Future Direction of LCS study 2008 AIM Training Workshop, T - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Future Direction of LCS study

2008 AIM Training Workshop, T k b O t 27 2008 Tsukuba, Oct 27, 2008

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 (S-3)

[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] [FY2004 2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE]

Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan d b d

Green buildings Self-sustained city Decentralized services Eco awareness Effective communication Dematerialization Next generation vehicles Efficient transportation system Advanced logistics

Techno-Socio Innovation study Advisory board： advice to project

Decentralized services Dematerialization Advanced logistics

BaU scenario

E i h

Urban structure IT-society

Development of socio- economic scenarios ion

Transportation system

Reduction Target study

BaU scenario

EE improvement New energy Energy saving Structure change Life-style h

• Tech. innovation

economic scenarios, evaluating counter- measures with social- economic-technology models GHG emissi

• 1

1 3 5 Valid Equity Effective

990 000 020 050 010 Intervention scenario

change

GHG reduction target

（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level） Evaluate feasibility of GHG reduction target

Integration Team

Suitable

19 20 20 20 20 Middle-term Target year Loge-term Target year

5 teams 60 Researchers

2

60 Researchers

Propose options of long-term global warming policy

Asian Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 (S-6)

[FY2009-2013, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] [FY2009 2013, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE]

S-6-2 Diversity S-6-4 Material Flow S-6-1 Diversity Material Flow Scenario Development S-6-3 Policy Framework S-6-5 Transportation Sector Framework Sector

Q Q tit ti A l i

3

Qualitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis

What are the Asian low carbon societies? What are the Asian low carbon societies?

B th iddl f thi t (2050) i ti

By the middle of this century (2050), societies

which satisfy the followings;

• Accepting drastically transfiguring Asian society and

Accepting drastically transfiguring Asian society and economy,

• conforming each country’s reduction target that

consists with the global low carbon target consists with the global low carbon target,

• under the global, national and regional constraints on

fossil fuel and renewal energy resources, and land gy resource,

• developing various LCS policies based on each

country characteristic country characteristic,

• also utilizing effectively the co-benefits of LCS

policies and neighboring policies.

What are the peculiar and diverse characteristics of the target regions (country)?

E i d l ti f b d l

1.

Expansion and resolution of urban and rural disparity.

2

Development and specialization of industrial

2.

Development and specialization of industrial structure.

3

Deployment of urban and inter-urban traffic

3.

Deployment of urban and inter urban traffic systems.

4.

Regional climate characteristics, building and g , g social infrastructure characteristics.

5.

Potentials of renewable energy resources, and d l t f th i tili i f iliti developments of their utilizing facilities.

6.

LULC and consequent GHG emissions.

Five domestic factors and the global trade environment that decide the realization of environment that decide the realization of Asian low carbon societies

(1)E d ti ti f iliti i t d (1)Energy production, consumption facilities, equipment, and technology: Energy supply facilities, energy-saving technology, and their production system (2)Social infrastructure: Traffic infrastructure/system for LCS (2)Social infrastructure: Traffic infrastructure/system for LCS (3)Human capital: Human resource for developing, managing, and maintaining low carbon societies. Proxy index by number of technocrats, engineers and people's potential to accept related technocrats, engineers and people s potential to accept related innovation. (4)Institution: Creation and existence of efficient market systems for energy and technology. Decentralized governance and privatization gy gy g p

• f related organization, international and domestic funding system,

carbon-emission tax, emissions trading, etc. (5)Social capital on reliability, custom, and norm: Social environmental efficiency of individual level community level and commercial efficiency of individual level, community level and commercial

• markets. Energy efficient lifestyle and low material type lifestyle.

Development, maintenance and application

• f multi-layered modeling system (1)

( ) C (1) Climate change+ long-term optimized capital investment model, AIM/Impact policy, now in operational stage, world-wide and ranging from 2000 to 2300. world wide and ranging from 2000 to 2300. (2) The world energy, economy, and GHG emission model. Multi-regional, multi-sectional CGE model, world-wide and ranging from 2000 to 2300. By the end of 2008, becomes operational. Using for IPCC 5AR. Enhancement of a biomass production module, a land Enhancement of a biomass production module, a land use module, and an energy resource modules, etc. (3) AIM/enduse[global], world-wide and ranging from 2000 to 2050. To the operation stage within this year. Econometrics modules for energy-service, bottom-up engineering type modules for regional GHG emissions. engineering type modules for regional GHG emissions.

