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RCP4.5 Update Allison Thomson and the GCAM model group Joint Global - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
RCP4.5 Update Allison Thomson and the GCAM model group Joint Global - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
RCP4.5 Update Allison Thomson and the GCAM model group Joint Global Change Research Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory September 15, 2009 IAMC Annual Meeting 1 GCAM (formerly MiniCAM) Structure 2 Initial basis for RCP4.5 US
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Initial basis for RCP4.5
US Climate Change Science Program scenarios published in 2007.
Population peaks at 9 billion in 2065 and declines to 8.7 billion in 2100 Global GDP grows by an order of magnitude by 2100 Energy consumption triples by 2100 Carbon price of $500 per ton C by 2100 Net negative emissions from electric power generation Renewables, nuclear and CCS all deployed Mechanism for valuing terrestrial carbon included
Reference: Clarke, L, J Edmonds, H Jacoby, H Pitcher, J Reilly, R Richels. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, 7 DC., USA, 154 pp.
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Modifications for the RCP4.5
Scenario drivers and core model assumptions remain the same RCP4.5 was run with an updated version of GCAM:
Agriculture, Land Use and NonCO2 greenhouse gas components updated and fully integrated in ObjECTS GCAM Updated base year land use and emissions inventories to harmonized RCP data Modified mechanism for valuing terrestrial carbon equally to fossil fuel and industrial carbon Updated version of MAGICC to be consistent with other RCP modeling groups.
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Results
150 300 450 600 750 900 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (ppm)
GCAM RCP 4.5 GCAM RCP reference
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ/yr
geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear bio w/ccs bio coal w/ccs coal gas w/ccs gas
- il w/ccs
- il
CO2 concentration Primary Energy Consumption
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Land Use
Total Cropland
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
millions of ha Western Europe USA Southeast Asia Middle East Latin America Korea Japan India Former Soviet Union Eastern Europe China Canada Australia_NZ Africa
Downscaled for harmonization Terrestrial carbon valuation
- Reduce LUC emissions by
expansion and preservation of forests
- Decline in cropland area
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Beef production
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 beef production Food Crops Fodder Crops Pasture CH4 Emissions from Agriculture
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 TgCH4/yr
Feed for beef shifts into dedicated crops Overall production declines, causing declining emissions
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Updates since the data release in May
Model name – from MiniCAM to GCAM Updates and corrections to emissions
BC/OC inventory update and re-release in July Additional correction to shipping grids in September
Climate model implementation – land use
Initial interpretation of land use by CM groups revealed some larger questions about the harmonization and hand-off steps.
Land use downscaling algorithms updated and new products due to be released in a few weeks. Extension to 2300 – remain stabilized at 4.5.
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