Two Objectives for the Two Objectives for the Scenario Scenario - - PDF document

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Two Objectives for the Two Objectives for the Scenario Scenario - - PDF document

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Two Objectives for the Two Objectives for the Scenario Scenario The 1906 Earthquake 2006 Centennial Commemoration of the San 2006 Centennial Commemoration of the San Scenario and Golden Francisco Earthquake -- Francisco

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SLIDE 1

NE HR P E ar thquake Sc e nar io Planning Wor kshop Se pte mbe r 17 and 18, 2008

The 1906 Earthquake Scenario and Golden Guardian ‘06 Exercise

Richard Eisner, FAIA Fritz Institute

Two Objectives for the Two Objectives for the Scenario Scenario

  • 2006 Centennial Commemoration of the San

2006 Centennial Commemoration of the San Francisco Earthquake Francisco Earthquake --

  • - Education &

Education & Awareness Awareness

  • Recurrence of 1906 Today

Recurrence of 1906 Today --

  • - The Full Monty

The Full Monty

  • 19 Counties

19 Counties

  • Current Built Environment

Current Built Environment

  • Golden Guardian 2006

Golden Guardian 2006 --

  • - Exercise Scenario

Exercise Scenario

  • DHS/OHS Catastrophic Regional Disaster

DHS/OHS Catastrophic Regional Disaster

Scenario Attributes

Multi-County Urban Region USGS Modeled Ground Motions From 1906 Undated Building Inventory Where Available Detail Assessments Where Available (OSHPD) HAZUS Augmented by Narrative on Lifelines

PG&E, BARTD, Caltrans

Team Effort

The Team The Team

  • California State Warning Center (Data)

California State Warning Center (Data)

  • United States Geological Survey (Ground

United States Geological Survey (Ground Motions and Time History, Aftershocks) Motions and Time History, Aftershocks)

  • PBS&J Atlanta (HAZUS Estimates and

PBS&J Atlanta (HAZUS Estimates and Graphics) Graphics)

  • Charles Kircher & Associates (HAZUS

Charles Kircher & Associates (HAZUS Estimates and Analysis) Estimates and Analysis)

  • Hope Seligson (HAZUS Estimates and

Hope Seligson (HAZUS Estimates and Analysis) Analysis)

  • Bay Area Regional Transit District (Narrative)

Bay Area Regional Transit District (Narrative)

  • California Department of Transportation

California Department of Transportation (Narrative) (Narrative)

  • Pacific Gas & Electric (Time History, Narrative)

Pacific Gas & Electric (Time History, Narrative)

  • OES, DHS, OHS, FEMA and HAZUS (Funding and

OES, DHS, OHS, FEMA and HAZUS (Funding and Staff) Staff)

  • West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center

West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (Graphics and Time History) (Graphics and Time History)

Multiple Objectives, Multiple Multiple Objectives, Multiple Funding Sources Funding Sources

  • California Office Of Emergency Services

California Office Of Emergency Services

  • Federal Emergency Management Agency

Federal Emergency Management Agency

  • EERI

EERI

  • DHS Urban Area Security Initiative

DHS Urban Area Security Initiative

  • OHS Homeland Security Exercise and

OHS Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program Evaluation Program

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SLIDE 2

Multiple Masters Multiple Masters

  • Anniversary Commemoration Wanted Global

Anniversary Commemoration Wanted Global Picture of Impact on Region Picture of Impact on Region

  • State and Region Wanted Earthquake

State and Region Wanted Earthquake Scenario for Exercise and Focus on Local to Scenario for Exercise and Focus on Local to State to Federal Communication and State to Federal Communication and Coordination of Response/Logistics Coordination of Response/Logistics

  • DHS Required More Fatalities, IEDs* ,

DHS Required More Fatalities, IEDs* , Terrorists, Field Theater and Media Attention Terrorists, Field Theater and Media Attention

* Improvised Explosive Devices * Improvised Explosive Devices

The Scenario Took on A Time The Scenario Took on A Time Dimension Dimension

  • Recognize That Scenario Is Not a Static End

Recognize That Scenario Is Not a Static End State Picture State Picture

  • Information Varies with Time and Scenario

Information Varies with Time and Scenario

  • There is Never Adequate Information for

There is Never Adequate Information for Decision Making / Decision Maker Decision Making / Decision Maker

  • Need to Train as You Would Play

Need to Train as You Would Play --

  • - In the

In the Fog of War Fog of War

For GGEX06 For GGEX06

  • Need to Disaggregate Data to Census Tracts

Need to Disaggregate Data to Census Tracts and Provide Time History and Provide Time History