AIM/Impact[Policy]

• Global and Long-term climate-economic-energy integrated model

multi-regions (< 10), year 2000 to year 2200

• Dynamic global model consisted with;

D i i CGE d l i i i i l ili Dynamic economic CGE module maximizing social utility + Simplified climate module (global surface energy balance model) + Carbon cycle module with feedback mechanism Si lifi d h i l ti d l + Simplified chemical reaction module + Climate impact module Gases : CO CH N O BC SO and F gases

• Gases : CO2, CH4, N2O, BC, SO2, and F gases
• Now refining: 1)to multi-regional, 2) inclusion of

g g climate feedback mechanism, 3) systematic and

• rganized methodology of impact assessment.

Calibration 3：ＣＯ

Including climate feedbacks

Calibration 3：ＣＯ２ concentration

C4MIP (Friedlingstein et al.,2997), Plattner et al.(2007), WG1-7(2007) C4MIP (Friedlingstein et al.,2007), Plattner et al.(2007), WG1-7(2007)

Carbon Cycle model

Vegetation carbon model(M1.2)

Oceanic carbon model(M1 3)

Atmospheric carbon balance model(M1.1)

Vegetation FB coefficient

Productivity and heterogeneous respiration: HRBM/CTBM/FBM/4box biosphere (Meyer et al. 1999)

Calibration１：Vegetation carbon absorption

Historical emissions GHG

Vegetation absorption Chemistry model （non‐CO2,M2.1) Oceanic carbon model(M1.3)

Ocean FB coefficient

HILDA (Joos et al., 1996)

Calibration 2： Oceanic carbon absorption

NO2,CO,NMVOC SO2, Halocarbon

Joos et al (2001) Calibration 4：Atmospheric non‐CO２

Oceanic absorption Decay coefficients Chemistry model （TOZ,OH)(M2.2) H2O

Joos et al. (2001), Eickhout et al.(2004) p

concentration

Historical concentration

GHG concentration ‐ RF model(M3.1)

H4 concentration→S Radiative forcing in year 2000（IPCC WG1)

Calibration 5：Radiative Forcing

Joos et al. (2001), Eickhout et al.(2004)

Calibration 5

Historical radiative forcing VOL, SOL, LAN Radiative Forcing ＳＯ２emission→DSU,ISU、 CFC and HC emission→ＳＯＺ CO emission→OC,BC ＡＦ coefficient

GHG: greenhouse gases

CH

Emissions of RF related chemicals‐RF model （DSU,ISU,OC,BCS, OZ,SH2O)(M3.2)

Historical global temperature change

Global temperature model （IRF/UPDM)(M4)

Climate sensitivity

GHG: greenhouse gases DSU: direct effect of tropospheric sulfates ISU: indirect effect of tropospheric sulfates VOL: volcanic stratospheric aerosols SOL: solar irradiance BCA: black carbon TOZ: tropospheric ozone SOZ: stratospheric ozone IRF: impulse response function UPDM: upwell-diffusion model

Global temperature

Calibration ６：Global

U up e d us o

• de

AF coefficient: Aerosol forcing coefficient FB:feedback LAN: landuse

Calibration ６：Global temperature change

Effects of 50% GHG emission reduction in year 2050 on long-term temperature change

4.0

l

BaU (Case 1）

long term temperature change

3.0

re-industria

Climate sensitivity: 4.5℃ (Case 5） ％ （ )

2.0

ease from pr a （℃）

50％ reduction （Case 2) 50％ reduction at 2050, and continue reduction thereafter (Case 3) Climate sensitivity 2℃ （Case 4)

1.0

rature incre er

y （ )

Temperature change (1) Case 1 BaU, climate sensitivity 3℃

5.7

Case 2 50% reduction of 1990 emission after

2 8

Case

0.0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year Temper

year 2050, climate sensitivity 3℃

2.8

Case 3 Continuation of case 2's emission reduction speed till year 2100, keep 25%

• f year 1990 emission after then

2.0

Case 4 Same as case 2 except climate sensitivity is 2℃

1.9

C 5 S 2 t li t

Year

Case 5 Same as case 2 except climate sensitivity is 4.5℃

4.2

（１）Temperature increase in year 2200 above pre-industrial period （２）Using same socio-economic assumptions as SRES B2. Compliance

with Kyoto target in year 2010 is assumed, and reduction will start after year 2010 Controlled gases are those denoted in start after year 2010. Controlled gases are those denoted in Kyoto Protocol.

