 220 227 197 202 184 183 213 8 212 249 207 217 217 223 230 200 205 187 188 Total: 7-8 462 455 423 441 437 450 427 402 389 370 401 Total: K-8 1779 1801 1779 1774 1722 1694 1660 1612 1595 1571 1580

Winnetka Public Schools: Total District Enrollment

Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historic data Blue Cells(2017-8 and later) are forecasted years

11

SLIDE 12

Enrollment Forecasts

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Total: K-8 1779 1801 1779 1774 1722 1694 1660 1612 1595 1571 1580 Change 22

22
5
52
28
34
48
17
24

9 %-Change 1.2%

1.2%
0.3%
2.9%
1.6%
2.0%
2.9%
1.1%
1.5%

0.6% Total: K-4 913 906 926 894 867 849 851 847 816 815 819 Change

7

20

32
27
18

2

4
31
1

4 %-Change

0.8%

2.2%

3.5%
3.0%
2.1%

0.2%

0.5%
3.7%
0.1%

0.5% Total: 5-6 404 440 430 439 418 395 382 363 390 386 360 Change 36

10

9

21
23
13
19

27

4
26

%-Change 8.9%

2.3%

2.1%

4.8%
5.5%
3.3%
5.0%

7.4%

1.0%
6.7%

Total: 7-8 462 455 423 441 437 450 427 402 389 370 401 Change

7
32

18

4

13

23
25
13
19

31 %-Change

1.5%
7.0%

4.3%

0.9%

3.0%

5.1%
5.9%
3.2%
4.9%

8.4%

Forecasts Developed October 2016

Green Cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historic data Blue Cells(2017-8 and later) are forecasted years

Winnetka Public Schools: Total District Enrollment

12

SLIDE 13

Capacity Study

13

SLIDE 14

Calculating Capacities

Cropper toured school buildings and meet with administrators in Summer 2016.

1. The District’s specific class size guidelines were

provided, which were used in the formula to calculate

ptimal and maximum school capacity.
2. Cropper met with each building principal to better

understand building/room uses and limitations. 3. For elementary schools, certain spaces are not counted in the capacity. These include:

Special Education pull-out/resource rooms, music,

art, library, and computer labs

Grade Class Size KG-2 17-20 3-4 17-21 5-6 18-23 7-8 18-24 Winnetka District 36 - Class Size Guidelines 14

SLIDE 15

Calculating Capacities

Computer labs, music, and art are calculated in the Washburne

capacity because of the nature of how education is delivered at the upper grades.

Once meetings with principals occurred, rooms were itemized

and counted.

Special use rooms were not included as ‘capacity’ rooms for

the counts.

Based on discussions with principals or observations in the

buildings, some schools had rooms being used as resource/pull-out because the space is available.

Some

rooms that are not being used as standard classrooms could be counted in the capacity if an adequate number of spaces to provide pull-out/resource instruction exists.

Any room changes that were assumed were noted in the

‘building notes / assumptions’ section of the report.

15

SLIDE 16

Optimal Capacity

The classroom inventory along with optimal capacity figures are shown in the table below.

KG-2 17 3-4 17 5-6 18 7-8 18

Sp. Ed*

10 *Note: Special Ed rooms for elementary schools were not included in capacity totals. Optimal Class Sizes

School

Grades Served Grade KG-2 Classrooms Grade 3-4 Classrooms Grade 5-6 Classrooms Grade 7-8 Classrooms Special Education

Total Classrooms

Total Classroom Capacity Music / Art / Labs

Crow Island K-4 10 8 3 21 306 3 Greeley K-4 9 7 3 19 272 4 Hubbard Woods K-4 9 7 2 18 272 4 Skokie 5-6 23 23 414 15 Washburne 7-8 41 6 47 798

Total

28 22 23 41 14 128 2,062 26 Note: Special Education spaces not included in capacity total for any school except Washburne.

Classrooms

Winnetka School District 36, Illinois : Optimal Capacity Calculations

16

SLIDE 17

Maximum Capacity

The classroom inventory along with maximum capacity figures are shown in the table below.

