Cape T own Wate r Outlook 2018 Upda te d 21 F e b rua ry 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Cape T

• wn Wate r

Outlook 2018

Upda te d 21 F e b rua ry 2018 De pa rtme nt o f Wa te r a nd Sa nita tio n City o f Ca pe T

• wn

Cape T

• wn’s wate r

is par t of an inte gr ate d syste m

Ca pe T

• wn g e ts its wa te r fro m a syste m o f da ms tha t

supply a g ric ulture a nd o the r urb a n a re a s. T he c urre nt syste m is he a vily de pe nde nt o n ra infa ll. T his c o mple x syste m is ma na g e d b y the na tio na l De pa rtme nt o f Wa te r a nd Sa nita tio n. Ab o ut a third o f the wa te r in this syste m is use d b y a g ric ulture a nd 7% b y o the r urb a n a re a s (sma lle r to wns).

T he Na tio na l De pa rtme nt o f Wa te r a nd Sa nita tio n is re spo nsible fo r pla nning a nd imple me nting wa te r re so urc e s sc he me s to me e t wa te r de ma nd fo r c itie s, industrie s, mining a nd a g ric ulture . T he De pa rtme nt pla ns a t a 1 in 50 ye a r le ve l o f a ssura nc e . T his me a ns tha t during dro ug hts with a se ve rity o f 1:50 ye a rs o r mo re , re stric tio ns ne e d to b e impo se d to re duc e de ma nd. T he c urre nt dro ug ht is muc h mo re se ve re tha t a 1 in 50 dro ug ht e ve nt. T he be st e stimate o f the re turn inte rval o f the me te o ro lo gic al dro ught in the re gio n o f WCWS S dams is 311 ye ars, with 90% c o nfide nc e that it ac tually falls be twe e n 105 and 1280 ye ars1. T he ne xt a ug me nta tio n sc he me fo r Ca pe T

• wn

wa s pla nne d fo r 2022/ 3 a nd is b e ing a c c e le ra te d b y the na tio na l De pa rtme nt. T his sc he me (a ug me nta tio n o f Vo e lvle i Da m) is unlike ly to b e re a dy b e fo re 2021.

Why is the r e a shor tage of wate r in Cape T

• wn?

Ca pe T

• wn is e xpe rie nc ing a n

unpre c e de nte d multi-ye a r dro ug ht e ve nt.

Ra infa ll in the Ca pe T

• wn a re a is va ria b le . We tte r a nd drie r ye a rs a re c o mmo n.

16 g lo b a l c lima te mo de ls pre dic t a n o ve ra ll de c line in ra infa ll fo r Ca pe T

• wn in the

future with mo re dry ye a rs a nd fe we r we tte r ye a rs. A sc e na rio in whic h it do e s no t ra in the future o r in whic h it o nly ra ins a t 2017 le ve ls is unre a listic .

Will it r ain again? Ye s.

Histo ric al (gre y) and pre dic te d (pink) annual rainfall fo r Cape T

• wn, ac c o rding to

16 glo bal c limate mo de ls. Ye llo w do ts indic ate rainfall inc ide nts e qual to o r lo we r than 2017 rainfall. S

• urc e s:

1F

ac ts are fe w, o pinio ns ple nty… o n dro ught se ve rity again (January 2018) I s Cape T

• wn’ s dro ught the ne w no rmal? (1 No ve mbe r 2017)

Why Cape T

• wn’ s dro ught was so hard to pre dic t (19 Oc to be r 2017)

www.c sag.uc t.ac .za

284 329 368 361 275 184 125 77 83 94 136 201 1010 1100 1100 1218 1039 979 856 821 764 794 884 917 254 737 983 1028 846 451 55 28 27 27 28 136

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Daily consumption MLD Evaporation - Maximum Urban (DWS average of last 5 years) Agriculture unrestricted

284 329 368 361 275 184 125 77 83 94 136 201 556 605 605 670 571 538 471 452 420 437 486 504

