Alison Preston Women in Social & Economic Research (WiSER) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alison Preston

Women in Social & Economic Research (WiSER) Curtin Graduate School of Business 78 Murray Street Perth

Emerging Issues Community Sector Leaders Forum

Plan

• Overview of recent trends in

– WA Economy – Population Growth – Labour Market – Wages

• Discussion

– Inequality – Insecure Work

• 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 2014-15 Western Australia Australia Per cent Forecast Western Australian long-run average

Economic Growth

Source: 2011-12 Budget Paper No 3 – Economic and Fiscal Outlook

95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 %

State Final Demand, Seasonally Adjusted, Dec-09 to Dec-11 (Indexed to Dec 2009)

New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia Australia

Source: ABS 13500DO009_201204 Australian Economic Indicators, April 2012

Economic Growth

QLD WA Australia Sep 2010-11 9.8% 16.6% 4.9% Dec 2010-11 10.0% 11.1% 4.4%

Picture: Source: www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-08

Survey Sample: 404 adults

• 22% respondents expect

economic conditions to improve in next 3 months (down from 34% same time last year).

• 12 month expectation at

a new record low.

• Older respondents more

likely to expect deterioration.

• Consumer sentiment low

as respondents build financial Situation.

Average Annual Population Growth Rates, Australia & WA 2001-2011 (%)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 %

WA Persons Australia Persons

Source: 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, Table 4

WA Population By Age, 2006, 2011 & 2020

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+

number Age Group

2006 2011 2020

Source: ABS 3222.0 Population Projections, Australia, Table 5B WA (Series B)

Employment Growth By Sex and Employed Status, 2000 to 2012

90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% Growth

Males FT Males PT Females FT Females PT

Source: ABS 6202002

Total Employment WA, 2000 to 2012 (000s)

0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 1200.0 1400.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Females PT Females FT Males PT Males FT

Net Employment Growth By Sector, WA, 000s, Feb-2010 to Feb-2012

Source: ABS 6291.0.55.003 Labour Force, Detailed, Quarterly, Feb 2012. Table 05 Employed Persons by State and Industry, original series

• 10
• 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Education and Training Other Services Wholesale Trade Transport, Postal and Warehousing Information Media and Telecommunications Accommodation and Food Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Public Administration and Safety Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Administrative and Support Services Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Financial and Insurance Services Arts and Recreation Services Construction Manufacturing Retail Trade Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Health Care and Social Assistance Mining 000s

NB - red indicates female dominated sector

Net Employment Growth By Sector, Australia, 000s, Feb-2010 to Feb-2012

Source: ABS 6291.0.55.003 Labour Force, Detailed, Quarterly, Feb 2012. Table 04 Employed Persons by Industry, Australia (original series)

• 100
• 80
• 60
• 40
• 20

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Transport, Postal and Warehousing Accommodation and Food Services Arts and Recreation Services Financial and Insurance Services Administrative and Support Services Construction Other Services Information Media and Telecommunications Retail Trade Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Education and Training Public Administration and Safety Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Mining Health Care and Social Assistance

Unemployment Rate (%), Persons, WA & Australia

Australia, 5.2 Western Australia, 4.0 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6

% Source: 13500DO009_201204 Australian Economic Indicators, April 2012, Table 10

WA Unemployment Rate, Underemployment Rate and Labour Force Underutilisaton Rate

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Feb-2000 Aug-2000 Feb-2001 Aug-2001 Feb-2002 Aug-2002 Feb-2003 Aug-2003 Feb-2004 Aug-2004 Feb-2005 Aug-2005 Feb-2006 Aug-2006 Feb-2007 Aug-2007 Feb-2008 Aug-2008 Feb-2009 Aug-2009 Feb-2010 Aug-2010 Feb-2011 Aug-2011 Feb-2012

%

Underemp rate (M) Underemp rate (F) LF Underut rate (M) LF Underut rate (F) UR (M) UR (F)

Source: 6202 Labour Force Australia, Table 8 and Table 23

13.2% 7.8%

Extended Labour Force Underutilisation Rate (%), August 2010

• Labour Force

Underutilisation Rate (LFUR) = Unemployment rate + Underemployment rate

• Extended Labour Force

Underutilisation Rate = LFUR + Hidden Unemployed (discouraged workers) (those available to work, want to work but given up job search)

Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE), Adults Employed Full-Time; & State Minimum Wage, 2011

450.00 550.00 650.00 750.00 850.00 950.00 1050.00 1150.00 1250.00 1350.00 1450.00 1550.00 1650.00 1750.00 1850.00