KG-2 20 3-4 21 5-6 23 7-8 24

Sp. Ed*

10 Maximum Class Sizes *Note: Special Ed rooms for elementary schools were not included in capacity totals.

School

Grades Served Grade KG-2 Classrooms Grade 3-4 Classrooms Grade 5-6 Classrooms Grade 7-8 Classrooms Special Education

Total Classrooms

Total Classroom Capacity Music/ Art / Labs

Crow Island K-4 10 8 3 21 368 3 Greeley K-4 9 7 3 19 327 4 Hubbard Woods K-4 9 7 2 18 327 4 Skokie 5-6 23 23 529 15 Washburne 7-8 41 6 47 1044

Total

28 22 23 41 14 128 2,595 26 Note: Special Education spaces not included in capacity total for any school except Washburne.

Winnetka School District 36, Illinois : Maximum Capacity Calculations

Classrooms

17

SLIDE 18

Capacity Summary

Below is a summary tables showing both the optimal and maximum capacity figures. It is recommended that the Winnetka District 36 target schools to have enrollments between the optimal and maximum capacity figures, but attempt to be closer to the optimal capacity of the schools.

School

Grades Served

Total Classrooms

Pull-Out / Music/ Art / Labs Optimal Capacity Maximum Capacity

Crow Island K-4 18 6 306 368 Greeley K-4 16 7 272 327 Hubbard Woods K-4 16 6 272 327 Skokie 5-6 23 15 414 529 Washburne 7-8 47 798 1044

Total

120 34 2,062 2,595

Winnetka School District 36, Illinois : Capacity Summary

18

SLIDE 19

Utilization Needs Assessment

19

SLIDE 20

Building Utilization (Maximum)

Once forecasts were drafted and capacities calculated, the utilization of

buildings were analyzed.

The

maximum capacity was compared to enrollment (current and forecasted) to understand how buildings are currently being utilized and how they may change through the life of the forecasts.

Tables were color-coded to visualize

how utilization changes over time:

Blue: < 70%
Yellow: 70%-89%
Orange: 90%-99%
Red: 100% or higher

Below 70% utilization Between 70-89% utilization Between 90-99% utilization 100% utilization or higher

Config Maximum Capacity 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Total: K-4 1022 89% 89% 91% 87% 85% 83% 83% 83% 80% 80% 80% 79% 78% 77% 76% Total: 5-6 529 76% 83% 81% 83% 79% 75% 72% 69% 74% 73% 68% 69% 70% 70% 70% Total: 7-8 1044 44% 44% 41% 42% 42% 43% 41% 39% 37% 35% 38% 38% 36% 36% 37% Total: K-8 2595 69% 69% 69% 68% 66% 65% 64% 62% 63% 61% 61% 61% 60% 60% 59%

Winnetka District 36: Forecasted Utilization

Maximum Capacity 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Total: K-4 1022 913 906 926 894 867 849 851 847 816 815 819 812 802 786 774 Total: 5-6 529 404 440 430 439 418 395 382 363 390 386 360 367 370 372 370 Total: 7-8 1044 462 455 423 441 437 450 427 402 389 370 401 400 373 381 385 Total: K-8 2595 1779 1801 1779 1774 1722 1694 1660 1612 1595 1571 1580 1579 1545 1539 1529

Winnetka District 36: Total District Forecasted Enrollment

Note: Green cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historic data. Blue cells (2017-18 and later) are forecasted years

20

SLIDE 21

Building Utilization (Maximum)

Individual school utilization forecasts were analyzed as shown below.
Tables were color-coded to visualize how utilization changes over time:
Blue: < 70%
Yellow: 70%-89%
Orange: 90%-99%
Red: 100% or higher

Below 70% utilization Between 70-89% utilization Between 90-99% utilization 100% utilization or higher

School Name Maximum Capacity Grade Config 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Enrollment 342 348 370 385 385 381 375 368 345 346 347 344 340 335 331 Utilization 93% 95% 101% 105% 105% 104% 104% 102% 100% 94% 94% 94% 93% 92% 91% Enrollment 279 271 279 266 241 224 228 227 211 213 215 213 211 207 205 Utilization 85% 83% 85% 81% 74% 69% 69% 70% 69% 65% 65% 66% 65% 65% 63% Enrollment 292 287 277 243 241 244 248 252 260 256 257 255 251 244 238 Utilization 89% 88% 85% 74% 74% 75% 76% 77% 80% 78% 79% 78% 77% 75% 73% Enrollment 404 440 430 439 418 395 382 363 390 386 360 367 370 372 370 Utilization 76% 83% 81% 83% 79% 75% 72% 69% 74% 73% 68% 69% 70% 70% 70% Enrollment 462 455 423 441 437 450 427 402 389 370 401 400 373 381 385 Utilization 44% 44% 41% 42% 42% 43% 41% 39% 37% 35% 38% 38% 36% 36% 37% Skokie School 529 5-6 Washburne School 1044 7-8 Greeley Elementary 327 K-4 Hubbard Woods Elementary 327 K-4 Utilization Forecast by School (2016-17 grade cohorts) Crow Island Elementary 368 K-4

21

SLIDE 22

Building Utilization (Optimal)

Optimal Capacity Utilization was also examined.
The optimal capacity was also compared to enrollment (current and

forecasted). Note that the color-coding is different than the maximum

utilization. This is because near 100% of the optimal means the school is at

the optimal rate.

