AIM Model Presentation Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AIM Model Presentation Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AIM Model Presentation Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi Yuzuru Matsuoka Kyoto University, Japan 1. Brief introduction of the AIM 2. Projection of Global Warming 3. Mitigation of Global Warming Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 1

AIM Model Presentation

1. Brief introduction of the AIM 2. Projection of Global Warming 3. Mitigation of Global Warming

Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi Yuzuru Matsuoka Kyoto University, Japan

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 2

Policymaking Process AIM (Asian team)

IMAGE

(Netherlands）

GCAM

（USA）

Integrated Assessment Model

ecology policy sciences hydraulics

meteorology

geochemistry

paleo- climatology

geophysics

Atmospheric Chemistry

economics pedology

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 3

The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model

  • AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated

Model.

  • It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM),

and a large-scale computer simulation model developed to promote the integrated assessment process in the Asia-Pacific region

  • Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea,

Thailand and Malaysia members.

  • The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began

an international collaboration system from 1994.

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 4

The AIM Approach

Japan team India team China team Korea team Thailand team Malaysia team

Ecosystem

Water resource Sea level rise Agriculture Human health

GHG emissions Climate change

APEIS IPCC

UNEP/GEO3

Eco-Asia EMF19

National government private companies

apply

model develop- ment Population model Lifestyle Land use model Energy model Technology Economic model

Atmospheric chemistry

Climatic change Ocean uptake Carbon cycle

Mitigation

  • f

Climate Change Adaptation

  • f

Climate Change AIM/Emission, AIM/Material AIM/Climate AIM/Ecosystem

AIM/Trend

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 5

AIM/Emission

CCSR/NIES CGCM

AIM

(Asian-Pacific Integrated Model)

AIM/Emission AIM/Climate AIM/Ecosystem

Atmos- phere Land Surface

Ocean

Adaptation Water Resource Land-use Crop Productivity Food Demand And Supply Socio-Econ. Factors Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 6

AIM/Emission Coupling of Top-down model and Bottom-up model

Regional Air Pollution Model

Population

Resource Base

Lifestyle Socio-Economic Scenarios Goods and Service Price

Goods & Service Demand

Energy Price Industrial Process Change

Regional / National Bottom-up Model

Technology Change End Use Energy Efficiency Social Energy Efficiency

Food Consumption Pattern

Industrial Production Final Energy Demand Final Energy Supply Energy Conversion Technology Efficiency Primary Energy Supply Energy Conversion Technology Biomass Energy Demand

Global Energy-Economic Model

Goods & Service Supply

Biomass Farm

Global Land Equilibrium Model AIM/emission

GHGs Emissions AIM/climate Model GDP GDP Population

Resource Base

GDP Population

Energy Service Deman d

Social Energy Efficiency Change End Use Technology Change End Use Technology Energy Resource Exploitation Technology Other Inputs Land Input Cropland Pasture Forest

Other Land

SO2, NOx, SPM Emissio n

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 7

A1FI (A1C) A2 A1FI (A1G) A1B B2 A1T B1

CO2 Emission Scenarios

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 8

AIM/Climate

CCSR/NIES CGCM

AIM

(Asian-Pacific Integrated Model)

AIM/Emission AIM/Climate AIM/Ecosystem

Atmos- phere Land Surface

Ocean

Adaptation Water Resource Land-use Crop Productivity Food Demand And Supply Socio-Econ. Factors Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 9

AIM/Climate

convection and transport of aerosol, SO2 and NOx Climate model Radiative forcing, Energy balance Upwelling-Diffusion ocean model AIM/emission Global temperature change

Glaciers Greenland Antarctica

Carbon cycle model CH4 model N2O model CFCs model

Sea level rise Ice melt Thermal expansion Balance and Chemical model

  • f GHGs

Natural change Sea level rise model

Spatial interpolation with GCM

GCM,RegCM experiments Regional temperature change Ocean model

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 10

Temperature change between 1990 and 2100

1～1.5 1.5～2 2～2.5 2.5～3 3～3.5 3.5～4 4～4.5 4.5～5 5～5.5 5.5～6 B1 2.0±0.5 A1T 2.5±0.6 B2 2.7±0.6 A1B 2.9±0.6 A2 3.8±0.8 A1FI 4.5±0.9 All 3.1±1.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 1 Fitted probability and frequency of occurence 1 2 3 4 5 6 Temperature change (C)

