SLIDE 1
Session 2: Climate Change Impacts in Eastern Massachusetts
SLIDE 2 Why Consider Climate Change?
By using green infrastructure to prepare for climate change, we:
- Protect the health of
- ur community
- Become more
economically resilient
more livable for future generations Climate change amplifies existing threats and
SLIDE 3
Water Vapor Fluorinated gases (CFCs)
Methane (CH4) and Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Carbon dioxide (CO)2
Greenhouse Gases
SLIDE 4
SLIDE 5 Historic CO2 Concentration
A natural change of 100ppm normally occurs
- ver 5,000 to 20,000 years.
The recent increase of 100ppm has taken 120 years.
Fact Source: EPA. Image Source, Scripps Institute of Oceanography
SLIDE 6 Global T emperature
Mean 6.6°F Mean 3.5°F
From Knutti and Sedlacek, 2012
Future warming is expected to continue
In New England, temperatures could increase by about 10°F or more by 2100.
“Paris Agreement” Lowest Emissions Observations High “Business as Usual” Emissions
Observations
Global temperatures increased by 1.53°F (0.85°C) from 1880 to 2012.
SLIDE 7 Massachusetts Key Observed Climate Changes
2.8°F
Since 1895
Temperature:
10 Days
Since 1950
Growing Season:
10 inches
Since 1922
Sea Level Rise:
71%
Since 1958
Strong Storms:
SLIDE 8 Rising T emperatures in Massachusetts
2.8°F Warmer
1895-2015
Observed
4 to 7°F Warmer
2041-2070
Mid-century
Sources: UMass-Amherst, Northeast Climate Science Center, Third National Climate Assessment, NOAA CLIMDIV dataset.
7 to 10°F Warmer
2070-2099
2100
Paris Agreement
SLIDE 9
What’s in a degree?
SLIDE 10 Extreme Heat in Massachusetts
Days per year above
90°F
Current Projected by Mid-Century
Days per year above
95°F ≤15 ≤5 +30 to 40 +3 to 9
Days per year above
100°F ≤1 +1 to 5
Source: NOAA NESDIS
SLIDE 11
Migrating Massachusetts
By the end of the century, summers in Massachusetts will “feel” more like summers in the South.
SLIDE 12 Longer Frost-free Season
From the 3rd National Climate Assessment, 2014
10 Days
Observed After 1960
1-2 Months
Projected 2071-2099
SLIDE 13
Future Forests
Maple, Beech, Birch Oak, Hickory
SLIDE 14 Shifting Plant Hardiness Zones
Maps, modified: Arbor Day Foundation, USDA
SLIDE 15 Challenges of Habitat and Wildlife Change
Climate change alters habitats and food sources faster than many species can adapt. Pests and disease vectors change. Recreational priorities change.
Third National Climate Assessment
SLIDE 16
Rising Temperatures Bring More Rain or Snow
To understand why, you need only consider your morning coffee.
SLIDE 17
More fuel for storms More Heat More evaporation More precipitation
SLIDE 18 More Precipitation
Source: NOAA Changes are calculated from a linear regression of annual totals from 1895-2015, 1901-2000 reference period.
1.2 trillion more gallons of
water or equivalent snow falling
- n Massachusetts each year.
~9,700 filled Prudential Towers Total annual precipitation has increased by:
15%
SLIDE 19 More Extreme Precipitation
Following methodology from Groisman et al, 2005, updated.
The amount falling in the heaviest 1% of precipitation events increased by 71% in the Northeast from 1958 to 2012.
71%
Observed 1958-2012
SLIDE 20 Change in 24-hour, 100-year Design Storms (inches)
NOAA TP-40 NOAA Atlas 14 Change
Taunton 6.9” 7.7” +0.8” Boston 6.6” 7.8” +1.2” Worcester 6.5” 7.6” +1.1”
NOAA Atlas 14: http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/
SLIDE 21 NRCC Change in Design Storms (24-hour, 100-year, inches)
NOAA TP-40 NRCC/Cornell
Change Taunton 6.9” 7.78” +0.9” Boston 6.6” 7.82” +1.2” Worcester 6.5” 7.84” +1.1”
NRCC Cornell Extreme Precipitation in NY and NE: http://precip.eas.cornell.edu/
SLIDE 22 NRCC Change in Design Storms (24-hour, 100-year, inches, %)
NOAA TP-40 NRCC/Cornell
Change Taunton 6.9” 7.78” 15% Boston 6.6” 7.82” 19% Worcester 6.5” 7.84” 17%
NRCC Cornell Extreme Precipitation in NY and NE: http://precip.eas.cornell.edu/
SLIDE 23
An anecdotal rule of thumb for anticipating changes in extreme precipitation…
Models often project a return period shorter by a factor of 2 to 4. Often: But projections vary place-to-place.
10-year storm 25-year storm 100-year storm
SLIDE 24 An anecdotal rule of thumb for anticipating changes in extreme precipitation…
Models often project a return period shorter by a factor of 2 to 4. Often: But projections vary place-to-place.