102 295 393 411 339 181 22 11 11 11 11 55 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Daily consumption MLD Evaporation - Maximum 45% restricted Urban Agriculture 60% restricted

R E ST R ICT T O

Cape T

• wn will ge t thr
• ugh the dr
• ught IF

r e str ic tions on dam withdr awals ar e e nfor c e d

T he le ve l o f wa te r in the da ms supplying Ca pe T

• wn will no t

dro p b e lo w 10% this ye a r if re stric tio ns a re a dhe re d to a nd a ssuming a no the r lo w ra infa ll ye a r. Mo nito ring da m le ve ls (inflo w, e va po ra tio n a nd withdra wa ls) a nd ma na g ing da m withdra wa ls is a ke y to ma inta ining the inte g rity o f the syste m a nd g e tting thro ug h the dro ug ht.

Ove ra ll le ve l o f the Da ms

Both the City and agr ic ultur e MUST adhe r e to the r e str ic tions impose d on the syste m.

Ca pe T

• wn is

no t ye t me e ting its ta rg e t. Ove r a b stra c tio n b y a g ric ulture is a ke y risk to the syste m.

While Ca pe T

• wn ha s sig nific a ntly re duc e d its de ma nd (me a sure d he re a s pro duc tio n fro m the tre a tme nt wo rks),

fro m a pe a k o f 1200 Ml/ da y in 2015 do wn to b e lo w 600 Ml/ da y, a furthe r re duc tio n in de ma nd is ne e de d to b e lo w 450 Ml/ da y imme dia te ly due to no t me e ting the 500 Ml/ da y ta rg e t.

F

• r

Cape T

• wn, this me ans that de mand must now be

manage d down to be low 450 Ml/ day.

F urthe r me a sure s a re b e ing put in pla c e to re duc e de ma nd, inc luding :

• punitive dro ug ht ta riffs
• de ma nd ma na g e me nt de vic e s & flo w re stric to rs
• mo re a g g re ssive pre ssure ma na g e me nt

De mand r e duc tion is saving 400 Ml/ day

F e b 2017 = 900 Ml/ da y F e b 2018 = 500 Ml/ da y

ASSUMPT IONS:

• Inc r

e me ntal Savings assigne d as follows:

• T

a riff I nc re a se s: e stima te d a t 50Ml/ da y b y e nd o f June 2018

• WMD insta lla tio ns: e stima te d a t 10Ml/ da y b y e nd o f June 2018
• Pre ssure Ma na g e me nt; T

a rg e t Hig h Co nsume rs; L e a k Re pa ir: 32Ml/ da y (mid F e b rua ry to Oc t 2018)

• Build Pr
• gr

amme

• 80% suc c e ss o n b uild pro g ra mme de live ring a n a dditio na l 120Ml/ da y b y e nd Oc t 2018

Pre limina ry Sc e na rio

(a s a t Mid-F e b 2018):

Antic ipate d Savings: >45%

Curre nt % Sa ving s: 39%

NDWS T ar ge t 45%

Whe r e augme ntation c ame fr

• m:

Wate r r e silie nc e e me r ge nc y pr

• gr

amme (May-Oc t 2017)

Pr e mise s:

• Assume no ra in
• Build 500 Ml/ da y

ne w a ug me nta tio n a s fa st a s po ssib le

• No re so urc e

c o nstra int

Pro je c t list as at 24 Oc t 2017

Advic e fr

• m Inte r

national R e vie w

(Nove mbe r 2017)

1. Assuming it will not r ain again is not r e alistic 2. Pr ior itise gr

• und wate r

3. Do not pur sue te mpor ar y de salination and r e use 4. R e -use is c he ape r than de salination and may be quic ke r to e xe c ute 5. Plan and e xe c ute pe r mane nt de salination at a optimum sc ale 6. A tur nke y appr

• ac h fo r re use a nd de sa lina tio n with a wa te r purc ha se

a g re e me nt will yie ld the lowe st c ost pe r

unit of wate r 7. Do not de lay de c isions o n pe rma ne nt re use a nd de sa lina tio n.

