Demographic Alvin Independent Update School Fall 2014 District - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Alvin Independent School District

Demographic Update

Fall 2014

• Texas remains a top state in job growth with a second quarter rate of 4.3%,

1.3 percentage points higher than the national average and the strongest growth rate in 9 years. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

• Houston ranked number 6 in the top 10 cities for fast-growth companies, with

76 fast-growth companies based in the city. (inc.com)

• The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 7

consecutive years. (State Comptrollers Office)

• Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (August 2014)
• U.S. 6.3%
• Texas 5.5%
• Houston MSA 5.4%
• Brazoria County 5.7%
• Pearland 4.3%
• In August 2014, Houston issued 3,340 single-family housing permits. This is a

6.4% increase from August of 2013. Year to date multi-family permits are up 83.5% from the same period in 2013. (Real Estate Center at Texas A&M)

• The Houston area exported $115 billion in goods in 2013, $35.3 billion of

which was refined petroleum and coal products. (Los Angeles Times)

2

Economic Conditions

Top 15 Job Growth MSAs

Ranked by Total Annual Job Growth– May 2014

3

Texas Economic Overview

Texas Energy is Key to Growth

• Texas is home to the two largest producing oil reserves in the nation.
• The U.S. has become the world’s largest oil producer, passing Saudi Arabia and Russia.
• U.S. output is more than 11 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2014, according to the

International Energy Agency. They predict the U.S. could produce 19 million per day by 2019.

• Texas is responsible for 36% of U.S. oil production, making it the number one oil producing

state.

4

Local Economic Overview

Anadarko Petroleum Office Completed

• Anadarko completed construction in January
• n a second $180 million, 31-story office

tower to serve as their headquarters

• The company expects to add 450 new

employees and bring an additional 1,700 from currently rented office space elsewhere

• 600 employees have already been added of

the last 2 years

ExxonMobil New Corporate Campus

• 385 acre “super campus” began

construction in 2012

• New campus to house over 10,000

employees by the end of 2015

• Employees and families began moving

into the area in early 2014

• 2,100 employees are expected to move

in from Virginia 5

Local Economic Overview

ExxonMobil Refinery Expansion

• ExxonMobil is expanding their Baytown

refinery capabilities investing several billion dollars in upgrades and construction

• This will add 350 permanent jobs and

expected to employ 10,000 construction workers during the development

• It is also expected to create 4,000

additional related jobs during the process

Chevron Expansion

• Chevron is planning a new 50 story building in

downtown Houston

• The company is planning to consolidate its

Houston employees and move more than 800 employees from its California location

• They are expecting to add 1,700 new jobs over

the next 8 years

• The company is also investing over $5 billion in

its Baytown and Ocean City facilities creating 400 permanent jobs and more than 10,000 construction jobs during the building process 6

Houston Economic Overview

7

3.8%

• 0.9%

7.8% 5.6%

• 12%

Annualized Job Growth

(170,400 new jobs August 2014 year over year)

Average Home Price

($269,800)

Unemployment

(5.4% August 2014 year over year)

Texas Oil & Gas Rig Count

(902 September 2014)

Existing Home Inventory

(2.9 Month’s Supply)

Houston MSA Housing Market

Multiple Listing Service – YTD SFD Activity & Inventory

8

Aug-14 %Change YTD Sales 56,146 0.8% Average Price $269,800 5.6% Median Price $203,000 8.7% Listings 20,007

• 6.3%

DOM 46

• 15%

Months of Supply 2.9

• 12%

Houston Housing Market

9

Single Family Homes: Quarterly Starts

Source: Metrostudy

Houston New Home Ranking Report

10

ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 2Q14

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future

1

Katy ISD 3,749 3,611 2,738 5,439

2

Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 2,943 3,196 2,381 6,952

3

Fort Bend ISD 3,151 3,037 2,672 5,115

4

Houston ISD 3,700 2,857 2,621 5,109

5

Lamar CISD 2,225 2,081 2,583 2,190

6

Conroe ISD 2,254 2,043 3,033 3,268

7

Klein ISD 1,699 1,606 2,050 3,511

8

Humble ISD 1,304 1,251 1,465 4,377

9

Tomball ISD 1,137 975 2,142 1,987

10

Alvin ISD 773 701 1,403 3,890

11

Clear Creek ISD 713 692 1,118 757

12

New Caney ISD 602 548 585 4,030

13

Magnolia ISD 440 474 794 2,453

14

Aldine ISD 457 379 1,274 3,332

15

Spring ISD 407 369 898 2,794

16

Montgomery ISD 438 359 631 1,736

17

Spring Branch ISD 303 335 800 520

18

Dickinson ISD 351 309 582 505

19

Goose Creek ISD 277 275 750 367

20

Pasadena ISD 238 266 440 442

New Housing Activity

• 2Q starts are the highest in 6 years
• Closings are also at record highs, keeping close pace with starts
• With 439 units, inventory remains healthy for future growth

