FOR THE MATAWAN-ABERDEEN REGIONAL SCHOOL DISTRICT June 12, 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
for the
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

FOR THE MATAWAN-ABERDEEN REGIONAL SCHOOL DISTRICT June 12, 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 25, 2023 319 likes •603 views

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE MATAWAN-ABERDEEN REGIONAL SCHOOL DISTRICT June 12, 2017 STATISTICAL FORECASTING Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area since 1998. Performed

slide-1
SLIDE 1

June 12, 2017

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE MATAWAN-ABERDEEN REGIONAL SCHOOL DISTRICT

slide-2
SLIDE 2

 Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area since 1998.  Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ.  Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.

STATISTICAL FORECASTING

slide-3
SLIDE 3

 Executive Director  Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement  Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally  Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings.

RICHARD S. GRIP ED.D.

slide-4
SLIDE 4

 Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2017-18 through 2021-22  Analyze district’s historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends, and age structure  Impact of new developments on enrollment  Compute student yields (children per housing unit) by property type PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

slide-5
SLIDE 5

HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS 1940-2040

2,758 3,739 5,097 9,136 8,837 9,270 8,910 8,810 8,952 9,244 9,244 2,633 3,888 7,359 17,680 17,235 17,038 17,454 18,210 18,573 19,226 20,068

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Matawan Borough Aberdeen Township

Historical Projected

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Mataw awan an Boro rough ugh Aberde deen n Tow

  • wnshi

hip Race Origin

2000 00 Census 2010 10 Census 2010 10-2014 014 ACS 2000 00 Census 2010 10 Census 2010 10-2014 014 ACS

White 82.3% 81.0% 78.8% 76.6% Black or African American 6.5% 7.0% 12.0% 11.9% American Indian and Alaska Native 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Asian 8.0% 6.4% 5.5% 6.4% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Race 1.2% 2.8% 1.8% 2.8% Two or more Races 1.9% 2.7% 1.7% 2.0% Total 100.0%1 100.0%1 100.0%1 100.0%1 Hispanic Origin 6.5% 10.8% 7.0% 10.4% Foreign-Born 14.9% 12.6% 11.5% 17.3% Median age 36.4 years 38.3 years 37.0 years 39.0 years

Educatio tional nal Attainme ment nt

Bachelor’s degree or higher 30.4% 36.4% 34.4% 38.5% Graduate or professional degree 11.5% 12.1% 11.4% 15.3%

Incom

  • me

Median family income $72,183 $96,623 $76,648 $103,268 % of Persons in Poverty under age 18 6.9% 12.5% 7.1% 5.6%

Housing g Units

Total number 3,640 3,606 6,558 7,102 Occupied units 3,531 3,358 6,421 6,876 Owner-occupied units 2,067 (58.5%) 2,144 (63.8%) 5,006 (78.0%) 5,211 Renter-occupied units 1,464 (41.5%) 1,214 (36.2%) 1,415 (22.0%) 1,665 (24.2%) Median value of an

  • wner-occupied unit

$178,500 $316,800 $160,800 $311,300

Housing g Type

1-unit, attached or detached 2,214 (60.6%) 2,266 (61.7%) 5,043 (78.8%) 5,341 (74.8%) Two units 198 (5.4%) 77 (2.1%) 135 (2.1%) 99 (1.4%) Three or four units 253 (6.9%) 148 (4.0%) 316 (4.9%) 304 (4.3%) Five to nine units 305 (8.3%) 310 (8.4%) 253 (4.0%) 289 (4.0%) 10 to 19 units 307 (8.4%) 512 (13.9%) 375 (5.9%) 568 (7.9%) 20 or more units 379 (10.4%) 362 (9.9%) 274 (4.3%) 533(7.5%) Mobile home, Boat, Van, RV, etc. 0 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%) 6 (0.1%) 11 (0.2%)

slide-7
SLIDE 7

SCHOOL LOCATIONS

slide-8
SLIDE 8

ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE AREAS

slide-9
SLIDE 9

 District’s 2016-17 enrollment is

3,707.5.  Enrollment has remained fairly stable for the last ten years: 3,707.5 - 3,841.5, a range of 134 students.  Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollments five years into the future.

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS

slide-10
SLIDE 10

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS 2007-08 TO 2016-17

3,750 3,739 3,804.5 3,823 3,819.5 3,767.5 3,790 3,841.5 3,794 3,707.5

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

slide-11
SLIDE 11

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS BY LEVEL 2007-08 TO 2016-17

1,263 1,271 1,330 1,306 1,334 1,260 1,294 1,366 1,288 1,244 525 562 569 570 591 586 596 563 593 593 899 829 824 830 847 868 865 900 889 862 1,063 1,077 1,081.5 1,117 1,047.5 1,053.5 1,035 1,012.5 1,024 1,008.5

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

  • Gr. PK-3
  • Gr. 4-5
  • Gr. 6-8
  • Gr. 9-12
slide-12
SLIDE 12

 Ratios are calculated for each grade

  • progression. (Ex. 100 1st graders in 2015-

16 become 95 2nd graders in 2016-17 = 0.95)  Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years. 9 of 13 average ratios were below 1.000 indicating net outward migration.  Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments.

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO

slide-13
SLIDE 13

 Positive kindergarten replacement (KR) has

  • ccurred for past 9 years.

