Demographic Coppell Update Independent Fall 2017 School - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Coppell Independent School District Demographic Update Fall 2017

Economic Conditions – DFW Area (September 2017)

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Unemployment Rate

• 0.9%

99,800 new jobs National rate 1.2%

Job Growth

2.8%

2,651 more starts than 3Q16

Annual Home Starts

32,086

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 4.1% Texas 4.0% DFW MSA 3.4% Coppell 3.0%

Local Economic Update

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Stand Rock Hospitality Resort

• Grapevine City Council approved a $9 million

incentive package to bring a Stand Rock Hospitality Resort to Grapevine

• Will include indoor and outdoor waterpark, laser

tag, ropes course, a spa, meeting facilities, and

• approx. 20 million visitors per year
• First phase will include 420 hotel rooms and

170,000 sq. ft. of water park amenities

• Phase one cost- $170 million
• Create more than 1,000 jobs
• Total cost- $330 million
• Opens doors in 2019
• Source: Grapevine Economic Development Board

Pioneer Natural Resources

• Relocating to the Verizon campus on Hidden Ridge

in Las Colinas at the beginning of 2018

• Estimated $6 million in economic incentives
• 1.2 million sq. ft. of corporate offices
• Includes plans to develop a 200 room full-service

hotel, 1,200 apartments or residences, 80,000 sq. ft.

• f restaurant and retail space, and a 2-acre green

space with amenities on the historic Carpenter Ranch

• 110-acre mixed use development sit adjacent to a

DART rail station

• Total construction costs $344 million
• Source: Dallas Business Journal

Coppell ISD Home Sales

January – October 2017 Home Sales by Price

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• Coppell ISD has had 955 home sales to date 2017, and roughly 31% were of new homes
• The average sale price in 2017 for a new home in CISD is $521,380
• The average sale price in 2017 for an existing home in CISD is $414,053

New Home Sale 31% Regular Resale 67% Foreclosure Sale 1% REO Sale 1%

2017 District Home Sales by Type

DFW New Home Ranking Report

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ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q17

*Based on additional TD Research

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,552 2,681 4,067 6,325 2 Prosper ISD 2,804 2,524 5,703 25,970 3 Denton ISD 2,014 1,963 2,569 20,596 4 Northwest ISD 1,976 1,863 2,074 24,277 5 Dallas ISD 1,939 1,739 2,088 7,298 6 Lewisville ISD 1,141 1,277 1,493 4,749 7 Rockwall ISD 943 1,005 1,917 8,053 8 Little Elm ISD 1,465 1,002 1,383 3,586 9 McKinney ISD 847 827 1,504 8,253 10 Wylie ISD 865 801 1,006 4,313 11 Keller ISD 690 795 826 1,961 12 Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD 1,081 776 1,417 19,107 13 Mansfield ISD 616 710 857 7,133 14 Forney ISD 916 684 1,530 14,322 15 Allen ISD 683 634 1,094 1,713 16 Crowley ISD 599 632 1,049 12,551 17 Garland ISD 494 604 453 4,102 18 Midlothian ISD 686 582 1,402 19,477 19 Fort Worth ISD 567 476 964 4,499 20 Waxahachie ISD 497 476 910 9,453 21 Coppell ISD 430 455 331 693* 22 Plano ISD 487 441 1,153 2,184 23 Aledo ISD 480 379 1,216 14,845 24 HEB ISD 407 364 698 4,377 25 Princeton ISD 399 351 228 5,278

New Housing Activity

• Coppell ISD started more than 100 homes for the third consecutive quarter, and

is on pace to start more than 400 homes in 2017

• The district is on pace to close more than 400 homes by the end of 2017
• New home inventory is healthy at 6.9 month’s supply

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Coppell ISD

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Starts Closings

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q 27 22 29 78 126 101 1Q 20 15 22 88 96 99 2Q 29 25 41 89 97 128 2Q 24 31 21 67 103 122 3Q 46 23 83 158 145 108 3Q 26 30 26 80 162 112 4Q 20 30 66 114 93 4Q 33 22 20 107 122 Total 122 100 219 439 461 337 Total 103 98 89 342 483 333

Annual Closings Distribution 3Q17

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Top 5 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings Quarter Closings VDL Future 1 PARKSIDE WEST 140 46 159 182 2 BRIDGES AT LAS COLINAS 97 26 2 3 PARKSIDE EAST 92 20 15 4 WESTHAVEN (COTTONWOOD CREEK) 29 5 18 5 EAST LAKE 27 8 TOTALS 385 105 194 182

Vacant Developed Lots 3Q17

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Top 5 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by Vacant Developed Lots) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings VDL Future 1 PARKSIDE WEST 140 159 182 2 WESTHAVEN (TOWN CENTER) 25 86 3 KYRA COURT 20 4 RED HAWK VILLAS 3 19 5 WESTHAVEN (COTTONWOOD CREEK) 29 18 TOTALS 197 302 182

