Pottsgrove Pottsgrove School District School District Enrollment - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Pottsgrove Pottsgrove School District School District Enrollment Projection Study Enrollment Projection Study February 28, 2017 February 28, 2017 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Future Think in operation for over 10

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SLIDE 1

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

Pottsgrove Pottsgrove School District School District

Enrollment Projection Study Enrollment Projection Study February 28, 2017 February 28, 2017

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SLIDE 2

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT FutureThink in operation for over 10 years.

  • Tracy Healy, Owner & President
  • Woman-owned business, EDGE certified
  • Has worked with over 1,000 districts

nationwide

  • Specializes in enrollment projection and

demographic studies

  • Provides a national perspective with

numerous case studies & lessons learned

Our mission is to empower the people and communities with whom we work—enhancing the educational experience through planning.

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SLIDE 3

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT FutureThink Long-Term EP Clients

  • Ohio School Facilities Commission – 18 years
  • Olentangy Local Schools, OH – 18 years
  • Williamsburg-James County City Public

Schools, VA – 10 years

  • North Royalton City Schools, OH – 10 years
  • New Albany-Plain Local Schools, OH – 8

years Several “repeat” customers as well, including Pottsgrove.

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SLIDE 4

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Enrollment Projection Considerations

  • Historical Enrollment
  • Birth Data
  • General Population Demographics
  • Housing Development
  • Survival Ratios

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Pottsgrove School District Historical Enrollment

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SLIDE 5

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Methodology

  • Developed District-Wide Projections First
  • Started with the cohort as primary method
  • Incorporated housing development into the

cohort through development of projection ratios

  • Then Developed By School Projections
  • Compared and Reconciled with District-Wide

Enrollment Projections are both a Science and an Art.

  • pp. 4-7
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SLIDE 6

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Historical Enrollment – over past 10 years, increase of 3%; over last 5 years, approximately 1%.

  • p. 9

Grade 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 K 252 235 255 247 226 243 243 258 253 243 1 249 250 245 277 253 246 256 248 252 258 2 218 241 246 247 266 247 248 251 241 262 3 231 238 236 238 241 267 229 249 253 251 4 207 249 245 248 250 251 255 229 244 253 5 197 238 259 239 236 245 242 255 235 255 6 242 239 241 263 240 246 237 247 257 234 7 236 251 242 248 260 241 241 241 260 257 8 307 241 250 246 254 258 244 243 244 249 9 252 324 244 262 244 249 259 249 239 236 10 276 254 319 248 258 238 254 260 259 243 11 251 223 258 320 241 261 228 251 253 261 12 247 202 275 259 332 241 260 233 256 263 K ‐ 12 Total 3,165 3,185 3,315 3,342 3,301 3,233 3,196 3,214 3,246 3,265

Pottsgrove School District Historical Enrollment

Source: Pottsgrove School District

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SLIDE 7

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Historical Enrollment

  • K-2 – peaked this year at 763
  • 3-5 – peaked in 2012-13 at 763
  • 6-8 – peaked in 2007-08 at 785
  • 9-12 – peaked in 2009-10 at 1,096
  • p. 9

Grade 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 K ‐ 2 719 726 746 771 745 736 747 757 746 763 3 ‐ 5 635 725 740 725 727 763 726 733 732 759 6 ‐ 8 785 731 733 757 754 745 722 731 761 740 9 ‐ 12 1,026 1,003 1,096 1,089 1,075 989 1,001 993 1,007 1,003 K ‐ 12 Total 3,165 3,185 3,315 3,342 3,301 3,233 3,196 3,214 3,246 3,265

Source: Pottsgrove School District

Historical Enrollment by Grade Group Pottsgrove School District

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SLIDE 8

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Birth Counts– low of 237 in 2014. Peaked in 2009 at

  • 304. The 2011 count (this year’s K) was 260.
  • p. 11

Year Lower Pottsgrove Township Upper Pottsgrove Township West Pottsgrove Township Total # of Live Births 2000 148 54 39 241 2001 153 50 43 246 2002 176 75 47 298 2003 151 55 46 252 2004 159 62 43 264 2005 172 63 44 279 2006 178 69 41 288 2007 175 53 61 289 2008 158 65 60 283 2009 176 68 60 304 2010 150 65 61 276 2011 141 70 49 260 2012 151 80 54 285 2013 149 75 48 272 2014 135 59 43 237

Pottsgrove School District Live Birth Count 2000‐2014

Source: Pennsylvania Dept. of Health, Health Statistics & Research

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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Demographics– general indicators of growth and wealth.

