Global Climate Change Impacts: Global Climate Change Impacts: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global Climate Change Impacts: Global Climate Change Impacts: Implications for Climate Engineering Implications for Climate Engineering Thomas R. Karl

Lead, NOAA climate services Director, NOAA National Climatic Data Center

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

October 29, 2009

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Response Strategies to Climate Response Strategies to Climate Change Change

“ “Mitigation Mitigation” ” –

– reducing the amount of reducing the amount of climate change, for example, by climate change, for example, by reducing emissions or increasing their reducing emissions or increasing their removal from the atmosphere removal from the atmosphere (including climate engineering) (including climate engineering)

“ “Adaptation Adaptation” ” –

– improving our improving our ability to cope with or avoid harmful ability to cope with or avoid harmful impacts or taking advantage of impacts or taking advantage of newly favorable conditions newly favorable conditions

Both will be needed. Both will be needed.

Future climate change and its impacts Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today depend on choices made today

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The The “ “state of knowledge state of knowledge” ” report summarizes the report summarizes the science and impacts of science and impacts of climate change in the U.S. climate change in the U.S.

Plain language, authoritative Plain language, authoritative US Global Change Research Program US Global Change Research Program report, led by NOAA report, led by NOAA Extensive review: public reviews (2), blue Extensive review: public reviews (2), blue ribbon expert review, federal agency ribbon expert review, federal agency (GCRP) review (GCRP) review Draws from all previous assessments, Draws from all previous assessments, global and national (IPCC, CCSP etc) global and national (IPCC, CCSP etc) Author team was a 31 Author team was a 31-

• member FACA

member FACA body and included federal, academic and body and included federal, academic and private sector experts private sector experts

globalchange.gov/usimpacts globalchange.gov/usimpacts

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Report released in June in a Report released in June in a White House press briefing White House press briefing

The report breaks down climate change impacts on the U.S. into:

• Global Section

Global Section

• National Overview

National Overview

• 9 regions:

9 regions:

• Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains,

Southwest, Northwest, Alaska, Islands, coasts

• 7 sectors:

7 sectors:

• Concludes with

Concludes with “ “An Agenda for Science An Agenda for Science” ”

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• Climate changes are happening now and are

Climate changes are happening now and are likely to grow in the coming decades. likely to grow in the coming decades.

• Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized at

Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized at ‘ ‘low low’ ’ scenarios (550ppm), impacts will be widespread and significant. scenarios (550ppm), impacts will be widespread and significant.

• Many impacts will not be avoided.

Many impacts will not be avoided.

• Increased motivation for climate engineering?

Increased motivation for climate engineering?

• BUT Research into effectiveness and appropriateness of

BUT Research into effectiveness and appropriateness of climate engineering climate engineering – – barely begun barely begun

• Unintended regional consequences possible

Unintended regional consequences possible

• Lowering global average temperature

Lowering global average temperature ≠ ≠ limiting regional impacts limiting regional impacts

Implications of this report for Implications of this report for climate engineering: climate engineering:

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For example: teleconnections with short For example: teleconnections with short-

• lived

lived radiatively active gases radiatively active gases

Surface Temperature change from ~2010 to Surface Temperature change from ~2010 to 2100 in GISS GFDL model 2100 in GISS GFDL model

Forcing is mostly in SE Forcing is mostly in SE Asia Asia Response in summer is Response in summer is strongest in N. American strongest in N. American continental interior continental interior Just discovering these Just discovering these possible teleconnections/ possible teleconnections/ impacts impacts MUCH uncertainty in MUCH uncertainty in scenarios and responses scenarios and responses

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Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced human induced

Global Temperature and CO Global Temperature and CO2

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Separating Human and Natural Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate Influences on Climate

Human fingerprints have been identified Human fingerprints have been identified in many aspects of climate change in many aspects of climate change

• Temperature

Temperature

• Precipitation

Precipitation

• Ocean heat content

Ocean heat content

• Atmospheric moisture

Atmospheric moisture

• Arctic sea ice

Arctic sea ice

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Moving Outside the Range of Historical Variation Moving Outside the Range of Historical Variation

800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide Concentration 800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide Concentration

Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human human-

• induced

induced

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Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human human-

• induced

induced

About 1/3 of the CO2 from fossil fuel burning remains in the atmosphere after 100 years About 1/5 of it remains after 1000 years The U.S. is responsible for about 28% of human‐induced heat‐trapping gases in the atmosphere today

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Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human human-

• induced

induced

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Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human human-

• induced

induced

Temperature Heaviest 5%

• f precip

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1.Global Warming is unequivocal and 1.Global Warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced primarily human induced