 Average gain of 46 students in last 5 years.  Positive KR- Number of graduating 12th grade students is less than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year.  Positive KR was 27 students in 2016-17, as 237 12th graders graduated in 2015-16 and were replaced by 264 kindergarten students in 2016-17.

KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

slide-14
SLIDE 14

HISTORICAL KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

45 62.5 20.5 115 28 62.5 70.5 42 27

20 40 60 80 100 120 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

slide-15
SLIDE 15

TOTAL ENROLLMENT CHANGE VS. KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

45 62.5 20.5 115 28 62.5 70.5 42 27

  • 11

65.5 18.5

  • 3.5
  • 52

22.5 51.5

  • 47.5
  • 86.5
  • 125
  • 75
  • 25

25 75 125

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Kindergarten Replacement Enrollment Change

slide-16
SLIDE 16

 Births are used to project

kindergarten students 5 years later.  Births have been declining in both communities: Matawan – 155 births in 2006, 109 in 2014. Aberdeen – 271 in 2009, 192 in 2014.  Combined: 400 births in 2007, 301 births in 2014.

BIRTH COUNTS

slide-17
SLIDE 17

BIRTH COUNTS AND BIRTH-TO-KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS

Birth Year Births Matawan Borough Births Aberdeen Township Total Number

  • f Births

Kindergarten Students Five Years Later Birth-to- Kindergarten Survival Ratio

2002 152 252 404 295 0.730 2003 140 253 393 307 0.781 2004 142 251 393 299 0.761 2005 135 251 386 284 0.736 2006 155 236 391 337 0.862 2007 151 249 400 291 0.728 2008 141 248 389 310 0.797 2009 128 271 399 336 0.842 2010 133 230 363 255 0.702 2011 126 234 360 264 0.733 2012 132 223 355 N/A N/A 2013 108 214 322 N/A N/A 2014 109 192 301 N/A N/A

slide-18
SLIDE 18

HISTORICAL BIRTHS 2002-2014

152 140 142 135 155 151 141 128 133 126 132 108 109 252 253 251 251 236 249 248 271 230 234 223 214 192 404 393 393 386 391 400 389 399 363 360 355 322 301

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Matawan Borough Aberdeen Township Total

slide-19
SLIDE 19

BIRTHS BY ATTENDANCE AREA

Birth Year Cliffwood Ravine Strathmore Unknown 2004 103 121 165 4 2005 105 121 152 8 2006 105 123 146 17 2007 103 120 142 35 2008 93 119 151 26 2009 120 99 135 45 2010 90 91 127 55 2011 110 99 116 34 2012 94 112 130 19 2013 105 83 117 17 2014 95 82 105 19

slide-20
SLIDE 20

BIRTHS BY CENSUS BLOCK 2004

slide-21
SLIDE 21

BIRTHS BY CENSUS BLOCK 2014

slide-22
SLIDE 22

 Age pyramids were computed for both communities for 2000 and 2010.  Greatest decline: 35-39 age group for both genders in each community.  Greatest increase: 50-54 age group for both genders in each community.  Declines in 30-34 and 35-39 age groups likely led to birth decline.

AGE PYRAMIDS

slide-23
SLIDE 23

 Matawan- two developments totaling 169 multi-family units. Largest is The Edge at Matawan (130 units, 1 & 2 BR).  Aberdeen- potential for 1,062 units (860 market-rate, 202 affordable).  Glassworks- largest project with 500 TH/APT units in Cliffwood attendance area.

NEW HOUSING

slide-24
SLIDE 24

 Student yields were computed for each

community to determine impact of new development.  1-4 Family homes: Matawan - 0.49 Aberdeen – 0.51  Townhouses/Condos: Matawan - 0.18 Aberdeen – 0.20  Apartments: Matawan - 0.09 Aberdeen – 0.12  252 children projected from new housing developments STUDENT YIELDS

slide-25
SLIDE 25

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

3,688 3,716 3,711 3,707 3,635

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

slide-26
SLIDE 26

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY CONFIGURATION

Historical PK-3 4-5 6-8 9-12 2016-17 1,244 593 862 1,008.5 Projected PK-3 4-5 6-8 9-12 2017-18 1,218 574 861 1,035 2018-19 1,165 633 875 1,043 2019-20 1,165 594 907 1,045 2020-21 1,159 537 931 1,080 2021-22 1,117 561 903 1,054 5-year Change

  • 127
  • 32

+41 +45.5

slide-27
SLIDE 27

CAPACITY ANALYSIS

Scho hool Capaci acity ty Ac Actual al En Enro rollme ment nt 2016-17 17 Dif ifferen rence ce Pro rojec ected ed En Enro rollme ment nt 2021-22 22 Dif ifferen rence ce Cambri bridg dge e Pa Park E.S. (PK) K) 120 92 +28 86 +34 Cli liffwoo

  • od

d E.S. (K (K-3) 3) 342 359

  • 17

354

  • 12

Ravin ine e Drive ive E.S. . (K (K-3) 3) 400 337 +63 283 +117 St Strat athm hmore re E.S. (K (K-3) 3) 463 456 +7 394 +69 Llo loyd Road E.S. (4 (4-5) 5) 621 593 +28 561 +60 Matawan an-Ab Aber erde deen n Mid iddle e Scho hool

  • l

(6 (6-8) 8) 1,225 862 +363 903 +322 Matawan an Regio ional nal Hig igh School hool (9 (9-12) 2) 1,509 1,008.5 +500.5 1,054 +455