Session 2: Climate Change Impacts in Eastern Massachusetts
Why Consider Climate Change? Climate change amplifies existing threats and opportunities. By using green infrastructure to prepare for climate change, we: • Protect the health of our community • Become more economically resilient • Make our communities more livable for future generations
Greenhouse Gases Carbon dioxide (CO) 2 Methane (CH 4 ) and Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) Fluorinated gases (CFCs) Water Vapor
Historic CO 2 Concentration A natural change of 100ppm normally occurs over 5,000 to 20,000 years . The recent increase of 100ppm has taken 120 years . Fact Source: EPA. Image Source, Scripps Institute of Oceanography
Global T emperature Observations Lowest Emissions Future warming is Mean “Paris Agreement” expected to continue 6.6°F High “Business as Usual” or accelerate. Global temperatures Emissions increased by 1.53°F (0.85°C) Mean from 1880 to 2012 . 3.5°F Observations In New England, temperatures could increase by about 10°F or more by 2100. From Knutti and Sedlacek, 2012
Massachusetts Key Observed Climate Changes 2.8°F Temperature: Since 1895 10 Days Growing Season: Since 1950 10 inches Sea Level Rise: Since 1922 71% Strong Storms: Since 1958
2100 Rising T emperatures in Massachusetts Mid-century Observed Paris Agreement 4 to 7 ° F 7 to 10 ° F 2.8 ° F Warmer Warmer Warmer 2041-2070 2070-2099 1895-2015 Sources: UMass-Amherst, Northeast Climate Science Center, Third National Climate Assessment, NOAA CLIMDIV dataset.
What’s in a degree?
Extreme Heat in Massachusetts Projected by Current Mid-Century Days per year above 90°F ≤15 +30 to 40 Days per year above ≤5 +3 to 9 95°F Days per year above 100°F ≤1 +1 to 5 Source: NOAA NESDIS
Migrating Massachusetts By the end of the century, summers in Massachusetts will “feel” more like summers in the South.
Longer Frost-free Season 10 Days Observed After 1960 1-2 Months Projected 2071-2099 From the 3 rd National Climate Assessment, 2014
Future Forests Maple, Beech, Birch Oak, Hickory
Shifting Plant Hardiness Zones Maps, modified: Arbor Day Foundation, USDA
Challenges of Habitat and Wildlife Change Climate change alters habitats and food sources faster than many species can adapt. Pests and disease vectors change. Recreational priorities change. Third National Climate Assessment
Rising Temperatures Bring More Rain or Snow To understand why, you need only consider your morning coffee.
More More evaporation fuel for storms More More precipitation Heat
More Precipitation Total annual precipitation has increased by: 15% 1.2 trillion more gallons of water or equivalent snow falling on Massachusetts each year. ~9,700 filled Prudential Towers Changes are calculated from a linear regression of annual totals from 1895-2015, 1901-2000 reference period. Source: NOAA
More Extreme Precipitation 71% Observed 1958-2012 The amount falling in the heaviest 1% of precipitation events increased by 71% in the Northeast from 1958 to 2012. Following methodology from Groisman et al, 2005, updated.
Change in 24-hour, 100-year Design Storms (inches) NOAA Atlas 14 Change NOAA TP-40 Taunton 6.9” 7.7” +0.8” Boston 6.6” 7.8” +1.2” Worcester 6.5” 7.6” +1.1” NOAA Atlas 14: http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/
NRCC Change in Design Storms (24-hour, 100-year, inches) Change NOAA TP-40 NRCC/Cornell Taunton 6.9” 7.78” +0.9” Boston 6.6” 7.82” +1.2” Worcester 6.5” 7.84” +1.1” NRCC Cornell Extreme Precipitation in NY and NE: http://precip.eas.cornell.edu/
NRCC Change in Design Storms (24-hour, 100-year, inches, %) Change NOAA TP-40 NRCC/Cornell Taunton 6.9” 7.78” 15% Boston 6.6” 7.82” 19% Worcester 6.5” 7.84” 17% NRCC Cornell Extreme Precipitation in NY and NE: http://precip.eas.cornell.edu/
An anecdotal rule of thumb for anticipating changes in extreme precipitation… Models often project a return period shorter by a factor of 2 to 4. Often: 100-year 25-year 10-year storm storm storm But projections vary place-to-place.
