Summer Summer 2007 2007 Supply Supply and and Demand Demand - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 1 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

Summer Summer 2007 2007 Supply Supply and and Demand Demand Operational Operational Outlook Outlook

Board of Governors Mee Board of Governors Meeting ting March 2007 March 2007

Bob Emmert Bob Emmert

• Sr. Loads and Resources Engineer
• Sr. Loads and Resources Engineer

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 2 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

Introduction and Over Introduction and Overview view

The CAISO annually The CAISO annually prepares a Summer Oper prepares a Summer Operational ational Assessment. Assessment.

Incorporates historical load and resource parameters. Incorporates historical load and resource parameters. Near-term load and resource changes. Near-term load and resource changes.

Assessment to highli Assessment to highlight: ght:

Reasonable range of probable operating conditions. Reasonable range of probable operating conditions. Probabilities of meeting key operating reserve parameters. Probabilities of meeting key operating reserve parameters.

Probability Probability analysis methodology analysis methodology adopted for 2007. adopted for 2007. Analysis util Analysis utilizes CEC probability izes CEC probability model using ISO model using ISO data. data. Analysis performed on Analysis performed on CAISO control CAISO control area, SP26 area, SP26 and NP26 and NP26 sub-regions. sub-regions. Analysis Focuses on S Analysis Focuses on Stage 1, 2 & 3 tage 1, 2 & 3 operating r

• perating reserve

eserve emergency conditions . emergency conditions .

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 3 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

Review of Summer 2006 Review of Summer 2006

Demand Demand

2006 peak load weather conditions were extremely hot, exceeding 2006 peak load weather conditions were extremely hot, exceeding both the 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 demand forecast scenarios provided in both the 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 demand forecast scenarios provided in the Summer 2006 assessment. the Summer 2006 assessment. The CAISO experienced an all time peak of 50,270 MW, well in The CAISO experienced an all time peak of 50,270 MW, well in excess of the previous 2005 record of 44,311 MW (adjusted) and excess of the previous 2005 record of 44,311 MW (adjusted) and 2006 most likely forecast of 46,063 MW. 2006 most likely forecast of 46,063 MW. Forecasting models were tested and found to be accurate for Forecasting models were tested and found to be accurate for temperatures experienced within the normal expected accuracy temperatures experienced within the normal expected accuracy tolerances. tolerances. Forecast model was updated with 2006 temperature Forecast model was updated with 2006 temperature and load data and load data resulted in the forecast model being more robust on the high load resulted in the forecast model being more robust on the high load side. side.

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 4 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

Review of Summer 2006 Review of Summer 2006 -

• Continued

Continued

Supply Supply

Entered 2006 summe Entered 2006 summer with a r with a 24.6% forecasted 24.6% forecasted planning reserv planning reserve. e.

Based on most likely forecasts. Based on most likely forecasts.

Supply system Supply system was tested by record loads. was tested by record loads. CAISO managed through CAISO managed through the peak the peak without having to shed load without having to shed load.

Due to: Due to:

Superb execution of 2006 Summer preparation plans by all participants Superb execution of 2006 Summer preparation plans by all participants

Generators, transmission owners, conservation campaigns, end-use customers Generators, transmission owners, conservation campaigns, end-use customers

High Planning Reserve High Planning Reserve Resource Adequacy (RA) Resource Adequacy (RA) forward procurement process forward procurement process Record supply availability Record supply availability

Generators ga Generators gave a stellar perfo ve a stellar performance rmance Approximatel Approximately 4,000 MW abo y 4,000 MW above historical le ve historical levels & most likel vels & most likely forecast y forecast

Team work between agencies Team work between agencies

Example: Coordina Example: Coordination with tion with the Northw the Northwest resulted in I est resulted in Imports being mports being approximatel approximately 1,000 MW abo y 1,000 MW above forecast ve forecast

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 5 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

Load Overview Load Overview

40,886 41,248 43,987 44,311 46,063

4,207

47,847

2,762

30,000 30,000 32,500 32,500 35,000 35,000 37,500 37,500 40,000 40,000 42,500 42,500 45,000 45,000 47,500 47,500 50,000 50,000 52,500 52,500

Peak Demand (MW)

2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007

CAISO Historica CAISO Historical & Forecast Pe l & Forecast Peak Demand ak Demand

CA CAISO Ac ISO Actual Demand (A tual Demand (Adjusted) djusted) Additional Over 1-in-2 dditional Over 1-in-2 1-in-2 Forecast 2006 Act 2006 Actual ual 50,270 MW 50,270 MW 1-in-2 Forecast 2007 1-in-10 2007 1-in-10 Forecast Forecast 50,609 MW 50,609 MW

(Ad (Adjusted for SM justed for SMUD, WAP UD, WAPA, M , MID & TID Leaving ISO) ID & TID Leaving ISO)

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 6 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

2007 Resource 2007 Resource Overview Overview

Generation Generation

2007 control area generation additions are approximately 700 MW. 2007 control area generation additions are approximately 700 MW. California hydro conditions are below normal YTD California hydro conditions are below normal YTD.