  • Need to Develop Local Script of Damage and

Need to Develop Local Script of Damage and Sequence Sequence

  • Need to Use Available Estimates to Make the

Need to Use Available Estimates to Make the Best Decisions When Information Inadequate Best Decisions When Information Inadequate

  • Need to Think Strategically

Need to Think Strategically

Exercise Structure Exercise Structure

  • Regional Disaster Impacting 19 Counties

Regional Disaster Impacting 19 Counties

  • One Year of Planning & Preparation

One Year of Planning & Preparation

  • Sudden Onset Event*

Sudden Onset Event*

  • Cold Start Response

Cold Start Response

  • Ramping Up of Response Capability in Real

Ramping Up of Response Capability in Real Time Time

  • Replicate Actual Information Flow From Locals

Replicate Actual Information Flow From Locals Up to Region, State and Federal Levels Up to Region, State and Federal Levels

* Not a Hurricane or Flood * Not a Hurricane or Flood

What We Know and Don What We Know and Don’ ’t t Know Know

  • Only the Local Level Has Tactical Knowledge

Only the Local Level Has Tactical Knowledge

  • Locals Do Not Understand Overall Event

Locals Do Not Understand Overall Event

  • Hierarchy Aggregates Local Data

Hierarchy Aggregates Local Data

  • Sets Response Resource Allocation Priorities

Sets Response Resource Allocation Priorities

  • Paints Comprehensive Image

Paints Comprehensive Image

  • Disseminates Comprehensive to All Players

Disseminates Comprehensive to All Players

  • Others Play the Scenario

Others Play the Scenario

Concepts of Operation Concepts of Operation

  • Local Governments Are In charge

Local Governments Are In charge

  • State and Federal Levels Provide and Broker

State and Federal Levels Provide and Broker Resources Resources

  • Projected Need

Projected Need

  • OES SOC Provides Interface with Federal and

OES SOC Provides Interface with Federal and Inter Inter-

  • State Resources

State Resources

  • Use Information You Have Including ShakeMap

Use Information You Have Including ShakeMap and HAZUS Estimates and HAZUS Estimates

  • All Play in Real Time for 36 Hours

All Play in Real Time for 36 Hours

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SLIDE 3

Scenario Play Scenario Play

  • MSEL* Based on HAZUS Scenario and Time

MSEL* Based on HAZUS Scenario and Time History History

  • 3,000+ Messages Plus Additional Interventions

3,000+ Messages Plus Additional Interventions

  • County Level Estimates and Graphic Distribution

County Level Estimates and Graphic Distribution Disaggregated and Localized Disaggregated and Localized

  • Each County Played Their Role With Their Own

Each County Played Their Role With Their Own Piece of Event Piece of Event

  • Region/State Used Input from Counties and

Region/State Used Input from Counties and Estimates from HAZUS Estimates from HAZUS

* Master Scenario Event List * Master Scenario Event List

Best Made Plans Best Made Plans… …

  • Real Tsunami Advisory Issued by WCATWC

Real Tsunami Advisory Issued by WCATWC

  • Played Scenario and Real Tsunami Response

Played Scenario and Real Tsunami Response

05:12:00 05:12:00

  • 05:12:00

05:12:00 Earthquake Nucleates Earthquake Nucleates

  • 05:12:10

05:12:10 Electric Circuits Near Epicenter Begin to Electric Circuits Near Epicenter Begin to Trip Off Trip Off

  • 05:12:10

05:12:10 PG&E and ISO Op PG&E and ISO Op-

  • Centers Initiate Power

Centers Initiate Power Shedding to Balance Grid Shedding to Balance Grid

  • 05:12:10

05:12:10 Progressive Blackout of Region Initiated Progressive Blackout of Region Initiated to Prevent Cascading Failure to Prevent Cascading Failure

  • 05:12:30

05:12:30 Strong Ground Motions Felt Throughout Strong Ground Motions Felt Throughout Bay Region Bay Region

05:12:35 05:12:35

  • 05:12:35

05:12:35 State Warning Center State Warning Center Receives Receives Calls Calls from Coastal Counties on CALWAS from Coastal Counties on CALWAS – – “ “ Expletive! Expletive! We are having an Earthquake We are having an Earthquake” ”

  • 05:12:45

05:12:45 Earthquake Felt In Sacramento Earthquake Felt In Sacramento

  • 05:12:45

05:12:45 Electrical Power Off in Most Electrical Power Off in Most of the Bay

  • f the Bay

Region Region

  • 05:13:00

05:13:00 Earthquake Reported on Fox and CNN Earthquake Reported on Fox and CNN

05:13:00 05:13:00

  • Strong Ground Motions Taper Off

Strong Ground Motions Taper Off

  • Coastal County 911 Centers are Saturated

Coastal County 911 Centers are Saturated

  • Phone Systems Saturated

Phone Systems Saturated

  • BART Issues Stop Order for All Trains. Trains

BART Issues Stop Order for All Trains. Trains Already Stopped from Loss of Power. Two Trains Already Stopped from Loss of Power. Two Trains Stop in Tube Stop in Tube