Future Lots 3Q17

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Top 5 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings VDL Future 1 SOUTHHAVEN (WEST CELL) 215 2 STONEGATE (IRVING) 206 3 PARKSIDE WEST 140 159 182 4 BLACKBERRY FARM ADDITION 80 5 PETTERSON ADDITION 7 TOTALS 140 159 690

New Home Activity by Elementary Zone

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Elementary Zone Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Under Construction Inventory VDL Futures AUSTIN 2 2 13 2 2 20 215 COTTONWOOD CREEK 28 10 29 5 15 23 18 DENTON CREEK LAKESIDE 1 7 1 1 80 LEE 258 54 237 72 82 137 161 388 MOCKINGBIRD PINKERTON 97 37 110 20 46 64 23 3 TOWN CENTER 40 3 52 15 15 25 86 WILSON 4 2 7 5 9 23 7 Grand Total 430 108 455 112 166 261 331 693

Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category

District Housing Overview

11 Active Subdivision Future Subdivision

• Coppell ISD has appx. 330 lots available to build on
• The district has nearly 480 future lots planned
• Groundwork is underway on nearly 400 lots

Residential Activity

Cypress Waters

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Cypress Waters

• Developer estimates 10,000 housing units at full

build-out

• 761 apartment units have been constructed to date
• The Sound Apartments Phase 1 (700 units) under

construction, first units available 1Q18

• Developer projects adding 500 additional units

between spring 2018-spring 2019

• Single family removed from updated concept plan
• Full build out is estimated to take 20-30 years
• Current multi-family student yield: 0.18
• Split between Austin and Lee Elementary

Existing multi-family The Sound Phase 1

Residential Activity

Parkside West and Parkside East

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Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD

Parkside West

• 638 total lots
• 182 future lots
• 195 homes occupied
• 64 U/C
• 159 VDL
• Phase 2C delivered in Oct. 2017
• Groundwork underway on Phase 2B

(final 106 lots) homes starting fall 2018

• Building 150 homes per year
• $400K - $630K
• Current student yield: 0.73
• Lee Elementary

Parkside East

• 249 total lots
• 191 homes occupied
• 26 U/C
• 15 VDL
• Built out spring 2018
• $400K - $650K
• Current student yield: 0.74
• Pinkerton Elementary

Residential Activity

Stonegate & The Bridges at Las Colinas

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Stonegate

• 206 total future lots
• First lots delivering by 1Q18
• First residents expected summer 2018
• Built out by Fall of 2020
• Lee Elementary

The Bridges at Las Colinas

• 399 total lots
• 362 occupied
• 18 U/C
• 2 VDL
• Built out by end 2017
• $475K-$680K
• Current student yield: 0.72
• Lee Elementary

Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD

Residential Activity

Red Hawk Villas

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Red Hawk Villas

• 51 total lots
• 27 occupied
• 4 U/C
• 19 VDL
• $550K- $865K
• Building 3-5 homes per year
• Current student yield: 0.11
• Wilson Elementary

Future Residential Activity

Southaven (aka. West Cell)

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Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD

Southaven

• 215 total future lots
• Zoning was approved March 2017
• Initial groundwork underway
• Homes starting late summer 2018
• Austin Elementary

2017-18 Multi-Family Yield

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• Coppell ISD has 2,562

students residing in nearly 5,050 multi-family units

• CISD average MF yield = 0.54

Ten Year Forecast

By Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

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• Coppell ISD will likely exceed 13,000 students by 2019
• 5 year growth = 1,136 students
• 2022/23 enrollment = 13,750 students
• 10 year growth = 1,385 students
• 2027/28 enrollment = 13,999 students

Year (Oct.) EE Pre-K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2013/14 49 139 742 784 861 843 873 901 896 874 901 924 894 869 814 11,364 2014/15 40 122 739 791 830 899 910 930 963 930 900 927 889 871 829 11,570 206 1.8% 2015/16 50 153 740 803 841 889 949 940 957 973 960 945 928 880 873 11,881 311 2.7% 2016/17 98 167 826 821 862 928 896 985 1,031 997 1,003 1,039 962 892 863 12,370 489 4.1% 2017/18 44 207 807 899 857 926 947 951 1,047 1,062 1,018 1,058 996 936 859 12,614 244 2.0% 2018/19 44 207 808 876 946 900 964 993 1,017 1,087 1,104 1,108 1,034 956 911 12,955 341 2.7% 2019/20 44 207 809 868 912 983 926 1,007 1,065 1,058 1,122 1,175 1,089 989 928 13,182 227 1.8% 2020/21 44 207 822 883 915 956 1,024 965 1,082 1,107 1,094 1,212 1,144 1,048 958 13,461 279 2.1% 2021/22 44 207 824 889 912 945 987 1,060 1,040 1,112 1,153 1,177 1,185 1,098 1,017 13,650 189 1.4% 2022/23 44 207 842 889 912 943 973 1,024 1,126 1,078 1,152 1,234 1,136 1,138 1,052 13,750 99 0.7% 2023/24 44 207 863 910 908 940 966 999 1,083 1,157 1,118 1,235 1,200 1,092 1,111 13,833 84 0.6% 2024/25 44 207 869 932 936 939 967 999 1,052 1,113 1,201 1,201 1,200 1,153 1,057 13,870 36 0.3% 2025/26 44 207 880 930 958 970 965 1,001 1,052 1,082 1,154 1,261 1,149 1,152 1,093 13,898 28 0.2% 2026/27 44 207 890 948 955 992 998 999 1,052 1,083 1,122 1,230 1,218 1,104 1,110 13,952 54 0.4% 2027/28 44 207 901 959 974 988 1,019 1,034 1,052 1,083 1,124 1,196 1,188 1,170 1,060 13,999 47 0.3%