  • p. 12

Montgomery County Pennsylvania Per Capita Income $41,699 $28,912 Median Household Income $79,926 $53,115 Persons Below Poverty 6.4% 13.5%

Source: US Census, American Community Survey, 2014 5‐Year Estimates

General Demographic Information 2000 Census 2010 Census 2015 Estimate

Montgomery County 750,977 799,874 812,970 Pottstown Borough 21,859 22,377 22,586 Lower Pottsgrove Township 11,213 12,059 12,153 Upper Pottsgrove Township 4,102 5,315 5,399 West Pottsgrove Township 3,815 3,874 3,890

Total Population

Source: US Census, Census 2000 Summary File 1, 2010 Demographic Profile, 2015 ACS 5‐Year Estimates

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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT ESRI Projections – .6% increase for ages 0-18

  • p. 14

Pottsgrove School District 2016 Estimates 2021 Projections Change 2016‐21 Change 2016‐21 (%) Total Population 21,724 22,151 427 2.0% Age 0‐4 1,433 1,393 ‐40 ‐2.8% Age 5‐9 1,522 1,465 ‐57 ‐3.7% Age 10‐14 1,504 1,588 84 5.6% Age 15‐18 1,074 1,119 45 4.2% Total Age 0‐18 5,533 5,565 32 0.6% Median Age 39.4 40.0 0.6 1.5%

Source: ESRI

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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT ESRI Projections –Income, total family households and family size all projected to increase.

  • p. 15

Pottsgrove School District 2016 Estimates 2021 Projections Change 2016‐21 Change 2016‐21 (%) Median Household Income $79,741 $87,912 $8,171 10.2% Average Household Income $91,562 $99,540 $7,978 8.7% Average Family Size 3.14 3.15 0.01 0.3% Total Family Households 5,875 5,951 76 1.3%

Source: ESRI

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SLIDE 12

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Population Projections, Total Population Growth/Decline Red – <=0% (decline) Orange – 0.1–2% Yellow – 2.1–4% Light Green – 4.1-6% Dark Green – 6%+

  • p. 16
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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Population Projections, Ages 5-18 Growth/Decline Red – <=8%+ (loss) Orange – 7.9–4% (loss) Yellow – 3.9-0% (loss) Light Green – 0.1-4% Medium Green – 4.1-8% Dark Green – 8%+

  • p. 17
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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Population Projections, 2016 Median Age Dark Green – <35 Light Green – 35.1 – 40.0 Yellow – 40.1 – 45.0 Orange – 45.1 – 50.0 Red – >50

  • p. 18
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SLIDE 15

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Population Projections, 2021 Median Age

  • p. 19

Dark Green – <35 Light Green – 35.1 – 40.0 Yellow – 40.1 – 45.0 Orange – 45.1 – 50.0 Red – >50

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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Population Projections, 2016 Median Household Income Red – <$60,000 Orange – $60,001-$70K Yellow – $70,001-$80k Light Green – $80,001-$90k Medium Green – $90,001- $100K Dark Green - >$100,000

  • p. 20
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SLIDE 17

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Population Projections, 2021 Median Household Income

  • p. 21

Red – <$60,000 Orange – $60,001-$70K Yellow – $70,001-$80k Light Green – $80,001-$90k Medium Green – $90,001- $100K Dark Green - >$100,000

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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Building Permits – Total peaked in 2006, but signs

  • f recovery over the past 4 years.
  • p. 22

Year Pottstown Borough Lower Pottsgrove Twp. Upper Pottsgrove Twp. West Pottsgrove Twp. Montgomery County 2006 54 42 48 3 1,911 2007 29 33 40 1 1,599 2008 25 7 37 1,274 2009 4 40 643 2010 26 2 3 879 2011 2 33 1 668 2012 41 7 2 915 2013 46 3 3 1 1,000 2014 21 1 17 892 2015 19 32 1 1,006 2016* 9 14 865

# of Building Permits Issued for Single Family Dwellings

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database * through October 2016

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SLIDE 19

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Housing Development Projects

  • p. 22
  • Saratoga Green – 503 units
  • 171 studio & 1 bedroom apartments
  • 172 two-bedroom apartments
  • 160 three-bedroom townhomes
  • Spring Valley Farms – 178 units
  • 3-4 bedroom homes
  • Upper Pottsgrove – 58 units
  • No approvals in place at this time.
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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Survival Ratios– survival ratios reflect the movement of students, grade by grade, year by year. Survival ratios for grades 1-12 equal or exceed 100% on average, except for 1>2 and 10>11.