Tables were color-coded to visualize

how utilization changes over time:

Blue: < 70%
Green: 70%-89%
Yellow: 90%-99%
Orange: 110-109%
Red: 110% or higher

Below 70% utilization Between 70-89% utilization Between 90-99% utilization Between 100-109% utilization 110% utilization or higher

Optimal Capacity 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Total: K-4 850 913 906 926 894 867 849 851 847 816 815 819 812 802 786 774 Total: 5-6 414 404 440 430 439 418 395 382 363 390 386 360 367 370 372 370 Total: 7-8 798 462 455 423 441 437 450 427 402 389 370 401 400 373 381 385 Total: K-8 2062 1779 1801 1779 1774 1722 1694 1660 1612 1595 1571 1580 1579 1545 1539 1529

Winnetka District 36: Total District Forecasted Enrollment

Note: Green cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historic data. Blue cells (2017-18 and later) are forecasted years

Config Optimal Capacity 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Total: K-4 850 107% 107% 109% 105% 102% 100% 100% 100% 96% 96% 96% 96% 94% 92% 91% Total: 5-6 414 98% 106% 104% 106% 101% 95% 92% 88% 94% 93% 87% 89% 89% 90% 89% Total: 7-8 798 58% 57% 53% 55% 55% 56% 54% 50% 49% 46% 50% 50% 47% 48% 48% Total: K-8 2062 86% 87% 86% 86% 84% 82% 81% 78% 77% 76% 76% 77% 75% 75% 74%

Winnetka District 36: Forecasted Utilization

22

SLIDE 23

Building Utilization (Optimal)

Individual school utilization forecasts were analyzed as shown below.
Tables were color-coded to visualize how utilization changes over time:
Blue: < 70%
Green: 70%-89%
Yellow: 90%-99%
Orange: 110-109%
Red: 110% or higher

Below 70% utilization Between 70-89% utilization Between 90-99% utilization Between 100-109% utilization 110% utilization or higher

School Name Optimal Capacity Grade Config 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Enrollment 342 348 370 385 385 381 375 368 345 346 347 344 340 335 331 Utilization 112% 114% 121% 126% 126% 125% 123% 120% 113% 113% 113% 112% 111% 109% 108% Enrollment 279 271 279 266 241 224 228 227 211 213 215 213 211 207 205 Utilization 103% 100% 103% 98% 89% 82% 84% 83% 78% 78% 79% 78% 78% 76% 75% Enrollment 292 287 277 243 241 244 248 252 260 256 257 255 251 244 238 Utilization 107% 106% 102% 89% 89% 90% 91% 93% 96% 94% 94% 94% 92% 90% 88% Enrollment 404 440 430 439 418 395 382 363 390 386 360 367 370 372 370 Utilization 98% 106% 104% 106% 101% 95% 92% 88% 94% 93% 87% 89% 89% 90% 89% Enrollment 462 455 423 441 437 450 427 402 389 370 401 400 373 381 385 Utilization 58% 57% 53% 55% 55% 56% 54% 50% 49% 46% 50% 50% 47% 48% 48% 7-8 Utilization Forecast by School (2016-17 grade cohorts) Crow Island Elementary 306 K-4 Greeley Elementary 272 K-4 Hubbard Woods Elementary 272 K-4 Skokie School 414 5-6 Washburne School 798

23

SLIDE 24

Planning Model Development

Next Steps

Cropper will work

with the District to analyze and assess potential relief strategies.

A series of planning

models will be created to understand the long- term impacts of a change.

24

SLIDE 25

Questions?

25

SLIDE 26

Detailed study tables, maps, and figures

26

SLIDE 27

Data Collected from multiple sources included:

School District – Official enrollment counts by

school by grade, along with enrollment databases by

address. Data from transportation systems, school

locations, facility information

City / County Sources– Base GIS data (address pts,

municipalities, housing permit activity, etc.)

