Broadband Infrastructure in Broadband Infrastructure in North Asia - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Broadband Infrastructure in Broadband Infrastructure in North Asia and Central Asia North Asia and Central Asia Markets, Infrastructure, and Policy Options for Markets, Infrastructure, and Policy Options for Enhancing Cross ‐ ‐ Border Connectivity Border Connectivity Enhancing Cross Michael Ruddy Director of International Research Terabit Consulting www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Part 1: Background and Methodology Part 1: Background and Methodology www.t www.tera rabitconsulting.com www.t www.tera rabitconsulting.com

Project Scope Project Scope Between June and November 2013, Terabit Consulting performed a detailed analysis of broadband infrastructure and markets in 7 strategic markets in No. & Central Asia: – Azerbaijan – Kazakhstan – Kyrgyz Rep. – Russian Fed. – Tajikistan – Turkmenistan – Uzbekistan www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Scope (cont’ ’d.) d.) Scope (cont • The data and analysis for each country included:  Telecommunications market overview and analysis of competitiveness  Regulation and government intervention  Fixed ‐ line telephony market  Mobile telephony market  Internet and broadband market  Consumer broadband pricing  Evaluation of domestic network connectivity  International Internet bandwidth  International capacity pricing  Historical and forecasted total international bandwidth  Evaluation of international network connectivity including terrestrial fiber, undersea fiber, and satellite  Evaluation of trans ‐ border network development and identification of missing links  Identification of key highway and rail projects www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Sources of Data Sources of Data • Terabit Consulting has completed dozens of demand studies for submarine and terrestrial fiber networks worldwide – Constant contact with operators, ISPs, and other stakeholders • Terabit Consulting’s published reports include: – The Undersea Cable Report (1,500+ pages) – International Telecommunications Infrastructure Analysis (1,000+ pages) • Terabit Consulting’s data and intelligence covers infrastructure, demand, traffic flows, pricing, and market share www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Part 2: State of North and Central Asia Part 2: State of North and Central Asia Bandwidth and Broadband Markets Bandwidth and Broadband Markets www.t www.tera rabitconsulting.com www.t www.tera rabitconsulting.com

Overview of Broadband Status Overview of Broadband Status Annual 1 Mbps GDP per Int’l. Fixed and Competitive ‐ Broadband Capita, YE Band ‐ Int’l. Domestic Mobile IP Transit ness of Subscription + 2012 width per Connect ‐ Connect ‐ Broadband Price Telecom Installation as % (PPP, Capita ivity ivity Infra ‐ Market of Nominal GDP USD) (Kbps) structure per Capita Reasonably Somewhat Relatively Azerbaijan $10,800 22.4 Moderate Adequate Reasonable Priced Competitive Strong Relatively Reasonably Somewhat Relatively Kazakhstan $14,000 16.5 Moderate Reasonable Strong Priced Competitive Strong Kyrgyz Very Somewhat $2,400 0.893 Weak Limited Limited Very Expensive Republic Expensive Competitive Russian Relatively Extremely $20,900 17.4 Moderate Inexpensive Competitive Strong Federation Strong Affordable Very Somewhat Tajikistan $2,300 0.313 Weak Limited Very Limited Very Expensive Expensive Competitive Turkmenista Very Not $9,600 0.125 Weak Limited Very Limited Very Expensive n Expensive Competitive Very Somewhat Uzbekistan $3,500 0.259 Weak Limited Limited Very Expensive Expensive Competitive www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

International Internet Bandwidth, YE12 International Internet Bandwidth, YE12 Russian Federation: 2.5 Tbps Kazakhstan: 275 Gbps Azerbaijan: 205 Gbps Uzbekistan: 7.8 Gbps Turkmenistan: >1 Gbps Kyrgyz Republic: 5 Gbps Tajikistan: 2.5 Gbps www.t www.tera rabitconsulting.com www.t www.tera rabitconsulting.com

Int’ ’l. Internet Bandwidth per Capita l. Internet Bandwidth per Capita (Kbps) Int (Kbps) Difference between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan: 179x 1 Kbps per Capita or Less: SERIOUS OBSTACLE TO DEVELOPMENT www.t www.tera rabitconsulting.com www.t www.tera rabitconsulting.com

