Bangchak Corporation PLC
Analyst Meeting Q3/2017
November 17, 2017
Bangchak Corporation PLC Analyst Meeting Q3/2017 November 17, 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Bangchak Corporation PLC Analyst Meeting Q3/2017 November 17, 2017 Performance Summary BCP Group Portfolios 3Q17 EBITDA Performance Accounting 3,580 MB 28% YoY Marketing Refinery Operating Retail Sales Volume continue to grow High Crude
Analyst Meeting Q3/2017
November 17, 2017
BCP Group Portfolios
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
3
Bio - Based Products Resources Green Power Plant Marketing
(6%YoY)
time in retail price adjustment for higher global crude oil price
Refinery
Thailand & Japan
contribute to EBITDA performance
Accounting
3Q17 EBITDA Performance
Operating
28%
YoY
for cassava based ethanol continue to have cost advantage
higher sales volume and decreased stock loss
LAC (current shareholding 16.1%)
MB from its withdrawal from Mid-Galoc appraisal well
EBITDA Performance - BCP Group
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
4
1/ Profit attributable to owners of the Company Unit: THB Million
Accounting EBITDA Q3 Comparison
1,174 993 1,316 3,855 4,393 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,600 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,000 4,100 4,200 4,300 4,400 4,500 4,600 4,700 4,800 4,900 5,000 Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
Unit: THB Million
Net Profit 1/ 2.80 3.19 0.85 0.72 0.96
Unit: THB/Share
EPS 2,198 474 781 159 44 1,503 607 612
171
2,798 MB
3,580 MB
Q3/2017 Refinery Marketing Power Plant Bio-Products Resources
Refinery Marketing Power Plant Bio-Products Resources
Q3/2016
EBITDA Performance - BCP Group
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
5
1/ Profit attributable to owners of the Company Unit: THB Million
Accounting EBITDA 9M Comparison
1,174 993 1,316 3,855 4,393 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,600 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,000 4,100 4,200 4,300 4,400 4,500 4,600 4,700 4,800 4,900 5,000 Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
Unit: THB Million
Net Profit 1/ 2.80 3.19 0.85 0.72 0.96
Unit: THB/Share
EPS 5,340 1,999 2,276 397 270 3,389 2,531 1,991 195 252
8,302 MB
10,169 MB
9M/2017 Refinery Marketing Power Plant Bio-Products Resources
Refinery Marketing Power Plant Bio-Products Resources
9M/2016
BCP Group Portfolios
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
6
Bio - Based Products Resources Green Power Plant Refinery Marketing
Refinery Business – Going beyond limit
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
7
64 112 116 114 110 114 110.03 53% 93% 96% 95% 92% 95% 92%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17
Crude Run Utilization
44% 29% 22% 46% 71% 78%
Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17
12% 15% 10% 1% 2% 3% 55% 50% 52% 11% 12% 13% 19% 17% 20% 3% 2% 3%
3Q/16 2Q/17 3Q/17
TAM = Turnaround Maintenance Period
Production Profile
Actual Crude Run Unit: KBD
TAM
Product Yield
LPG Gasoline Jet Diesel Fuel Oil UCO
Maximize high value product
Crude Sourcing
Diversify Crude Sourcing: Satisfactory GRM regardless of the changing crude sources
Domestic Import
(TAM)
2017 Target 111 KBD
Still running at an
Accounting GRM
5.62 6.38 6.66 0.03 0.63 0.20 0.32
1.32
Refinery Business – Going strong
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
8 Refinery EBITDA
Unit: THB Million
Unit: THB Million
GRM Performance
Unit: $/BBL 8.18 4.18
Inventory Gain Loss Oil Hedging Market GRM
5.97
Most product crack spread was higher, boosted higher Market GRM, despite widening DTD/DB Completion of COGEN power plant help with refinery stability and lower electricity cost Hydrocracker unit malfunction result in its operation to run sub-optimally BCP Trading Pte. Ltd. contribute EBITDA 7 MB
Q3/17: Performance going strong
Crude Price & Crack Spreads ($/BBL)