Yie ld-c ost c ur ve infor ms pr ior itie s

Augme ntation of 400 ML D mor e than 7 time s c ost of WDM

5 10 15 20 25 30

• 400
• 300
• 200
• 100

100 200 300 400

Yie ld ve rsus c o st

Gr

• und

(Sandy) +80 ML D

Gr

• und

(T MG) 80 ML D R 560m

R e - use 75 ML D

R 1 500m

De salination 150 Ml/ day R 3 750 million

• 400 MLD

savings @ < R 800m +400 MLD supply @ R 6 000m

Approximate/Target Unit costs (Rm per MLD) 1st priority 2nd priority 3rd priority 4th priority Additional supply (MLD) Savings through demand reduction (MLD)

What about ne w wate r supplie s?

AUGME NT AT ION

Aug me nta tio n sc he me s a re a fa r mo re e xpe nsive so urc e o f wa te r tha n runo ff fro m ra infa ll. T he vo lume o f runo ff c a nno t b e e a sily a ug me nte d in sho rt time pe rio ds a nd is de pe nde nt o n ra infa ll pa tte rns. Unde r po o r ra infa ll c o nditio ns like 2017 we wo uld re q uire a ug me nta tio n o f ~720ML D to ma tc h the vo lume o f runo ff. De spite a ll a ug me nta tio n e ffo rts, the supply sc he me is vulne ra b le to po o r ra infa ll. As c a n b e se e n b e lo w the c o st pe r kl o f wa te r fro m o the r so urc e s va ry c o nside ra b ly. T he c o st o f b ulk wa te r, wa ste wa te r a nd re tic ula tio n is c o mmo n so the c o sts b e lo w c a n b e c o mpa re d to the c o st o f runo ff whic h is R

5.20/ kl vs

te mpo ra ry de sa lina tio n a t >R40/ kl.

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Planned augmentation 300MLD 500MLD 2017 runoff Average runoff Wet winter runoff Equivalent annual inflow (millions of m3) R 0 R 10 R 20 R 30 R 40 R 50 temporary desalination temporary water re-use groundwater extraction - TMG permanent desalination permanent re-use groundwater extraction - sandy aquifer treated surface water- historical Estimated cost ranges for treated water by source (R/kl)

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

JA N- 1 8 FEB- 1 8 M A R- 1 8 A PR- 1 8 M A Y- 1 8 JUN- 1 8 JUL- 1 8 A UG - 1 8 SEP- 1 8 O C T- 1 8 NO V - 1 8 D EC - 1 8 JA N- 1 9 FEB- 1 9 M A R- 1 9 A PR- 1 9 M A Y- 1 9 JUN- 1 9 JUL- 1 9 A UG - 1 9 SEP- 1 9 O C T- 1 9 NO V - 1 9

Re stric te d, 100% 2017 600ML D, 100% 2017 Re stric te d, No Aug me nta tio n Re stric te d, 75% ra in Re stric te d, 150% ra in

Ne w wate r supplie s ar e impor tant for wate r se c ur ity going for war d but the se will have little impac t this summe r .

Ne w supplie s ha ve a sma ll impa c t this summe r. But a re ve ry impo rta nt fo r 2019 if winte r ra infa ll is lo w I mpa c t o f Ra infa ll I mpa c t o f Ra infa ll Urb a n re stric tio n ve ry impo rta nt

T he Ne w Wate r Pr

• gr

am – shor t te r m

Contracted projects (Dec‐18 targets)

Notes:

• Ground water prioritised
• Temporary desalination minimised

50 100 150 200 250 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

AUGMENTED VOLUME (MLD)

Springs Ground Water Abstraction - sandy Ground Water Abstraction - TMG Temporary desalination Water transfer Zandvliet reclaimed water Actual

Source Capacity (MLD) Ground (Sandy) 120 Agriculture 67 (4 months only) Ground (TMG) Between 38 ‐ 50 Desalination (temp) 16 Reuse (temp) 10 Springs 7 Total (excl. agric) Between 191 ‐ 203

Source: 2018‐02‐15 rev 01 dashboard

T he dro ug ht a ffe c ts the c ity’ s fina nc e s in two prima ry wa ys:

• 1. R

e duc e d sale s me ans that c ity inc ome is r e duc e d b e c a use ta riffs a re vo lume b a se d.

