Decomposition of trends in non-marital fertility ratios of Black - - PDF document

1 Decomposition of trends in non-marital fertility ratios of Black Africans and Whites in South Africa, 1996 and 2011 Mosidi S. Nhlapo, Statistics South Africa Lesego Lefakane, Statistics South Africa Abstract This paper uses decomposition to analyse trends in factors responsible for changes in non- marital fertility ratios (NFR) for the White and Black African population groups in South African for 1996 and 2011, the data is from 1996 and 2011 South African censuses. The analysis identifies two components / sources or of changes in the NFR over this period; one based on the changing structure of births by marital status and the other is related to changes in non-marital child births due to changes in NFR within each population group respectively. Analysis show that although NFR declined for both population groups, fertility of married women also declined over the study period. Increases in conception within cohabiting relationship were not significant to impact NFR upwards for both groups. For White population group non-marital birth accounted for 17% of all births, and that most births (above 80%) still occur within marriage, making non-marital fertility the least contributor to

• ver all fertility of the group. In the case of Black Africans, above 40% of all births are

nonmarital, even though NFR declined over the period. Marital fertility also declined for this group as well. Critically, the results point to increasing importance of cohabitation for births in South Africa, a factor warranting further research on the situation of such births.

2 BACKGROUND Africa has been regarded as the last continent to experience demographic transition as declines in both fertility and mortality has been slow (Vollmer 2015). Studies have documented how Africa still has the highest fertility rate in the world, although a decline is

• evident. South Africa’s fertility levels are particularly interesting as they are the lowest in
• Africa. The history of the introduction of family planning in the country much earlier than the

rest of the continent is an interesting one. This is also compounded by fertility out of marital unions, which also departs from the rest of the continent. Although earlier research alluded to HIV/AIDS not having an impact on fertility levels (UNSD 2002), recent studies have shown converse results (Marston, Nakiyingi-Miiro et al. 2016) and this is important as South Africa is one of the most affected countries in the world. This epidemic has also brought nuances in demographic phenomena that have not been seen

• before. Therefore, all these interesting components that affects the demography of South

Africa presents an opportunity to critically analyse census data in order to investigate fertility levels, trends and differentials in South Africa as well as the corresponding correlates and their consequences. Although a lot of research has been done on fertility in South Africa since the dawn of democracy, one can argue that little is still known about the precise nature

• f the determinants of fertility in the country. Research tells us that although fertility is

influenced by socio-economic factors, these factors have to operate through biological and behavioural factors (marriage, contraception use, abortion, breastfeeding etc.) and these directly affect fertility. Palamuleni (2011) argues that the mechanisms through which socio- economic factors affect biological and behavioural factors in order to influence fertility has not been fully understood in South Africa. The African continent has undergone has undergone (and still is undergoing) demographic changes especially when one looks at fertility and nuptiality patters. Marriage in the past was traditionally virtually universal and occurred early in life, however recent research has shown that median ages at marriage are rapidly rising. Proportions of never married women are on the increase and first marriage is delayed in Africa and more so in South Africa. Other scholars attribute this to increasing levels of education, urbanisation and economic

• pportunities as well as new attitudes and preference among young women for later

marriages and remaining unmarried (Garenne, Tollman et al. 2000). Unlike in other African countries, fertility out of wedlock is not as taboo in South Africa and therefore contributing to some women having children in their early years (teenage/adolescents) then resuming their fertility again once they are in unions. Because South Africa has long showed signs of late

3 marriage for its women, this has often been associated with the increase in the risk of premarital fertility especially for black Africans. South Africa has the highest pre-marital fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa. One of the biggest contributing factors could be the high adolescent fertility and late marriage among especially among Black South Africans (Madhavan, Harrison et al. 2013). Several studies have been done relating to non-marital fertility. Palamuleni and Adebowale (2014) looked at premarital childbearing among unmarried female youths in sub-Saharan Africa. The study revealed that premarital childbearing is still a problem in the region. This study however did not look at all childbearing ages and also did not look specifically at South Africa. Madhavan, Harrison et al. (2013) looked at the management of non-marital fertility among young women in KwaZulu–Natal and Mpumalanga. However, this study was qualitative and located in communities within Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) and therefore may not be representative of the entire country. Using the 1996 and 2001 censuses Palamuleni (2011) decomposed changes in the age structure, proportion married and marital fertility, using crude birth rate (CBR) as an indicator. The study found that changes in marriage and marital fertility were significant in their contribution to fertility

• decline. Smith, Morgan et al. (1996) decomposed the trends in non-marital fertility of blacks

and whites in the United States, They found that increases in proportion of women not married at all ages accounted to increases in non-marital fertility for blacks, while for white women, the authors found that declines in marital fertility was important in increasing non- marital fertility. Yi (1991) decomposed CBR into components attributable to changes in age structure, age at marriage as well as marital fertility. Their results show that changing age structure and the declining age at marriage were mainly responsible for the increase in CBR for China as a whole as well as in most of the provinces. The increase in marital fertility was found to be less important. Shakya (2016) also used decomposition to determine components of change in Nepal TFR focusing on marital structure and marital fertility. There has however been no recent study looking at changes in non-marital births over time by population group with respect to marital status. This study aims to fill that gap. In order to contribute towards the understanding of the correlates of fertility in South Africa, this study aims at decomposing changes in non-marital fertility using the first census since democracy (1996) as well as the latest census conducted (2011). Decomposition is a technique that is used in demography in order to break down changes in demographic parameters (fertility, mortality and migration) into two or more components. OBJECTIVE

4 The goal of this paper is to analyse changes in factors affecting proportion of non-marital births for Black Africans and White population groups in South Africa over time. METHODS The data used in this study comes from the 1996 and 2011 South African Population

• censuses. The 1996 census was the first census since the democratic dispensation and was

also the first to include the entire population. Because of the Apartheid regime, other population groups were not included in previous censuses in the country. Information regarding black Africans who constituted the majority population was only estimated and not

• collected. South Africa conducts decennial censuses and the 2011 census is the latest with

next one scheduled for 2021. Bothe censuses collected information on ‘’births in the last twelve months’’ as well as ‘’current marital status’’. The former are used to calculate various fertility measures including fertility ratios which is the subject of this study, the latter on the

• ther hand can be used to calculate the proportion of currently married women.

