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Topic 7: Demand and Elasticity Market vs. firms demand 1 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Topic 7: Demand and Elasticity Market vs. firms demand 1 2 Elasticity and revenue 3 Numerical examples: Elasticity for linear and log-linear demand 4 Determinants of elasticity 5 Demand estimation exercise. Session 7 Demand and

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SLIDE 1

Topic 7: Demand and Elasticity

1

➥

Market vs. firm’s demand

2 Elasticity and revenue 3 Numerical examples: Elasticity for linear and log-linear demand 4 Determinants of elasticity 5 Demand estimation exercise.

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 1

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SLIDE 2

Perfect vs. imperfect competition

“firms are price-takers” vs. “firms have market power” (Sessions 5–7)

Firms are price-takers (Perfect competition)

(Sessions 8–15)

Firms have market power (Imperfect competition)

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 2

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SLIDE 3

From the individual firm’s viewpoint

Imperfect competition = firm has market power = firm sees a trade-off between price and volume

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Qi Pi Demand curve for i ’s output

Perfect competition = firm is a price-taker = firm believes it can sell any amount at the market price (e.g., market price is 3)

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Qi P i ’s volume–price trade-off

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 3

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SLIDE 4

Market power: where it comes from

Qi Pi di (Pi)

Two cases:

  • 1. Differentiated products: the firm’s branded product is differentiated

from other products.

  • 2. Homogeneous goods: Though products are not differentiated, the firm

is a big player: increased output pushes down the market price. Next let’s compare market demand vs. a firm’s demand …

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 4

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SLIDE 5

Case 2: Homogeneous goods

Market vs. firm’s demand …starting with no market power

MARKET DEMAND

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 2 4 6 8 10 12

P Q US Cents per Pound Millions of metric tons

FIRM’S DEMAND

“El Guadal” finca cafetera

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Pi Qi US Cents per Pound Metric tons …when total output of other farms is 7.5M metric tons

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 5

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SLIDE 6

Market power: Our simulation

Market demand vs. firm’s demand

MARKET DEMAND Q = 6000 − 100P

10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 3 4 5 6

P Q Thousands

FIRM’S DEMAND When Q−i = 3173

10 20 30 40 50 60 20 40 60 80 100 120

Pi Qi

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 6

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SLIDE 7

Corning and glass substrate

Corning has over 50% market share of glass substrate. There are different grades (“5G, 6G, …”), but for a particular grade the products of different suppliers are viewed as close substitutes. News item from December 2005 (for example): The aggressive capacity added by both Corning of the U.S., the world’s No. 1 substrate supplier, and AGC, the No. 2, will lead to price drops for glass substrates and will especially benefit TV panel makers …

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 7

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SLIDE 8

Market demand curve vs. Corning’s demand curve

MARKET DEMAND Q = 6000 − 100P

10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 3 4 5 6

P Q Thousands

FIRM’S DEMAND When Q−i = 1500

10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 3 4 5 6

P Qi Thousands

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 8

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SLIDE 9

Case 1: Differentiated products

Market demand vs. a firm’s demand

Example: Airbus and Boeing Individual demand functions: QA = 60 − 3PA + 2PB QB = 60 − 3PB + 2PA Market demand: Choose measure of aggregate output, say Q = QA + QB . Choose price index, say P = (PA + PB)/2 . Q = 120 − 2P

(See workbook-style “Exercise on Demand and Elasticity” for details and review.)

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 9

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SLIDE 10

Topic 7: Demand and Elasticity

1

✓

Market vs. firm’s demand

2

➥

Elasticity and revenue

3 Numerical examples: Elasticity for linear and log-linear demand 4 Determinants of elasticity 5 Demand estimation exercise.

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 10

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SLIDE 11

Labor markets: minimum wage

d(P)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Q (millions) €/hour

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 11

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SLIDE 12

Key point: % changes matter

An increase in minimum wage has two effects on total wage bill: P ↑ : Each worker is more expensive : wage bill ↑

by %∆P

Q ↓ : Firms employ fewer workers : wage bill ↓

by %∆Q

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 12

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SLIDE 13

Key point: % changes matter

An increase in minimum wage has two effects on total wage bill: P ↑ : Each worker is more expensive : wage bill ↑

by %∆P

Q ↓ : Firms employ fewer workers : wage bill ↓

by %∆Q

Net effect depends on which is greater: %∆P

  • r

%∆Q

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 12

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SLIDE 14

Example: linear demand

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Q (millions) €/hour

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 13

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SLIDE 15

Key point: own-price elasticity of demand

Useful measure of price-sensitivity of demand: Elasticity E = −% change in Q % change in P . If … then a price increase causes revenue (expenditure) to … and we say demand is …

E < 1 E = 1 E > 1

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 14

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Other elasticities

We can measure elasticities between any two related variables (e.g., demand and income, supply and price, etc.) Elasticity = sensitivity in terms of % changes (rather than slope). Some elasticities of demand:

  • Own-price elasticity: − %∆Q

%∆P

  • Cross-price elasticity:

%∆Q %∆Ps

  • Income elasticity:

%∆Q %∆I

Remember:

  • This course: 97% on own-price elasticity; 3% on other elasticities.
  • “Elasticity of demand” (no qualifier) means “own-price elasticity.
  • Own-price elasticity is only one we use the minus sign for.

