Cape T
- wn Wate r
Outlook 2018
Upda te d 20 July 2018 De pa rtme nt o f Wa te r a nd Sa nita tio n City o f Ca pe T
- wn
Cape T own Wate r Outlook 2018 Upda te d 20 July 2018 De pa rtme - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Cape T own Wate r Outlook 2018 Upda te d 20 July 2018 De pa rtme nt o f Wa te r a nd Sa nita tio n City o f Ca pe T o wn Ove r vie w 2018 ra infa ll to da te a nd b a la nc e o f se a so n fo re c a st I mpa c t o n da ms a
(a s a t 10 July 2018)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110%
100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 900 000 1 000 000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2017 2016 2015 46.5% 31.0% 55.4% 84.1% 2018 2014 38.4% 60.3% 71% 97%
Hydr
Star t 1 Nov
Da m le ve ls ~29% tha n in 2017 CT L 2
CT L 3 CT L 4 CT L 4B CT L 5 CT L 6 CT L 6B DWS 20% DWS 45/ 60%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
01-JAN-18 01-FEB-18 01-MAR-18 01-APR-18 01-MAY-18 01-JUN-18 01-JUL-18 01-AUG-18 01-SEP-18 01-OCT-18 01-NOV-18 01-DEC-18 01-JAN-19 01-FEB-19 01-MAR-19 01-APR-19 01-MAY-19 01-JUN-19 01-JUL-19 01-AUG-19 01-SEP-19 01-OCT-19
2017 rainfall 50% of 2017 rainfall Average rainfall Wet winter
2017 ra infall 50% of 2017 ra infall L
Ac tual dam le ve ls We t winte r 31 Oc t e nd of hydr
Dr awdown will var y de pe nding on r e str ic tion le ve l impose d by DWS Pr
T OWN r e str ic tion le ve ls will de pe nd on r e str ic tions pr e vailing in the WCWSS
he Da y Ze ro mo nito rpro vide d fo r da m le ve ls b e lo w 40%, b a se d o n ra infa ll simila r to 2017.
n lig ht o f impro ve d da m le ve ls, the City is e xplo ring
inc r e me ntal r e duc tion of r e str ic tions to pro vide re lie f to c o nsume rs while no t
c o mpro mising wa te rse c urity.
DE MAND SIDE
De mand r e duc tion is saving >400 Ml/ day
F e b 2017 = 900 Ml/ da y July 2018 = 500 Ml/ da y
DE MAND SIDE
DE MAND SIDE
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 08-Oct 22-Oct 05-Nov 19-Nov 03-Dec 17-Dec 31-Dec 14-Jan 28-Jan 11-Feb 25-Feb 11-Mar 25-Mar 08-Apr 22-Apr 06-May 20-May 03-Jun 17-Jun WMD "no water" notifications Number of contravention actions No Water WMD notifications Weekly Contravention actions Cumulative Contravention actions
D a s a t 6 July 2018.
D
D
D
e a k re pa ir
he b re a kdo wn o f pre ssure ma na g e me nt is a s fo llo ws:
(inc lude s a ll ne w zo ne s c urre ntly b e ing de sig ne d a nd c o nstruc te d): 6 200km (58,6%)
whe re use >20kl/ mth pe r ho use ho ld;
ro m 1 Ja n 2018, this c ha ng e d to insta lla tio ns a t ho use ho lds using >10.5kl/ mth;
4.8kl/ mth pe r ho use ho ld
me a ns tha t the ma jo rity o f c a lls lo g g e d a re due to unde te c te d le a ks a nd ho use ho lds de ple ting the da ily a llo c a tio n a nd a re no t due to insta lla tio n o r me te r issue s;
‐ 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Buffalo City Nelson Mandela Bay Mangaung Ekurhuleni Metro City Of Johannesburg City Of Tshwane eThekwini Cape Town (All metros)
DE MAND SIDE
Ca pe T
his c o mple x syste m is ma na g e d b y the na tio na l De pa rtme nt o f Wa te r a nd Sa nita tio n in c o o pe ra tio n with the City, b a se d o n rule s tha t:
Minimize spillage : COCTde ma nd c a n b e shifte d to da ms mo st like ly
to spill to ma ximize syste m yie ld
Minimize Wa sta g e : WC/ WDM Stra te g ie s to b e imple me nte d b y a ll
use rs
Wate r Re str ic tions : DWS a re re spo nsib le fo r de te rmining a nd
ma na g ing wa te r re stric tio ns
SUPPL Y SIDE
Ab o ut a third o f the wa te r in this syste m is use d b y a g ric ulture a nd 7% b y
SUPPL Y SIDE (2016 update / re vie w)
Scenario 1: optimised system operation, 100% success of WDM, no climate change impacts Scenario 2: optimised system operation, 50% success of WDM, no climate change impacts Scenario 3: optimised system operation, 50% success
SUPPL Y SIDE (2016 update / re vie w)
SUPPL Y SIDE
r
7 ye a r s out of 17
mine
Aug me nta tio n sc he me s a re a fa r mo re e xpe nsive so urc e
wa te r tha n runo ff fro m ra infa ll. T he e q uiva le nt vo lume o f runo ff c a nno t b e a ug me nte d in sho rt time pe rio ds a nd is de pe nde nt