Imports Imports

System import capability for 2007 is unchanged from 2006. System import capability for 2007 is unchanged from 2006. Forecast of imports are based on historical trends seen during peak. Forecast of imports are based on historical trends seen during peak. The system has the capability for additional imports. The system has the capability for additional imports. Import levels are driven by market need and regional availability. Import levels are driven by market need and regional availability. Potential increased hydro limitations on Columbia River hy Potential increased hydro limitations on Columbia River hydro system dro system are not expected to occur by summer 2007. are not expected to occur by summer 2007.

Demand Response (DR) and Demand Response (DR) and Interruptible Interruptible Programs Programs

DR and Interruptible programs are based on CPUC 2007 estimates, DR and Interruptible programs are based on CPUC 2007 estimates, adjusted based on historical performance as experienced by the ISO. adjusted based on historical performance as experienced by the ISO. Approximately 230 MW added since summer 2006 (adjusted). Approximately 230 MW added since summer 2006 (adjusted). DR programs are triggered at Stage-1 emergencies (largely voluntary). DR programs are triggered at Stage-1 emergencies (largely voluntary). Interruptible programs are triggered at Stage-2 emergencies. Interruptible programs are triggered at Stage-2 emergencies.

Net 930 MW Net 930 MW Impact approxima Impact approximately equival tely equivalent to 1-years l ent to 1-years load gro

• ad growth.

wth.

California Independent System Operator

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Overview of Probabilit Overview of Probability Analysis y Analysis

Includes variability due to: Includes variability due to:

Annual Peak Load based on Annual Peak Load based on historical historical weather cond eather conditions itions Historical ra Historical range of generation ou nge of generation outages at time o tages at time of peak f peak Historical ra Historical range of transmi nge of transmission limit ssion limitations at tim ations at time of peak e of peak

Performed for 3 Areas: Performed for 3 Areas:

CAISO control area CAISO control area SP26 Zone (South of Pa SP26 Zone (South of Path 26) th 26) NP26 Zone (North of Pat NP26 Zone (North of Path 26) h 26)

Determines probability of entering into emerge Determines probability of entering into emergency ncy

• perating conditions:
• perating conditions:

Stage-1, Opera Stage-1, Operating reserves belo ting reserves below 7% w 7% Stage-2, Opera Stage-2, Operating reserves belo ting reserves below 5% w 5% Stage-3, Opera Stage-3, Operating reserves belo ting reserves below 3% w 3%

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 8 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

CAISO Summer 20 CAISO Summer 2007 07

Operating R Operating Reserv eserves es

0% 0% 10% 10% 20% 20% 30% 30% 40% 40% 50% 50% 60% 60% 70% 70% 80% 80% 90% 90% 100% 100%

• 10%
• 8%
• 6%
• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44%

Operating Reserve Margin Operating Reserve Margin Cumulative Probability

California Independent System Operator

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CAISO Summer 2 CAISO Summer 2007 Operating Reserve 007 Operating Reserve

13% 13% 20% 20% 14% 14% 10% 10% 2.9% 2.9% 4.6% 4.6%

0% 0% 5% 5% 10% 10% 15% 15% 20% 20% 25% 25% 30% 30% 35% 35% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10%

Operating Reserve Margin Operating Reserve Margin Cumulative Probability

Operating Reserve Operating Reserve After M fter Moderatin Load w

• deratin Load with DR

ith DR After Further fter Further Moderati Moderating Load w ng Load with Interruptibles ith Interruptibles Stage-3 Triggered Stage-3 Triggered Betw Between 1.5% een 1.5% & 3% & 3% Stage-1 Triggered Stage-1 Triggered Betw Between 6% een 6% & 7% & 7% Stage-2 Triggered Stage-2 Triggered Less Than 5% Less Than 5%

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 10 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

Summer 2007 CAISO Contr Summer 2007 CAISO Control Area

• l Area

Adverse Scenari Adverse Scenario Planning

• Planning

Changes in Changes in the actual the actual new generation new generation, DR & Interrupti , DR & Interruptible ble Programs, either up Programs, either up or down, w

• r down, will change the

ill change these results. se results. There is a signi There is a significant probabi ficant probability o lity of entering i f entering into a Stage nto a Stage- 1 Emergency (20 1 Emergency (20%). %). While the prob While the probability o ability of conditio f conditions occurring ns occurring that require that require load shedd load shedding is low ing is low (2.9%), it is poss (2.9%), it is possible scena ible scenario. rio. The CAISO needs The CAISO needs to contin to continue to prepare f ue to prepare for adverse

• r adverse

conditions. conditions.