10%
Annual Chance
4%
Annual Chance
1%
Annual Chance
SLIDE 25 Projected Change: Precipitation
Adapted from NCA 2013, Fig. 2.14
% Change in Seasonal Precipitation by end-of-century (compared to 1970-1999) under Higher Emissions Scenario
25
Winter +10 to 20% Summer
SLIDE 26
Precipitation Impacts: Seasonal Changes and Water Supply Changing Seasonal Precipitation:
Warmer springs and more precipitation increase the potential for mixed precipitation and variable spring weather.
Summer Water Availability:
Even as annual total precipitation increases, summers may become drier.
SLIDE 27 Long-term change doesn’t rule
- ut shorter-term variability.
Example: Even as average temperatures warm, we will still experience winter storms.
SLIDE 28
SLIDE 29 2016:
4th Warmest June-Aug 5th Driest (PDSI) on record
SLIDE 30 Snow Cover Decreasing
Area projected to have at least 30 days of snow cover per year
Frumhoff, P.C., et al. 2007. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, Solutions. Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists
SLIDE 31
Water Infrastructure
Freeze Vulnerability
Rising winter temperatures are reducing spring snow cover.
+
Risk of spring cold snaps has remained relatively stable.
=
Increased subsurface freeze risk
SLIDE 32
SLIDE 33 Sea Level Rise: Marshfield
Assuming 6 ft of sea level rise. Available from the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer
SLIDE 34 Sea Level Rise: Dighton
Assuming 6 ft of sea level rise. Available from the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer
SLIDE 35
Coastal Flooding
SLIDE 36
Salt Marsh Migration
SLIDE 37
Public Health:
Ticks and Lyme Disease
SLIDE 38 Public Health:
Algal Blooms
Warmer Lake Temperatures Stronger Storms Changed Lake Dynamics
Greater Nutrient Loading
More Runoff Algal Blooms, Fish Kills
West Monponsett Pond, Halifax, Massachusetts
SLIDE 39 A Global Problem with Local Solutions
Local land use decisions drastically alter the severity of climate change impacts.
Image at right: Floodwaters from the Taunton River flood the junction of Route 44 and Route 104 in Taunton, photo: AP.
SLIDE 40 How do we address the problem?
dangerous impacts.
changes. massadapt.org Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions will reduce future need for adaptation efforts.
SLIDE 41
Adaptation and Mitigation
Adaptation Mitigation
Projected Global Average Temperature
SLIDE 42
Adaptation Example: Bioswales
SLIDE 43 Mitigation Example: Offshore Wind
Block Island Wind Farm, DeepWater Wind
SLIDE 44
Adaptation: Convince residents to start near home. Adopt a drain. Adopt a tree. Adopt a neighbor.
SLIDE 45
Adapting: Urban Tree Canopy
A mature, deciduous tree intercepts 500-2000 gallons of water per year. A mature evergreen intercepts up to 4000 gallons of water per year.
A Recurring Theme: Trees
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The best adaptation practice is preserving natural infrastructure.
SLIDE 47 Natural Space Loss: Racing Time and Space
Developed 22% Protected 25% Unprotected Undeveloped 53%
SLIDE 48 Natural Space Loss: Racing Time and Space
Developed 22% Protected 25% Unprotected Undeveloped Less Resilient 23% Unprotected Undeveloped Resilient 30%
SLIDE 49 MAPPR: Identifying High-Priority Habitat
- Connectivity to preserved land and open space
- Parcel size
- Resilience to
climate change
massaudubon.org/MAPPR
SLIDE 50
Key Takeaways
Outdated assessments do not capture continual change. Annual precipitation likely to increase Extreme precipitation more likely Sea level rise will drive greater flood risk.
SLIDE 51 Key Resources:
Precipitation Tools
precip.eas.cornell.edu
Surging Seas
sealevel.climatecentral.org
Resilience Toolkit
toolkit.climate.gov
SLIDE 52 Activity! Consider Climate.
- Get back into your small groups.
Complete Part 2 of the Worksheet.
- As you fill in the worksheet. Use post-its to
place your assets on the Risk Matrix.
- We’ll discuss the results as a large group.
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SLIDE 54 Discussion
- What were common themes you heard?
- Common types of impacts?
- What places in the watershed (if any) are
vulnerable?
- How might climate change impact our
community example?
SLIDE 55 The Healthy Communities Project is a partnership among Mass Audubon, Manomet, The Nature Conservancy, the Metropolitan Area Planning Council, and the Southeast Region Planning and Economic Development District. A project of the Resilient Taunton Watershed Network, this work is made possible by funding through the Environmental Protection Agency.
Although the information in this document has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, it has not undergone the Agency’s publications review process and therefore, may not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred. The viewpoints expressed here do not necessarily represent those of the NBEP, NEIWPCC, or U.S. EPA nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or causes constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. Materials included here are provided by the Healthy Communities partners free of charge for non-commercial purposes. Notification of any public use of Healthy Communities materials should be sent to dbrown@massaudubon.org. The Healthy Communities partners are not responsible for the statements,
- pinions, or viewpoints of personnel unaffiliated with RTWN. These materials were last updated January 6, 2017.
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