ra infa ll pa tte rns. E ve n unde r po o r ra infa ll c o nditio ns like 2017 we wo uld re q uire a ug me nta tio n o f ~770 ML D to ma tc h the vo lume o f runo ff. De spite a ll a ug me nta tio n e ffo rts, the supply sc he me is vulne ra b le to po o r ra infa ll. T his is c le a r fro m the impa c t o f Ma y ra infa ll o n da m vo lume c ha ng e c o mpa re d to 100ML D wa te r pla nt o pe ra ting fo r a mo nth: suc h pla nt wo uld ne e d to o pe ra te fo r 3 mo nths to a dd 1% to da m le ve ls. As c a n b e se e n the c o st pe r kl o f wa te r fro m o the r so urc e s va ry c o nside ra b ly. T he c o st o f b ulk wa te r, wa ste wa te r a nd re tic ula tio n is c o mmo n so the c o sts c a n b e c o mpa re d to the c o st o f runo ff whic h is ~R5.20/ kl vs te mpo ra ry de sa lina tio n a t >R40/ kl.
200 400 600 800
2018 Planned augmentation 2019 Planned augmentation 500MLD 2015 runoff 2016 runoff 2017 runoff Average runoff Wet winter runoff
E quivale nt annual inflow (millions of m3)
216.3 92 37.3
50 100 150 200 250
20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 Wemmershoek Voelvlei TWK All dams
Rainfall (mm) Volume change (ML)
Vol change 100MLD 16MLD Rainfall 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 temporary desalination temporary water re-use groundwater - TMG permanent desalination permanent re-use groundwater - sandy aquifer treated surface water- historical
SUPPL Y SIDE
SUPPL Y SIDE
Original program fe ature s:
E xpe r t r e vie w
2. Pr ior itise gr
(Ca pe F
3. Do not pursue te mpo ra ry de sa lina tio n a nd re use
use a t a n optimum sc ale
PROVIDING ASSURANCEF OR WAT E R SE CURIT Y IN T HE WCWSS:
mb e d WCWSS rule s fo r re stric tio n le ve ls linke d to da m le ve ls;
WC&WDM e ffo rts b o th urb a n a nd in a g ric ulture thro ug h a da pta tio n fo r re silie nc e ;
syste m yie ld in lig ht o f upda te d hydro lo g y a nd fo rma lise a llo c a tio ns to syste m use rs to pro vide c e rta inty;
Spe c ific ally in pur suit of Cape T
ate d wate r str ate gy fo r Ca pe T
nsure the de ve lo pme nt o f
e nabling
wa te r ma na g e me nt so lutio ns pursua nt to pro g re ssive re a liza tio n o f;
re g io na l e c o no my a nd City g ro wth;
nsure a fle xible and adaptive ma na g e me nt a ppro a c h to de a l with a n unc e rta in wa te r future b ro ug ht a b o ut b y e me rg ing c lima tic va ria b ility a nd re g ula to ry unc e rta inty. Pla n fo r e xc e ss and sc ar
c ity;
ability a sso c ia te d with pre se nt o ve r re lia nc e o n surfa c e
wa te r so urc e s c o mprising the WCWSS b y se e king to
dive r sify and inte gr ate wa te rso urc e s a t multiple sc a le s;
ban wate r c yc le a nd ma ximize r e use of waste wate r.
SUPPL Y SIDE
Indicative target time‐frames to implement Time to implement (months from a firm commitment to proceed) Yield (million liters per day)
100 200 300
12 24 36 48
Ground (100) Reuse (70) Desalination (120) Surface (60)
5 10 15 20
100 200 300 400 Target Unit Costs and uncertainty (Rand per thousand liters) Additional supply ‐ Million liters per day (MLD) Ground
+100
Re‐use
+70
Desalination +120 Surface
+60 +50% +33% +25% +20%
AUGME NT AT I ON DE L I VE RI NG WAT E R I N T HE CURRE
NTHYDROL
OGI CAL YE AR I NCL UDE S:
D inc re a sing during ra iny
se a so n;
D;
e mpo ra ry de sa lina tio n – ma ximum yie ld o f 16ML
pe a ke d a t ~8ML D with Mo nwa b isi 7ML D to c o me into syste m in July;
e mpo ra ry tra nsfe rs – Gro e nla nd tra nsfe r pro vide d 7MCM (millio n c ub ic me te rs) in the first q ua rte r o f 2018. SUPPLY SIDE
he c o st o f o pe ra ting sc he me s will de te rmine the spe e d o f ro ll-o ut, a nd o nc e the Pha se 1 sc he me s a re o pe ra tio na l, the de ve lo pme nt o f furthe rpha se s a nd sc he me s will b e e a sie r;
e -use : Wa te r re -use sc he me s inc lude b o th re c ha rg e o f CF
A a s we ll a s tre a ting wa ste wa te r to drinking wa te r sta nda rd a t F a ure tre a tme nt pla nt to pro vide 70ML
me tro ;
fo r e xpa nsio n, pro b a b ly in inc re me nts o f ~50ML D.
