DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE NORTH CALDWELL PUBLIC SCHOOLS March 12, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE NORTH CALDWELL PUBLIC SCHOOLS March 12, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 03, 2023 233 likes •435 views

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE NORTH CALDWELL PUBLIC SCHOOLS March 12, 2019 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY Update to demographic study completed in January 2017 Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2019-20 through 2023-24 Analyze districts

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March 12, 2019

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE NORTH CALDWELL PUBLIC SCHOOLS

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  • Update to demographic study completed

in January 2017

  • Project grade-by-grade enrollments from

2019-20 through 2023-24

  • Analyze district’s historical enrollments,

birth counts, home sales

  • Determine impact of new developments
  • n enrollment

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

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  • District’s 2018-19 enrollment is 676.
  • Enrollment has been within a narrow

band since 2010-11 (658-690)

  • Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR)

was used to project enrollment five years into the future

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS

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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT 2009-10 TO 2018-19

640 661 675 682 670 658 673 690 676 676

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

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ANNUAL PK-6 ENROLLMENT CHANGE

21 14 7

  • 12
  • 12

15 17

  • 14
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

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SLIDE 6

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS BY LEVEL

359 380 390 406 397 385 392 412 389 399 281 281 285 276 273 273 281 278 287 277

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

  • Gr. PK-3
  • Gr. 4-6
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  • Ratios are calculated for each grade
  • progression. (Ex. 100 1st graders in 2017-

18 become 95 2nd graders in 2018-19 = 0.95)

  • Survival ratios were computed for ten

historical years

  • Six of 7 average ratios were above 1.000

reflecting inward migration

  • Averages were then computed and used

to project future enrollments

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO

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  • From 2004-2017, births have ranged

from 34-66 with no apparent increasing or declining trend.

  • Births are typically used to project

kindergarten students 5 years later

BIRTHS

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BIRTH RATES AND BIRTH-TO- KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS

Birth Year Number of Births North Caldwell Kindergarten Students Five Years Later Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratio

2004 55 76 1.382 2005 51 92 1.804 2006 52 93 1.788 2007 61 80 1.311 2008 45 89 1.978 2009 39 82 2.103 2010 54 86 1.593 2011 45 92 2.044 2012 40 69 1.725 2013 41 85 2.073 2014 66 N/A N/A 2015 34 N/A N/A 2016 43 N/A N/A 2017 53 N/A N/A

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NORTH CALDWELL HISTORICAL BIRTHS 2004-2017

55 51 52 61 45 39 54 45 40 41 66 34 43 53

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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SLIDE 11

NEW HOUSING

Development Number

  • f Uni

Units Housing ng T Typ ype Note tes Hillt illtop 3 3 50 Affordable Apts. 10 1-BR 27 2-BR 13 3-BR To begin construction in 2019. Hillt illtop 3 3 62 Detached Single-Family Under construction Approximately four or five COs have been issued. Ten additional units are under construction. Kle leid idisch (Mountai ain A Ave.) .) 5 Detached Single-Family Under construction Two (2) COs have been issued. To Total 67 Detached Single-Family 50 Affordable Rental Apartments

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 Green Brook Country Club (“GBCC”) could be redeveloped beginning in February 2021 if not financially viable. Would consist of up to 299 units:

 160 age-restricted stacked condo or townhouse units  89-99 market-rate townhouses. The units cannot have more than three bedrooms, although the exact bedroom distribution is unknown.  50 affordable apartments with 1-3 bedrooms (half of the units would be for seniors; the remaining half would be non age-restricted)  80-130 beds for assisted living (10% of beds will be affordable)

NEW HOUSING-GBCC

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 Student yields from Rutgers University (2018) were used to estimate number of new children.  In total, 76 children are projected. To avoid over-estimation, GBCC children are not included in enrollment projections.

  • Hilltop 3 (SF and Apts.) – 47
  • Kleidisch – 2
  • GBCC – 24

STUDENT YIELDS

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NORTH CALDWELL HOME SALES 2001-2018

62 46 48 72 50 50 27 74 58 50 58 98 146 101 114 81 97 87

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ADJUSTED FOR HOUSING GROWTH

685 699 720 713 704 687 703 724 717 711

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24

CSR 5-Yr. CSR 6-Yr.

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PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE CONFIGURATION

Historical PK-3 4-6

2018-19

399 277

Projected PK-3 CSR 5-YR PK-3 CSR 6-YR 4-6 CSR 5-YR 4-6 CSR 6-YR

2019-20 394 396 291 291 2020-21 400 404 299 299 2021-22 427 432 293 292 2022-23 424 431 289 286 2023-24 418 426 286 285 5-year Change +19 +27 +9 +8

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CAPACITY ANALYSIS

Schoo hool Ca Capa pacity Actual l Enrollm llment 2018-19 19 Dif ifference Projected Enrollm llment 2023 2023-24 Dif ifference Gr Grand ndview S School (PK-3)

315 399

  • 84

426

  • 111

Go Gould S Scho hool (4-6) 6)

270 277

  • 7

285

  • 15
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 Enrollments are projected to be higher at the end of the 5-year projection period, primarily due to new housing.  Enrollment could increase further at end

  • f projection period if GBCC is

redeveloped. SUMMARY

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