Feb-2000 Jul-2000 Dec-2000 May-2001 Oct-2001 Mar-2002 Aug-2002 Jan-2003 Jun-2003 Nov-2003 Apr-2004 Sep-2004 Feb-2005 Jul-2005 Dec-2005 May-2006 Oct-2006 Mar-2007 Aug-2007 Jan-2008 Jun-2008 Nov-2008 Apr-2009 Sep-2009 Feb-2010 Jul-2010 Dec-2010 May-2011 Oct-2011

$ Aus-Males Aus-Females WA-Males WA-Females WA Min Wage

WA Weekly Min Wage % increase previous year AWOTE – Adults – W.A. % change AWOTE – Adults – Australia % change 2006 $504.40 4.1% 3.4% 3.2% 2007 $528.40 4.8% 8.7% 5.0% 2008 $557.40 5.5% 7.5% 4.0% 2009 $569.70 2.2% 7.0% 6.1% 2010 $587.20 3.1% 6.0% 5.2% 2011 $607.10 2.75% 8.1% 4.4%

NB: State wage adjustments apply from 1 July each year; AWOTE % change calculated for year to May using seasonally adjusted data from 6302.

65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 May-1995 Oct-1995 Mar-1996 Aug-1996 Jan-1997 Jun-1997 Nov-1997 Apr-1998 Sep-1998 Feb-1999 Jul-1999 Dec-1999 May-2000 Oct-2000 Mar-2001 Aug-2001 Jan-2002 Jun-2002 Nov-2002 Apr-2003 Sep-2003 Feb-2004 Jul-2004 Dec-2004 May-2005 Oct-2005 Mar-2006 Aug-2006 Jan-2007 Jun-2007 Nov-2007 Apr-2008 Sep-2008 Feb-2009 Jul-2009 Dec-2009 May-2010 Oct-2010 Mar-2011 Aug-2011 %

Gender Wage Ratio, Australia and WA (AWOTE Women/Men Employed Full-Time)

Australia WA

Gender Wage Gap: Australia: 17.6% WA: 27.7%

In $ Terms, Nov 2011

Men Women Weekly Difference Annual Difference Australia $1,420.90 $1,173.00 $247.90 $12,890.80 WA $1,663.90 $1,221.30 $442.60 $23,015.20

… not to mention superannuation

Summary

• WA economic growth very strong – 11.1%.
• Consumer sentiment low (benefits of growth not being shared around).
• Strong employment growth in recent years, particularly men employed

part-time.

• Top 3 sectors in WA: mining, health, real estate.
• Bottom 3 sectors in WA: wholesale trade, other services and education

and training.

• Contrasts markedly with trends and developments nationally. Top

nationally is health care. Education and training also in top 5.

• WA unemployment rate record low but labour force underutilisation rate =

13.2% for women and 7.8% for men.

• Wages growth has been particularly strong for men in full-time work and

well above national averages.

• WA Minimum wage has not kept pace. At Aug-06 the WA Min Wage/WA

Male AWOTE = 43%; At Nov 2011 = 36%.

• Gender Wage Gap – largest ever = 27.7% or $23,015pa.

Discussion

• Labour market highly gendered and segregated
• Women continue to meet work and family needs through

working part-time (often in insecure and low paid jobs).

• Australian Institute for Employment Rights has identified the

following ‘costs’ associated with insecure work:

– Greater career instability – Higher unemployment risks – Lower upward mobility – Lower levels of remuneration – Income stress – Lower investment in training and skills development – Longer term economic penalties (particularly women) – Higher levels of job dissatisfaction – Higher propensity for mental health issues – Family stress and breakdown.

Source: Charlesworth et al., AJLE, Vol.14(1), 2011, p42

Discussion continued

Picture Source: http://theconversation.edu.au 21 March 2012

• ACTU inquiry on insecure work-

– Rapid growth in non-standard employment in recent years. – 60% employees in FT or PT on-going work; Around 24% in casual work; 10% independent contractors. – Casual density: retail trade (40%); Accommodation & Food Services (65%). – 29% casuals want to work more hours than they currently work.

• Submissions to the inquiry:

– Focusing on intersection between insecure (casual) work and social security. – Penalties for those in receipt of benefits. Uncertainty around payments  breaches, stress etc. (disincentives to work).

Emerging Issues: FWA & Insecure Work

• Employers want more flexibility
• [AFR 2.4.12] Big banks push for ‘notional’ weekend to

promote “…flexible and efficient modern work practices in a way that has proper regard to considerations of productivity and employment costs”.

• Australian Retailers Association want to cut penalty loadings

by 50%.

• Penalty rates will be battle ground when FWA reviews

awards for retail and hospitality sectors later this year.

• Unions & left want:
• Amend FWA to restrict casual and other forms of precarious

employment to a limited period then require they move

• nto on-going permanent work.
• Prevailing Test: National Interest.

Thank you