Northwest climate change, impacts, and solutions Philip Mote - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

9 16 Annual mean temperature 8 RCP4.5 14 7 RCP8.5 12 6 10 5 8 4 ° C ° F 6 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 − 1 − 2 − 2 − 4 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Northwest climate change, impacts, and solutions Philip Mote Oregon Climate Change Research Institute occri.net @pwmote

photo credit: Portland Oregonian glacial erratic outside McMinnville, OR, rafted from Lake Missoula floods http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/06/lidar_map_shows_path_of_missou.html

Ice Age Floods Institute

IPCC 2013 Figs 2.1, 2.2, 2.3

source: National Center for Environmental Intelligence ncei.noaa.gov

Ten Indicators of A Warming World US National Climate Assessment, 2014

PNW temperature C limate C hange in the N orthwest Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities Difference from 1950-1999 average Edited by: Meghan M. Dalton Philip W. Mote Amy K. Snover 9 16 Annual mean temperature 8 RCP4.5 14 7 RCP8.5 12 6 10 5 8 4 ° C ° F 6 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 − 1 − 2 − 2 − 4 1950 2000 2050 2100 slide ¡by ¡David ¡Rupp, ¡from ¡Mote ¡et ¡al ¡2013 Year

C limate C hange in the N orthwest Three main risks Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities Edited by: Meghan M. Dalton Philip W. Mote Amy K. Snover in Northwest climate change • Diminishing snowpack affecting summer water supply • Coastal erosion, inundation • Damage to forests from fires, insects Source: Northwest Climate Assessment Dalton et al. 2013 - see occri.net/reports

Decreasing summer flow in snowmelt watersheds Mote et al., National Climate Assessment 2014, Fig 21.1

from Hoodoo web cam February 23, 2015 This document represents work in progress and is not to be considered final work. Please do not cite or distribute. 10

* *until major subduction earthquake Mote et al., National Climate Assessment 2014, Fig 21.3

Risks to forests Mote et al., National Climate Assessment 2014, Fig 21.7a

Adaptation • Incorporate climate in long-range planning • Evaluate & reduce risks

Increasing)along)RCP8.5,) ~3%)growth)per)year) Raupach et al., Nature Climate Change - Steve Davis, UC Irvine

Oregon’s emissions Total&Greenhouse&Gas&Emissions&&199082012& 80& 72.53& 70& 60& Million&MT&CO2e & 60.94& 2020 goal 56.94& 50& 40& 30& 20& 2050 goal 10& 0& 1990& 1992& 1994& 1996& 1998& 2000& 2002& 2004& 2006& 2008& 2010& 2012& source: Oregon Dept of Energy

Oregon’s emissions Total&Greenhouse&Gas&Emissions&&199082012& 80& 72.53& 70& 60& Million&MT&CO2e & 60.94& 2020 goal 56.94& 50& 40& 30& 20& 2050 goal 10& 0& 1990& 1992& 1994& 1996& 1998& 2000& 2002& 2004& 2006& 2008& 2010& 2012& source: Oregon Dept of Energy, modified by Philip Mote

GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Source: World Resources Institute

Global carbon abatement cost to 2030 Source: McKinsey & Co., 2009

Policy framing • Targeted e.g., BETC, solar tax credits • Systemic e.g., carbon tax/fee, cap & trade

Technological • Transportation • Energy production • Energy efficiency • Agriculture

not part of any Climate Assessment reports