Scenario-based Analyses of Energy System Development and its - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ram M. Shrestha Sunil Mall Migara Liyange Asian Institute of Technology

Prepared for 12th AIM International Workshop, 19-21 February 2006, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Scenario-based Analyses of Energy System Development and its Environmental Implications in Thailand

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Outline

• Socio-economic and energy

profile/transitions in Thailand

• Scenario-based analysis
• Some current/planned policies favoring

LCS

Demographic profile/transition

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Population (millions)

Source: UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Medium Variant.

Population (millions)

• Total population is estimated to peak by 2040 (75 millions).
• Main reasons for slow projected growth rate is due to decline in total

fertility rate and life expectancy improvement.

AAGR : 1950-2000 : 2.3% 2000 – 2050: 0.4%

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1.93 1.85 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 Total fertility rate (children per woman)

Source: UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Medium Variant.

Total fertility rate (children per woman)

• The total fertility rate falls from 1.93 children per woman between the

period of 2000-2005 to about 1.85 children per woman by the period of 2045-2050.

Total fertility rate (children per woman)

• The total fertility rate falls from 1.93 children per woman between the

period of 2000-2005 to about 1.85 children per woman by the period of 2045-2050.

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Percentage (%)

Rural Urban

Source: UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Medium Variant. Values for 2035-2050 are estimated.

Urban-Rural Population (%)

• In 2000, urban population was 31% of total population and it is projected to

double (62%) by 2050.

• By 2035, the share of both urban and rural population estimated to reach

about 50%.

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Population by age group (%)

• The number of people aged 65 and over rose from 0.6 million in 1950

(3.2% of total population) to 3.7 millions in 2000 (6% of total population) and it is projected to increase by 21.4% (16 millions) in 2050.

• On the other hand, the number of people aged 0-4 is estimated to decline

in the future.

5 10 15 20 25 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Percentage in total population (%)

Aged 65 or over Aged 0-4

Source: UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Medium Variant.

AAGR (2000-2050) : Aged 0-4:

• 0.8 %

Aged 65 and over: 2.6 %

Energy and economy profile/transition

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Primary energy supply mix (Mtoe)

Source: DEDE (2007)

72 74 70 74 77 80 86 92 100 103 20 40 60 80 100 120 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Primary energy supply mix (Mtoe) Commercial energy New and renewable energy

AAGR (1996-2005): Commercial: 4.2% New and renewable: 2.0% AAGR (1996-2005): Commercial: 4.2% New and renewable: 2.0%

• The total primary energy supply grew at an AAGR of 4.1% during last

decade, from 72 Mtoe in 1996 to 103 Mtoe in 2005.

AAGR (1996-2005): Commercial: 4.2% New and renewable: 2.0%

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 Gross domestic product (MER and PPPs) GDP (billion US$ at 2000 prices and ex. rates) GDP (billion US$ at 2000 prices and PPPs)

• In 1971, the country’s GDP was it roughly US$ 20.2 billion (at 2000 prices

and exchange rate) and increased by more than seven-folds in size to approximately US$150 billion by 2004.

• Over the period of 1971-2004, GDP grew with AAGR of 6.3%.

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

Source: IEA (2006)

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

Source: IEA (2006)

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

Source: IEA (2006)

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3% AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

Source: IEA (2006)

Gross domestic product (GDP)

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

Source: IEA (2006)

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

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• During 1971-2004:
• Total electricity demand rising very rapidly: it grew by 8.6% per year

from 126 kWh/capita in 1971 to 1,865 kWh/capita in 2004.

• Oil demand grew by 6.3% per year from 124 thousand bbl/day in 1971

to 920 thousand bbl/day in 2004.

Electricity consumption per capita and Oil demand

AAGR (1971-2005): Electricity consumption per capita: 8.6% Oil demand: 6.3%

• During 1971-2004:
• Total electricity demand rising very rapidly: it grew by 8.6% per year

from 126 kWh/capita in 1971 to 1,865 kWh/capita in 2004.

• Oil demand grew by 6.3% per year from 124 thousand bbl/day in 1971

to 920 thousand bbl/day in 2004.

Electricity consumption per capita and Oil demand

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 Index (1971 = 100) Oil demand Electricity consumption/capita

Source: IEA (2006)

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0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 TPES / GDP (toe per thousand 2000 US$)

Source: IEA (2006)

• Over the past decade (1990-2004), primary energy intensity in Thailand is

in increasing trends unlike in the OECD and the world average.

