M ECKLENBURG C OUNTY IN D EMOGRAPHIC T RANSITION : I SSUES S HAPING F - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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M ECKLENBURG C OUNTY IN D EMOGRAPHIC T RANSITION : I SSUES S HAPING F UTURE G ROWTH AND C HANGE Owen J. Furuseth, Ph.D. Associate Provost for Metropolitan Studies and Extended Academic Programs The University of North Carolina at Charlotte


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Mecklenburg County Commission Workshop Charlotte-Mecklenburg Government Center May 13, 2014

MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: ISSUES SHAPING FUTURE GROWTH AND CHANGE

Owen J. Furuseth, Ph.D.

Associate Provost for Metropolitan Studies and Extended Academic Programs The University of North Carolina at Charlotte

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Framework for the Discussion

Demographic Megatrends “The Great State of Mecklenburg” Mecklenburg County’s Role in 21st Century North Carolina The Mecklenburg County vs. Wake County Comparison Neighborhoods Matter: Demographic Markers and the Future

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Demographic Megatrends

National and international population changes reshape social, economic, and civic life in U.S.A. Multiscalar Impacts: national, state, local Represent opportunities and challenges to decision- makers and community leaders

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Demographic Megatrends

Graying of America (The Population Pyramid becomes a Rectangle)

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5 Source: The Pew Research Center, The Next America.

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6 Source: The Pew Research Center, The Next America.

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7 Source: The Pew Research Center, The Next America.

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Demographic Megatrends

Graying of America (The Population Pyramid becomes a Rectangle) Immigration Driving Demographic Makeover

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9 Source: The Pew Research Center, The Next America.

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America’s 21st Century Demographic Frame

2005-2050, U.S. population growth (48%) 438 million 82% growth immigrants and their descendants Foreign-Born Population in 2011

  • Mexico (29%)
  • India (4.6%)
  • Philippines (4.5%)
  • China (4.1%)
  • Vietnam (3.1%)
  • El Salvador (3.1%)
  • Korea (2.7%)

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Immigrant Overview for Mecklenburg County, 2012 (Foreign-Born equals Immigrant)

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Total Foreign-Born 13.6% (128,879) Region of Birth Latin America 51.5% Asia 27.3% Europe 10.9% Africa 8.4% North America (Canada) 1.4% Oceania 0.4% Entered U.S. Before 2000 50.7% 2000-2009 43.4% 2010 or later 5.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-year estimates (2010-2012).

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Demographic Megatrends

Graying of America (The Population Pyramid becomes a Rectangle) Immigration Driving Demographic Makeover Browning of America

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13 Source: The Pew Research Center, The Next America.

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2012 Census Bureau – Mecklenburg County became a majority minority county

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Charlotte: Old South to New South City Demographic Megatrends

100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 1980 1990 2000 2010

.076%

1.8% 3.7% 5.1% .098% 1.4% 7.8% 13.1% 31.3% 31.8% 33.0% 34.2% 67.5% 65.6% 55.9% 45.1% White African-American Hispanic Asian

395,934 315,474 540,828 734,418 (17)

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“The Great State of Mecklenburg”

Political dismissive – pejorative cliché Current and future demographic directions Mecklenburg’s growing dominance and trendsetting

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Mecklenburg County vs. State Population Trends

16 Source: Office of State Management & Budget, Population Estimates and Projections, accessed April 21, 2014.

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Population 511,211 695,370 923,390 1,138,336 1,335,238 County Growth Rate 36.0% 32.8% 23.3% 17.3% NC Growth Rate 21.3% 18.9% 10.9% 10.0% Proportion of State Population 7.7% 8.6% 9.6% 10.7% 11.6%

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17 Source: John Chesser, “UNC Charlotte story.”

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Population Change: Takeaways

North Carolina ranked 12th (3.28%) Half of all the growth since 2010 in Wake and Mecklenburg counties (145,000) Half the counties in North Carolina lost population Mecklenburg County grew faster than any county in the region Charlotte MSA 5th largest destination for domestic migration

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Demographic Megatrends

Mecklenburg County is “youngest” county in the region

19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, population estimates.

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Demographic Megatrends

Mecklenburg County among lowest dependency ratios in the State

20 Source: Dr. James H. Johnson, Jr., “Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Workforce Planning and Development,” September 2012.

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21 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year estimates.

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College-level Educational Attainment: Take-Aways

Mecklenburg population is well above national averages Regional counties are still below the NC average Mecklenburg and Wake Counties lifting state-level educational attainment base

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Mecklenburg County vs. Wake County Population Trends (percentage change)

23 Source: Office of State Management & Budget, Population Estimates and Projections, accessed April 21, 2014.

Mecklenburg County Wake County 1990 511,211 426,311 2000 695,370 (36.0%) 627,846 (42.3%) 2010 923,390 (32.8%) 900,993 (43.5%) 2020 1,138,336 (23.3%) 1,111,847 (23.4%) 2030 1,335,238 (17.3%) 1,320,437 (18.8%)

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Where will Population Growth Occur?

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Geographic Realities: Mecklenburg vs. Wake County

In both, Mecklenburg and Wake County, suburban growth patterns are significant Mirroring other growing metropolitan regions, suburban growth is higher income and lower minority Wake County is 59.4% larger geographically than Mecklenburg County If Wake County was approximate to Mecklenburg County, out-

  • f-county suburban growth

would be greater

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Population Growth and Developable Land

26 Source: Office of State Management & Budget, Population Estimates and Projections, accessed April 21, 2014.

Mecklenburg County Wake County Population (July 2014 estimate) 1,008,193 986,692 Population Growth (2014-2030) 34.4% 33.8% Land Area 523.84 sq. miles 835.22 sq. miles Local Governments 7 13 Land Area in Urban Areas (2012) 406.76 sq. miles 300.00 sq. miles Developable Non-Urban Land 117.08 sq. miles 535.22 sq. miles Project Population Growth (2014-2030) 347,045 333,745

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Population Growth and Developable Land: Take-Aways

Wake County growth on undeveloped land Mecklenburg County growth in mix of undeveloped land and redeveloped areas All municipalities in Mecklenburg County active local plans to strengthen downtowns and neighborhoods Existing neighborhoods matter for future

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Charlotte-Mecklenburg Quality of Life Study: Toolbox for Neighborhood Enhancement

Initiated in 2012, biennial schedule Partnership with Mecklenburg County, City of Charlotte, six towns 464 neighborhood geographies (NPA – Neighborhood Profile Areas) Mean population: 1,900 8 Data Dimensions 82 individual variables

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Median Household Income: Lower Income Crescent

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Single Family Property Value

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Median Household Income and Single Family Residential Property Value

Median Household Income Single Family Residential Property Value

R-Squared: 0.551704 p-value (significance): < 0.0001

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Median Household Income and Residential Renovation Permits

R-Squared: 0.211397 p-value (significance): < 0.0001

Median Household Income Residential Renovation Building Permits

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Median Household Income and New Residential Building Permits

R-Squared: 0.0066472 p-value (significance): 0.239438

Median Household Income New Residential Building Permits

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Median Household Income and New Building Permits

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Hot Pockets of New Residential Building Permits

Higher Income NPA Lower Income NPA 35

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Demographic Neighborhood Change Processes

Follow broad theoretic models Multi-scalar impacts Neighborhood Quality of Life Assessment Tool

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Presentation is available at: www.mseap.uncc.edu/presentations

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