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 11 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

CAISO SP26 Summ CAISO SP26 Summer 2007 Operating Reser er 2007 Operating Reserves ves

23% 23% 17% 17% 18% 18% 12% 12% 4.7% 4.7% 3.0% 3.0%

0% 0% 5% 5% 10% 10% 15% 15% 20% 20% 25% 25% 30% 30% 35% 35% 40% 40% 45% 45% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10%

Operating Reserve Margin Operating Reserve Margin Cumulative Probability

Operating Reserve Operating Reserve After M fter Moderatin Load w

• deratin Load with DR

ith DR After Further M fter Further Moderating Load w

• derating Load with Interru

ith Interruptibles ptibles Stage-3 Triggered Stage-3 Triggered Betw Between 1.5% een 1.5% & 3% & 3% Stage-1 Triggered Stage-1 Triggered Betw Between 6% een 6% & 7% & 7% Stage-2 Triggered Stage-2 Triggered Less Than 5% Less Than 5%

California Independent System Operator

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Summer 2007 SP26 Summer 2007 SP26 Adverse Scenario Planning Adverse Scenario Planning

Changes in Changes in the actual the actual new generation new generation, DR & Interrupti , DR & Interruptible ble Programs, either up Programs, either up or down, w

• r down, will change the

ill change these results. se results. There is a signi There is a significant probabi ficant probability o lity of entering i f entering into a Stage nto a Stage-1

• 1

Emergency (23 Emergency (23%). %). While the prob While the probability o ability of conditio f conditions occurring ns occurring that require that require load shedd load shedding is low ing is low (3.0%), it is poss (3.0%), it is possible scena ible scenario. rio. The CAISO needs The CAISO needs to contin to continue to prepare f ue to prepare for adverse

• r adverse

conditions. conditions.

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 13 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

CAISO NP26 Summ CAISO NP26 Summer 2007 Operating Reserv er 2007 Operating Reserve

11% 11% 16% 16% 7.6% 7.6% 11% 11% 3.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5%

0% 0% 5% 5% 10% 10% 15% 15% 20% 20% 25% 25% 30% 30% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10%

Operating Reserve Margin Operating Reserve Margin Cumulative Probability

Operating Reserve Operating Reserve After M fter Moderatin Load w

• deratin Load with DR

ith DR After Further M fter Further Moderating Load w

• derating Load with Interruptibles

ith Interruptibles

Stage-1 T Stage-1 Triggered riggered Betw Between 6% & 7% een 6% & 7% Stage-2 Trigge Stage-2 Triggered red Less Tha Less Than 5% n 5% Stage-3 T Stage-3 Triggered riggered Betw Between 1.5% & 3% een 1.5% & 3%

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 14 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

Conclusions Conclusions

The amount of risk The amount of risk associated associated with Summer 2007 operati with Summer 2007 operation

• n
• f the Grid
• f the Grid is simil

is similar to that o ar to that of Summer 2006. f Summer 2006. The risk of hav The risk of having to shed firm load, ing to shed firm load, is sim is similar in ilar in CAISO, CAISO, SP26 & NP26, and remai SP26 & NP26, and remains a concern under ex ns a concern under extreme high treme high load and/or adv load and/or adverse supply conditions. erse supply conditions. The CAISO is counting The CAISO is counting on:

• n:

Continued success of the Resource Adequacy programs Continued success of the Resource Adequacy programs Generation additions Generation additions Continuing increases in DR and interruptible programs Continuing increases in DR and interruptible programs Summer preparation efforts to manage adverse conditions Summer preparation efforts to manage adverse conditions

Availability Availability of imports and

• f imports and Conservation

Conservation will continue to be will continue to be an important an important factor to hel factor to help meet demand. p meet demand.

California Independent System Operator

Created By: REmmert, Page 15 LST UPDT: 3/7/07

Summer Preparedness Summer Preparedness Actions Actions

Continue performing en Continue performing engineering studies gineering studies to identify to identify trouble spots trouble spots and develop operating and develop operating tools and procedures tools and procedures to remedy to remedy them. them. Engage stakeholders co Engage stakeholders concerning reserv ncerning reserve margin issues through e margin issues through proceedings such as the proceedings such as the Long Term Procurement Long Term Procurement Process (LTPP). Process (LTPP). Coordinate with s Coordinate with statewide Flex Y tatewide Flex Your Po

• ur Power NOW! program.

wer NOW! program. Promote SAVE-A-WATT Vol Promote SAVE-A-WATT Voluntary Load Reduction Program untary Load Reduction Program. Complete & quantify Complete & quantify transmission upgrades b transmission upgrades before summer efore summer peak. peak. Meet Meet with utilities, with utilities, generators and generators and WECC control areas to di WECC control areas to discuss scuss supply and demand outl supply and demand outlook and unit readiness.

• ok and unit readiness.

Complete summer Complete summer workshops to prepare IS workshops to prepare ISO and utili O and utility ty dispatchers for dispatchers for summer peak condi summer peak conditions. tions. Assess utilit Assess utility procurement plans y procurement plans to meet to meet Resource Adequacy Resource Adequacy requirements. requirements. Participate i Participate in WECC and NERC regional demand n WECC and NERC regional demand and supply and supply assessments to det assessments to determine excess & ermine excess & deficiencies i deficiencies in neighboring n neighboring control areas. control areas.