Internal Revenue Service (IRS) – In/Out Migration

data.

U.S. Census Bureau – 2010 Population/Housing data

27

SLIDE 28

Data Analysis:

Data collected was analyzed in the form of maps and tables to help gain a clear understanding of various trends that are affecting enrollment within the district. Components of the analysis include…..

28

SLIDE 29

Student migration analysis (Live/Attend Mapping) :

Analysis of where students live vs. attend school within the district.

29

SLIDE 30

Live Attend Analysis

30

SLIDE 31

“To truly understand the complex enrollment patterns of any school district, an examination of the past, present and future demographic trends of the area is required”

Demographic Study & Enrollment Forecasts

Forecast Methodology

31

SLIDE 32

Methodology Three Main Steps:

1. Identify pertinent census tracts and census blocks to collect necessary SF1, SF3 and SF4 detailed Census information 2. Calculate a total population forecast for geographic study area with the Cohort- Component Method 3. Calculate enrollment forecast using modified average survivorship methods

32

SLIDE 33

Methodology, continued

Factors Considered in Forecasts Include

1. Number of women of child bearing age 2. Change in area mortality rates 3. Magnitude & prevalence of out migration patterns by age 4. Magnitude & prevalence of in migration patterns 5. Considerations determined by local neighborhood factors

1,200 600 600 1,200

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

Demographic Study & Enrollment Forecasts

33

SLIDE 34

Results of Demographic Study include:

10-year population forecast by age-cohort
10-year enrollment forecast by grade, or by school by grade
Robust demographic data as a result of the study including

housing, population, and age specific information.

U.S. Census Bureau – 2010 Population/Housing data

34

SLIDE 35

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

Crow Island Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

35

SLIDE 36

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

Greeley Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

36

SLIDE 37

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

Hubbard Woods Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

37

SLIDE 38

Population and Household Characteristics

HH w/ Pop Under 18 % HH w/ Pop Under 18 Total Households Household Population Persons Per Household

Crow Island 720 47.7% 1508 4538 3.01 Greeley 496 46.8% 1059 3177 3.00 Hubbard Woods 615 44.1% 1396 4091 2.93 District Total 1831 46.2% 3963 11806 2.98

Table 2: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

2010 2015 2010-2015 Change 2020 2015-2020 Change 2010-2020 Change

Crow Island 4,542 4,530

0.3%

4,590 1.3% 1.1% Greeley 3,177 3,150

0.9%

3,110

1.3%
2.1%

Hubbard Woods 4,091 4,030

1.5%

3,990

1.0%
2.5%

District Total 11,810 11,710

0.9%

11,690

0.2%
1.0%

Table 1: Forecasted Elementary Area Population Change, 2010 to 2020

Percentage of Householders aged 35-54 Percentage of Householders aged 65+ Percentage of Householders Who Own Homes

Crow Island 48.6% 24.5% 88.7% Greeley 48.4% 25.4% 93.1% Hubbard Woods 45.3% 28.5% 88.2% District Total 47.4% 26.2% 89.7%

Table 3: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

38

SLIDE 39

Population and Household Characteristics

Percentage of Single Person Households Percentage of Single Person Households and are 65+

Crow Island 16.0% 8.3% Greeley 15.7% 9.0% Hubbard Woods 19.3% 10.7% District Total 17.1% 9.3%

Table 4: Percentage of Households that are Single Person Households and Single Person Households that are over age 65 by Elementary Area , 2010 Census

2011 2016 2010-2015 Change 2021 2016- 2021 2010-2020 Change Crow Island 342 381 11.4% 347

