Economics 2 Professor Christina Romer Spring 2019 Professor David Romer LECTURE 11 LABOR AND WAGES February 28, 2019 I. O VERVIEW A. The market for labor B. Why labor market analysis is important II. L ABOR D EMAND A. Marginal revenue product of labor B. Profit maximization C. Labor demand curve III. L ABOR S UPPLY AND E QUILIBRIUM IN THE L ABOR M ARKET A. Utility maximization B. Substitution and income effects of a wage increase C. Labor supply curve D. Labor market equilibrium IV. E XAMPLES OF L ABOR M ARKET A NALYSIS A. Decline in demand for the product workers produce B. An increase in capital or technological progress C. A union negotiates a wage above the equilibrium level V. T HE E FFECTS OF I NCREASED I MMIGRATION A. Theoretical impact of increased immigration B. Empirical evidence (Paper by David Card on the Mariel Boatlift)
Economics 2 Christina Romer Spring 2019 David Romer L ECTURE 11 Labor and Wages February 28, 2019
Announcements • Journal article reading for next time: • Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, “Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–1998.”
I. O VERVIEW
Market for Labor
We can talk about the labor market at different levels: • Market for labor for a particular occupation or industry (plumbers, computer programmers, construction workers). • Market for workers with particular demographic characteristics (teenagers, older men, married women). • Market for workers with particular skills (high- skilled and low-skilled).
The source of supply and demand are reversed from typical markets. • The demand curve for labor comes from profit maximization on the part of firms. • The supply curve for labor comes from utility maximization on the part of households.
Why is the market for labor important? • Wages and employment are fundamental in peoples’ lives. • Labor market analysis can help us to understand how developments will affect wages and employment. • It can also help explain rising inequality.
II. L ABOR D EMAND
Labor Demand Comes from Profit Maximization • What factors affect a firm’s demand for labor?
Marginal Revenue Product of Labor (MRP L ) • The extra revenue generated by one more worker. • It is composed of two pieces: • Marginal product of labor (MP L ): The extra output produced by one more worker. • Marginal revenue (MR): The extra revenue from selling one more unit. • MRP L = MP L • MR
The Special Case of Perfect Competition: • For competitive firms: MR = P. • So for competitive firms: MRP L = MP L • P. • We call MP L • P the value of the marginal product of labor (VMP L ).
MRP L Declines as L Increases • Recall: MRP L = MP L • MR. • MP L declines because of diminishing returns. • MR is either constant (for a competitive firm) or declining (for an imperfectly competitive firm). • So MRP L is declining.
MRP L for a Particular Firm mrp L l
Profit Maximization Implies: • Firms want to hire labor up to the point where: MRP L = W. • At each wage, a firm wants to hire whatever quantity of labor has a MRP L equal to that wage.
Labor Demand Curve for an Individual Firm W l
Labor Demand Curves Individual Firm Market W W l L
III. L ABOR S UPPLY AND E QUILIBRIUM IN THE L ABOR M ARKET
Labor supply behavior comes from utility maximization on the part of households • Households not only like goods and services, they like leisure (time at home). • The MU Leisure declines as the quantity of leisure increases. • P Leisure is the wage. • Think of a household choosing between leisure and everything else.
Condition for Utility Maximization MU Leisure MU Everything Else = P Leisure P Everything Else
Effect of an Increase in the Wage MU Leisure MU Everything Else < P Leisure P Everything Else • Substitution Effect: When the wage rises, the consumer wants to substitute away from leisure (so work more). • Income Effect: When the wage rises, the consumer is richer and wants more leisure (so work less). • Which effect dominates is an empirical matter.
Labor Supply Curves Individual Household Market W W l L
Equilibrium in the Labor Market Market for Construction Workers W L
IV. E XAMPLES OF L ABOR M ARKET A NALYSIS
Example 1: Decrease in the Demand for the Product • Consider the market for construction workers. • The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008 led to a large decline in the demand for construction services • What would you expect this to do to the employment and wages of construction workers?
Effect of a Decrease in Demand for the Product Market for Construction Services P S 1 P 1 D 1 Q 1 Q
Example 1: Decrease in the Demand for the Product (continued) • The fall in the price of the output lowers the MRP L at each level of employment. • The labor demand curve shifts back. • Wages and employment of construction workers both fall.
Effect of a Decrease in Demand for the Product Market for Construction Workers W S 1 W 1 D 1 L 1 L
Employment of Workers Paid Hourly Rates in Construction 6500 6000 Thousands of Persons 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Example 2: Increase in Machines or Technological Progress • Consider the market for high-skilled workers. • Computer technology spread rapidly across many industries in the late 1980s and 1990s. • What would you expect this to do to the employment and wages of high-skilled workers whose jobs use computers (such as architects, engineers, and professors)?
Example 2: Increase in Machines or Technological Progress (continued) • The addition of machines or technological progress (or, often, both together) will increase the MP L . • In most circumstances, this will increase the MRP L . • This implies that the labor demand curve shifts out. • Wages and employment of workers using the machines will rise.
Effect of an Increase in Capital (Computers) Market for High-Skilled Workers W S 1 W 1 D 1 L 1 L
Real Wages of Full-Time Male Workers by Educational Level Source: David Autor, “Skills, Education, and the Rise of Earnings Inequality among the “Other 99 Percent”.
Example 2: Increase in Machines or Technological Progress (continued) • A possible complication involves the price of the output. • Increased labor productivity will shift out the supply curve for the product and reduce its price. • If the fall in the price is large, the increase in labor productivity could conceivably reduce MRP L . • This is not the normal outcome. Over history, capital accumulation and technological progress has been good for workers’ wages.
Source: Lindert and Williamson, “English Workers' Living Standards during the Industrial Revolution: A New Look.”
Example 3: A Union Negotiates a Wage above the Equilibrium Level • Consider the market for autoworkers. • Suppose that the autoworkers union negotiates a wage that is above the equilibrium level in this industry. • What would you expect this to do to the employment and wages of autoworkers?
Effect of a Negotiated Wage Market for Autoworkers W S 1 W 1 D 1 L 1 L
Example 3: A Union Negotiates a Wage about the Equilibrium Level (continued) • The negotiated wage is like a price floor. • It will raise the wage of workers who remain employed. • But, profit-maximizing firms won’t pay workers more than the MRP L of the last worker hired. Instead, they will cut back employment to L D1 . • We would expect increased unemployment among autoworkers.
V. E FFECTS OF I NCREASED I MMIGRATION
Example 4: Increased Immigration Raises the Supply of Low-Skilled Workers • Suppose that immigration of low-skilled workers increases. • What would you expect this to do to the wages and employment of low-skilled workers?
Effect of Increased Immigration Market for Low-Skilled Workers W S 1 W 1 D 1 L 1 L
Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Immigration • Problems with previous studies:
Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Immigration • David Card paper uses a natural experiment:
Card Paper on the Effects of the Mariel Boatlift Source: David Card, “The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market”
Card Paper on the Effects of the Mariel Boatlift Source: David Card, “The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market”
Card’s Explanation for Why Wages Didn’t Fall
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