East Asia and the Demographic Dividend: Lessons for Africa? High - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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East Asia and the Demographic Dividend: Lessons for Africa? High - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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East Asia and the Demographic Dividend: Lessons for Africa? High Level Symposium on the Demographic Dividend and Development in Africa Andrew Mason East West Center and University of Hawaii at Manoa Dakar, Senegal, 20 June 2016 Percent Children,

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East Asia and the Demographic Dividend: Lessons for Africa?

High Level Symposium on the Demographic Dividend and Development in Africa

Andrew Mason East‐West Center and University of Hawaii at Manoa Dakar, Senegal, 20 June 2016

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Percent Children, South Korea and Senegal, 1950 – 2065.

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Percentage of population 0‐24 Republic of Korea Senegal Source: UN Population Division (2015) World Population Prospects.

Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

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Total consumption and labor income by age, Korea, 2010

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Won (billions) Age Consumption Labor Income

Source: Sang-Hyop Lee, et al., 2016. Labor income funds 86% of consumption.

Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

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Total consumption and labor income by age, Senegal, 2011

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Billions (CFA) Age Labor income Consumption

Source: Latif Dramani et al., 2016. Labor income funds 68% of consumption.

Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

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Total consumption and labor income by age, Korea, 2010

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Won (billions) Age Consumption Labor Income

Source: Sang-Hyop Lee, et al., 2016. 31 percent of all consumption is devoted to children (under age 25)

Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

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Total consumption and labor income by age, Senegal, 2011

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Billions (CFA) Age Labor income Consumption

Source: Latif Dramani et al., 2016. 65 percent of all consumption is devoted to children (under age 25)

Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

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Per capita consumption

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Per capita consumption Age Republic of Korea Senegal Note: Consumption expressed relative to average labor income of those 30-49. Sources: Dramani et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2016.

Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

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Per capita consumption

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Per capita consumption Age Republic of Korea Senegal Note: Consumption expressed relative to average labor income of those 30-49. Sources: Dramani et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2016.

Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

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Per capita spending on children

40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Consumption 65+/25‐64 Consumption 0‐24/25‐64 Africa Asian Tigers

Republic of Korea Senegal

Source: National Transfer Accounts 2016. NTA Data Sheet.

Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

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Human Capital – Fertility Tradeoff

Source: National Transfer Accounts 2016. NTA Data Sheet.

Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

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Acknowledgements

  • Research teams in more than 70 high‐ and low‐income economies
  • National Institute on Aging;
  • International Development Research Centre (IDRC) of Canada;
  • William and Flora Hewlett Foundation;
  • Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Gates Institute for

Population and Reproductive Health at the Bloomberg School of Public Health;

  • United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA);
  • United Nations Population Division;
  • Asian Development Bank; the World Bank;
  • John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation;
  • European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for Research,

Technological Development, and Demonstration;

  • Japanese government’s Academic Frontier Project for Private Universities.

Andrew Mason June 20, 2016