Alvin ISD Housing Activity

11 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Starts Closings Inventory

Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q 182 136 195 143 205 1Q 145 116 178 178 156 2Q 165 186 204 186 231 2Q 163 189 200 168 232 3Q 196 181 204 174 3Q 211 199 193 158 4Q 147 172 151 163 4Q 163 203 182 155 Total 690 675 754 666 436 Total 682 707 753 659 388

Annual Closing Distribution 2Q14

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Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q14 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings 1 Sterling Lakes 146 39 145 60 2 Savannah 127 36 120 38 3 Southern Trails 105 22 103 23 4 Lakeland 62 17 65 20 5 Southfork 33 6 50 10 6 Southlake 83 29 48 27 7 Sedona Lakes 73 42 46 13 8 Kendall Lakes 38 5 34 10 9 Mustang Crossing 23 10 23 9 10 North Pointe Trails 21 10 18 9 TOTALS 711 216 652 219

Vacant Developed Lots 2Q14

13

Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q14 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Rodeo Palms 243 637 2 Southlake 161 188 3 Cold River Ranch 157 4 Sedona Lakes 147 450 6 Sterling Lakes 145 5 Southern Trails 121 204 8 Lakeland 104 7 Forest Heights 56 236 9 North Pointe Trails 46 10 Savannah 36 283 TOTALS 1,216 1,998

Future Lots 2Q14

14

Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q14 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Meridiana 5,500 2 Pomona 2,100 3 Savannah 36 1,725 4 Rodeo Palms 243 637 5 Sedona Lakes 147 450 6 Morgan's Landing 7 324 7 Martha's Vineyard 246 8 Forest Heights 56 236 9 Kendall Lakes 22 206 10 Southern Trails 121 204 TOTALS 632 10,186

#

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MASON

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288

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288

Active Subdivision

15

Sedona Lakes

Sedona Lakes

• 900 Total Homes
• 600 Remaining To Construct
• Estimated Velocity Rates:
• 2015 = 150 Homes
• 2016 = 150 Homes
• 2017 = 150 Homes
• Mason Elementary Zone

Wesson Sand Company

DUKE JETER SAVANNAH LAKES YORK

CORD 48 CORD 48 C O R D 5 8 CORD 58 P O S T R D COEN RD

¬ «

6 MANVEL JH

Active Subdivision

16

Savannah

Savannah

• Friendswood Development Company
• 3,335 Total Lots
• 36 VDL
• 1,725 Futures
• 120 Annual Closings
• Split Between Savannah Lakes &

York Elementary Zone

Future Pomona Development Savannah Development

Active Subdivision

17

Rodeo Palms

Rodeo Palms

• 6 Annual Starts
• 9 Annual Closings
• 3 Finished Vacant
• 243 Vacant Developed Lots
• 637 Futures
• Jeter Elementary

Sedona Lakes Rodeo Palms Future Pomona Development

Active Subdivision

18

Southern Trails

Shadow Ridge Southlake Development

Southern Trails

• 523 Total Acres
• 105 Annual Starts
• 103 Annual Closings
• 7 Finished Vacant
• 121 Vacant Developed Lots
• 204 Future Lots
• $148K-$594K
• Split Between York & Duke

Elementary

Broadway CR 59

• Ft. Bend ISD

Southern Trails

Active Subdivision

19

Southlake

Shadow Ridge Southlake Development

Southlake

• 722 Total Lots
• 83 Annual Starts
• 48 Annual Closings
• 10 Finished Vacant
• 161 Vacant Developed Lots
• 188 Future Lots
• $230K-$578K
• Small Northwest Portion Falls

Within Ft. Bend ISD

• York Elementary

Broadway CR 59

• Ft. Bend ISD

Southern Trails

Active Subdivision

20

Shadow Ridge

Shadow Ridge Southlake Development

Shadow Ridge

• Newmark Homes
• 115 Total Lots
• Models Under Construction
• Homes Priced From $250K’s & Up
• Shadow Creek Ranch HOA
• York Elementary
• Ft. Bend ISD