Geometric mean= 2.88 C S.D. of logarithm= 0.346

←5% 1.63C ←50% 2.88C ←95% 5.1C

T e m p e r a t u r e c h a n g e ( C ) F r e q u e n c y

  • f
  • c

c u r r e n c e s

Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3, HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 11

Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF

< -30

  • 20～-15
  • 5～0

10～15 25～30 Japan 4.6±9.9% China 7.2±9.4% India 3.7±19.5% 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

<1.0 1.0-1.5 1.5-2.0 2.0-2.5 2.5-3.0 3.0-3.5 3.5-4.0 4.0-4.5 4.5-5.0 5.0-5.5 5.5-6.0 6.0-6.5 6.5-7.0 > 7.0

Global 3.1±1.1℃ Japan 3.7±1.3℃ China 3.9±1.4℃ India 3.1±1.1℃ 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

Frequency of

  • ccurrence

Frequency of

  • ccurrence

Precipitation change (%) T e m p e r a t u r e c h a n g e ( ℃ ℃ )

Precipitation change Temperature change

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 12

AIM/Ecosystem

CCSR/NIES CGCM

AIM

(Asian-Pacific Integrated Model)

AIM/Emission AIM/Climate AIM/Ecosystem

Atmos- phere Land Surface

Ocean

Adaptation Water Resource Land-use Crop Productivity Food Demand And Supply Socio-Econ. Factors Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 13

Wheat productivity change in some countries from 1990 to 2100

  • 100

～-70

  • 70

～-60

  • 60

～-50

  • 50

～-40

  • 40

～-30

  • 30

～-20

  • 20

～-10

  • 10

～0 0～10 10～20 20～30 30～40 40～50 50～

J a p a n 2 4 . 3 ± 4 . 4 % C h i n a 3 3 . 2 ± 1 2 . 5 % I n d i a

  • 3

4 . 3 ± 1 6 . 1 % C a n a d a 9 . 6 ± 1 9 . 8 % 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

  • 1

～ ～

  • 7
  • 7

～ ～

  • 6
  • 6

～ ～

  • 5
  • 5

～ ～

  • 4
  • 4

～ ～

  • 3
  • 3

～ ～

  • 2
  • 2

～ ～

  • 1
  • 1

～ ～ ～ ～ 1 1 ～ ～ 2 2 ～ ～ 3 3 ～ ～ 4 4 ～ ～ 5 5 ～ ～

Japan -6.5±1.5% China -5.9±10.6% India -53.2±19.9% Canada 29.7±6.9% 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

P r

  • d

u c t i v i t y c h a n g e ( % ) Productivity change (%) Frequency of

  • ccurrence

F r e q u e n c y

  • f
  • c

c u r r e n c e

Without CO2 fertilization With CO2 fertilization

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 14

Costs and Benefits Atmospheric Stabilization

  • 70～-65
  • 65～-60
  • 60～-55
  • 55～-50
  • 50～-45
  • 45～-40
  • 40～-35
  • 35～-30
  • 30～-25
  • 25～-20
  • 20～-15
  • 15～-10
  • 10～-5
  • 5～0

0～5 5～10

S R E S

  • 3

4 ± 1 6 % 4 5 p p m

  • 1

4 ± 5 . 8 % 5 5 p p m

  • 2

± 6 . 8 % 6 5 p p m

  • 2

6 ± 7 . % 7 5 p p m

  • 2

9 ± 7 . 8 %

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40

Productivity change (%) F r e q u e n c y

  • f
  • c

c u r r e n c e A1FI A2 A1B B2 A1T 750ppm 650ppm 550ppm 450ppm 4.1 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 2.9 3.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Wheat productivity change in India from 1990 to 2100, with CO2 fertilization

GDP loss (%)

GDP reduction relative to SRES scenarios

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Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 15

Some Representative results of AIM calculation

  • Global temperature increases in 2100 are 3.1±1.1℃, lower

and upper 5 percentile temperatures are 1.6 and 5.1℃.

  • Climate change impacts are serious in some sectors and

countries. India, wheat productivity, 34±16% and 53±20% decrease w/wo CO2 fertilization.

  • Some impacts are recovered by these mitigations. In the

Indian case, the percentages of recovered are;

  • The costs of atmospheric

stabilization are in GDP% loss

Target concentration 450ppm 550ppm 650ppm 750ppm % recovered 20% 14% 8% 5%

Reference Scenario B2 A2 450ppm target 0.9 3.6 550ppm target 0.6 3.3 650ppm target 0.3 2.3 750ppm target 0.0 1.2