Alison Preston Women in Social & Economic Research (WiSER) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alison Preston Women in Social & Economic Research (WiSER) Curtin Graduate School of Business 78 Murray Street Perth Emerging Issues Community Sector Leaders Forum

Plan • Overview of recent trends in – WA Economy – Population Growth – Labour Market – Wages • Discussion – Inequality – Insecure Work

Economic Growth Per cent 8 Western Australian Forecast Western Australia Australia long-run average 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 2014-15 Source: 2011-12 Budget Paper No 3 – Economic and Fiscal Outlook

State Final Demand, Seasonally Adjusted, Dec-09 to Dec-11 (Indexed to Dec 2009) 120.0 115.0 110.0 New South Wales % Victoria Queensland 105.0 Western Australia Australia 100.0 95.0 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Source: ABS 13500DO009_201204 Australian Economic Indicators, April 2012

Economic Growth QLD WA Australia Sep 2010-11 9.8% 16.6% 4.9% Dec 2010-11 10.0% 11.1% 4.4% Picture: Source: www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-08

Survey Sample: 404 adults • 22% respondents expect economic conditions to improve in next 3 months (down from 34% same time last year). • 12 month expectation at a new record low. • Older respondents more likely to expect deterioration. • Consumer sentiment low as respondents build financial Situation.

Average Annual Population Growth Rates, Australia & WA 2001-2011 (%) 3.0 2.5 WA Persons 2.0 Australia Persons % 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, Table 4

WA Population By Age, 2006, 2011 & 2020 450000 400000 2006 350000 2011 300000 2020 250000 number 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ Age Group Source: ABS 3222.0 Population Projections, Australia, Table 5B WA (Series B)

Employment Growth By Sex and Employed Status, 2000 to 2012 160.0 Males FT 150.0 Males PT 140.0 Females FT Females PT 130.0 % Growth 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: ABS 6202002

Total Employment WA, 2000 to 2012 (000s) 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 Females PT 800.0 Females FT Males PT 600.0 Males FT 400.0 200.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net Employment Growth By Sector, WA, 000s, Feb-2010 to Feb-2012 Mining Health Care and Social Assistance Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Retail Trade Manufacturing Construction Arts and Recreation Services Financial and Insurance Services Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Administrative and Support Services NB - red indicates Professional, Scientific and Technical Services female dominated sector Public Administration and Safety Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Accommodation and Food Services Information Media and Telecommunications Transport, Postal and Warehousing Wholesale Trade Other Services Education and Training -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 000s Source: ABS 6291.0.55.003 Labour Force, Detailed, Quarterly, Feb 2012. Table 05 Employed Persons by State and Industry, original series

Net Employment Growth By Sector, Australia, 000s, Feb-2010 to Feb-2012 Health Care and Social Assistance Mining Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Public Administration and Safety Education and Training Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Retail Trade Information Media and Telecommunications Other Services Construction Administrative and Support Services Financial and Insurance Services Arts and Recreation Services Accommodation and Food Services Transport, Postal and Warehousing Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Wholesale Trade Manufacturing -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Source: ABS 6291.0.55.003 Labour Force, Detailed, Quarterly, Feb 2012. Table 04 Employed Persons by Industry, Australia (original series)

Unemployment Rate (%), Persons, WA & Australia 5.6 5.4 Australia, 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 % 4.4 4.2 Western Australia, 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 Source: 13500DO009_201204 Australian Economic Indicators, April 2012, Table 10

WA Unemployment Rate, Underemployment Rate and Labour Force Underutilisaton Rate 18.0 16.0 13.2% 14.0 12.0 Underemp rate (M) 10.0 Underemp rate (F) % LF Underut rate (M) 8.0 LF Underut rate (F) 6.0 7.8% UR (M) UR (F) 4.0 2.0 0.0 Feb-2000 Aug-2000 Feb-2001 Aug-2001 Feb-2002 Aug-2002 Feb-2003 Aug-2003 Feb-2004 Aug-2004 Feb-2005 Aug-2005 Feb-2006 Aug-2006 Feb-2007 Aug-2007 Feb-2008 Aug-2008 Feb-2009 Aug-2009 Feb-2010 Aug-2010 Feb-2011 Aug-2011 Feb-2012 Source: 6202 Labour Force Australia, Table 8 and Table 23

Extended Labour Force Underutilisation Rate (%), August 2010 • Labour Force Underutilisation Rate (LFUR) = Unemployment rate + Underemployment rate • Extended Labour Force Underutilisation Rate = LFUR + Hidden Unemployed (discouraged workers) (those available to work, want to work but given up job search)

Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE), Adults Employed Full-Time; & State Minimum Wage, 2011 1850.00 1750.00 1650.00 1550.00 1450.00 1350.00 1250.00 Aus-Males $ Aus-Females 1150.00 WA-Males 1050.00 WA-Females 950.00 WA Min Wage 850.00 750.00 650.00 550.00 450.00 Feb-2000 Jul-2000 Dec-2000 May-2001 Oct-2001 Mar-2002 Aug-2002 Jan-2003 Jun-2003 Nov-2003 Apr-2004 Sep-2004 Feb-2005 Jul-2005 Dec-2005 May-2006 Oct-2006 Mar-2007 Aug-2007 Jan-2008 Jun-2008 Nov-2008 Apr-2009 Sep-2009 Feb-2010 Jul-2010 Dec-2010 May-2011 Oct-2011

WA % AWOTE – AWOTE – Weekly increase Adults – Adults – Min previous W.A. % Australia Wage year change % change 2006 $504.40 4.1% 3.4% 3.2% 2007 $528.40 4.8% 8.7% 5.0% 2008 $557.40 5.5% 7.5% 4.0% 2009 $569.70 2.2% 7.0% 6.1% 2010 $587.20 3.1% 6.0% 5.2% 2011 $607.10 2.75% 8.1% 4.4% NB: State wage adjustments apply from 1 July each year; AWOTE % change calculated for year to May using seasonally adjusted data from 6302.

% 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 May-1995 Oct-1995 Mar-1996 Aug-1996 Jan-1997 (AWOTE Women/Men Employed Full-Time) Jun-1997 Nov-1997 Gender Wage Ratio, Australia and WA Apr-1998 Sep-1998 Feb-1999 Jul-1999 Dec-1999 May-2000 Oct-2000 Mar-2001 Aug-2001 Jan-2002 Jun-2002 Nov-2002 Apr-2003 WA: 27.7% Australia: 17.6% Gender Wage Gap: Sep-2003 Feb-2004 Jul-2004 Dec-2004 May-2005 Oct-2005 Mar-2006 Aug-2006 Jan-2007 Jun-2007 Nov-2007 Apr-2008 Sep-2008 Feb-2009 Jul-2009 Dec-2009 May-2010 Oct-2010 Mar-2011 Aug-2011 WA Australia

In $ Terms, Nov 2011 Weekly Annual Men Women Difference Difference $247.90 $12,890.80 Australia $1,420.90 $1,173.00 WA $1,663.90 $1,221.30 $442.60 $23,015.20 … not to mention superannuation

Summary • WA economic growth very strong – 11.1%. • Consumer sentiment low (benefits of growth not being shared around). • Strong employment growth in recent years, particularly men employed part-time. • Top 3 sectors in WA: mining, health, real estate. • Bottom 3 sectors in WA: wholesale trade, other services and education and training. • Contrasts markedly with trends and developments nationally. Top nationally is health care. Education and training also in top 5. • WA unemployment rate record low but labour force underutilisation rate = 13.2% for women and 7.8% for men. • Wages growth has been particularly strong for men in full-time work and well above national averages. • WA Minimum wage has not kept pace. At Aug-06 the WA Min Wage/WA Male AWOTE = 43% ; At Nov 2011 = 36%. • Gender Wage Gap – largest ever = 27.7% or $23,015pa.

Discussion • Labour market highly gendered and segregated • Women continue to meet work and family needs through working part-time (often in insecure and low paid jobs). • Australian Institute for Employment Rights has identified the following ‘costs’ associated with insecure work: – Greater career instability – Higher unemployment risks – Lower upward mobility – Lower levels of remuneration – Income stress – Lower investment in training and skills development – Longer term economic penalties (particularly women) – Higher levels of job dissatisfaction – Higher propensity for mental health issues – Family stress and breakdown.

Source: Charlesworth et al., AJLE, Vol.14(1), 2011, p42

Discussion continued • ACTU inquiry on insecure work- – Rapid growth in non-standard employment in recent years. – 60% employees in FT or PT on-going work; Around 24% in casual work; 10% independent contractors. – Casual density: retail trade (40%); Accommodation & Food Services (65%). – 29% casuals want to work more hours than they currently work. • Submissions to the inquiry: – Focusing on intersection between insecure (casual) work and social security. – Penalties for those in receipt of benefits. Uncertainty around payments  breaches, stress etc. (disincentives to work). Picture Source: http://theconversation.edu.au 21 March 2012