AUGME NT AT I ON PROJE CT S COMMIT
T E D T
O AND I N PROGRE SS:
lats Aquife r: L
ic e nse c o nditio ns pro vide fo r e xtra c tio n o f 20MCM/ ye a r in Pha se 1, 25MCM/ yr in Pha se 2 a nd 30MCM in Pha se 3. this tra nsla te s to a susta ina b le yie ld o f 55 – 83ML D a nd a pe a k yie ld o f b e twe e n 83 – 124ML
slo we r tha n pla nne d, b ut the yie lds spe c ifie d within the lic e nse c o nditio ns a re the ultima te ta rg e t fo r pe rma ne nt a ug me nta tio n. T he lic e nse c o nditio ns furthe r re q uire a rtific ia l re c ha rg e o f b e twe e n 12 – 25MCM fo r the thre e pha se s, fo r whic h the pro je c ts a re in de sig n;
able Mountain Gr
: L
ic e nse c o nditio ns c o ve r thre e pha se s a t a numb e r o f lo c a tio ns pro viding fo r a yie lds o f b e twe e n 42 & 130 MCM/ yr tra nsla ting to 115 – 355ML D susta ina b le yie ld. As with CF A, it ma y ta ke c o nside ra b ly lo ng e r tha n o rig ina lly pla nne d to re a lise the yie ld b ut wo rk will c o ntinue until the lic e nse d yie lds a re a c hie ve d. Due to e nviro nme nta l se nsitivitie s, initia l wo rk will b e c o nfine d to Ste e nb ra s whic h lic e nse pro vide s fo r 12-35MCM tra nsla ting to 33-96ML D o ve r the thre e pha se s;
str
D – inje c tio n into the syste m in de sig n;
g Rive r Voe lvle i augme ntation sc he me (BRVAS) in pro g re ss b y DWS to yie ld 60ML
D b y 2021;
ar y r e - use sc he me wa s pa rt o f the se c tio n 29 pro je c ts funde d in De c 2017, a nd will b e c o mple te to wa rds the e nd o f 2018;
aur e pe r mane nt r e -use : T
his pro je c t is in de sig n to pro vide 70ML D (e xpa nda b le to 90ML D) o f re -use wa te r fro m Za ndvlie t & po te ntia lly Ma c a ssa r into the wa te r supply fro m Ste e nb ra s a t F a ure wa te r tre a tme nt pla nt;
ing: T
he impa c t o f unma na g e d a lie ns o n the syste m yie ld ha s b e e n c a lc ula te d to b e in the re g io n o f 20MCM. T he c ity ha s a c c e le ra te d pro g ra ms in its o wn c a tc hme nt a re a s a nd will wo rk with o the r sphe re s o f g o ve rnme nt a nd sta ke ho lde rs to c o ve r a ll re le va nt c a tc hme nts. AUGME NT AT I ON ST
IL L T O BE T RIGGE RE D:
mane nt de salination: pro c ure me nt o f a pe rma ne nt de sa lina tio n pla nt ha s no t c o mme nc e d. a pro je c t is in pro g re ss to e na b le wa te r
q ua lity sa mpling o ve r a n e xte nde d pe rio d to fe e d into the site se le c tio n pro c e ss fo r pe rma ne nt de sa l. While the imme dia te re q uire me nt to a ug me nt supply ha s no t b e e n a g re e d, unde rta king a n upda te d fe a sib ility study is se e n a s a no -re g re t e nde a vo r.
ur the r augme ntation thr
e c onc iliation str ate gy: T
he re c o nc ilia tio n stra te g y is c urre ntly b e ing upda te d b y the WCWSS, inc o rpo ra ting the upda te d hydro lo g y a nd the impa c t o f the thre e -ye a r dro ug ht. F
will re q uire a n a dditio na l 30ML D e ve ry ye a r. Additio na l wa te r sc he me s will thus b e a re q uire me nt into the future . SUPPLY SIDE
DE MAND & SUPPL Y