Countries' reduction rates for world 50% emission reduction in year 2050 in year 2050

Equal emission intensity Equal velocity of intensity reduction emission reduction ratio reduction ratio reduction ratio Country/Region Equal per capita emission reduction ratio reduction ratio reduction ratio Mil.tC/y based on 1990 based on 1990 based on 1990 United States 207 89% 49% ( 2%～63% ) 85% ( 75%～88% ) Canada 22 87% 61% ( 33%～65% ) 87% ( 77%～89% ) Japan 53 85% 35% ( -23%～44% ) 91% ( 87%～93% ) Australia 14 89% 66% ( 44%～73% ) 80% ( 65%～83% ) Australia 14 89% 66% ( 44%～73% ) 80% ( 65%～83% ) New Zealand 3 89% 70% ( 51%～75% ) 83% ( 70%～87% ) Western Europe 343 74% 50% ( 37%～62% ) 88% ( 87%～92% ) Eastern Europe 49 87% 83% ( 75%～92% ) 72% ( 64%～82% ) Russia 55 94% 91% ( 75%～94% ) 69% ( 60%～77% ) Other CIS 72 89% 90% ( 87%～93% ) 59% ( 49%～67% ) Other CIS 72 89% 90% ( 87%～93% ) 59% ( 49%～67% ) South Korea 22 75% 36% ( -104%～75% ) 68% ( 62%～78% ) China 728 34% 29% ( -69%～46% )

• 1% ( -46%～12% )

India 852

• 97%

48% ( -168%～66% )

• 36% ( -57%～2% )

Other Asia 644

• 45%

8% ( -27%～49% )

• 8% ( -15%～22% )

Mexico 68 52% 19% ( -13%～59% ) 57% ( 44%～60% ) Mexico 68 52% 19% ( -13%～59% ) 57% ( 44%～60% ) Brazil 130 37% 5% ( -23%～80% ) 40% ( 33%～49% ) Other Latin America 197 29% 12% ( -12%～71% ) 40% ( 38%～44% ) Middle East 232 35% 34% ( 20%～84% ) 26% ( 22%～48% ) Africa 1028

• 68%

51% ( 17%～92% )

• 18% ( -49%～37% )

World 4719 50% 50% ( 50%～50% ) 50% ( 50%～50% ) World 4719 50% 50% ( 50%～50% ) 50% ( 50%～50% ) Annex B 705 87% 63% ( 37%～67% ) 82% ( 78%～84% ) Non-annex B 4014

• 2%

35% ( 29%～66% ) 12% ( 9%～16% ) Projections of GDP in 2050. We used 6 SRES scenarios of AIM (IPCC, 2001), A2r scenario (Grubler et al 2006) Wilson and Purushothaman (2003) and Poncet (2006) (Grubler et al., 2006), Wilson and Purushothaman (2003), and Poncet (2006).

Relation of reduction rates between different sharing h schemes

East Europe Russia Other CIS

80% 100% emission

Canada Australia New Zealand as u ope Af i Annex B

60% 80% th equal e sity

USA Japan West Europe Korea China India Middle East Africa World Non Annex B

40% n rate wit intens

Other Asia Mexico Brazil Other LA

0% 20% Reduction

• 100% -80%
• 60%
• 40%
• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Reduction rate with equal per capita emission R

Development, maintenance and application

• f multi-layered modeling system (2)

(4) El t d l f j ti i C t l l i f (4) Element models for projecting energy services. Country level, ranging from 2000 to 2050.

• AIM/endues[country]
• Population/Household dynamics model (PHM): How to describe each

Population/Household dynamics model (PHM): How to describe each country’s decrease of birthrates, internal migrations, propagations of individualism?

• House and building dynamics model (BDM): description of transition and

renovation dynamics toward modern and highly insulated buildings renovation dynamics toward modern and highly insulated buildings.

• Traffic demand model (TDM): passenger and freight transports. Can the

Asian concentrated city structure survive?