• 2. Additional e xpe nditur

e is re q uire d to inc re a se a va ila b ility o f wa te r. Ne w so urc e s o f wa te r a re mo re c o stly tha n the wa te r

• b ta ine d fro m the e xisting da ms. T

his inc re a se s b o th c a pita l a nd o pe ra ting c o sts.

F inanc ial implic ations of the dr

• ught

E xisting R e str ic tion T ar iffs (Wate r ) L e ve l 1 L e ve l 2 L e ve l 3 L e ve l 4 L e ve l 5 L e ve l 6 Ste p 1 [0-6kl]

4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 18.75 26.25

Ste p 2 [6-10.5kl]

15.57 15.57 15.57 15.57 26.25 46.00

Ste p 3 [10.5-20kl]

18.22 20.04 21.87 22.78 46.00 100.00

Ste p 4 [20-35kl]

26.99 32.65 36.43 38.32 100.00 300.00

Ste p 5 [35-50kl]

33.33 45.00 61.66 99.99 300.00 800.00

Ste p 6 [+50kl]

43.97 97.71 209.29 265.12 800.00 800.00

Comme r c ial

19.63 21.59 23.55 24.54 37.50 50.00

Pr imar y goals in r e sponding to c halle nge s:

• 1. R

e c ove r full c osts inc luding c o st o f wa te r re silie nc e pro g ra m a nd a de q ua te de pre c ia tio n. I

t is a le g a l re q uire me nt to b a la nc e b udg e t

• 2. R

e tain affor dability fo r po o r pe o ple a nd impro ve pa yme nt le ve ls

• 3. Inc r

e ase r e silie nc e o f ta riff to sho c ks (g re a te r re ve nue sta b ility in fa c e o f dro ug ht c o nditio ns whic h the c ity is c urre ntly fa c ing a nd is like ly

to fa c e a g a in in the future )

• 4. T

ar iff r e fle c ts value of wate r and suppor ts sustainability (inc luding a de q ua te c a sh-b a c ke d de pre c ia tio n to re pla c e a sse ts)

20 ye ar Dam le ve ls

Summar y

1. Da y ze ro CAN b e a vo ide d b y re duc ing de ma nd (in line with NDWS re stric tio n) 2. F

• r City o f Ca pe T
• wn, le ve l 6B re stric tio ns a nd punitive dro ug ht ta riffs (le ve l 6)

3. I nflue nc e a g ric ultura l re stric tio ns to sta y within a llo c a tio n 4. I mpro ve c o mmunic a tio ns a nd ha ve c o nsiste nt me ssa g ing a c ro ss g o ve rnme nt 5. E ng a g e sta ke ho lde rs into a c tive c itize nry

NE XT ST E PS

• De c isions unde r

c onside r ation by the City o n o ptima l a ug me nta tio n type s, vo lume s, me tho ds;

• I

t is impe ra tive tha t so me r

e -use and de salination is b ro ug ht o n line a t a suita b le sc a le q uic kly;

• F

inanc ial impac ts in future a re still so me wha t unc e rta in, b ut will b e sub sta ntia l a s a re sult o f re duc e d & inde te rmina te

future sa le s c o mb ine d with inc re a se d c o sts;

• I

mpro ve d c o o rdina tio n a nd stro ng le a de rship within a nd b e twe e n sphe re s o f g o ve rnme nt is ne e de d, pa rtic ula rly to fast-

tr ac k r e gulator y and pr

• c ur

e me nt pr

• c e sse s.

T hank You