Primary energy intensity

(toe per thousand 2000 US$ using MER)

AAGR (1990-2004): Thailand: 1.1% OECD average:

• 1.0%

World average:

• 1.6%

Energy System Development and Emissions in Thailand under Selected Scenarios

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Energy and emissions scenarios for Thailand

• Time horizon: 2000 – 2050
• No explicit climate intervention policies
• New and emerging technologies considered
• Main scenario drivers:

– socio-economic dynamics – energy efficiency improvements – penetration of renewable energy technologies

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Scenario description

Scenario Description Economy Demography Technology TA1 Global market High growth 2000-2020: 7.5% 2021-2050: 5.5% Low population growth: 0.02% p.a Energy efficiency improvement: 0.3% p.a TA2 Dual track Moderate growth 2000-2020: 6% 2021-2050: 5% High population growth: 0.74% Energy efficiency improvement: 0.2% p.a TB1 Sufficiency economy Medium growth 2000-2020: 6.5% 2021-2050: 5.5% Low population growth: 0.02% Energy efficiency improvement: 0.4% p.a TB2 Local stewardship Low growth 2000-2020: 4% 2021-2050: 3% Medium population growth: 0.39% Energy efficiency improvement: 0.1% p.a

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Existing and candidate power generation technologies considered in the study

Technology Fuel type

• A. Fossil fuel and biomass based technologies

Conventional steam Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) Pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC) Combined cycle Combined cycle – advanced Gas turbine Biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) Lignite, natural gas, fuel oil, biomass Lignite and bituminous coal Lignite and bituminous coal Natural gas and fuel oil Natural gas Natural gas and fuel oil Biomass

• B. Renewables based technologies

Hydro, wind, solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and geothermal

• C. CCS

Coal and Natural gas

Altogether 18 existing and new power generation technologies are considered

Results and Discussions

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Pre-dominance of fossil fuels

Dominance of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix: 2000: 81% 2050: 95% (TA1), 92% (TA2), 93% (TB1) and 87% (TB2)

• 100

200 300 400 500 600 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Primary energy supply (Mtoe) T A1 T A2 T B1 T B2

AAGR (%) Ratio 2050/2000 TA1 4.1 7.4 TA2 3.6 5.9 TB1 3.4 5.4 TB2 2.5 3.5

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30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Energy consumption (ktoe) Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Natural gas Biofuels Hydrogen TA1 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Energy consumption (ktoe) Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Natural gas Biofuels Hydrogen TA2 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Energy consumption (ktoe) Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Natural gas Biofuels Hydrogen TB1 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Energy consumption (ktoe) Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Natural gas Biofuels Hydrogen TB2

Transportation energy requirements by energy type under the four scenarios during 2000-2050 (ktoe).

Energy mix: Share of fossil fuels: 100% in 2000 Share of alternative fuels (biofuels and hydrogen): 38% (TA1); 17% (TA2); 15% (TB1); and 4% (TB2) in 2050. Large share inTA1 due to lagrge share of hydrogen.

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Residential sector energy use patterns by end-use services under four scenarios during 2000-2050

Share (cumulative) of end-use energy demand in residential sector (%) Cooking Air conditioni ng Lighting Others Refrigeration TA1 66.5 14.7 8.9 5.9 4.0 63.8 14.6 TA2 64.8 15.4 8.6 6.8 4.4 68.6 20.6 TB1 64.0 15.9 8.7 6.8 4.6 48.6 15.1 TB2 68.6 12.1 9.0 6.2 4.1 55.8 27.8 Cumulative residential sector energy consumption during 2000- 2050 (Mtoe) Share of residential sector in cumulative total energy consumption (%)

• Share of residential sector’s share in cumulative total energy consumption vary from 14.6% (63.8

Mtoe) under TA1 to 27.8% (55.8 Mtoe) under TB2.

• Cooking requires about two-thirds of total residential energy requirements under all four

scenarios.

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Electricity generation mix under four scenarios during 2000-2050 (TWh)

Coal Oil Natural gas Biomass CCS* Others**

• 100

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electricity generation (TWh) TA1 Coal Oil Natural gas Biomass CCS* Others**

• 100

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electricity generation (TWh) TA2

Coal Oil Natural gas Biomass CCS* Others**

• 100

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electricity generation (TWh) TB1

Coal Oil Natural gas Biomass Others**

• 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electricity generation (TWh) TB2

• Coal and natural gas: Main fuels for electricity generation under all four scenarios (71% under

TA2 in 2050).

• CCS based electricity generation in TA1, TA2 and TB1. (CCS share: 10% under TA2 in 2050).

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In the reference scenario (TA2), annual CO2 emission in 2050 (1088 Mt) would be 1,088 Mt compared to 158 Mt in 2000.

CO2 emission figures in 2050 under TA1: 1,343; TB1: 973 and TB2: 660 Mt.

• 200

400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2 emissions (Mt) TA1 TA2 TB1 TB2

AAGR (%) Ratio 2050/2000 TA1 4.4 8.5 TA2 3.9 6.9 TB1 3.7 6.2 TB2 2.8 4.2

Energy related total CO2 emissions, Mt

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Industry sector has the largest share in total CO2 emissions after 2020, followed by power, transport and others sectors.

