FOR THE MATAWAN-ABERDEEN REGIONAL SCHOOL DISTRICT June 12, 2017 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE MATAWAN-ABERDEEN REGIONAL SCHOOL DISTRICT June 12, 2017

STATISTICAL FORECASTING  Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area since 1998.  Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ.  Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.

RICHARD S. GRIP ED.D.  Executive Director  Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement  Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally  Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings.

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY  Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2017-18 through 2021-22  Analyze district’s historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends, and age structure  Impact of new developments on enrollment  Compute student yields (children per housing unit) by property type

HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS 1940-2040 25,000 Matawan Borough Aberdeen Township 20,068 17,680 17,235 17,038 17,454 18,210 18,573 19,226 20,000 15,000 10,000 7,359 9,270 9,244 9,244 9,136 8,952 8,910 8,837 8,810 3,888 5,000 Historical 5,097 Projected 2,633 3,739 2,758 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Mataw awan an Boro rough ugh Aberde deen n Tow ownshi hip 2010 10 Census 2010 10 Census Race Origin 2000 00 Census 2000 00 Census 2010 10-2014 014 ACS 2010 10-2014 014 ACS 82.3% 81.0% 78.8% 76.6% White Black or African American 6.5% 7.0% 12.0% 11.9% American Indian and Alaska Native 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Asian 8.0% 6.4% 5.5% 6.4% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Race 1.2% 2.8% 1.8% 2.8% Two or more Races 1.9% 2.7% 1.7% 2.0% Total 100.0% 1 100.0% 1 100.0% 1 100.0% 1 6.5% 10.8% 7.0% 10.4% Hispanic Origin 14.9% 12.6% 11.5% 17.3% Foreign-Born Median age 36.4 years 38.3 years 37.0 years 39.0 years Educatio tional nal Attainme ment nt 30.4% 36.4% 34.4% 38.5% Bachelor’s degree or higher 11.5% 12.1% 11.4% 15.3% Graduate or professional degree Incom ome Median family income $72,183 $96,623 $76,648 $103,268 % of Persons in Poverty under age 18 6.9% 12.5% 7.1% 5.6% Housing g Units Total number 3,640 3,606 6,558 7,102 3,531 3,358 6,421 6,876 Occupied units Owner-occupied units 2,067 (58.5%) 2,144 (63.8%) 5,006 (78.0%) 5,211 Renter-occupied units 1,464 (41.5%) 1,214 (36.2%) 1,415 (22.0%) 1,665 (24.2%) Median value of an $178,500 $316,800 $160,800 $311,300 owner-occupied unit Housing g Type 1-unit, attached or detached 2,214 (60.6%) 2,266 (61.7%) 5,043 (78.8%) 5,341 (74.8%) Two units 198 (5.4%) 77 (2.1%) 135 (2.1%) 99 (1.4%) Three or four units 253 (6.9%) 148 (4.0%) 316 (4.9%) 304 (4.3%) Five to nine units 305 (8.3%) 310 (8.4%) 253 (4.0%) 289 (4.0%) 10 to 19 units 307 (8.4%) 512 (13.9%) 375 (5.9%) 568 (7.9%) 379 (10.4%) 362 (9.9%) 274 (4.3%) 533(7.5%) 20 or more units Mobile home, Boat, Van, RV, etc. 0 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%) 6 (0.1%) 11 (0.2%)

SCHOOL LOCATIONS

ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE AREAS

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS  District’s 2016 -17 enrollment is 3,707.5.  Enrollment has remained fairly stable for the last ten years: 3,707.5 - 3,841.5, a range of 134 students.  Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollments five years into the future.

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS 2007-08 TO 2016-17 4,500 3,739 3,804.5 3,823 3,819.5 3,767.5 3,790 3,841.5 3,794 3,707.5 4,000 3,750 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS BY LEVEL 2007-08 TO 2016-17 1,366 1,400 1,334 1,330 1,306 1,294 1,288 1,271 1,263 1,260 1,244 1,200 1,117 1,081.5 1,077 1,063 1,053.5 1,047.5 1,035 1,024 1,012.5 1,008.5 1,000 889 900 899 868 800 865 862 847 829 830 824 600 596 593 593 591 586 569 570 562 563 525 400 200 Gr. PK-3 Gr. 4-5 Gr. 6-8 Gr. 9-12 0 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO  Ratios are calculated for each grade progression. (Ex. 100 1 st graders in 2015- 16 become 95 2 nd graders in 2016-17 = 0.95)  Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years. 9 of 13 average ratios were below 1.000 indicating net outward migration.  Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments.

KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT  Positive kindergarten replacement (KR) has occurred for past 9 years.  Average gain of 46 students in last 5 years.  Positive KR- Number of graduating 12 th grade students is less than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year.  Positive KR was 27 students in 2016-17, as 237 12 th graders graduated in 2015-16 and were replaced by 264 kindergarten students in 2016-17.