Southern Trails

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DUKE JETER YORK

C O R D 5 9 COR D 5 8 C O R D 4 8 CORD

¬ «

288

Future Subdivision

21

Pomona

Pomona

• 2,100 Total Futures
• Hillwood
• Broke Ground June 2014
• Total Possible Students 1,260 at

Build Out (.60 Student Yield)

• Split Between Duke/Jeter

Elementary Zones

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

JETER MASON

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288

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288

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6

Future Subdivision

22

Meridiana

Meridiana

• 5,500 Total Futures
• Rise Communities (Nevada)
• Broke Ground March 2014
• First Homes On Ground In July 2015
• Total Possible Students 3,300 at Build

Out (.60 Student Yield)

• Mason Elementary

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 15

Multi-Family Update

Shadow Creek Ranch

Finished Multi-Family Developments (2,673 Finished Units) 1. Carroll @ SCR, 420 Units 2. Alexan @ SCR, 392 Units 3. Villas @ SCR, 264 Units 4. Waterford Place, 296 Units 5. The Retreat @ SCR, 370 Units 6. Discovery @ SCR, 345 Units 7. Residences @ PTC, 234 Loft Units 8. The Avenues @ SCR, 352 Units Finished Senior Apartments (226 Finished Senior Units) 9. The Colonnade , 180 Units 10. Autumn Leaves, 46 Units Possible Future Development Activity (1,622 Future Units)

• 11. 331 Future Luxury Apartments

12. 306 Future Luxury Apartments 13. 360 Future Luxury Apartments 14. The Radius @ SCR, 325 Units Under Construction Per SCR Staff 15. Proposed Future Apartments (300 Units Estimated) Proposed Senior Facility Per SCR Staff

9 10 11 12 13 14

23

Overall Housing Data

By Elementary Attendance Zone

24

Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category

ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE ZONE Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Under Const. Inventory Vacant

• Dev. Lots

Future Alvin Primary/Elementary 26 10 25 9 16 63 160 Duke Elementary 138 28 153 33 11 75 128 204 Hood-Case Elementary 8 2 2 8 56 639 Jeter Elementary 152 41 154 62 17 66 388 2,743 Longfellow Elementary 20 10 8 5 2 14 29 178 Marek Elementary Mason Elementary 149 60 120 38 12 90 278 6,159 Passmore Elementary 1 1 1 15 18 Savannah Lakes Elementary 127 36 124 38 22 80 193 1,725 Stevenson Primary/Disney Elementary 4 4 1 3 24 357 Twain Elementary 59 15 52 19 8 31 68 206 Wilder Elementary York Elementary 88 29 52 28 10 55 161 188 TOTALS 772 231 695 232 83 439 1,403 11,135

Enrollment History

*Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

Cohort Analysis Initial Analysis

25

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2010/11 791 1,305 1,407 1,401 1,349 1,308 1,398 1,247 1,313 1,253 1,346 1,227 1,139 883 17,367 2011/12 833 1,478 1,428 1,422 1,434 1,379 1,338 1,450 1,299 1,345 1,428 1,196 1,221 958 18,209 842 4.8% 2012/13 872 1,518 1,541 1,464 1,408 1,481 1,434 1,383 1,476 1,336 1,546 1,300 1,136 991 18,886 677 3.7% 2013/14 842 1,657 1,604 1,631 1,517 1,412 1,527 1,469 1,418 1,507 1,524 1,453 1,273 975 19,809 923 4.9% 2014/15 827 1,663 1,770 1,670 1,665 1,565 1,500 1,575 1,497 1,486 1,675 1,419 1,420 1,086 20,818 1,009 5.1%

3 year avg 1.041 1.056 1.042 1.016 1.022 1.044 1.030 1.021 1.032 1.134 0.927 0.969 0.841 2011/12 1.133 1.094 1.011 1.024 1.022 1.023 1.037 1.042 1.024 1.140 0.889 0.995 0.841 2012/13 1.027 1.043 1.025 0.990 1.033 1.040 1.034 1.018 1.028 1.149 0.910 0.950 0.812 2013/14 1.092 1.057 1.058 1.036 1.003 1.031 1.024 1.025 1.021 1.141 0.940 0.979 0.858 2014/15 1.004 1.068 1.041 1.021 1.032 1.062 1.031 1.019 1.048 1.111 0.931 0.977 0.853

Roll-up 1,663 1,663 1,770 1,670 1,665 1,565 1,500 1,575 1,497 1,486 1,675 1,419 1,420 21,395 577 Prev Cohort 1,669 1,776 1,843 1,705 1,718 1,663 1,547 1,605 1,569 1,652 1,560 1,387 1,211 21,731 913 3-Year Cohort 1,731 1,756 1,844 1,696 1,702 1,635 1,545 1,608 1,546 1,685 1,553 1,375 1,194 21,695 877