  • p. 23

from to birth -> K K->1 1->2 2->3 3->4 4->5 5->6 6->7 7->8 8->9 9->10 10->11 11->12 2007 2008

93.3% 99.2% 96.8% 109.2% 107.8% 115.0% 121.3% 103.7% 102.1% 105.5% 100.8% 80.8% 80.5%

2008 2009

96.6% 104.3% 98.4% 97.9% 102.9% 104.0% 101.3% 101.3% 99.6% 101.2% 98.5% 101.6% 123.3%

2009 2010

88.5% 108.6% 100.8% 96.7% 105.1% 97.6% 101.5% 102.9% 101.7% 104.8% 101.6% 100.3% 100.4%

2010 2011

78.5% 102.4% 96.0% 97.6% 105.0% 95.2% 100.4% 98.9% 102.4% 99.2% 98.5% 97.2% 103.8%

2011 2012

84.1% 108.8% 97.6% 100.4% 104.1% 98.0% 104.2% 100.4% 99.2% 98.0% 97.5% 101.2% 100.0%

2012 2013

85.9% 105.3% 100.8% 92.7% 95.5% 96.4% 96.7% 98.0% 101.2% 100.4% 102.0% 95.8% 99.6%

2013 2014

84.9% 102.1% 98.0% 100.4% 100.0% 100.0% 102.1% 101.7% 100.8% 102.0% 100.4% 98.8% 102.2%

2014 2015

91.7% 97.7% 97.2% 100.8% 98.0% 102.6% 100.8% 105.3% 101.2% 98.4% 104.0% 97.3% 102.0%

2015 2016

93.5% 102.0% 104.0% 104.1% 100.0% 104.5% 99.6% 100.0% 95.8% 96.7% 101.7% 100.8% 104.0% average 88.53% 103.381% 98.85% 100.0% 102.06% 101.5% 103.1% 101.3% 100.5% 100.701% 100.554% 97.080% 101.743% standard deviation 5.405% 3.601% 2.387% 4.425% 3.712% 5.719% 6.713% 2.206% 1.933% 2.851% 1.956% 6.063% 10.199%

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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Projected Enrollment – District-Wide, Most Likely increase of 8%

  • p. 24

Grade 2016‐17 Actual 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 2025‐26 2026‐27 K 243 274 261 228 245 256 255 255 254 253 253 1 258 249 281 268 234 251 262 262 261 260 259 2 262 261 252 284 272 236 255 266 264 264 264 3 251 267 265 255 284 271 236 254 265 264 264 4 253 251 267 265 255 284 271 236 254 265 264 5 255 259 257 273 271 261 291 277 242 260 271 6 234 257 261 259 275 273 263 293 280 244 262 7 257 239 262 266 264 281 279 268 299 285 248 8 249 259 241 264 269 266 283 281 270 301 288 9 236 249 259 240 264 268 266 283 281 270 301 10 243 241 254 264 245 269 274 271 288 286 275 11 261 241 239 251 262 243 267 271 269 286 284 12 263 268 247 245 258 269 249 274 278 276 294 K ‐ 12 Total 3,265 3,315 3,346 3,362 3,398 3,428 3,451 3,491 3,505 3,514 3,527

Pottsgrove School District Projected Enrollment

Source: FutureThink

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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Projected Enrollment Increase of 13 students in Pre-K-2; 40 in grades 3-5; 58 in grades 6-8, and 151 in grades 9-12.

  • p. 24

Grade 2016‐17 Actual 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 2025‐26 2026‐27 K ‐ 2 763 784 794 780 751 743 772 783 779 777 776 3 ‐ 5 759 777 789 793 810 816 798 767 761 789 799 6 ‐ 8 740 755 764 789 808 820 825 842 849 830 798 9 ‐ 12 1,003 999 999 1,000 1,029 1,049 1,056 1,099 1,116 1,118 1,154 K ‐ 12 Total 3,265 3,315 3,346 3,362 3,398 3,428 3,451 3,491 3,505 3,514 3,527

Source: FutureThink

Pottsgrove School District Projected Enrollment by Grade Group

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SLIDE 23

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Projections

  • pp. 25-26

Grade 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17

K 69 68 75 71 62 95 97 105 101 93 1 82 69 67 85 70 86 99 105 99 98 2 61 74 71 77 82 102 94 87 98 102 3 55 67 77 71 80 4 61 61 69 87 76 5 49 71 68 69 84

Total 377 410 427 460 454 283 290 297 298 293 Grade 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 2025‐26 2026‐27

K 103 98 86 92 96 96 96 96 95 95 1 94 104 99 87 93 97 97 97 96 96 2 96 92 102 98 85 92 96 95 95 95

Total 293 294 287 277 274 285 289 288 286 286

West Pottsgrove Elementary School Historical Enrollment

Source: Pottsgove School District

West Pottsgrove Elementary School Projected Enrollment ‐ Most Likely

Source: FutureThink

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SLIDE 24

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Projections

  • pp. 25-26

Grade 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17

K 51 63 48 50 54 148 146 153 152 150 1 57 57 68 62 61 160 157 143 153 160 2 64 60 55 60 62 145 154 164 143 160 3 62 69 60 55 59 4 60 70 70 61 56 5 64 68 73 63 60

