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ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN SYSTEM WITH A HIGH RES SCENARIO Vera Silva, Marie Perrot EDF R&D Toulouse, 8 September 2015 | 1 Simulation of the EU Energy Roadmap HiRES 2030 scenario HiRES scenario EU energy

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ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN SYSTEM WITH A HIGH RES SCENARIO

EDF R&D

Toulouse, 8 September 2015 Vera Silva, Marie Perrot

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| 2 Fuel Price Coal 86 €/t Gas 10 €/MBtu Oil 107 €/baril CO2 35 €/t

Simulation of the EU Energy Roadmap « HiRES 2030 » scenario

60 % RES

(generation)

40 % Wind & Solar

Thermal fossil fuel Wind offshore Biomass & Geothermal Nuclear Solar Wind Onshore Hydro power

High RES 2030 GW Load factor (h/yr) Solar (PV) 220 1100 Onshore wind 280 1900 Offshore wind 205 3200 Hydro 120 3800

HiRES scenario

EU energy roadmap

Generation Mix 2030

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What is this study about?

Flexibility to handle variability Flexibility to handle variability Connecting RES and load Connecting RES and load Keeping the lights on Keeping the lights on Balancing the economics Balancing the economics

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Marginal prices

PV Marginal price h

Euro/MWh

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Location of VG Hourly load factors (or lower resolution) VG forecast errors

Flex Assessment

CONTINENTAL Model

Reserves and flexibility adequacy

Economic analysis Dynamic simulation platform

Market prices and generation costs Generation load factors Interconection load factors Generation mix Frequency stability VG curtailment Plant revenues

Investment / hourly dispatch

Investment loop Representation of VG Representation of VG Demand time series Investment costs Generation dynamic constraints Fuels costs CO2 price Network transfer capacities Input data

An integrated approach for the technical and economical analysis of High RES scenarios in Europe is required

M. Lopez‐Botet, et all, ‘Methodology for the economic and technical analysis of the European power system with a large

share of variable renewable generation’, presented at IEEE PES General Meeting, Washington, USA, 27‐31 July, 2014. Langrene, N., van Ackooij, W., Breant, F., ‘Dynamic Constraints for Aggregated Units: Formulation and Application’, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.26, no.3, Aug. 2011.

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Understanding the variability

‐100 ‐ 100 200 300 400 500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 ‐100 ‐ 100 200 300 400 500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

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100 150 200 250 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

Onshore wind daily average generation 30 climatic years

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

30% 15%

Average difference

f daily generation:

90 GW Averageload factor : 25% Installedpower : 280 GW

Summer Winter

Geographical diversity does help, but there is still significant variability at European level

Source RTE

You can reduce the variability of wind at local level but the correlation in wind regimes acts as a limit at continental level

22%