05:15:00 05:15:00

  • CISN Posts Location of Earthquake Epicenter

CISN Posts Location of Earthquake Epicenter

  • Local Governments Responding to What They

Local Governments Responding to What They Can See Can See

  • State Warning Center Initiates Activation of

State Warning Center Initiates Activation of State Operations Center State Operations Center

  • California Geological Survey Activates Key Staff

California Geological Survey Activates Key Staff

  • CalTrans Initiates Remote Video Inspections of

CalTrans Initiates Remote Video Inspections of Bridges (If Operational) Bridges (If Operational)

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SLIDE 4

05:15:00 05:15:00

  • CalTrans Maintenance and Traffic Operations

CalTrans Maintenance and Traffic Operations Personnel Mobilized to EOCs and Maintenance Personnel Mobilized to EOCs and Maintenance Facilities Facilities

  • Media Provides Initial Public Information on

Media Provides Initial Public Information on Emergency Alert System Emergency Alert System

05:17:00 05:17:00

  • CISN Posts Location, Magnitude

CISN Posts Location, Magnitude

  • UC Berkeley Confirms Magnitude, Location to

UC Berkeley Confirms Magnitude, Location to State Warning Center State Warning Center

  • WCATWC Issues Tsunami Warning Bulletin

WCATWC Issues Tsunami Warning Bulletin

  • OES Schedules Conference Call with California

OES Schedules Conference Call with California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) (CEPEC)

05:20:00 05:20:00

  • CISN Posts First ShakeMap From UC Berkeley

CISN Posts First ShakeMap From UC Berkeley

  • ShakeMap Downloaded to Federal, State and

ShakeMap Downloaded to Federal, State and County Agencies County Agencies

  • ShakeMap is the First

ShakeMap is the First “ “Image Image” ” of the Event

  • f the Event
  • How Big?

How Big?

  • How Bad?

How Bad?

  • Where?

Where?

05:32:00 05:32:00

  • USGS Issues Automated Aftershock Forecast

USGS Issues Automated Aftershock Forecast (90% Probability of M5 and Larger Aftershocks (90% Probability of M5 and Larger Aftershocks in Next 7 days) in Next 7 days)

  • 5% to 10% Probability of Larger Event

5% to 10% Probability of Larger Event

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SLIDE 5

USGS Aftershock Assessment USGS Aftershock Assessment

7 Day I nterval Calculated 20 Minutes After the Quake

Magnitude Probability Number

  • 5+

100 46 (33-59) 6+ 100 6 (1-10) 7+ 50 1 (0-2)

05:35:00 05:35:00

  • OES GIS Staff are Recalled to Run HAZUS Loss

OES GIS Staff are Recalled to Run HAZUS Loss Estimate Estimate

  • BART Imports ShakeMap into Risk Assessment

BART Imports ShakeMap into Risk Assessment Program (SERA) to Set Inspection Priorities Program (SERA) to Set Inspection Priorities

  • BART on Manual Operations Where Power

BART on Manual Operations Where Power Available Available

07:00:00 07:00:00

  • Initial HAZUS Damage Estimates Available

Initial HAZUS Damage Estimates Available

Damage to Damage to Bridges Bridges

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Area of Potential Ground Failure

San San San San San San San San San Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Probability of Bridge Damage 0.7 to 1 0.4 to 0.7 0.2 to 0.4 0.1 to 0.2 0.05 to 0.1 0.01 to 0.05 to 0.01

Fire Fire I gnitions I gnitions

  • 500 to 600

500 to 600 Fires in Region Fires in Region

  • 100 Fires in

100 Fires in San Francisco San Francisco

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa San San San San San San San San San Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Predicted Number

  • f Ignitions

10 or more 8 to 9 6 to 7 4 to 5 2 to 3 Less than 2

Utility Utility Disruption Disruption

  • .5 Million

.5 Million Household Household Without Power Without Power (2400, Day 1) (2400, Day 1)

  • Over 1 Million

Over 1 Million Households Households without water without water (2400, Day 1) (2400, Day 1)

miles

10 20 6,000 1,700 39,400 524,200 426,000 322,100 248,800 65,300 87,500 6,500 6,700 136,000 145,000 143,000 34,000 21,900