Statistics South Africa produced a report on the quality of the census 2011 data, and according to that report marital status was not heavily imputed (edited) and therefore appraising the quality of the variables used in this study. Age and sex data were also of good quality according to the report. However, censuses in South Africa have been mired by high rates of undercounts, and this has been on the increase even with the latest census. The 1996 and 2011 South African population census data to decompose the factors affecting the increase in non-marital birth ratio of Black Africans and for the White population group separately. We define non-marital birth as those births occurring to never married women and cohabiting women. Births are classified into two groups for analysis purposes; the first group consists of births to never married women and cohabiting women (Non- marital; births). The second group consists of births that occurred to married women. We compute NFR for both population groups and for 1996 and 2011. NFR is defined as the ratio of the total number of non-marital births to all births symbolised by;

(1-α)(1-µ)

Where α is the proportion of non-marital births occurring at time t and t+1 among all births

• ccurring outside marriage (Baranowska-Rataj 2014).

And µ is the proportion of births occurring to married women at time t and t+1

5 We use decomposition method developed by Akerlof GA (1996) to identify two sources of changes in NFR. The first component is the contribution of changes in the structure of births by marital status

• f the mother to the changes in NFR for South Africa, Black Africans and White population

groups This is expressed as;

Cb= ((1- αt)(1- µt+1)-(1- αt)(1- µt))/(w t+1- w t)

Where w t+1- w t is the change in the NFR between t and t+1 The second component is the effect of changes in the occurrence of non-marital births to the NFR for the two population groups which is denoted by;

Cn= ((1- αt+1)(1- µt+1)-(1- αt)(1- µt+1))/(w t+1- w t)

ANALYSIS The proportion of births due to single women declined for both black African and White women between 1996 and 2011, the decline was only slightly for Africans while for White women it declined by about 50% (Table 1). The same observation is made for births by married women for both population group, this decline was only marginal among married white women and but it went down by about half among married black African women. The proportion of births occurring among cohabiting women increased for both groups, among White cohabiting women the increase was significant and only modestly among cohabiting back African women. In 1996 just above 3% of births occurred to cohabiting women, this had increased to 6% by 2011.

Table 1. Proportion of births to single, cohabiting and married women for Black Africans and White population groups, 1996 and 2011.

1996 2011 1996 2011 Black White Single 0.842 0.765 0.638 0.373 Cohabiting 0.158 0.235 0.362 0.627 Married 0.416 0.248 0.862 0.803

6 Preliminary analysis shows that Non-marital Ratio for both Black Africans the White population group declined between 1996 and 2001 from 0.0411 to 0.0132 and 0.0552 and 0.0148 respectively ( See Table 2). The big best decline in NFR is observed for the White population group with a decline of 4% between the two points. The country NFR mirrors Black African NFR, a testimony to compositional factors.

Table 2. Changes in Non-marital birth ratio (NFR) for South Africa, Black Africans and White population groups, 1996 and 2011. SA Black White 1996 0.0426 0.0411 0.0552 2011 0.0138 0.0132 0.0148 Change (0.0288) (0.0279) (0.0404)

The results of the decomposition (Table 3) indicate that for both population group shifts in number of births within marital status account for observed changes. The pattern for the white population group indicate that most conception still occur within marriage, alternatively, For White women, with highest decline in NFR which indicate increasing conception within relationship (cohabiting and married). For Black Africans, along with the observed declines in NFR over the period, the proportion of births occurring within marriage declined. The decline in NFR for black Africans is the result of declining births by single women, while cohabiting women experienced more births. The likelihood is that compositional factors play a significant role in the decline, a fact that warrants further investigation.

Table 3. Decomposition of factors influencing changes in NFR SA Black White 1st Component 0.4558 0.4640 0.1736 2nd Component 0.4595 0.4642 0.2518

The effect of changes in the occurrence of non-marital births to declining NFR was more pronounced for the White population group over period. In the case of the African population this change account for almost half of the declines in NFR observed over the period. DISCUSSION There has been some movement in the fertility within populations and by marital status. The results of the decomposition show that marital status account for most of the changes

7

• bserved in NFR over the two periods. There seem to have been shifts in occurrence of non-

marital births for White women, for this population group nonmarital birth accounted for 17%

• f all births. Thus in terms of the overall births, most child-bearing still occurs within marriage

in this group. The biggest drivers of increasing non-marital child bearing among white women were births within cohabiting relationship. For black women, non-marital births account for 46% all births but largely driven by births to single women, even though there was a reduction in births occurring to this group, this decline is not significant. In most European countries increases in NFR was accompanied by increasing economic activity of women and general increases in the status of women. Research has shown that although an increasing number of births have been occurring within cohabiting relationships in most developing nations, these have been to older and more educated women. Equality, births outside formal marriage has been found to be unintended and to result in reduced odds of subsequent marriage. For children born to unmarried mothers the risk of life of poverty and welfare receipt have been found to high. The situation of women and those children born to cohabiting and single women warrant further research to understand the background of the women and children born to these situations.

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