Northwest climate change, impacts, and solutions Philip Mote - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Northwest climate change, impacts, and solutions Philip Mote - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 05, 2022 124 likes •353 views

9 16 Annual mean temperature 8 RCP4.5 14 7 RCP8.5 12 6 10 5 8 4 C F 6 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 4 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Northwest climate change, impacts, and solutions Philip Mote Oregon Climate

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Northwest climate change, impacts, and solutions

Philip Mote

Oregon Climate Change Research Institute

  • ccri.net @pwmote
Year ° C 1950 2000 2050 2100 −2 −1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 −4 −2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 ° F Annual mean temperature RCP4.5 RCP8.5
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photo credit: Portland Oregonian

glacial erratic outside McMinnville, OR, rafted from Lake Missoula floods http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/06/lidar_map_shows_path_of_missou.html

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Ice Age Floods Institute

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IPCC 2013 Figs 2.1, 2.2, 2.3

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source: National Center for Environmental Intelligence ncei.noaa.gov

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Ten Indicators of A Warming World

US National Climate Assessment, 2014

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Year ° C 1950 2000 2050 2100 −2 −1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 −4 −2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 ° F Annual mean temperature RCP4.5 RCP8.5

PNW temperature

Difference from 1950-1999 average

slide ¡by ¡David ¡Rupp, ¡from ¡Mote ¡et ¡al ¡2013

Edited by: Meghan M. Dalton Philip W. Mote Amy K. Snover Climate Change in the Northwest Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities
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Three main risks in Northwest climate change

  • Diminishing snowpack affecting summer

water supply

  • Coastal erosion, inundation
  • Damage to forests from fires, insects
Edited by: Meghan M. Dalton Philip W. Mote Amy K. Snover Climate Change in the Northwest Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities

Source: Northwest Climate Assessment Dalton et al. 2013 - see occri.net/reports

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Decreasing summer flow in snowmelt watersheds

Mote et al., National Climate Assessment 2014, Fig 21.1

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This document represents work in progress and is not to be considered final work. Please do not cite or distribute.

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from Hoodoo web cam February 23, 2015

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* *until major subduction earthquake

Mote et al., National Climate Assessment 2014, Fig 21.3

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Risks to forests

Mote et al., National Climate Assessment 2014, Fig 21.7a

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Adaptation

  • Incorporate climate in long-range planning
  • Evaluate & reduce risks
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Increasing)along)RCP8.5,) ~3%)growth)per)year)

Raupach et al., Nature Climate Change - Steve Davis, UC Irvine

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56.94& 72.53& 60.94&

0& 10& 20& 30& 40& 50& 60& 70& 80& 1990& 1992& 1994& 1996& 1998& 2000& 2002& 2004& 2006& 2008& 2010& 2012& Million&MT&CO2e&

Total&Greenhouse&Gas&Emissions&&199082012&

Oregon’s emissions

source: Oregon Dept of Energy

2020 goal 2050 goal

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56.94& 72.53& 60.94&

0& 10& 20& 30& 40& 50& 60& 70& 80& 1990& 1992& 1994& 1996& 1998& 2000& 2002& 2004& 2006& 2008& 2010& 2012& Million&MT&CO2e&

Total&Greenhouse&Gas&Emissions&&199082012&

Oregon’s emissions

source: Oregon Dept of Energy, modified by Philip Mote

2020 goal 2050 goal

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GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Source: World Resources Institute

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Global carbon abatement cost to 2030

Source: McKinsey & Co., 2009

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Policy framing

  • Targeted e.g., BETC, solar tax credits
  • Systemic e.g., carbon tax/fee, cap & trade
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Technological

  • Transportation
  • Energy production
  • Energy efficiency
  • Agriculture
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not part of any Climate Assessment reports