HISTORICAL KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT 115 120 100 80 70.5 62.5 62.5 60 45 42 40 28 27 20.5 20 0 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

TOTAL ENROLLMENT CHANGE VS. KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT 125 115 70.5 75 65.5 62.5 62.5 51.5 45 42 28 27 22.5 20.5 18.5 25 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 -3.5 -11 -25 -47.5 -52 -75 -86.5 Kindergarten Replacement Enrollment Change -125

BIRTH COUNTS  Births are used to project kindergarten students 5 years later.  Births have been declining in both communities: Matawan – 155 births in 2006, 109 in 2014. Aberdeen – 271 in 2009, 192 in 2014.  Combined: 400 births in 2007, 301 births in 2014.

BIRTH COUNTS AND BIRTH-TO-KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS Births Births Kindergarten Birth-to- Total Number Birth Year Matawan Aberdeen Students Five Kindergarten of Births Borough Township Years Later Survival Ratio 2002 152 252 404 295 0.730 2003 140 253 393 307 0.781 2004 142 251 393 299 0.761 2005 135 251 386 284 0.736 2006 155 236 391 337 0.862 2007 151 249 400 291 0.728 2008 141 248 389 310 0.797 2009 128 271 399 336 0.842 2010 133 230 363 255 0.702 2011 126 234 360 264 0.733 2012 132 223 355 N/A N/A 2013 108 214 322 N/A N/A 2014 109 192 301 N/A N/A

HISTORICAL BIRTHS 2002-2014 450 404 400 399 393 393 391 389 386 400 363 360 355 350 322 301 300 271 253 252 251 251 249 248 236 234 230 250 223 214 192 200 155 152 151 142 141 140 135 133 132 150 128 126 109 108 100 50 Matawan Borough Aberdeen Township Total 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

BIRTHS BY ATTENDANCE AREA Birth Year Cliffwood Ravine Strathmore Unknown 2004 103 121 165 4 2005 105 121 152 8 2006 105 123 146 17 2007 103 120 142 35 2008 93 119 151 26 2009 120 99 135 45 2010 90 91 127 55 2011 110 99 116 34 2012 94 112 130 19 2013 105 83 117 17 2014 95 82 105 19

BIRTHS BY CENSUS BLOCK 2004

BIRTHS BY CENSUS BLOCK 2014

AGE PYRAMIDS  Age pyramids were computed for both communities for 2000 and 2010.  Greatest decline: 35-39 age group for both genders in each community.  Greatest increase: 50-54 age group for both genders in each community.  Declines in 30-34 and 35-39 age groups likely led to birth decline.

NEW HOUSING  Matawan- two developments totaling 169 multi-family units. Largest is The Edge at Matawan (130 units, 1 & 2 BR).  Aberdeen- potential for 1,062 units (860 market-rate, 202 affordable).  Glassworks- largest project with 500 TH/APT units in Cliffwood attendance area.

STUDENT YIELDS  Student yields were computed for each community to determine impact of new development.  1-4 Family homes: Matawan - 0.49 Aberdeen – 0.51  Townhouses/Condos: Matawan - 0.18 Aberdeen – 0.20  Apartments: Matawan - 0.09 Aberdeen – 0.12  252 children projected from new housing developments

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 4,000 3,716 3,711 3,707 3,688 3,635 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY CONFIGURATION Historical PK-3 4-5 6-8 9-12 2016-17 1,244 593 862 1,008.5 Projected PK-3 4-5 6-8 9-12 2017-18 1,218 574 861 1,035 2018-19 1,165 633 875 1,043 2019-20 1,165 594 907 1,045 2020-21 1,159 537 931 1,080 2021-22 1,117 561 903 1,054 5-year Change -127 -32 +41 +45.5

CAPACITY ANALYSIS Ac Actual al Pro rojec ected ed Scho hool Capaci acity ty En Enro rollme ment nt Dif ifferen rence ce En Enro rollme ment nt Dif ifferen rence ce 2016-17 17 2021-22 22 Cambri bridg dge e Pa Park E.S. 120 92 +28 86 +34 (PK) K) Cli liffwoo ood d E.S. 342 359 -17 354 -12 (K (K-3) 3) Ravin ine e Drive ive E.S. . 400 337 +63 283 +117 (K (K-3) 3) St Strat athm hmore re E.S. 463 456 +7 394 +69 (K (K-3) 3) Llo loyd Road E.S. 621 593 +28 561 +60 (4-5) (4 5) Matawan an-Ab Aber erde deen n Mid iddle e Scho hool ol 1,225 862 +363 903 +322 (6 (6-8) 8) Matawan an Regio ional nal Hig igh School hool 1,509 1,008.5 +500.5 1,054 +455 (9 (9-12) 2)