CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Chemical And Biological Terrorism: Combating The Evolving Threat of Terrorism Norman J. Glover, FAEI, FASCE, FIStructE Executive Director: AEGIS Institute - New York, NY Researcher-WMD: Cranfield University, Royal Military College of Science, Shrivenham, Wilts, UK
Terrorism The sudden, violent, sometimes seemingly irrational � attack that strikes at unsuspecting citizens in their homes and workplaces, destroying their faith in society’s ability to provide safety Often an attempt to coerce or extort compliance with a � political demand
Terrorism It is a real problem � It is here � It is not going away � There is no political or policing solution in the � foreseeable future Consequence management is an after the fact � – Reaction prevention and protection are better � Saves lives There are things that engineers and architects can do to � protect the public while we seek a solution
The tactics of Terrorism Bombing � Chemical attack � Arson � Biological attack � Assassination � Radiological attack � Armed assault � (nuclear) Kidnapping � Electronic � Hostage taking � Hijacking �
Bombing - The tactic of choice It is attention getting � There is a wide choices of targets � Materials are readily available and inexpensive � Can be carried out by a small group, or even a single � person There is a high probability of escape without � apprehension or even identification
Terrorism: It has changed It used to be political - designed to: � – Get attention – Demonstrate power – Win sympathy and support – Send a message – Compel negotiations Now – The terrorist is interested in inflicting causalities � Major weapons continue to be bombs and guns � – But with increased casualties Offensive potential capabilities appears to be greater � than defensive capabilities at this time
Emerging: War on Society The terrorist - pseudo religious � – Cults – Rogues – Disaffected Goals - Target damage - Escalating casualties � – May not seek political influence or support Attack on US soil is easy (and likely) � The target may seem purposeless � Our Allies may see this as an internal problem � Unanswered attacks may encourage copycat attacks � Defensive action is likely to necessitate restrictions of � democratic freedoms and individual liberties
Planning a Terror Attack Motive - Influence or destruction � Response wanted � – Attention – Fear – Retaliation Select target to secure response �
Planning a Terror Attack - Cntd. Internal goals � – “Freedom fighters” want a moral “high” – Younger followers want an exciting fix – Something dynamic – Show power – Shoot a gun or explode a bomb Ramsey Yousef wanted � – 250,000 deaths at the WTC – 100,000 deaths at NY bridges and tunnels – Downing of 15 planes in one day in the Phil. Is.
The Terrorist has Tw o Constant Problems Supply � Security � We must consider the possibility of an “asymmetric” � attack by a state supported surrogate, on a superpower that can’t be challenged
Chemical and Biological Terrorism The Poor Man’s Atom Bomb
Comparative Coasts As weapons of mass destruction (WMD) they are � relatively cheap Estimated cost for mass causalities / Km 2 � – Conventional weapons $2000 – Nuclear weapons $800 – Chemical weapons $600 – Biological weapons $1 WMD by definition of the US Dept. of Health and Human � Services are those that can cause 1000 or more casualties
Chemical and Biological Agents Although very different in their effects and time of � onset, their pathways, and the vulnerabilities they exploit are very similar While militarized agents and dissemination methods are � more efficient, attack requires no cruise missile, no artillery, no jet bomber. A back pack or truck mounted sprayer, a hairspray � canister or even a perfume atomizer can produce significant casualties
Chemical Agents Suitably disseminated, produce incapacitating, lethal or � damaging effects on man, animals, plants or materials Chemical agents are comparatively immediate in their � action. – Recovery is time and agent dependent