1,503 916 2,198 1,383 1,926 1,748 Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 Accounting Operating
Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17
2 4 20 40 60 80
Q3/16 Q4 Q1/17 Q2 Q3
DB DTD/DB
5 10 15 20
Q3/16 Q4 Q1/17 Q2 Q3
GO/DB UNL95/DB FO/DB
Distribution channel – Retail market is our main priority
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
9
Push forward higher sales volume through the highest margin channel Total Sales Volume
235 251 259 284 307 311 163 181 186 179 190 161 45 64 47 51 86 57 55 69 92 93 82 98 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Unit: Million Litre / Month
Total Sales Volume Retail Market Industrial Market Wholesales Exports
Unit: % Portion of total sales volume in 3Q2017
9% 26%
50%
16%
Retail Market Industrial Market Wholesales Export
Marketing Business
934 ML 483 ML 170 ML 295 ML
Marketing Performance – Retail market is our main priority
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
10 Marketing EBITDA
Unit: THB Million
Unit: THB Million
607 669 474 609 674 455 Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 Accounting Operating
Net Marketing Margin
Unit: Baht/Litre
1.04 1.06 0.94 0.38 0.43 0.33 Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 Net Retail Margin Net Industrial Margin 0.80 0.83 0.73 Retail sales volume grew 6% YoY, but declined 2% QoQ due to rainy season Industrial sales volume declined from the higher sales push through retail market, flooding in some areas, and temporary intense price competition Marketing Margin declined from the lag time of retail price adjustment when global crude oil price increase
Q3/17: Slight decline from seasonal effect
Marketing Network – Increasing Market Share & Thruput per station
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
11 Market Share
(Retail Channel)
Jan-Sep’16 Jan-Sep’17 ∆
37.0% 36.5%
15.0% 15.3%
12.9% 12.5% 12.9% 13.0% 5.7% 5.1% 5.0% 4.7% 1.8% 1.8% 7.9% 9.4% 1.6% 1.6%
Unit: K.Litre/Station/ Month
Thruput per station
15.3%
348 392 435 479 504 416 416 450 464 452 494 528 540 573 570 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M2017 BCP Standard AVG Major Oil BCP COCO
Several initiatives to boost BCP’s thruput: optimize current network partnership with SPAR new premium products etc.
*AVG Major Oil : PTT, ESSO, SHELL, CALTEX
Bangchak Service Station - Greenovative Experience
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
12 Standard Type
481 sites
COOP Type
612 sites
New Service Stations
9M2017
service stations as of September 2017
Bangchak Non-Oil Business – Progression
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
13
9M17
branches branches
9M17
stores
R&M Performance Refinery and Marketing business to extract benefit of the value chain
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
14
Refinery Business earning was volatile due to market conditions and Turnaround maintenance (TAM) Marketing Business Captures a Demand Surge During Low Oil Price Environment
R&M as a fully integrated model profit can be optimized through business cycle
8.34 5.88 6.96 9.05 5.99 6.70 3.31 2.68 3.47 3.53 3.53 3.69 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M2017 Net MKM Market GRM Unit: $/BBL
Normalize Integrated Margin
$11.66 $ 8.56 $ 10.43 $ 12.58 $ 9.52 $ 10.39
BCP Group Portfolios
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
15
Bio - Based Products Resources Green Power Plant Refinery Marketing
Green Power Plant – Growing Capacity
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
16 Green Power Plant EBITDA
Unit: THB Million
61 68 65 8 14 13
Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17
Thailand Japan
Electricity Sales of solar power plant
Q3/17: Expanding coverage as planned
Wind
PPA: Philippines 14.4 MW (net to BCPG) Low season led to less wind speed at project site PPA: Thailand 130 MW / Japan 30 MW QoQ lower performance from low season (rainy season) both in TH and JP led to lower irradiation YoY higher performance from operation commencement of various projects both in TH and JP
