Message 1: GDP growth was considerable and did not lag behind Asian - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
H IGH - LEVEL P ANEL OF S TAKEHOLDERS AND P ARTNERS P ANEL I: D ECENT J OBS FOR Y OUTH : T HE ROAD FOR SOCIO - ECONOMIC PROGRESS AND SOCIAL JUSTICE Dorothea Schmidt Employment Specialist Decent Work Team for North Africa S TAKEHOLDERS AND D
HIGH-LEVEL PANEL OF STAKEHOLDERS AND PARTNERS
PANEL I: DECENT JOBS FOR YOUTH: THE ROAD FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROGRESS AND SOCIAL
JUSTICE
Dorothea Schmidt Employment Specialist Decent Work Team for North Africa
EMPLOYMENT FOR STABILITY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROGRESS
IN NORTH AFRICA
Cairo, 18-19th April 2012
Message 1: GDP growth was considerable and did not lag behind Asian tigers
Source: IMF, October 2011
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012p GDP grwoth rates % Developed Economies & European Union Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS East Asia South-East Asia & the Pacific South Asia Latin America & the Caribbean Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
Message 2: Job creation did take place, the employment response to output growth in the Arab countries was almost double that in the Asian economies (respectively 55% compared to 30%)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Developed Economies & … Central & South-Eastern Europe … East Asia South-East Asia & the Pacific South Asia Latin America & the Caribbean Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Job increases between 1991 and 2012 (in %)
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011
Message 3: Education has improved in terms of numbers, especially for women; in terms of quality the progress has been less obvious.
Message 4: Demographic trends are (still) positive
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011
0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Labour Dependency Ratio
North Africa
Message 5: Labour market
Challenge 1: High unemployment rates, especially for young people and women
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011
Youth unemployment (15-24 years) rates by world regions
5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 %
WORLD Developed Economies & European Union Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS East Asia South-East Asia & the Pacific South Asia Latin America & the Caribbean Middle East North Africa
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011
Challenge 2: High unemployment rates across all income and education levels
Source: World Bank, 2009
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
WORLD
Central & SE Europe (non-EU) & CIS East Asia SEA Asia & the Pacific South Asia Latin America & the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa GCC Non-GCC North Africa
Male labour force participation rate (%) 2011 Female labour force participation rate (%) 2011 Youth labour force participation rate (%) 2011 Adult labour force participation rate (%) 2011
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011
Challenge 3: Low labour force participation rates
Challenge 4: High employment dependency ratio
2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
North Africa
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011
Table 2: Number of jobs (millions) that would need to be created by 2016 (various scenarios) If the LFP rate Remains constant at its 2011 level Increases to 60% If unemployment rate Constant at 2011 Reduced to 6% Reduced to 6% North Africa 6,3 10,1 27,9
Challenge 5: Demand side constraints
Source: Author’s calculations based on ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011
Challenge 6: Lack of high quality employment
Indicator 1: Vulnerable employment
Indicator 2: Working poverty at the US$ 2 a day level
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011
Challenge 7: high public employment share (between 10 and 80 per cent)
Source: ILO, 2012
Productivity levels and changes measured as output (in total US$) per person employed, world regions 1991 to 2011
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
WORLD Developed Economies & EU Central & SEEurope (non-EU) & CIS Sub-Saharan Africa South-East Asia & the Pacific South Asia Latin America & the Caribbean Middle East East Asia North Africa
41.04% 33.04% 22.51% 356.70% 76.5% 139.40% 15.44% 10.64% 22.23% 17.80%
Total US$
1991 2011
Challenge 8: Lack of productivity growth
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011
Challenge 9: Slow structural shifts
Manufacturing Services
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011
Challenge 10: Social Protection coverage is very low
and North Africa
Percentage of people covered
Source: ILO, 2012
Challenge 11: Lack of social dialogue linked to governments (prior to the revolutions) non-representation of youth and women Challenge 12: Non-conducive environment for enterprise creation (especially MSMEs) Challenge 13: Weak employment policies Lack of implementation Challenge 14: Mismanaged migration Brain drain, bad working conditions, discrimination Challenge 15: Lack of solid and transparent labour market information
It is not a surprise that these labour market deficiencies
added to the frustration of people in the region and continue to be one of the main drivers of protest in all countries
The challenges need to be tackled to ensure social
stability and economic progress
It is not about creating any jobs, it is about creating
decent jobs
The challenges can only be solved if all partners will be
involved