Total 358 387 374 351 352 453 457 460 448 470 Grade 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 2025‐26 2026‐27

K 171 163 142 153 160 159 159 158 158 158 1 155 177 169 147 158 165 165 164 164 163 2 165 160 182 174 151 163 170 169 169 169

Total 491 500 493 474 469 487 494 491 491 490

Source: FutureThink

Projected Enrollment ‐ Most Likely Ringing Rocks Elementary School Historical Enrollment

Source: Pottsgove School District

Ringing Rocks Elementary School

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SLIDE 25

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Projections

  • pp. 25-26

Grade 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17

K 132 104 132 126 110 1 110 124 110 130 122 2 93 107 120 110 122 3 114 102 99 112 102 267 229 249 253 251 4 86 118 106 100 118 251 255 229 244 253 5 84 99 118 107 92 245 242 255 235 255

Total 619 654 685 685 666 763 726 733 732 759 Grade 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 2025‐26 2026‐27

3 267 265 255 284 271 236 254 265 264 264 4 251 267 265 255 284 271 236 254 265 264 5 259 257 273 271 261 291 277 242 260 271

Total 777 789 793 810 816 798 767 761 789 799

Lower Pottsgrove Elementary School Historical Enrollment

Source: Pottsgove School District

Lower Pottsgrove Elementary School Projected Enrollment ‐ Most Likely

Source: FutureThink

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POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Enrollment Projections – Low, Moderate, High

  • p. 28
  • Low Projection
  • Higher inflation/interest rates than current market
  • Low yield rate for new housing (.25 student per unit)
  • Offsets what would be natural decline
  • Most Likely (Moderate) Projection
  • Steady inflation/interest rates (similar to current market)
  • Moderate yield rate for new housing (.5 to .6 student per

unit)

  • Increased student enrollment
  • High Projection
  • Lower inflation/interest rates than current market
  • Moderate yield rate for new housing (.75 student per unit)
  • Increased student enrollment
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SLIDE 27

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Projected Enrollment – District-Wide, Low increase of less than 1%

  • p. 29

Grade 2016‐17 Actual 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 2025‐26 2026‐27 K 243 267 255 222 239 249 249 248 247 247 246 1 258 248 272 259 226 243 254 253 252 252 251 2 262 258 248 272 259 226 243 254 253 252 252 3 251 264 260 249 273 261 227 245 255 255 254 4 253 250 262 258 248 271 259 226 243 253 253 5 255 256 252 265 261 250 274 261 228 245 256 6 234 254 254 250 263 259 248 272 260 226 244 7 257 237 257 257 253 266 262 251 275 263 229 8 249 257 237 257 257 253 266 262 251 275 263 9 236 246 253 234 253 253 249 262 258 247 271 10 243 241 250 258 238 257 258 254 267 262 252 11 261 237 234 243 251 231 250 251 247 259 255 12 263 266 241 239 248 256 236 255 255 252 264 K ‐ 12 Total 3,265 3,281 3,275 3,263 3,269 3,275 3,275 3,294 3,291 3,288 3,290

Pottsgrove School District Projected Enrollment ‐ Low

Source: FutureThink

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SLIDE 28

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Projected Enrollment – District-Wide, High increase of 14%

  • p. 30

Grade 2016‐17 Actual 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 2025‐26 2026‐27 K 243 272 260 226 244 254 253 253 252 252 251 1 258 251 281 268 234 251 262 262 261 260 260 2 262 264 257 288 275 239 257 268 268 267 267 3 251 269 271 263 295 281 245 264 275 275 274 4 253 255 272 275 267 299 285 249 268 279 278 5 255 262 264 282 284 277 310 296 258 277 289 6 234 259 266 267 286 288 280 314 300 261 281 7 257 239 265 272 274 293 295 287 321 307 267 8 249 260 242 267 275 277 296 298 290 325 310 9 236 250 261 243 268 276 277 297 299 291 326 10 243 243 257 268 250 276 283 285 305 308 299 11 261 245 245 259 270 252 278 286 288 308 311 12 263 269 253 252 267 279 259 287 295 296 317 K ‐ 12 Total 3,265 3,338 3,394 3,430 3,489 3,542 3,580 3,646 3,680 3,706 3,730

Pottsgrove School District Projected Enrollment ‐ High

Source: FutureThink

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SLIDE 29

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT Conclusion/Considerations

  • Birth counts and K enrollment
  • Overall elementary enrollment
  • Additional job creation
  • Relationship between new housing development &

new students (yield factors)

  • Any other changes that may impact enrollment
  • p. 31
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SLIDE 30

POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

Thank You! Thank You!