8.9%

1.5% Greeley 279 224

19.7%

215

4.0%
22.9%

Hubbard Woods 292 244

16.4%

257 5.3%

12.0%

District Total 913 849

7.0%

819

3.5%
10.3%

Table 5: Total Elementary (K to 4) Enrollment, 2011, 2016, 2021

39

SLIDE 40

Enrollment Forecasts

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 K 133 139 152 157 132 135 139 136 138 135 137 134 133 131 131 134 1 178 174 173 172 191 163 165 165 162 162 159 157 153 150 148 146 2 188 186 188 180 168 197 167 169 169 167 169 165 162 158 155 153 3 189 204 195 196 177 174 201 170 172 173 173 175 171 168 164 161 4 225 203 218 189 199 180 179 207 175 178 181 181 183 179 176 172 Total: K-4 913 906 926 894 867 849 851 847 816 815 819 812 802 786 774 766 5 201 223 204 224 201 202 184 183 211 179 183 186 186 188 184 181 6 203 217 226 215 217 193 198 180 179 207 177 181 184 184 186 182 Total:5-6 404 440 430 439 418 395 382 363 390 386 360 367 370 372 370 363 7 250 206 216 224 220 227 197 202 184 183 213 182 186 190 190 192 8 212 249 207 217 217 223 230 200 205 187 188 218 187 191 195 195 Total: 7-8 462 455 423 441 437 450 427 402 389 370 401 400 373 381 385 387 Total: K-8 1779 1801 1779 1774 1722 1694 1660 1612 1595 1571 1580 1579 1545 1539 1529 1516 Total: K-8 1779 1801 1779 1774 1722 1694 1660 1612 1595 1571 1580 1579 1545 1539 1529 1516 Change 22

22
5
52
28
34
48
17
24

9

1
34
6
10
13

%-Change 1.2%

1.2%
0.3%
2.9%
1.6%
2.0%
2.9%
1.1%
1.5%

0.6%

0.1%
2.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.9%

Total: K-4 913 906 926 894 867 849 851 847 816 815 819 812 802 786 774 766 Change

7

20

32
27
18

2

4
31
1

4

7
10
16
12
8

%-Change

0.8%

2.2%

3.5%
3.0%
2.1%

0.2%

0.5%
3.7%
0.1%

0.5%

0.9%
1.2%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%

Total: 5-6 404 440 430 439 418 395 382 363 390 386 360 367 370 372 370 363 Change 36

10

9

21
23
13
19

27

4
26

7 3 2

2
7

%-Change 8.9%

2.3%

2.1%

4.8%
5.5%
3.3%
5.0%

7.4%

1.0%
6.7%

1.9% 0.8% 0.5%

0.5%
1.9%

Total: 7-8 462 455 423 441 437 450 427 402 389 370 401 400 373 381 385 387 Change

7
32

18

4

13

23
25
13
19

31

1
27

8 4 2 %-Change

1.5%
7.0%

4.3%

0.9%

3.0%

5.1%
5.9%
3.2%
4.9%

8.4%

0.2%
6.8%

2.1% 1.0% 0.5% Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historic data Blue Cells(2017-8 and later) are forecasted years

Winnetka Public Schools: Total District Enrollment

40

SLIDE 41

Enrollment Forecasts

41

SLIDE 42

Enrollment Forecasts

42

SLIDE 43

Enrollment Forecasts

43

SLIDE 44

Enrollment Forecasts

44

SLIDE 45

Enrollment Forecasts

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 K 52 62 72 78 59 64 63 62 62 61 62 61 60 59 59 60 1 74 67 70 77 91 67 70 70 69 69 68 67 66 65 64 64 2 63 76 75 74 77 91 68 71 71 70 70 69 68 67 66 65 3 73 68 80 79 76 79 93 69 72 72 72 72 71 70 69 68 4 80 75 73 77 82 80 81 96 71 74 75 75 75 74 73 72 Total: K-4 342 348 370 385 385 381 375 368 345 346 347 344 340 335 331 329 Total: K-4 342 348 370 385 385 381 375 368 345 346 347 344 340 335 331 329 Change 6 22 15

4
6
7
23

1 1

3
4
5
4
2

%-Change 1.8% 6.3% 4.1% 0.0%

1.0%
1.6%
1.9%
6.3%

0.3% 0.3%

0.9%
1.2%
1.5%
1.2%
0.6%

Crow Island Elementary

Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historic data Blue Cells (2017-18 and later) are forecasted years 45

SLIDE 46

Enrollment Forecasts

46

SLIDE 47

Enrollment Forecasts

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 K 53 34 41 47 34 33 35 34 35 34 35 34 34 34 34 35 1 53 64 49 48 58 42 43 43 42 42 41 41 40 39 39 38 2 49 59 64 48 44 60 43 44 44 44 45 43 43 42 41 41 3 50 59 60 65 43 45 61 44 45 46 46 47 45 45 44 43 4 74 55 65 58 62 44 46 62 45 47 48 48 49 47 47 46 Total: K-4 279 271 279 266 241 224 228 227 211 213 215 213 211 207 205 203 Total: K-4 279 271 279 266 241 224 228 227 211 213 215 213 211 207 205 203 Change

