DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE SPRING LAKE SCHOOL DISTRICT August 21, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

August 21, 2017

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE SPRING LAKE SCHOOL DISTRICT

Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area. Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ. Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.

STATISTICAL FORECASTING

Executive Director Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings.

RICHARD S. GRIP ED.D.

 Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2017-18 through 2021-22  Analyze district’s historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends, and age structure  Impact of new developments on enrollment PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

SPRING LAKE BOROUGH HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS 1940-2040

1,650 2,008 2,922 3,896 4,215 3,499 3,567 2,993 3,002 3,002 3,002

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Historical Projected

 97.6% White in 2010 (98.8% in 2000)  Median age = 51.9 years (NJ=39.4)  3% of population is foreign-born (NJ=22%).  Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 67%  Median family income = $137K (NJ =$88K)  Primary occupancy declined from 76% in 2000 to 61% in 2010.  Median value of owner-occupied unit = $1.175 million

SPRING LAKE BOROUGH DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

SCHOOL LOCATION

 District’s 2016-17 enrollment is 197.

 Enrollment has declined in last 5 years, losing 72 students since peak in 2011-12 (269).  Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollments five years into the future.

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS 2007-08 TO 2016-17

253.5 262 261.5 267 269 261 244 213 209 197

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

 Ratios are calculated for each grade

• progression. (Ex. 100 1st graders in

2015-16 become 95 2nd graders in 2016-17 = 0.95)  Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years.  Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments.

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO

SPRING LAKE RESIDENTS NON-PUBLIC ENROLLMENT

Year

• St. Catharine

Other Total 2012-13

16 5 21

2013-14

15 3 18

2014-15

7 5 12

2015-16

12 3 15

2016-17

10 5 15

 Accepting tuition students since 2015-16  2015-16: 12 students in grades PK-6  2016-17: 9 students remained in district, 6 new students.  2017-18: 4 new students in district

TUITION STUDENTS ATTENDING SCHOOL DISTRICT

 Negative kindergarten replacement (KR)

has occurred in 6 of last 7 years.  Magnitudes of negative KR are very small.  Negative KR- Number of graduating 8th grade students is greater than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year.  Negative KR was 9 students in 2016-17, as 20 8th graders graduated in 2015-16 and were replaced by 11 kindergarten students in 2016-17.

KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

HISTORICAL KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

• 18

2

• 5
• 18
• 7
• 6
• 9
• 20
• 15
• 10
• 5

5 10 15 20

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

TOTAL ENROLLMENT CHANGE VS. KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

• 18

2

• 5
• 18
• 7
• 6
• 9

9

• 1

6 2

• 8
• 17
• 31
• 4
• 12
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

10 20 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Kindergarten Replacement Enrollment Change

 Births are used to project kindergarten

students 5 years later.  Births in Spring Lake have been declining.  2002-2005: range was 26-31 (avg. =28).  2013-2015: range was 9-11 (avg. =10).  31 kindergarten students in 2008-09, 11 in 2016-17.

BIRTHS

BIRTH COUNTS AND BIRTH-TO-KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS

Birth Year Number of Births Spring Lake Borough Kindergarten Students Five Years Later Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratio 2002

28 20.5 0.732

2003

31 31 1.000

2004

26 22 0.846

2005

28 16 0.571

2006

18 23 1.278

2007

13 21 1.615

2008

22 16 0.727

2009

24 24 1.000

2010

12 19 1.583

2011

10 11 1.100

2012

18 N/A N/A

2013

9 N/A N/A

2014

11 N/A N/A

2015

10 N/A N/A

HISTORICAL BIRTHS SPRING LAKE BOROUGH 2002-2015

28 31 26 28 18 13 22 24 12 10 18 9 11 10

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AGE PYRAMID SPRING LAKE BOROUGH 2000

5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% Under 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Females Males

AGE PYRAMID SPRING LAKE BOROUGH 2010

5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% Under 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Females Males

AGE PYRAMID NEW JERSEY 2010

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Under 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Females Males

CHANGE IN MALES AND FEMALES 2000 TO 2010

Age Group

Males Females Numerical Change Percentage Point Change Numerical Change Percentage Point Change Under 5

• 31
• 0.5
• 32
• 0.5

5-9

• 26
• 0.2
• 37
• 0.6

10-14

• 2

+0.6

• 27
• 0.3

15-19 +28 +1.3 +6 +0.7 20-24

• 5

+0.1 +2 +0.4 25-29

• 30
• 0.7
• 14
• 0.2

30-34

• 27
• 0.6
• 45
• 1.1

35-39

• 63
• 1.6
• 61
• 1.4

40-44

• 55
• 1.2
• 41
• 0.7

45-49

• 24
• 0.1
• 13

+0.2 50-54 +2 +0.7

• 9

+0.5 55-59

• 4

+0.5

• 36
• 0.3

60-64 +13 +1.0 +33 +1.7 65-69 +6 +0.8

• 17

+0.2 70-74

• 51
• 1.0
• 21
• 0.1

75-79 +7 +0.6 +16 +1.0 80-84 +20 +0.9 +0.4 85+ +4 +0.3

• 40
• 0.8

 No residential developments under construction.  No residential applications before planning board. Available land is limited and community is nearly built

• ut.

 Many demolitions and rebuilds on same lot.

NEW HOUSING IN SPRING LAKE BOROUGH

HOMES BUILT BY DECADE SPRING LAKE BOROUGH

1068 75 223 131 130 171 151 163 10

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Prior to 1940 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010 or later

SPRING LAKE BOROUGH HOME SALES 2001-2016

22 37 68 40 30 36 39 42 37 54 49 70 63 79 82 82

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

190 181 164 160 161 187 177 158 151 149

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 202-21 2021-22

CSR 3-Yr. CSR 5-Yr.

PROJECTED KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

• 11
• 9
• 16
• 5
• 11
• 8
• 16
• 5
• 1
• 20
• 15
• 10
• 5

5 10

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

CSR 3-yr. CSR 5-YR

CAPACITY ANALYSIS

Scho hool Dis istri trict ct Practi ctice ces s Capaci acity ty Ac Actual al Enro rollment ent 2016-17 17 Dif iffe fere rence ce Pro rojec ected ed Enro rollment ent 2021-22 22 Dif iffe fere rence ce H.W. Mount ntz z Ele lementar entary Scho hool (PK-8) 8) 333 197 +136 161 +172 FES Capaci acity ty Ac Actual al Enro rollment ent 2016-17 17 Dif iffe fere rence ce Pro rojec ected ed Enro rollment ent 2021-22 22 Dif iffe fere rence ce 331 197 +134 161 +170

 Enrollments are projected to be lower at

the end of the 5-year projection period.  Lower number of primary occupants in Spring Lake  Older population  Declining birth rate has led to fewer children entering kindergarten.  Projections are based on current policy for accepting tuition students. Enrollments can change if policy is altered.

SUMMARY