• 2. Climate Changes are underway in
• 2. Climate Changes are underway in

the U.S. and are projected to grow the U.S. and are projected to grow

• 3. Widespread climate
• 3. Widespread climate-
• related

related impacts are occurring now and are impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase expected to increase

• 4. Climate Change will stress water
• 4. Climate Change will stress water

resources resources

• 5. Crop and livestock production will
• 5. Crop and livestock production will

be increasingly challenged be increasingly challenged

Key Findings Key Findings

Projected Changes in Annual Runoff Change in Population from 1970 to 2008

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• 6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise
• 6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise

and storm surge and storm surge

• 7. Risks to human health will increase
• 7. Risks to human health will increase
• 8. Climate change will interact
• 8. Climate change will interact

with many social and with many social and environmental stresses environmental stresses

• 9. Thresholds will be crossed
• 9. Thresholds will be crossed

leading to large changes leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems in climate and ecosystems 10.Future climate and its 10.Future climate and its impacts depends on impacts depends on choices made today choices made today

Key Findings Key Findings

Pollen Counts Rise with Increasing Carbon Dioxide

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Temperature rise Temperature rise Sea Sea-

• level rise

level rise Increase in heavy downpours Increase in heavy downpours Rapidly retreating glaciers Rapidly retreating glaciers Thawing permafrost Thawing permafrost Longer growing Longer growing season season Longer ice Longer ice-

• free season

free season in the ocean and on lakes in the ocean and on lakes and rivers and rivers Earlier snowmelt Earlier snowmelt Changes in river flows Changes in river flows

Observed U.S. Sea Observed U.S. Sea-

• Level Changes

Level Changes

Climate changes Climate changes are underway are underway in the U.S. in the U.S. (and globally) and are projected to grow (and globally) and are projected to grow

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Number of Number of Days Over 100 Days Over 100º ºF F

Recent Past, 1961 Recent Past, 1961-

• 1979

1979

Climate changes are underway in the U.S. Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow and are projected to grow

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Number of Number of Days Over 100 Days Over 100º ºF F

Climate changes are underway in the U.S. Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow and are projected to grow

Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080 Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-

• 2099

2099

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Number of Number of Days Over 100 Days Over 100º ºF F

Climate changes are underway in the U.S. Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow and are projected to grow

Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080 Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-

• 2099

2099

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Projected Change in Precipitation Intensity Projected Change in Precipitation Intensity (2080 (2080-

• 2099)

2099) Observed Increases in Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation Very Heavy Precipitation (1958 to 2007 (1958 to 2007)

Climate changes are underway in the U.S. Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow and are projected to grow

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Coastal areas are at increasing risk from Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea sea-

• level rise and storm surge

level rise and storm surge

Sea-level rise Storm surge Erosion Flooding

Projected Sea Projected Sea-

• Level Rise

Level Rise

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Ocean Acidification Ocean Acidification

coral calcification may decline 30% under CO2 doubling

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Tipping points will be reached, leading to Tipping points will be reached, leading to unpredictable changes unpredictable changes

Arctic Sea Ice Arctic Sea Ice Annual Minimum

Annual Minimum

Ice Ice-

• albedo feedback initiated

albedo feedback initiated -

• tipping point reached?

tipping point reached? Many possible thresholds exist in Many possible thresholds exist in the physical climate system and in the physical climate system and in ecological and social systems ecological and social systems

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Conclusions Conclusions

As impacts rapidly increase, the pressure to implement a climate engineering ‘solution’ is also likely to increase BUT the complexities of understanding unintended consequences are enormous. This includes understanding the physical, ecosystem, and socio- economic impacts.

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Thank you. Thank you.

Questions? Questions?

www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts

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Implications not

• nly for

ecosystems but for sequestration

• ptions

Non-insect- related forest die-

• ff also been
• bserved –water

limitations (4.2)

Spruce Bark Beetle in AK Spruce Bark Beetle in AK

Tipping points will be reached, leading to Tipping points will be reached, leading to unpredictable changes unpredictable changes

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Climate Changes are underway in the U.S. Climate Changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow and are projected to grow

Near Near-

• term projected average

term projected average temperature rise in the U.S. temperature rise in the U.S.

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Climate Change will interact with many Climate Change will interact with many

• ther social and environmental stresses
• ther social and environmental stresses

Projected water conflicts by 2025 Projected water conflicts by 2025

WITHOUT considering climate WITHOUT considering climate change, projections of water change, projections of water conflict increase by 2025 conflict increase by 2025 In regions where water In regions where water availability will decrease (as a availability will decrease (as a result of climate change), water result of climate change), water could be a major source of could be a major source of conflict conflict Many parts of the world in Many parts of the world in much worse situations much worse situations