8

8

13
25
17

4

1
16

2 2

2
2
4
2
2

%-Change

2.9%

3.0%

4.7%
9.4%
7.1%

1.8%

0.4%
7.0%

0.9% 0.9%

0.9%
0.9%
1.9%
1.0%
1.0%

Greeley Elementary

Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historic data Blue Cells (2017-18 and later) are forecasted years 47

SLIDE 48

Enrollment Forecasts

48

SLIDE 49

Enrollment Forecasts

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 K 28 43 39 32 39 38 41 40 41 40 40 39 39 38 38 39 1 51 43 54 47 42 54 52 52 51 51 50 49 47 46 45 44 2 76 51 49 58 47 46 56 54 54 53 54 53 51 49 48 47 3 66 77 55 52 58 50 47 57 55 55 55 56 55 53 51 50 4 71 73 80 54 55 56 52 49 59 57 58 58 59 58 56 54 Total: K-4 292 287 277 243 241 244 248 252 260 256 257 255 251 244 238 234 Total: K-4 292 287 277 243 241 244 248 252 260 256 257 255 251 244 238 234 Change

5
10
34
2

3 4 4 8

4

1

2
4
7
6
4

%-Change

1.7%
3.5%
12.3%
0.8%

1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 3.2%

1.5%

0.4%

0.8%
1.6%
2.8%
2.5%
1.7%

Hubbard Woods Elementary

Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historic data Blue Cells (2017-18 and later) are forecasted years 49

SLIDE 50

Enrollment Forecasts

50

SLIDE 51

Enrollment Forecasts

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 5 201 223 204 224 201 202 184 183 211 179 183 186 186 188 184 181 6 203 217 226 215 217 193 198 180 179 207 177 181 184 184 186 182 Total: 5-6 404 440 430 439 418 395 382 363 390 386 360 367 370 372 370 363 Total: 5-6 404 440 430 439 418 395 382 363 390 386 360 367 370 372 370 363 Change 36

10

9

21
23
13
19

27

4
26

7 3 2

2
7

%-Change 8.9%

2.3%

2.1%

4.8%
5.5%
3.3%
5.0%

7.4%

1.0%
6.7%

1.9% 0.8% 0.5%

0.5%
1.9%

The Skokie School

Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historic data Blue Cells (2017-18 and later) are forecasted years 51

SLIDE 52

Enrollment Forecasts

52

SLIDE 53

Enrollment Forecasts

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 7 250 206 216 224 220 227 197 202 184 183 213 182 186 190 190 192 8 212 249 207 217 217 223 230 200 205 187 188 218 187 191 195 195 Total: 7-8 462 455 423 441 437 450 427 402 389 370 401 400 373 381 385 387 Total: 7-8 462 455 423 441 437 450 427 402 389 370 401 400 373 381 385 387 Change

7
32

18

4

13

23
25
13
19

31

1
27

8 4 2 %-Change

1.5%
7.0%

4.3%

0.9%

3.0%

5.1%
5.9%
3.2%
4.9%

8.4%

0.2%
6.8%

2.1% 1.0% 0.5%

Carleton Washburne School

Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2016-17 and earlier) are historic data Blue Cells (2017-18 and later) are forecasted years 53

SLIDE 54

Enrollment Forecasts

54

SLIDE 55

The Five Data sets used to develop population forecasts:

1. A base-year population (here, the 2010 Census population for Winnetka

Schools and all of its geographical areas i.e. School Attendance Areas);

2. A set of age-specific fertility rates for each small area to be used over the

forecast period;

3. A set of age-specific survival (mortality) rates for each small area;
4. A set of age-specific migration rates for each small area;
5. Historical enrollment figures by grade for all facilities to be projected.

55

SLIDE 56

Population Forecasts

Males 2010 2015 2020 2025 Females 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 to 2015 2015 to 2020 2020 to 2025 0-4 323 300 300 280 0-4 327 300 300 260 0-4 650 600 600 540 Births 240 250 230 5-9 601 550 530 500 5-9 549 560 520 500 5-9 1,150 1,110 1,050 1,000 Deaths 450 460 480 10-14 746 630 580 560 10-14 670 580 580 550 10-14 1,416 1,210 1,160 1,110 Natural Increase

210
210
250

15-19 559 650 550 500 15-19 518 580 500 500 15-19 1,077 1,230 1,050 1,000 Net Migration 150 140 130 20-24 144 160 180 140 20-24 127 120 110 90 20-24 271 280 290 230 Change

