Affordable Housing Study Detailed Analysis of ACS Data: What Can We - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Arlington County Affordable Housing Study

Detailed Analysis of ACS Data:

What Can We Learn About Current Housing Needs in Arlington?

March 27, 2014

Frederi derickpoll

polls

Where are the numbers from?

The Census’s annual American Community Survey and the Census’s Decennial Long Form Survey

– Data Formats

• Summary File Data
• Microdata

– Years

• 1-year
• 3-year

What do we know about population change in Arlington?

• What age group has grown the fastest in

Arlington since 2000?

• What jurisdiction has the highest share of

25-34 year olds? 65+ year olds?

What do we know about population change in Arlington?

• What age group has grown the fastest in

Arlington since 2000?

– 65-74 year olds: +50% – 55-64 year olds: +49%

• What jurisdiction has the highest share of

25-34 year olds? 65+ year olds?

– Arlington: 28%

Percent Change by Age Group, Arlington, 2000 to 2012

16%

• 11%

31% 13%

• 1%

49% 50%

• 24%
• 1%
• 30%
• 10%

10% 30% 50% <18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Total: 16.7%

Share of Population Aged 25-34 Years Old, 2012

28% 22% 14% 15% 24% 16%

• 5%

5% 15% 25% 35% = 62,900 People

Share of Population Aged 65 Years Old or Older, 2012

8.9% 11.4% 12.9% 10.7% 10.0% 10.6% 0% 10% 20% = 19,700 People

What do we know about population change in Arlington?

• Has the non-white (non-Hispanic)

population increased or decreased in Arlington?

• In what jurisdiction has the non-white

(non-Hispanic) population increased the fastest?

What do we know about population change in Arlington?

• Has the non-white (non-Hispanic) population

increased or decreased in Arlington?

– Increased by 8% between 2000 and 2012 – Decreased as a share of population; grew more slowly than the white (non-Hispanic) population

• In what jurisdiction has the non-white (non-

Hispanic) population increased the fastest?

– Fairfax: +51%

Percent Change by Race/Ethnicity, Arlington, 2000 to 2012

22% 18%

• 3%
• 10%

10% 30% White, one race, non-Hispanic Non-White, non- Hispanic Hispanic, any race

Total: 16.7% = +7,000 People = +25,800 People = -1,200 People

Share of Population by Race/Ethnicity, Arlington, 2000

White, one race, non- Hispanic 61% Non-White, non- Hispanic 21% Hispanic, any race 19%

= 114,700 People 39,500 People = 35,200 People =

Share of Population by Race/Ethnicity, Arlington, 2012

White, one race, non- Hispanic 64% Non-White, non- Hispanic 21% Hispanic, any race 15%

34,000 People = 46,600 People = = 140,500 People

Share of Population that is Not White (Non-Hispanic)

39% 72% 41% 36% 46% 45% 36% 65% 52% 47% 47% 52% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

2000 2012

Percent Change in Population that is Not White (Non-Hispanic), 2000- 2012

8%

• 1%

48% 51% 17% 41%

• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

What does Arlington’s population change tell us about housing needs?

What do we know about income change in Arlington?

• What share of Arlington households have

incomes less than $15,000? Less than 30% AMI?

– Is that share higher or lower than in other jurisdictions?

• Has the number of households with incomes

less than $60,000 increased or decreased since 2000? What about the number of households with incomes of $200,000 or more?

What do we know about income change in Arlington?

• What share of Arlington households have

incomes less than $15,000? Less than 30% AMI?

– 5% of households have income of less than $15,000 = 4,500 households – 10% of households have incomes lower than 30% AMI = 9,600 households

• Is that share higher or lower than in other

jurisdictions?

– Lower than D.C. but similar to that of Montgomery, Alexandria and Fairfax

What do we know about income change in Arlington?

• Has the number of households with

incomes less than $60,000 increased or decreased since 2000?

– Decreased by 10%

• What about the number of households

with incomes of $200,000 or more?

• Increased by 60%

Share of Households by Household Income (2012 $s), Arlington, 2012

<$15K 5% $15-29K 8% $30-59K 14% $60-79K 11% $80-99K 11% $100-119K 9% $120-149K 12% 150-199K 13% $200-249K 7% $250K+ 11%

Share of Households by Income as a Pct of Area Median Income, Arlington, 2010-2012

<30% AMI 10% 30-49% AMI 7% 50-59% AMI 3% 60-79% AMI 9% 80-99% AMI 10% 100-119% AMI 9% 120+% AMI 51%

Share Households Earning Less than 30% AMI, 2010-2012

10% 23% 11% 9% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% Arlington D.C. Montgomery Fairfax* Alexandria

*Includes the cities of Fairfax & Falls Church

= 9,600 Households

Number of Households by Income Arlington County

27.9 21.6 16.5 9.7 10.9 25.1 20.4 20.1 12.4 17.4

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 <$60K $60-99K $100-149K $150-199K $200+

2000 2012 (2012 $s) (000s )

What do income changes tell us about housing needs in Arlington?

What do we know about housing costs in Arlington?

• What share of households spend more

than 30% of income on housing costs?

– How has that share changed since 2000? – How does that share compare with other jurisdictions?

What do we know about housing costs in Arlington?

• What share of households spend more than 30%
• f income on housing costs?

– 39% of renter households = 20,700 households – 24% of owner households = 9,600 households

• How has that share changed since 2000?

– This share has increased for both renters and owners

• How does that share compare with other

jurisdictions?

– Renter households are less housing cost burdened in Arlington as compared to neighboring jurisdictions – Owner households are less housing cost burdened than D.C. and Montgomery, but more burdened than Fairfax and Alexandria.