International Fiber Connectivity International Fiber Connectivity • The Study identified and analyzed 30 trans ‐ border fiber optic links in the region – Across borders within the region and at the edge of the region (e.g. to China, Iran, and Afghanistan) • Some transborder links form segments of multinational networks – Trans Asia ‐ Europe (TAE) – Proprietary limited ‐ participation networks such as • Transit Europe Asia (Rostelecom), TTK Eurasia Highway • Europe ‐ Kazakhstan ‐ Asia • Europe ‐ Russia ‐ Mongolia ‐ China (via Mongolia Railway) – Europe ‐ Persia Express Gateway (EPEG) • Only one border without connectivity – Armenia ‐ Azerbaijan www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

International Bandwidth Infrastructure International Bandwidth Infrastructure AZERBAIJAN, RUSSIA, KAZAKHSTAN: INTERNATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE SUFFICIENT BUT NOT OPTIMAL KYRGYZ REPUBLIC, TAJIKISTAN, TURKMENISTAN, UZBEKISTAN: INTERNATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE IN CRITICAL NEED OF EXPANSION www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Russian Federation: Int Int’ ’l. Infrastructure l. Infrastructure Russian Federation: • 7 international submarine fiber optic cables – reach is limited to adjoining regions (Scandinavia, Black Sea/Eastern Mediterranean, Sea of Japan/East Sea) • Europe ‐ Asia transit networks operated by Rostelecom, VimpelCom, and TTK; new transit networks recently activated by MTS and MegaFon – ‘Big Four’ + TTK = 750,000+ route km of fiber • Trans ‐ border links within the study region: Azerbaijan/EPEG (4), Kazakhstan (at least 3 crossings, multiple interconnections) www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Kazakhstan: Int Int’ ’l. Infrastructure l. Infrastructure Kazakhstan: • TAE (to China, Kyrgyz Republic, Uzbekistan) • Kazakhstan benefits from at least 10 trans ‐ border fiber crossings within the study region • Kazakhtelecom international connectivity = 290 Gbps as of mid ‐ 2013: – Russian Federation: Rostelecom, VimpelCom, MegaFon, TTK – Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyztelecom, ElCat, Saima Telecom – China: China Telecom, China TieTong, China Unicom – Turkmenistan: Turkmentelecom – Uzbekistan: Uzbektelecom • Kazsat ‐ 2 (2011), Kazsat ‐ 3 (2015) www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Azerbaijan: Int Int’ ’l. Infrastructure l. Infrastructure Azerbaijan: • TAE (to China, Kyrgyz Republic, Uzbekistan) • Russian links to Rostelecom, MegaFon, TTK • Link to Turkey via Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic • TIC Iran link forms primary connection to Nakhchivan • EPEG: Delta Telecom = transit operator • Instrumental in spearheading TASIM initiative – Will include Trans Caspian Link • AzerSat ‐ 1 (launched February 2013), LEO satellite (2015), 2 nd telecom satellite (2016) www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Uzbekistan: Int Int’ ’l. Infrastructure l. Infrastructure Uzbekistan: • TAE (to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan) • Additional crossings to Kazakhstan (2), Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan • Afghanistan (used as part of Rostelecom’s ‘Europe ‐ Afghanistan’ network) • Uzbekistan is ‘doubly landlocked’ – making its continued reliance on trans ‐ border links impractical – Places country at mercy of at least two transit operators • IP Transit: $1,510 in 2010; $347 in mid ‐ 2013 www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Kyrgyz Republic: Int Int’ ’l. Infrastructure l. Infrastructure Kyrgyz Republic: • TAE (loop to Kazakhstan completed in 2000; redundant segment added in 2007) • Kyrgyztelecom links to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan • Kyrgyztelecom link to China intended to reduce reliance on Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan transit, but China Telecom reported interconnection issues • ISP ELCat aggressively implementing fiber to China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Tajikistan & Turkmenistan: Int Int’ ’l. Links l. Links Tajikistan & Turkmenistan: • Tajikistan: Trans ‐ border links to Kyrgyz Republic, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, China (unconfirmed) • Turkmenistan: TAE to Iran and Uzbekistan, links to Kazakhstan and Afghanistan – restrained network development due to ISP license revocations in 2000, shutdown of MTS in 2010 (only competitor to Turkmentelecom/Altyn Asyr/ Turkemenistan Online) www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com

Part 3: Why a Coherent, Part 3: Why a Coherent, Open ‐ ‐ Access, Cost Access, Cost ‐ ‐ Effective Effective Open Pan ‐ ‐ Asian Fiber Infrastructure Asian Fiber Infrastructure Pan Would Benefit the Region Would Benefit the Region www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com www.tera www.t rabitconsulting.com