Ten Year Forecast

By Grade Level

26

• Alvin ISD will reach 24,000 enrollment in 2018.
• 5 year growth = 5,174 students
• 2019/20 enrollment = 25,992
• 10 year growth = 11,073 students
• 2024/25 enrollment = 31,891

*Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2010/11 791 1,305 1,407 1,401 1,349 1,308 1,398 1,247 1,313 1,253 1,346 1,227 1,139 883 17,367 2011/12 833 1,478 1,428 1,422 1,434 1,379 1,338 1,450 1,299 1,345 1,428 1,196 1,221 958 18,209 842 4.8% 2012/13 872 1,518 1,541 1,464 1,408 1,481 1,434 1,383 1,476 1,336 1,546 1,300 1,136 991 18,886 677 3.7% 2013/14 842 1,657 1,604 1,631 1,517 1,412 1,527 1,469 1,418 1,507 1,524 1,453 1,273 975 19,809 923 4.9% 2014/15 827 1,663 1,770 1,670 1,665 1,565 1,500 1,575 1,497 1,486 1,675 1,419 1,420 1,086 20,818 1,009 5.1% 2015/16 827 1,701 1,746 1,851 1,721 1,687 1,634 1,562 1,620 1,543 1,709 1,571 1,353 1,252 21,776 958 4.6% 2016/17 827 1,748 1,788 1,807 1,939 1,750 1,761 1,697 1,629 1,681 1,765 1,603 1,515 1,227 22,737 961 4.4% 2017/18 827 1,808 1,840 1,871 1,898 1,999 1,848 1,812 1,755 1,698 1,899 1,654 1,549 1,370 23,827 1,090 4.8% 2018/19 827 1,893 1,907 1,935 1,964 1,956 2,086 1,892 1,865 1,814 1,931 1,780 1,595 1,409 24,856 1,029 4.3% 2019/20 827 1,987 2,011 1,995 2,027 2,050 2,043 2,130 1,960 1,930 2,045 1,812 1,721 1,453 25,992 1,136 4.6% 2020/21 827 2,040 2,126 2,086 2,077 2,111 2,144 2,090 2,216 2,031 2,178 1,917 1,744 1,560 27,146 1,154 4.4% 2021/22 827 2,105 2,182 2,217 2,178 2,166 2,199 2,199 2,162 2,295 2,291 2,043 1,845 1,588 28,297 1,151 4.2% 2022/23 827 2,162 2,262 2,262 2,311 2,260 2,261 2,254 2,286 2,244 2,579 2,149 1,966 1,683 29,505 1,209 4.3% 2023/24 827 2,228 2,314 2,349 2,352 2,409 2,359 2,318 2,345 2,375 2,525 2,418 2,069 1,799 30,686 1,181 4.0% 2024/25 827 2,302 2,381 2,425 2,459 2,450 2,520 2,420 2,410 2,437 2,670 2,369 2,327 1,894 31,891 1,205 3.9%

Ten Year Forecast

By Elementary Campus

27

• Alvin ISD elementary campuses should continue to add close to 500 students

each year for the foreseeable future.

• The strongest growth will continue to be felt on campuses in the western

portion of the district. (Duke, York, Savannah, Mason, Jeter)

Permanent Building Capacity

• Cap. W/Temp/

Flex/Bldgs HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Alvin Elementary 484 684 503 520 539 572 574 579 548 562 566 565 574 572 Alvin Primary 702 742 646 647 654 633 652 662 672 666 668 680 676 685 Hood-Case Elementary 750 910 732 741 769 795 787 795 804 828 837 856 860 866 Jeter Elementary 800 880 916 814 878 963 1,052 1,134 1,220 1,310 1,409 1,519 1,649 1,787 Longfellow Elementary 622 822 501 550 576 611 627 633 633 640 646 641 643 645 Marek Elementary 800 880 927 811 863 895 894 891 873 873 876 865 865 879 Mark Twain Elementary 800 800 816 810 831 841 859 872 861 858 859 862 867 865 Mason Elementary 653 813 662 662 696 752 838 945 1,053 1,193 1,334 1,481 1,631 1,785 Passmore Elementary 750 814 723 695 708 700 715 707 706 715 724 734 737 742 Savannah Lakes Elementary 800 920 814 884 923 968 1,019 1,074 1,128 1,168 1,208 1,263 1,306 1,360 Stevenson Primary 613 733 659 645 661 647 643 666 672 672 673 650 652 655 Walt Disney Elementary 572 572 555 549 553 574 584 597 595 594 593 607 601 600 Wilder Elementary 800 920 896 713 735 738 742 778 805 815 810 808 809 800 York Elementary 800 800 823 762 840 905 989 1,024 1,066 1,105 1,151 1,190 1,233 1,280 Duke Elementary 800 800 842 925 1,011 1,101 1,197 1,289 1,396 1,504 1,609 1,720 1,829 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 10,746 12,090 10,173 10,645 11,151 11,605 12,076 12,554 12,925 13,395 13,858 14,330 14,823 15,350 Elementary Absolute Growth 455 472 506 454 471 478 372 470 463 472 493 527 Elementary Percent Growth 4.68% 4.64% 4.76% 4.07% 4.06% 3.96% 2.96% 3.64% 3.45% 3.40% 3.44% 3.55%