Ten Year Forecast

By Elementary Campus

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• Lee Elementary is expected to enroll more than 900 students by 2018 and

more than 1,000 by 2019

• Coppell ISD is expected to add 100 elementary students next fall

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Name Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 Austin Elementary 600 712 712 736 754 777 783 792 812 828 842 856 868 Cottonwood Creek Elementary 600 537 499 472 444 422 425 399 408 411 413 416 421 Denton Creek Elementary 600 531 466 431 405 387 381 373 383 396 405 409 410 Lakeside Elementary 600 473 530 528 510 512 518 505 500 498 499 510 519 Lee Elementary 740 734 820 923 1,019 1,094 1,153 1,217 1,237 1,282 1,327 1,367 1,406 Mockingbird Elementary 600 538 514 499 485 467 462 445 453 456 453 452 456 Pinkerton Elementary 400 393 421 442 474 470 464 456 448 445 444 445 458 Town Center Elementary 600 550 577 596 589 616 601 571 550 532 530 530 529 Valley Ranch Elementary 600 632 626 633 605 584 582 564 546 545 548 556 563 Wilson Elementary 600 483 473 478 471 487 499 512 500 500 494 492 496 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 5,583 5,638 5,738 5,756 5,816 5,868 5,834 5,837 5,893 5,955 6,033 6,126 Elementary Absolute Change 218 55 100 18 60 52

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3 56 62 78 93 Elementary Percent Change 4.06% 0.99% 1.77% 0.31% 1.04% 0.89%

• 0.58%

0.05% 0.96% 1.05% 1.31% 1.54%

Ten Year Forecast

By Middle School & High School Campus

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• Coppell Middle School West is currently over stated capacity
• Total middle school enrollment is expected to reach 3,200 students by 2018
• Coppell 9th Grade Center is opening in Fall 2018

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

HISTORY Current

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus Name Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 Coppell Middle School East 1,000 982 973 936 943 951 980 995 966 948 914 923 935 Coppell Middle School North 1,050 940 949 959 983 986 967 957 945 941 878 843 830 Coppell Middle School West 1,100 1,109 1,205 1,313 1,319 1,346 1,358 1,404 1,447 1,477 1,496 1,491 1,494 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 3,031 3,127 3,208 3,245 3,283 3,305 3,356 3,358 3,366 3,288 3,257 3,259 Middle School Absolute Change 142 96 81 37 38 22 51 2 8

• 78
• 31

2 Middle School Percent Change 4.92% 3.17% 2.59% 1.15% 1.17% 0.67% 1.54% 0.06% 0.24%

• 2.32%
• 0.94%

0.06% Coppell 9th Grade Center 983 1,072 1,082 1,058 1,116 1,113 1,081 1,141 1,109 1,076 Coppell High School 3,600 3,431 3,532 2,657 2,737 2,867 2,989 3,020 3,085 3,098 3,083 3,119 3,105 New Tech High School 500 325 317 369 372 413 430 424 440 432 431 434 433 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,756 3,849 4,009 4,181 4,362 4,477 4,560 4,638 4,611 4,655 4,662 4,614 High School Absolute Change 131 93 160 172 181 115 82 79

• 28

44 7

• 48

High School Percent Change 3.61% 2.48% 4.16% 4.30% 4.32% 2.65% 1.83% 1.73%

• 0.59%

0.96% 0.15%

• 1.02%

DISTRICT TOTALS 12,370 12,614 12,955 13,182 13,461 13,650 13,750 13,833 13,870 13,898 13,952 13,999 District Absolute Change 489 244 341 227 279 189 99 84 36 28 54 47 District Percent Change 4.12% 1.97% 2.70% 1.75% 2.11% 1.41% 0.73% 0.61% 0.26% 0.20% 0.39% 0.34%

Summary

• Coppell’s unemployment rate is currently 3%.
• The average new home sale price within the district is more

than $520,000.

• The district is on pace to start more than 400 new homes for

the third straight year.

• 700 new multi-family units are under construction within

Cypress Waters.

• CISD can expect an increase of approximately 1,140

students during the next 5 years.

• CISD is projected to enroll nearly 14,000 students by 2027.

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