Share of Renter HHs by Pct of Income Spent on Rent, Arlington County

69% 18% 13% 61% 19% 19%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% <30% 30-49% 50%+

2000 2012 Share of Household Income Spent on Rent

39% = 20,700 Households in 2012

Share of Renter Households Spending over 30% on Rent

31% 38% 37% 31% 32% 39% 49% 52% 46% 47%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Arlington D.C. Montgomery Fairfax Alexandria

2000 2012

Share of Owner HHs by Pct of Income Spent on Select Owner Costs, Arlington County

82% 12% 6% 76% 16% 8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% <30% 30-49% 50%+

2000 2012 Share of Household Income Spent on Select Owner Costs

24% = 9,600 Households in 2012

Share of Owner Households by Spending over 30% on Owner Costs

18% 24% 22% 21% 21% 24% 29% 27% 23% 20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Arlington D.C. Montgomery Fairfax Alexandria

2000 2012

What does cost burden data tell us about housing needs in Arlington? What else do we want to know?

What do we know about who faces the highest cost burdens in Arlington?

• What age group* is most likely to spend 30%
• r more on housing?
• Hispanic households* are more likely than

white households to be cost burdened—how much more?

• What share of persons with disabilities*

spend more than half of their income on rent?

• What share of households below 30% AMI

spend more than half their income on rent?

*The age group, race & ethnicity and disability status that of the head of household

What do we know about who faces the highest cost burdens in Arlington?

• What age group is most likely to spend

30% or more on housing?

– 65% of renters over 65 years old = 2,400 households – 29% of owners under 34 years old = 1,800 households – For both renters and owners combined,

• 38% of those under 34 spend more than 30% of

their income on housing costs = 12,500 households

• 37% of those over 65 spend more than 30% of

their income on housing costs = 4,500 households

What do we know about who faces the highest cost burdens in Arlington?

• Hispanic households are more likely than

white households to be cost burdened— how much more?

– 57% of Hispanic renters are = 3,900 households

• vs 38% of non-Hispanic renters

– 48% of Hispanic owners are = 1,400 households

• vs 21% of non-Hispanic renters

What do we know about who faces the highest cost burdens in Arlington?

• What share of persons with disabilities

spend more than half of their income on rent?

– 58% of disabled renters = 1,800 households – 17% of disabled owners = 400 households

• What share of households below 30% AMI

spend more than half their income on rent?

– 84% of renters = 6,300 – 72% of owners = 900

Share Household Income Spent on Rent, Arlington County, 2010-2012

60% 22% 18% 63% 20% 17% 35% 22% 43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% <30% 30-49% 50%+

18-34 35-64 65+ Share of Household Income Spent on Rent Age of Householder:

Share Household Income Spent on Select Owner Costs, Arlington County, 2010-2012

71% 25% 4% 79% 16% 5% 75% 12% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% <30% 30-49% 50%+

18-34 35-64 65+ Share of Household Income Spent on Select Owner Costs Age of Householder:

Share Household Income Spent on Rent, Arlington County, 2010-2012

64% 22% 14% 62% 19% 20% 52% 23% 25% 43% 20% 37% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% <30% 30-49% 50%+

White alone, Non-Hispanic Asian, Non-Hispanic Black/African American, Non- Hispanic

Share of Household Income Spent on Rent

Race/Ethnicity of Householder:

Share Household Income Spent on Select Owner Costs, Arlington County, 2010-2012

80% 14% 5% 79% 16% 5% 54% 36% 10% 52% 26% 22% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% <30% 30-49% 50%+

White alone, Non-Hispanic Asian, Non-Hispanic Black/African American, Non-Hispanic Hispanic, Any Race

Share of Household Income Spent on Select Owner Costs

Race/Ethnicity of Householder:

Share Household Income Spent on Rent, Arlington County, 2010-2012

28% 14% 58% 62% 22% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% <30% 30-49% 50%+

With Disability W/out Disability Share of Household Income Spent on Rent Householder:

Share Household Income Spent on Select Owner Costs, Arlington County, 2010-2012

63% 22% 15% 78% 16% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% <30% 30-49% 50%+

With Disability W/out Disability Share of Household Income Spent on Select Owner Costs Householder:

Share Household Income Spent on Rent, Arlington County, 2010-2012

9% 6% 84% 68% 24% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% <30% 30-49% 50%+

Income <30% AMI Share of Household Income Spent on Rent Households:

Share Household Income Spent on Select Owner Costs, Arlington County, 2010-2012

9% 19% 72% 79% 16% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% <30% 30-49% 50%+

Income <30% AMI Share of Household Income Spent on Select Owner Costs Households:

What does this data on characteristics of cost burdened households tell us about housing needs in Arlington?

What do we know about people who moved out of Arlington?

• Are out-migrant households more likely to

be lower or higher income?

• After they move out of Arlington, are they

more likely to be renters or owners?

What do we know about people who moved out of Arlington?

• Are out-migrant households more likely to

be lower or higher income?

– They are more likely to have incomes between $60,000 and $149,999 than those who stay in Arlington

• After they move out of Arlington, are they

more likely to be renters or owners?

– They are more likely to rent than those who stay

Share of Out-Migrant Households by Income, 2010-2012

<$60K 25% $60- 99K 28% $100- 149K 27% $150- 199K 10% $200+ 10%

Moved to Outside the Region

<$60K 28% $60- 99K 21% $100- 149K 34% $150- 199K 6% $200+ 11%

Moved to Elsewhere in the Region

Share of Out-Migrant Households by Tenure, 2010-2012

Own 34% Rent 66%

Moved to Outside the Region

Own 32% Rent 68%

Moved to Elsewhere in the Region

What does this data on out- migrants tell us about housing needs in Arlington?

What else do we need to know to better understand housing needs in Arlington?