Potential for physical vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Potential for physical vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding Molly Mitchell Karinna Nunez Alex Renaud And students from the Coastal Resource Management Clinic, VIMS Tidal and Storm surge flooding is influenced by Tidal cycles
And students from the Coastal Resource Management Clinic, VIMS
Literature Principal Physical Vulnerability Indicators Clark et al. 1998 Frazier et al. 2010 Gornitz et al 1994 Kleinosky et al. 2006 McLaughlin et al. 2010 Torreson et al. 2008 Balica et al. 2012 Thieler and Hammar-Klose 1999 Wu et al. 2002 This Study Elevation Geology Geomorphology Tidal Range Wave Height/Characteristics Storm Freq/Probability Coastal slope SLOSH flood model Distance from Shore Storm Intensity Relative SLR/Subsidence Shoreline erosion/accretion Storm Surge Rivers Present/Discharge FIRM Map Flood Exposure Wetland Presence Coastline Length Fetch Developed Land
Our index of physical vulnerability was developed using high resolution LIDAR data to create a digital relief map of the coastal Chesapeake Bay region in ArcGIS. Two measures:
(what percentage of the tract is low elevation)
Map by Julie Herman, VIMS
Land cover below 10 ft in elevation (natural areas and wetlands provide buffers to storm events decreasing vulnerability). In order to analyze land cover across the region, Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) data was downloaded from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Services Center. For this study, 2010 C-CAP data for Virginia and Maryland was used. Data was reclassified into 4 different land cover types: Agriculture, Developed Areas, Natural Nontidal Areas, and Wetlands
Fetch component was calculated using the Virginia Exposure Model generated by the Coastal Resources Management – VIMS.
directions for points every 50 to 100m along the tidal shoreline.
was generated to calculate the ratio of shoreline with high exposure over the total shoreline per census tract.
Long fetch Short fetch
Layer created by Shoreline Studies Program, VIMS
1 2 3 4 5 10 15 20 4ft tide range storm
1 2 3 4 5 10 15 20 2ft tide range storm
Big tide range Small tide range
Height above normal high tide Height above normal high tide
High Low
elevations below 10 ft volume to surface area ratios Land cover below 10 ft Fetch Tide Range
Past history may give some indication of the vulnerability of an area to future storm events. However, storm tracks change with changing ocean dynamics, making it difficult to predict the relationship between past and future storm history.
Areas of high physical vulnerability