60
70
120

25-29 95 90 120 140 25-29 76 80 80 70 25-29 171 170 200 210 30-34 92 140 150 170 30-34 108 110 130 120 30-34 200 250 280 290 35-39 203 230 270 270 35-39 276 250 250 250 35-39 479 480 520 520 40-44 426 320 360 390 40-44 490 400 370 360 40-44 916 720 730 750 45-49 554 480 370 430 45-49 618 550 450 450 45-49 1,172 1,030 820 880 50-54 535 550 480 370 50-54 554 610 550 450 50-54 1,089 1,160 1,030 820 55-59 453 510 530 450 55-59 469 550 600 530 55-59 922 1,060 1,130 980 60-64 361 380 480 490 60-64 329 410 510 570 60-64 690 790 990 1,060 65-69 237 300 330 410 65-69 247 270 360 460 65-69 484 570 690 870 70-74 152 170 220 250 70-74 197 190 220 300 70-74 349 360 440 550 75-79 148 80 100 150 75-79 196 130 130 160 75-79 344 210 230 310 80-84 118 90 60 60 80-84 132 150 110 100 80-84 250 240 170 160 85+ 69 90 110 90 85+ 111 150 190 190 85+ 180 240 300 280 Total 5,816 5,720 5,720 5,650 Total 5,994 5,990 5,960 5,910 Total 11,810 11,710 11,680 11,560 Median Age 42.7 43.6 44.7 45.7

Winnetka Public Schools: Total Population

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2010) are Census Data Blue Cells (2015 to 2025) are forecasted years

56

SLIDE 57

Population Forecasts

Males 2010 2015 2020 2025 Females 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 to 2015 2015 to 2020 2020 to 2025 0-4 141 130 130 130 0-4 147 130 130 120 0-4 288 260 260 250 Births 110 110 100 5-9 227 240 220 210 5-9 206 240 210 210 5-9 433 480 430 420 Deaths 160 160 170 10-14 284 240 250 230 10-14 254 220 250 220 10-14 538 460 500 450 Natural Increase

50
50
70

15-19 225 250 210 220 15-19 198 220 190 220 15-19 423 470 400 440 Net Migration 60 50 50 20-24 59 70 80 70 20-24 58 50 50 50 20-24 117 120 130 120 Change 10

20

25-29 27 40 60 60 25-29 31 40 30 30 25-29 58 80 90 90 30-34 43 50 60 80 30-34 54 50 60 50 30-34 97 100 120 130 35-39 80 90 90 100 35-39 103 100 90 100 35-39 183 190 180 200 40-44 160 120 120 120 40-44 184 140 130 120 40-44 344 260 250 240 45-49 220 180 140 140 45-49 245 210 170 150 45-49 465 390 310 290 50-54 211 220 180 140 50-54 213 240 210 170 50-54 424 460 390 310 55-59 168 200 210 170 55-59 172 210 240 200 55-59 340 410 450 370 60-64 134 140 180 190 60-64 123 150 190 220 60-64 257 290 370 410 65-69 79 110 120 150 65-69 96 100 130 170 65-69 175 210 250 320 70-74 51 50 80 90 70-74 76 70 80 110 70-74 127 120 160 200 75-79 60 20 30 50 75-79 71 50 50 60 75-79 131 70 80 110 80-84 43 30 20 20 80-84 45 50 40 40 80-84 88 80 60 60 85+ 21 30 40 30 85+ 33 50 60 70 85+ 54 80 100 100 Total 2,233 2,210 2,220 2,200 Total 2,309 2,320 2,310 2,310 Total 4,542 4,530 4,530 4,510 Median Age 41.9 42.0 43.1 43.2

Crow Island Elementary

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2010) are Census Data Blue Cells (2015 to 2025) are forecasted years

57

SLIDE 58

Population Forecasts

Males 2010 2015 2020 2025 Females 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 to 2015 2015 to 2020 2020 to 2025 0-4 84 80 70 60 0-4 89 80 70 60 0-4 173 160 140 120 Births 50 60 60 5-9 156 130 120 110 5-9 141 140 120 110 5-9 297 270 240 220 Deaths 120 130 140 10-14 197 160 140 130 10-14 185 150 140 130 10-14 382 310 280 260 Natural Increase

