European Gas Demand and Sources of Gas Supply Tatiana Zhitenko - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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European Gas Demand and Sources of Gas Supply Tatiana Zhitenko - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 20, 2024 283 likes •429 views

European Gas Demand and Sources of Gas Supply Tatiana Zhitenko Deputy Head of Directorate Head of Division, Gazprom TYDNP 2018 Gas Supply Potential SJWS, 7 th December 2017, Brussels Global Gas Demand 6000 5750 5500 5250 5000 bcm 4750

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European Gas Demand and Sources of Gas Supply

TYDNP 2018 Gas Supply Potential SJWS, 7th December 2017, Brussels Tatiana Zhitenko

Deputy Head of Directorate – Head of Division, Gazprom

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1

Global Gas Demand

Hereinafter: adjusted to Russian gas (T=20C, calorific value = 37.053 MJ/cm), unless stated otherwise. Sources: IEA, IHS, Wood Mackenzie

3500 3750 4000 4250 4500 4750 5000 5250 5500 5750 6000 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 bcm

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European Gas Demand

Sources: IEA, IHS, Wood Mackenzie, BP Hereinafter: adjusted to Russian gas (T=20C, calorific value = 37.053 MJ/cm), unless stated otherwise.

400 430 460 490 520 550 580 610 640 670 700 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 bcm

ENTSOG: Coal Before Gas ENTSOG: Gas Before Coal ENTSOG: Sustainable Transition ENTSOG: Distributed Generation ENTSOG: Global Climate Action ENTSOG: EUCO 30

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Indigenous Production in Europe

Indigenous production excludes Norway Sources: IHS, Wood Mackenzie

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 bcm ENTSOG

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Total Gas Imports to Europe

Sources: IHS, Wood Mackenzie

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 bcm ENTSOG max ENTSOG min

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LNG Imports to Europe

Sources: IHS, Wood Mackenzie

50 100 150 200 250 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 bcm ENTSOG max ENTSOG min

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Russian Gas Supply to Europe

Sources: IHS, Wood Mackenzie

50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 bcm ENTSOG max ENTSOG min

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European Gas Market Review

Sources: Bloomberg, Interfax-GGA, Platts, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, Customs Statistics of S. Korea and Japan.

Asian Price Premium, TTF Prices and Asian LNG Prices

Growing Asian premium is supporting higher attractiveness of Asian market for flexible LNG deliveries versus European market.

Asian Price Premium

  • 2,8

2,2 7,2 12,2 17,2

  • 100

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 $/MBTU $/Mcm Asian premium TTF day-ahead and forwards (23 oct 2017) Japanese LNG Import Price

  • S. Korean LNG Import Price

Asian Proxy LNG Price Asian spot prices (actual and forecast) 19.9 14.2 17.1 11.4 8.5 5.7 2.8 0.0

  • 2.8
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LNG deliveries from Sabine Pass

  • number of LNG deliveries over time period

1

Source: IHS Markit.

35%

13%

36%

16%

Central and South America Middle East and Africa Asia and Oceania Europe

Share of deliveries by region

Sabine Pass

7

4

9 4 3 3 5

  • LNG delivery routes from Sabine Pass

From Jan to Nov 2017 Sabine Pass has shipped 11,8 mt of LNG.

including Europe – 1,8 mt or ≈0,5% of European gas demand.

2 6 11 39 27 20 27 1 1

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Record High Deliveries of Russian Gas to Europe

  • In 2016 the level of Russian gas deliveries to Europe reached record levels of 179,3 bcm.
  • We expect to have even higher numbers in 2017.

151 151 159 141 139 150 139 161 147 159 179 190

584 583 598 564 602 551 542 540 485 507 542 561 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e bcm Russian Gas Supply European Gas Demand Share of Russian gas in European gas demand 25% 23% 27% 26% 30% 30% 34% 33% 27% 26% 26% 31%

34%

190

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 MCQ ACQ MCQ under the contract prolongation assumption ACQ under the contract prolongation assumption

Source: CEDIGAZ, under assumption that 85% of contacted volumes is Take-or-Pay (MCQ) and the rest is flexible (ACQ).

bcm

Russian Gas Contracted Volumes

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  • Gas demand grows worldwide. In Europe various scenarios show either stable levels or

moderate growth.

  • Indigenous production decrease. The net imports grow. The niche will be taken by both

pipeline gas and LNG.

  • The efficient infrastructure has to be in place.
  • Questions to the supply scenarios:
  • Counterintuitive: demand is not balanced with supply.
  • The difference between max and min scenarios is too high for imports.
  • Need to clarify a purpose of supply scenarios.

Conclusions

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Thank you for your attention!