• Material stocks and flow model (MSFM): Are the low material societies

Material stocks and flow model (MSFM): Are the low material societies necessary for LCS? Interface with the Material team.

• Energy supply model (ESM): Scenarios of biomass production, electric

power infrastructure development, and nuclear power put? H h ld d ti d lif t l d l (HPLM) T iti f h h ld

• Household production and lifestyle model (HPLM): Transition of household

consumption, oriental lifestyle and so on.

• Atmospheric environmental model (AIM/enduse[air]): Calculation of co-

benefits caused by low carbon policies. benefits caused by low carbon policies.

Development, maintenance and application

• f multi-layered modeling system (3)

( ) O CG (5) One country multi-sectional CGE model, AIM/CGE[country]: An integration platform with which the above-mentioned element models are properly linked the above mentioned element models are properly linked according to an analytical object. Country level, ranging from 2000 to 2050. (6) Extended snapshot tool (ExSS): An tool to estimate a social accounting matrix, an energy balance table, a GHG emission table of the target year. Interactive and GHG emission table of the target year. Interactive and simple evaluation of the effects of low carbon policies. Multi-regional, static model. (7) Back-casting model (BCM): A model for designing roadmaps toward low carbon societies. Integration tool. One regional, dynamic model. One regional, dynamic model.

Linkage among ESS, BCM, and Element models

Element models

• Macro-economy

model

Supply transient and dynamic parameters based on more physically realistic mechanisms l i l S l t t

Backcasting Model (BCM)

Design roadmaps toward future

model

• Population and

household model

• Building model
• Passenger

Supply social, physical parameters based on more physically Supply target vision quantitatively

Extended Snapshot Tool (ESS)

Check and analyze quantitative consistency of

visions

Passenger transportation model

• Freight

transportation

p y y realistic mechanisms Check and verify the future visions and transient paths from the points of economic

y f future societies

Sequential CGE transportat on model

• Energy supply

model

• Material stock

Supply values of parameters based on more from the points of economic reality

q type model such

as AIM/ material

dynamics model

• Energy enduse

models

Supply values of parameters based on more physically realistic mechanisms

We have completed most of element models, ESS and the 1st version of BCM. Now preparing the operational version of BCM and also material stock model. Aft l ti th ill bl th t I t t d M d l f After completing them, we will assemble them to one Integrated Model for Sustainable Society.

Solid, realistic and reliable applications to whole Asian area and various regions

(1)Target regions of the following three scales: (1)Target regions of the following three scales: 1） Whole world (23 regions. Asia is divided into Japan, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, other Southeast Asia, and other South Asia (need repartition) South Asia. (need repartition). 2） Country level: Japan, China, and India. In addition, ... 3） Domestic regional level (2)Two target periods: (2)Two target periods: 1） 2005 - 2030 (middle term) 2） 2005 - 2050 (long term) (3)T t d i i ti iti (3)Target gases and emission activities Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and F gas, etc. Energy production, energy consumption, agriculture, forestry, waste, d l d h and land use change. (4)Closer joint study with domestic institutes that are well informed of regional peculiarity.

What are other important problems related with LCS issue? 1) Various problems related to MDG, such as poverty eradication, education, health p y , , improvement, and diffusion of water supply and sanitary services supply and sanitary services. 2) Quantification of ancillary benefits caused by LCS policies, such as acceleration of electrification rate and regional g atmospheric environment.

Asian Low Carbon Societies Study Asian Low-Carbon Societies Study

(1)In order to realize Asian Low Carbon Societies (1)In order to realize Asian Low Carbon Societies, (2)We focus on some domestic and international factors which control the realization of LCS, (3)describe the process of development accumulation and deepening (3)describe the process of development, accumulation, and deepening

• f these factors with multi-layered, spatial, and integrated

quantification tools, (4)applying the tools to whole Asian area and various regions in the (4)applying the tools to whole Asian area and various regions in the Asia. (5)Taking account of regional distinctive diversified characteristics of the region, appropriately, g , pp p y, (6)and also cooperated with the policy options for other important problems in the Asian region in the 21st first half of the century, (7)We design positive Asian low carbon societies in each country with ( ) g p y a back-casting methodology, and also road maps toward the societies.

Let’s develop LCS scenarios through sustainable d l t t th ! development together!

AIM is model, AIM is team, AIM is human network.