70
70
80

15-19 152 170 150 120 15-19 150 160 130 120 15-19 302 330 280 240 Net Migration 40 30 30 20-24 35 40 50 40 20-24 31 40 40 30 20-24 66 80 90 70 Change

30
40
50

25-29 25 20 30 40 25-29 9 20 30 30 25-29 34 40 60 70 30-34 18 40 40 50 30-34 28 20 40 40 30-34 46 60 80 90 35-39 63 60 70 70 35-39 72 70 50 70 35-39 135 130 120 140 40-44 104 90 90 100 40-44 132 100 100 80 40-44 236 190 190 180 45-49 158 120 120 120 45-49 169 150 130 130 45-49 327 270 250 250 50-54 145 160 120 120 50-54 159 170 150 130 50-54 304 330 270 250 55-59 118 140 150 110 55-59 136 160 160 140 55-59 254 300 310 250 60-64 105 100 130 140 60-64 97 120 150 160 60-64 202 220 280 300 65-69 64 90 90 120 65-69 66 80 110 140 65-69 130 170 200 260 70-74 50 50 70 70 70-74 51 50 70 90 70-74 101 100 140 160 75-79 34 30 30 50 75-79 54 30 40 50 75-79 88 60 70 100 80-84 35 30 20 20 80-84 26 50 30 30 80-84 61 80 50 50 85+ 12 20 30 30 85+ 27 30 50 50 85+ 39 50 80 80 Total 1,555 1,530 1,520 1,500 Total 1,622 1,620 1,610 1,590 Total 3,177 3,150 3,130 3,090 Median Age 43.3 45.1 46.7 48.1

Greeley Elementary

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2010) are Census Data Blue Cells (2015 to 2025) are forecasted years

58

SLIDE 59

Population Forecasts

Males 2010 2015 2020 2025 Females 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 to 2015 2015 to 2020 2020 to 2025 0-4 98 90 100 90 0-4 91 90 100 80 0-4 189 180 200 170 Births 80 80 70 5-9 218 180 190 180 5-9 202 180 190 180 5-9 420 360 380 360 Deaths 170 170 170 10-14 265 230 190 200 10-14 231 210 190 200 10-14 496 440 380 400 Natural Increase

90
90
100

15-19 182 230 190 160 15-19 170 200 180 160 15-19 352 430 370 320 Net Migration 50 60 50 20-24 50 50 50 30 20-24 38 30 20 10 20-24 88 80 70 40 Change

40
30
50

25-29 43 30 30 40 25-29 36 20 20 10 25-29 79 50 50 50 30-34 31 50 50 40 30-34 26 40 30 30 30-34 57 90 80 70 35-39 60 80 110 100 35-39 101 80 110 80 35-39 161 160 220 180 40-44 162 110 150 170 40-44 174 160 140 160 40-44 336 270 290 330 45-49 176 180 110 170 45-49 204 190 150 170 45-49 380 370 260 340 50-54 179 170 180 110 50-54 182 200 190 150 50-54 361 370 370 260 55-59 167 170 170 170 55-59 161 180 200 190 55-59 328 350 370 360 60-64 122 140 170 160 60-64 109 140 170 190 60-64 231 280 340 350 65-69 94 100 120 140 65-69 85 90 120 150 65-69 179 190 240 290 70-74 51 70 70 90 70-74 70 70 70 100 70-74 121 140 140 190 75-79 54 30 40 50 75-79 71 50 40 50 75-79 125 80 80 100 80-84 40 30 20 20 80-84 61 50 40 30 80-84 101 80 60 50 85+ 36 40 40 30 85+ 51 70 80 70 85+ 87 110 120 100 Total 2,028 1,980 1,980 1,950 Total 2,063 2,050 2,040 2,010 Total 4,091 4,030 4,020 3,960 Median Age 43.0 44.2 44.5 45.9

Hubbard Woods Elementary

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

Forecasts Developed October 2016 Green Cells (2010) are Census Data Blue Cells (2015 to 2025) are forecasted years

59

SLIDE 60

Live Attend Analysis

Where K-4 Students Live C r

w

I s l a n d G r e e l e y H u b b a r d W

d

s O u t

f

D i s t r i c t U n m a t c h e d L i v e O u t A t t e n d I n 378 236 246 8 1 Crow Island 386 376 1 3 5 1 10 Greeley School 237 1 233 3 4 Hubbard Woods 246 1 2 243 3 Live In Attend Out 2 3 3 Where K-4 Students Attend

Live Attend Matrix

60