San San San San San San San San San Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito M onterey M onterey M onterey M onterey M onterey M onterey M onterey M onterey M onterey Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda San San San San San San San San San Francisco Francisco Francisco Francisco Francisco Francisco Francisco Francisco Francisco San San San San San San San San San M ateo M ateo M ateo M ateo M ateo M ateo M ateo M ateo M ateo Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Marin Marin Marin M arin M arin M arin M arin M arin M arin Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano San San San San San San San San San Joaquin Joaquin Joaquin Joaquin Joaquin Joaquin Joaquin Joaquin Joaquin

Affected Households 100,000 No Water No Power

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SLIDE 6

Daytime Daytime Casualties Casualties

  • 13,000 Injuries

13,000 Injuries Requiring Requiring Hospitalization Hospitalization

  • 3,400 Deaths

3,400 Deaths

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa San San San San San San San San San Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Fatality Density at 2 PM [per sq.mi.] Over 50 20 to 50 10 to 20 5 to 10 2 to 5 1 to 2 Less than 1

Hospital Hospital Performance Performance

OSHPD Survey Data OSHPD Survey Data 35% Region Hospitals are 35% Region Hospitals are SPC 1 SPC 1 Only 7/105 Peninsula Only 7/105 Peninsula Hospitals are SPC 5 Hospitals are SPC 5

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Area of Potential Ground Failure Area of Potential Shaking Damage

San San San San San San San San San Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Number of Beds Over 1,000 500 to 1,000 200 to 500 100 to 200 50 to 100 Less than 50

Displaced Displaced Households Households

200,000 to 200,000 to 300,000 300,000 Displaced Displaced Households Households

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa San San San San San San San San San Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Displaced Households [# per sq.mi.] Over 5,000 1,000 to 5,000 500 to 1,000 100 to 500 50 to 100 10 to 50 Less than 10

Shelter Shelter Demand Demand

60,000 to 60,000 to 120,000 120,000 Persons Persons Requiring Requiring Short Short-

  • term

term Shelter Shelter

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa San San San San San San San San San Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Shelter Needs [# per sq.mi.] 5,000 to 10,000 1,000 to 5,000 500 to 1,000 100 to 500 50 to 100 10 to 50 0 to 10

Debris Debris Generated Generated

25 to 40 25 to 40 Million Tons Million Tons

  • f Debris
  • f Debris

Generated Generated

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa San San San San San San San San San Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Debris Generated [x1,000 tons / sq.mi.] Over 500 100 to 500 50 to 100 10 to 50 5 to 10 1 to 5 Less than 1

Economic Economic I mpact I mpact

  • Over $120

Over $120 Billion of Billion of Building Losses Building Losses

  • Direct and

Direct and Indirect Losses Indirect Losses will Exceed will Exceed $150 Billion $150 Billion

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles miles

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo San Mateo Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Monterey Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Costa Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Marin Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Sonoma Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa Napa San San San San San San San San San Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Benito Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Alameda Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Clara Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Solano Loss Density [$M per sq.mi.] Over 250 50 to 250 10 to 50 5 to 10 1 to 5 0.2 to 1 Less than 0.2

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SLIDE 7

Lessons Learned Lessons Learned

  • Multipurpose Scenario Is Complex

Multipurpose Scenario Is Complex

  • Media Scenario is Global

Media Scenario is Global

  • Exercise Scenario is Detailed

Exercise Scenario is Detailed

  • Regional Scenario Required a Significant

Regional Scenario Required a Significant Commitment From Many Players Commitment From Many Players

  • Emergency Managers

Emergency Managers

  • Utilities and Lifelines

Utilities and Lifelines

  • Security is an Excuse to Not Play

Security is an Excuse to Not Play

  • HAZUS Support Critical

HAZUS Support Critical

For a Regional Exercise

  • Need to Localize Regional Scenario (3,000+

Need to Localize Regional Scenario (3,000+ Injects) Injects)

  • Be Able to Make a Major Commitment of Time

Be Able to Make a Major Commitment of Time and Resources (2 Years, Broad Participation and Resources (2 Years, Broad Participation From Bay Region Counties and $3 Million From Bay Region Counties and $3 Million

  • Need to Build Trust in Estimates to

Need to Build Trust in Estimates to “ “Play the Play the Scenario Scenario” ” Until There is Ground Truth Until There is Ground Truth

Scenario and HAZUS Scenario and HAZUS Estimates Estimates

  • For, Rapid Onset Events, We Have No Choice

For, Rapid Onset Events, We Have No Choice But But “ “Play the Scenario Play the Scenario” ”

  • Need to Build Inventory and Redundant

Need to Build Inventory and Redundant Operability Operability We need to Exercise the Way We Will Have to Play, Because We Will Play the Way We Exercise

  • Time History Critical to Scenario Effectiveness

Time History Critical to Scenario Effectiveness