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO 2 emissions (Mt) Industry Power Transport Others*

From 2000 to 2050: Power : 37 to 28% Transport : 35 to 27% Industry : 21 to 40% Others : 7 to 5%

Sectoral CO2 emissions in reference scenario (TA2), Mt

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• 100

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Electricity generation (TWh) Coal Oil Natural gas Biomass CCS* Others**

TA2

846 733 781 371 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 TA1 TA2 TB1 TB2 Electricity generation (TWh) Coal Natural gas Biomass CCS* Others**

2050

* CCS is carbon capture and storage and ** others includes hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, MSW and biogas.

AAGR : 4.2%

• In 2050, coal and natural gas contribute more than 70% of total electricity generation

under all scenarios.

• In the reference case:
• CCS based electricity generation would be cost-effective after 2020.
• Role of RETs remain low (7% in 2050) due to limited availability of domestic RE

resources e.g., biomass, wind and hydro and high cost of solar power generation.

Energy/technology mix in electricity generation, TWh

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Technology deployment in road transportation under reference scenario (TA2)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Percentage share (% ) Covent ional Convent ional efficient Hybrid Fuel cell Elect ric Nat ural gas

By 2050:

• Conventional vehicle technologies would represent about 8% of total vehicle stocks.
• Most the vehicle stocks would be based on fuel cell (45%) followed by hybrid (36%) electric (6%)

and efficient and NGV (5%).

• Both hybrid and fuel cell technologies would be cost effective starting from year 2020 onwards.

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CO2 emissions per capita, CO2 emissions intensity and primary energy intensity in 2000 and selected future years under four scenarios

Global market Dual track Sufficiency economy Local stewardship 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Per capita CO2 emissions (tons/capita) 2.6 9.2 21.6 6.8 12.2 7.0 15.7 4.8 8.9 CO2 emission intensity (kg/US$,1995price) 0.92 0.52 0.39 0.56 0.49 0.47 0.38 0.62 0.62 Primary energy intensity (kgoe/US$,1995price) 0.44 0.21 0.16 0.23 0.20 0.20 0.16 0.26 0.25 2000

• CO2 emission intensity: 0.92 in 2000 to 0.49 in 2050
• Primary energy intensity: 0.44 in 2000 to 0.20 in 2050

In the Reference Scenario (TA2): Per capita CO2 emission increases and is higher than in the other scenarios.

Environmental Friendly Policy/Program Developments in Thailand

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• Enforced government

fleets use Gasohol

• Gas stations in govern.

must sell Gasohol

Formulate policy on utilizing High Performance Vehicles for E10 and FFV

• Spec. of Gasohol 95 & 91
• Emission test on using

Gasohol 95

• Defined gasohol use in Spec.
• f new vehicle procurement
• Requested governments’

vehicles to refill gasohol

Formulated policy

• n fade out MTBE

in ULG 95 and promote Gasohol 91 in some areas

Gasohol Strategic Plan

Phase I MTBE replacement

Ethanol 1.0 mill. lts /d Ethanol 3.0 mill. lts /d

Cabinet Resolution 9 Dec. 2003

• Cab. Res. 18 May 04

Phase II Gasohol Mandate

2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 1 1 2 9 2 1

• Cab. Res. 19 April 05

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Action Plan on Bio-diesel Utilization Promotion and Development R&D

8.50 3.96 1.76 0.76 0.46 0.36 0.06 0.03

7 0.67 9 1.07 15 1.40 35 79 85 1.2 0.6

Utilization (MLPD) Bio-diesel Production (MLPD)

0.6 0.26 Raw Material

Expanding palm oil cultivation areas: 4 million Rai in Thailand and 1 million Rai in neighbouring countries R&D on yield of palm oil (2.7 to 3.3 tonnes/ Rai/ year) R&D on yield of Jatropha (0.4 to 1.2 tonnes/ Rai/ year) Expanding Jatropha Cultivation Areas Community-based Commercial-based

2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005

Commercial Scale of B100 Production and Utilization of B5 in the South and the Central Part of Thailand Community Scale development and B100 Specification Establishment

Substitute B100 to 10% Diesel

I ntensive R&D on enhancing values of by-products from bio-diesel production

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Some policies towards low carbon society

• Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives has a target to

increase productivity of cassava production by 50% and sugarcane production by 66.6%:

• Gasohol95 price lower than gasoline price; Price

reduced further recently. Difference of 1.75 Baht/liter.

• Tax cuts/elimination on NGV auto parts
• Small biomass waste based power generation to get

higher buyback rate (0.3 Baht per unit more)– 30MW by 2012.

• Renewable portfolio standard set at 8% in 2011(0.5%

in2003).

• Local production of eco-car (small fuel efficient) planned
• Labeling of electrical appliances to be extended to

additional devices.

• Double track rail construction being planned.

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Some policies towards low carbon society (2)

• Government subsidy of over USc 6.7/kWh for wind

power

• Feed-in rate for solar power at 15 Baht per kWh (>

$ 0.40/kWh), but cap on total volume.

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Publication

• Ram M. Shrestha, Sunil Malla, and Migara H. Liyanage,

Scenario-based analysis of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand, Energy Policy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.007