Ten Year Forecast

By Secondary Campus

28

• Strong growth also felt at the secondary level as large elementary

classes begin to move through the district.

• The opening of Manvel Junior High and Shadow Creek Ranch

High School will provide relief to the secondary campuses.

Permanent Building Capacity

• Cap. W/Temp/

Flex/Bldgs HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

Alvin Junior High 1000 1000 773 746 700 697 691 717 749 753 765 727 737 743 Fairview Junior High 1,000 1,000 882 903 953 1,029 1,030 1,011 1,027 1,068 1,081 1,059 1,087 1,103 Harby Junior High 832 912 680 709 729 723 744 802 886 916 912 901 901 904 Rodeo Palms 1,000 1,000 879 975 1,064 1,135 1,267 1,325 1,459 1,588 1,775 1,903 2,048 2,199 Ryan Junior High 1,000 1,122 1,180 1,223 1,277 1,421 1,531 1,714 1,897 2,010 2,121 2,192 2,263 2,316 JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 5,832 6,034 4,394 4,556 4,723 5,005 5,263 5,569 6,018 6,335 6,654 6,782 7,036 7,265 Junior High Absolute Growth 200 162 167 282 258 306 449 317 319 128 254 229 Junior High Percent Growth 4.77% 3.69% 3.67% 5.97% 5.15% 5.81% 8.06% 5.27% 5.04% 1.92% 3.75% 3.25% Alvin High School 2,640 2,760 2,524 2,599 2,626 2,638 2,725 2,706 2,765 2,798 2,829 2,984 3,017 3,067 Manvel High School 2,685 2,817 2,521 2,817 3,070 3,284 3,559 3,822 4,079 4,413 4,751 5,205 5,606 6,006 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 7,825 8,077 5,045 5,416 5,696 5,922 6,284 6,528 6,844 7,211 7,580 8,189 8,623 9,073 High School Absolute Growth 272 371 280 226 362 244 316 367 369 609 434 450 High School Percent Growth 5.70% 7.35% 5.17% 3.97% 6.11% 3.88% 4.84% 5.36% 5.12% 8.03% 5.30% 5.22% Assets 300 300 196 190 195 194 193 194 193 193 194 193 193 194 Brazoria Co. J JAEP 1 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 ALTERNATIVE TOTALS 300 300 197 201 206 205 204 205 204 204 205 204 204 205 DISTRICT TOTALS 24,703 26,501 19,809 20,818 21,776 22,737 23,827 24,856 25,992 27,146 28,297 29,505 30,686 31,892 District Absolute Growth 923 1,009 958 961 1,090 1,029 1,136 1,154 1,151 1,209 1,181 1,206 District Percent Growth 4.9% 5.1% 4.6% 4.4% 4.8% 4.3% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.0% 3.9%

Summary

• The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 7

consecutive years.

• Housing market showing strong growth in new construction and increasing

values.

• 2Q14 starts are the highest they have been in 6 years and both starts and

closing will climb close to 1,000 homes during this school year.

• New housing will continue to be the strongest in Jeter, Mason and Savannah

Lakes Elementary zones.

• The opening of Manvel Junior High and then Shadow Creek Ranch High

School will provide relief to secondary campuses.

• Fall 2014 enrollment growth of 5.1% with an increase of 1,009 students.

Fall 2014 enrollment = 20,818.

• Five year enrollment growth of 5,174 with Fall 2019 enrollment = 25,992.
• Ten-Year enrollment growth of 11,073 with Fall 2024 enrollment = 31,891.

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