Classification of Chemical Warfare Agents Vesicants - Blistering Agents � Cyanide - “Blood” agents � Pulmonary Agents - Attack the lungs � Nerve Agents - Attack neuro-muscular systems � Dosage is defined by concentration and time of � exposure – LCt50 = Lethal to 50% exposed
Nerve Gasses Considered the primary threat � – High toxicity – Absorbed through the eyes, respiratory tract and skin – Name Vapor Toxicity - LCt50 (Inhalation) (Mg - Min/M 3 ) – GA (Tabun) *140 **400 ***70 – GB (Sarin) 50-100 50-100 35 – GD 70 70 35 – VX 30-35 10 15 – * Chemical and biological defense handbook RMCS, 1996 – ** Field management of chemical casualties, USAMRIID, 1996 – *** USACHPPM tech guide 244, July 1999
Toxic Industrial Chemicals There are hundreds of Toxic Industrial Chemicals that, � while less efficient, can be used – Inexpensive – Easily obtained
Sarin - GB A colorless odorless liquid, derived from phosphorous, � lethal to humans and animals – A respiratory and percutaneous hazard – Blocks and paralyzes the neuromuscular system on which respiration and voluntary muscles depend Effects � – Nose – Rhinnorea (runny nose) – Airways – Bronchoconstriction (congested chest) – CNS - loss of consciousness, seizure – Eyes – miosis (pin point pupil)
Biological Agnets Include agents effective against humans, animals, � plants, materials and food Anti-personnel agents: Three general categories � – Pathogens - Microorganisms � Bacteria � Viruses � Rickettsia � Fungi – Toxins – Bioregulators
Potential Bio-Agents Anthrax � Plague � Encephalitis � Staphlococcal Enterotoxin � Tularemia � Smallpox � Many others �
Anthrax Bacillus Anthracis: The Greek word for coal � – The color of the formed scab Endemic infection of animals � Humans infected through skin by contaminated fluids � or hides – Also by inhalation or eating infected meat The self-styled national disease of Czarist Russia � – Caused 3500 deaths annually USSR produced 5000 tons in 1987 � Iraq produced 6000 liters prior to the Gulf war. �
Anthrax - Cntd. The US Joint Chiefs consider Anthrax the biggest � biological threat to the armed forces 300 Threats of Anthrax attack in the US in 1999 � 1 Trillion spores per gram � LD50 dosage(now called Median Infectious Dose, LD50) � – 10,000 spores by inhalation (US or USSR manufactured level of virulence) – This is not a minimum infectious dose A series of tests at Ft. Detrick developed the following � curve – LD80% - 100,000 spores – LD33% - 1,000 spores – LD14% - 100 spores Potentially a single spore can be fatal (probability 1%) �
Anthrax - Cntd. One to six day incubation, followed by fever, muscle � pain, cough and fatigue Pre-treatment with vaccines and anti-biotics have been � found effective in reducing and preventing fatality Once symptoms occur - fatality rate is more than 90% �
Anthrax: Sverdlovsk, USSR 1979 Population - 200,000 � Estimated in plume - 50,000 � 64 deaths from 4 - to 42 days after release � 14% recovered after treatment � Estimated total quantity of toxin � – US Army - Dugway 1 gm. – DIA 10 gm. – CIA 70 gm. – Minimum 2-4 milligram (Meselson – Guillemun) Estimated exposure: 6-10 spores / person �
Necessary Requirements for Planning a Biological Attack (ANTHRAX) 1 – Willingness to use this weapon � 2 – Ability to secure a virulent strain as a basis for � production 3 – Ability to produce / grow a quantity of the toxin � 4 – Ability to design and build a dissemination device � capable of producing large numbers of causalities
Current U.S Planning: Consequence Management All major planning deals with post attack response and � recovery Establish that there has been an attack � Identify the agent to treat � Triage and medical treatment � Order the required body bags � Decontaminate � Restore services � Hunt down the perpetrator(s) �
Functional goals of Involved Agencies Medical � – Identify the agent – Treat the casualties Government � – Decontaminate – Maintain or restore vital services Law Enforcement � – Identify and arrest the criminal Armed Forces � – Force protection: Use of masks and protective garments
Proposed Alternative Program: G etting Ahead of the Curve Prevent attack � Protect the public � Mitigate weapons effects �
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