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 15

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SLIDE 17

Topic 7: Demand and Elasticity

1

✓

Market vs. firm’s demand

2

✓

Elasticity and revenue

3

➥

Numerical examples: Elasticity for linear and log-linear demand

4 Determinants of elasticity 5 Demand estimation exercise.

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 16

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SLIDE 18

Point elasticity

Loosely: E = −% change in Q % change in P . Point elasticity: If d(P) is smooth then elasticity at point (P, Q) is E = −dQ dP P Q .

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 17

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Elasticity of linear demand: Q = A − BP

Choke price: price at which demand is zero = ¯ P = Point elasticity: P

¯

P − P .

5 10 15 20 25 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Price ($1000s) Demand for minivans (100,000s)

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 18

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Elasticity of log-linear demand: Q = AP−B

“Taking logs” yields: log Q = log A − B log P

Price Quantity d1(P) d2(P)

d1(P) = 6P−3 d2(P) = 1.7P−1.5

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 19

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SLIDE 21

Topic 7: Demand and Elasticity

1

✓

Market vs. firm’s demand

2

✓

Elasticity and revenue

3

✓

Numerical examples: Elasticity for linear and log-linear demand

4

➥

Determinants of elasticity

5 Demand estimation exercise.

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 20

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SLIDE 22

Determinants of elasticity

  • 1. The more close substitutes a good has, the

elastic is demand.

  • 2. ⇒ Demand for a particular brand (Samsung) or type ( 17′′ flat panel) is

elastic than demand for the entire category (computer displays).

  • 3. ⇒ The more differentiated the brand, the

elastic is demand.

  • 4. ⇒ Advertising usually both increases demand and makes it

elastic.

  • 5. When a product’s close substitutes become more expensive, demand for

the product becomes elastic.

  • 6. Demand is typically

elastic for people with lower income.

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 21

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SLIDE 23

Elasticity of demand for some cars in USA

(1980s data)

Model Elasticity Mazda 323 6.3 Honda Accord 4.8 Nissan Maxima 4.8 Nissan Sentra 6.5 Ford Taurus 4.2 Ford Escort 6.0 Lexus LS400 3.0 Chevrolet Cavalier 6.4 Cadillac Seville 3.9 BMW 735i 3.5 But for entire category: 0.8

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 22

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SLIDE 24

Topic 7: Demand and Elasticity

1

✓

Market vs. firm’s demand

2

✓

Elasticity and revenue

3

✓

Numerical examples: Elasticity for linear and log-linear demand

4

✓

Determinants of elasticity

5

➥

Demand estimation exercise.

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 23

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SLIDE 25

Estimating demand: Get some data

  • 1. Consumer surveys.
  • 2. Consumer focus groups.
  • 3. Market experiments.
  • 4. Historical (real) data: cross-section, time-series, or both (panel).

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 24

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SLIDE 26

Estimating demand: Fit a curve

  • 1. Write down model (equation) for demand, with unspecified

coefficients.

  • 2. Fit line or curve to data points using statistical techniques (regression).

It’s all approximate:

  • Include most relevant variables.
  • Pick a simple functional form without too many coefficients.

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 25

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Two common parametric forms

Linear Q = A − B1P + B2Ps + B3I + · · · e.g. FPR = −0.02 − 0.8PF + 0.4PM − 0.07MPR + 0.35GDP Log-linear (constant elasticity) Q = A P−B1 PB2

s

IB3 · · · taking logs yields log Q = log A − B1 log P + B2 log Ps + B3 log I + · · ·

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 26

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SLIDE 28

Demand for US Gasoline Consumption

Variables: GPC

=

Per-capita U.S. gasoline consumption PG

=

Price index for gasoline Y

=

Per capita disposable income PNC

=

Price index for new cars PUC

=

Price index for used cars Model: GPC = A PGB1 Y B2 PNCB3 PUCB4 Or: log GPC = log A + B1 log PG + B2 log Y + B3 log PNC + B4 log PUC

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 27

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Regression results

log G = −5.36 − 0.059 log PG + 1.373 log Y − 0.127 log PNC − 0.119 log PUC Or: G = 0.00000436 PG−0.059 Y 1.373 PNC−0.127 PUC−0.119

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 28

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SLIDE 30

Coming up …

Firms are price-takers (Perfect competition) Firms have market power (Imperfect competition)

(Sessions 8–11)

Individual decisions

(Sessions 12–15)

Equilibrium

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 29

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SLIDE 31

Session 8: Pricing with Market Power

For a single firm with demand d(P) and cost curve c(Q) :

  • Output decision: MR = MC .
  • Entry/exit decision: VΠ > FC ?

FPM reading. Chapter 7.

  • Deliverables. Exercises 7.4 and 7.5.

P1 Sep–Oct 2012 • Timothy Van Zandt • Prices & Markets Session 7 • Demand and Elasticity Slide 30