An anecdotal rule of thumb for anticipating changes in extreme precipitation… Models often project a return period shorter by a factor of 2 to 4. Often: 1% 4% 10% Annual Chance Annual Chance Annual Chance But projections vary place-to-place.
Projected Change: Precipitation % Change in Seasonal Precipitation by end-of-century (compared to 1970-1999) under Higher Emissions Scenario Winter Summer +10 to 20% -10 to +10% Adapted from NCA 2013, Fig. 2.14 25
Precipitation Impacts: Seasonal Changes and Water Supply Changing Seasonal Precipitation: Warmer springs and more precipitation increase the potential for mixed precipitation and variable spring weather. Summer Water Availability: Even as annual total precipitation increases, summers may become drier.
Long- term change doesn’t rule out shorter-term variability. Example: Even as average temperatures warm, we will still experience winter storms.
2016: 4 th Warmest June-Aug 5 th Driest (PDSI) on record
Snow Cover Decreasing Area projected to have at least 30 days of snow cover per year Frumhoff, P.C., et al. 2007. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, Solutions . Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists
Water Infrastructure Freeze Vulnerability Rising winter temperatures are reducing spring snow cover. + Risk of spring cold snaps has remained relatively stable. = Increased subsurface freeze risk
Sea Level Rise: Marshfield Assuming 6 ft of sea level rise. Available from the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer
Sea Level Rise: Dighton Assuming 6 ft of sea level rise. Available from the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer
Coastal Flooding
Salt Marsh Migration
Public Health: Ticks and Lyme Disease
Public Health: Algal Blooms West Monponsett Pond, Halifax, Massachusetts Greater Nutrient Loading Stronger Storms More Runoff Warmer Lake Changed Lake Algal Blooms, Temperatures Dynamics Fish Kills
A Global Problem with Local Solutions Local land use decisions drastically alter the severity of climate change impacts. Image at right: Floodwaters from the Taunton River flood the junction of Route 44 and Route 104 in Taunton, photo: AP.
How do we address the problem? • Mitigate the most dangerous impacts. • Adapt to unavoidable changes. massadapt.org Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions will reduce future need for adaptation efforts.
Adaptation and Mitigation Projected Global Average Temperature Adaptation Mitigation
Adaptation Example: Bioswales
Mitigation Example: Offshore Wind Block Island Wind Farm, DeepWater Wind
Adaptation: Convince residents to start near home. Adopt a drain. Adopt a tree. Adopt a neighbor.
A Recurring Theme: Trees Adapting: Urban Tree Canopy A mature, deciduous tree intercepts 500-2000 gallons of water per year. A mature evergreen intercepts up to 4000 gallons of water per year.
The best adaptation practice is preserving natural infrastructure.
Natural Space Loss: Racing Time and Space Developed 22% Unprotected Undeveloped 53% Protected 25%
Natural Space Loss: Racing Time and Space Unprotected Developed Undeveloped 22% Resilient 30% Protected Unprotected 25% Undeveloped Less Resilient 23%
MAPPR: Identifying High-Priority Habitat • Connectivity to preserved land and open space • Parcel size • Resilience to climate change • Unique settings massaudubon.org/MAPPR
Key Takeaways Annual precipitation likely to increase Extreme precipitation more likely Outdated assessments do not capture continual change. Sea level rise will drive greater flood risk.
Key Resources: • NOAA Atlas 14 or NRCC Precipitation Tools precip.eas.cornell.edu • Climate Central’s Surging Seas sealevel.climatecentral.org • U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit toolkit.climate.gov
Activity! Consider Climate. • Get back into your small groups. Complete Part 2 of the Worksheet. • As you fill in the worksheet. Use post-its to place your assets on the Risk Matrix. • We’ll discuss the results as a large group.
Discussion • What were common themes you heard? • Common types of impacts? • What places in the watershed (if any) are vulnerable? • How might climate change impact our community example?
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