Quarterly supply/demand Supply Demand Quarterly numbers Supply - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Quarterly supply/demand

Supply Demand

Quarterly numbers

• Supply numbers from the Virginia One-stop

System (VOS). Demand numbers from Virginialmi.com

• Program year quarters run:

– Q1 = 07/01 – 9/30 – Q2 = 10/01 – 12/31 – Q3 = 1/1 – 3/31 – Q4 = 4/1 – 6/30

Workforce Regions

Quarterly Job Orders per Region

• 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 I II III IV VI VII VIII IX XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII Q1 Q2 Q3

Low to mid skill

• Orders for low to mid skill levels

LWIA Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Low/Mid I 521 459 405 83% II 1,578 1,484 1426 76% III 1,008 883 874 76% IV 1,441 1,376 1,000 59% VI 790 685 591 57% VII 418 317 302 77% VIII 329 311 257 71% IX 2,459 2,091 1,146 45% XI 993 1,004 698 63% XII 11,980 11,851 6,215 37% XIII 1,044 934 726 53% XIV 1,315 987 871 63% XV 728 624 541 67% XVI 2,640 2,468 1,698 54% XVII 667 611 476 70% 27,911 26,085 17,226 49%

Supply: entered training trends

Total of 536 people entered training, compared to 780 same time last year (Q2PY13).

Q1 = 07/01 – 9/30 Q2 = 10/01 – 12/31 Q3 = 1/1 – 3/31 Q4 = 4/1 – 6/30

• 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL 2011 2012 2013 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL 2011 565 368 503 787 2,223 2012 656 336 503 719 2,214 2013 700 377 780 699 2,556 2014 807 351 536 1,694

Supply: exited training trends

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL 2011 1,125 516 379 727 2,747 2012 968 413 425 808 2,614 2013 734 548 542 881 2,705 2014 808 516 386 1,710

Total of 386 people completed training, compared to 544 same time last year (Q1PY13).

Q1 = 07/01 – 9/30 Q2 = 10/01 – 12/31 Q3 = 1/1 – 3/31 Q4 = 4/1 – 6/30

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL 2011 2012 2013 2014

Top Statewide Occupations

Top occupations listed by projected statewide demand over the next five years1

• Registered Nurses
• Office Supervisors
• Electricians
• Construction Supervisors
• Sales Representatives
• 1. VA LMI

Demand Entered Training Completers RNs Nursing Aides LPN and LVNs Truck drivers General Managers Nursing aides Retail Sales LPN and LVN Computer Support Computer programmers Medical Assistants Electricians Food industry RNs Accountants C/S Representatives Electricians Carpenters

Employment Trends

Virginia & Workforce Regions

• Data from the Virginia Employment

Commission’s core data programs

– Current Employment Statistics – Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages – Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Virginia Industry Employment Growth

Percent Growth Over the Year April 2015 Payroll Data

• 14.0
• 12.0
• 10.0
• 8.0
• 6.0
• 4.0
• 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Total nonfarm Mining and logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, transportation, and utilities Information Finance and insurance Professional and business services Education and health services Educational services Leisure and hospitality Accommodation and food services Government

Virginia Payroll Employment

April 2015

Current Month MoM % Chg YoY % Chg Total nonfarm 3,806,400 1.3 0.9 Mining and logging 8,500

• 2.3
• 12.4

Construction 184,800 4.5 4.3 Manufacturing 233,200 0.0 1.0 Trade, transportation, and utilities 637,800 0.3 0.6 Information 69,200

• 0.9
• 2.3

Finance and insurance 142,500 0.1 1.1 Professional and business services 681,200 1.8 0.3 Education and health services 510,900 1.0 2.2 Educational services 94,200 1.3 1.7 Leisure and hospitality 370,200 4.0 0.4 Accommodation and food services 323,200 3.4 0.7 Government 719,200 0.8 0.5

Source: Virginia Employment Commission, CES

Workforce Region Employment Change

3rd Quarter 2014 Change Over Prior Quarter and Same Quarter a Year Ago

Level QoQ % Chg YoY % Chg Alexandria/Arlington (LWIA XII) 260,714 0.31

• 0.01

Bay Consortium (LWIA XIII) 160,035 1.22 1.41 Capital Region Workforce Partnership (LWIA IX) 529,304

• 0.09

1.17 Crater Area (LWIA XV) 67,532

• 1.78

1.28 Greater Peninsula (LWIA XIV) 225,045

• 1.03
• 0.17

Hampton Roads (LWIA XVI) 492,586

• 0.30
• 0.13

New River/Mt. Rogers (LWIA II) 137,418

• 0.89

0.28 Northern Virginia (LWIA XI) 901,702

• 0.84

0.02 Piedmont Workforce Network (LWIA VI) 159,113

• 0.83

1.63 Region 2000/Central VA (LWIA VII) 98,285 0.20 1.09 Shenandoah Valley (LWIA IV) 210,762

• 0.30

1.27 South Central (LWIA VIII) 52,733

• 2.40

0.65 Southwestern Virginia (LWIA I) 57,785

• 2.10
• 2.24

West Piedmont (LWIA XVII) 67,353

• 1.52
• 0.15

Western Virginia (LWIA III) 156,835

• 1.01

0.79

Source: Virginia Employment Commission, QCEW

Workforce Region Unemployment Rates

April 2014 vs. April 2015

Level of UE 2015 2014 Alexandria/Arlington (LWIA XII) 7,451 3.1% 3.2% Bay Consortium (LWIA XIII) 12,278 5.0% 5.4% Capital Region Workforce Partnership (LWIA IX) 25,603 4.6% 4.9% Crater Area (LWIA XV) 4,939 6.6% 7.2% Greater Peninsula (LWIA XIV) 13,375 5.3% 5.5% Hampton Roads (LWIA XVI) 28,634 5.0% 5.2% New River/Mt. Rogers (LWIA II) 9,184 5.0% 5.5% Northern Virginia (LWIA XI) 41,474 3.7% 3.9% Piedmont Workforce Network (LWIA VI) 8,730 4.0% 4.1% Region 2000/Central VA (LWIA VII) 6,093 4.9% 5.1% Shenandoah Valley (LWIA IV) 12,030 4.5% 4.7% South Central (LWIA VIII) 4,681 5.9% 6.6% Southwestern Virginia (LWIA I) 5,777 7.6% 7.9% West Piedmont (LWIA XVII) 5,767 6.8% 7.3% Western Virginia (LWIA III) 7,838 4.6% 4.9%

Source: Virginia Employment Commission, LAUS

Virginia/US Unemployment Rates

Source: VEC/BLS

2 4 6 8 10 12 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 US VA

US: 5.5 VA: 4.9

Contact Info

Tim Kestner, Sr. Economist tokestner@vec.virginia.gov 804-786-8014 Leo Campos, PMP lcampos@vccs.edu 804-819-4430

Quarterly supply/demand

Supply Demand

Supplemental slides

Skill Levels (O*Net)

• Job Zone 1: Little or No Preparation Needed. Some of these occupations

may require a high school diploma or GED certificate.

• Job Zone 2: Some Preparation Needed. These occupations usually require

a high school diploma.

• Job Zone 3: Medium Preparation Needed. Most occupations in this zone

require training in vocational schools, related on-the-job experience, or an associate's degree.

• Job Zone 4: Considerable Preparation Needed. Most of these occupations

require a four-year bachelor's degree, but some do not.

• Job Zone 5: Extensive Preparation Needed. Most of these occupations

require graduate school. For example, they may require a master's degree, and some require a Ph.D., M.D., or J.D. (law degree).