Solar Geothermal
PPA: Indonesia 182 MW (net to BCPG) Share of profit from Jan – Sep’17 was recorded in Q3/17 altogether
Unit: Million kWh
612 789 781 Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 Accounting
Bio-Based Products – Biodiesel business back on good track
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
17 Bio-Based Products EBITDA
Unit: THB Million
Unit: THB Million
93 8 88 68 121 41 41 74 74
9 9 17 17
30 80 130 180 230 Q3/17
Accounting Operating
Biodiesel Bangchak BioEthanol Ubon BioEthanol Q2/17 Q3/16
89 59 139 159 213
Performance recovered from higher sales volume and decreased inventory loss B7 mixing portion throughout all quarter
Biodiesel
452 669 689 478 672 682 Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 Daily Production Sales Volume
Biodiesel Plant: Production and Sales Volume
Unit: K. Litre per day
B7 B5-B7 B3-B5
127 91 129 118 94 121 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Daily Production Sales Volume
BBE Ethanol Plant Production and Sales Volume
Unit: K. Litre per day
Ethanol
Both plants benefit from declining cassava price while ethanol price increased
Resources Business
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
18
EBITDA contribution positive at 44 MB Galoc oil filed uptime was 99.98% Nido Sales Volume was lower corresponding to the Natural-Decline Production Curve Impairment cost of 1,368 MB
3Q/17: E&P
Target
G7 impairment of USD 40 million (Mid Galoc Area)
expected resource
(based on oil price at 55-65 $/BBL)
Oil Demand & Supply (Incremental Basis)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Million BBL/Day
Demand Supply
2016 2017 2018
BCP Implication
New Venture Business
Hedging opportunity Prolong economic cut off for Galoc oil field
Lithium Americas – LAC plan for NYSE listing
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
19 As of 8 November 2017, LAC made 1-for-5 reverse stock split Numbers of BCPI shares in LAC changed from 70,286,757 to 14,057,351 shares % of shareholding is unchanged at 16.1%
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 BCP invested 37 MUSD @3.5 CAD/Share
LAC share price movement
(adjusted for reverse stock split effect)
plan for listing in within December 2017
Lithium produced from Cauchari-Olaroz (Phase I) for 20 years
available for sale booked in Other comprehensive income of 1,684 MB for 9M2017
3Q/17 Quarterly Remarks – From Financial Aspects
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
21 BCPG Plc.
Invest 356 MUSD in Star Energy group Loan draw down of 8,851 MB for foreign operations 2017 Interim dividend paid of 299 MB Loss from FX forward contract of 255 MB
BBGI Co., Ltd.
Amalgamation with KSLGI completed in 31 Oct’17 (BCP holds 60% in the amalgamated company) effect of the amalgamation will be realized in 4Q/17 performance for 2 months
BIO
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
Gross Profit increased from Inventory gain of 450 MB (company only) Assets growth by 5,572 MB compared to 31 Dec’16 Corporate Income Tax return of 671 MB Tax refund for the year 2009 and 2010
3Q/17 Quarterly Remarks – From Financial Aspects
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
22 BCP Innovation Pte. Ltd.
Increased registered share capital by 1,100 MB Invested 32 MUSD to increase shareholding in Lithium America Corp. (LAC) from 5.2% to 16.1% (2nd largest shareholder)
BCP Energy International Pte. Ltd.
Increased registered share capital by 37 MB
Key Financial Performance - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
23
Gross Profit Mainly increased from Refinery 450 MB inventory gain compare to 35 MB and 1,096 MB inventory loss in Q3/16 and Q2/17 respectively
Remark:
Other Income Mainly increased from a compensation from construction project of 141 MB. (Q2/2017 record a gain from the reversal of provisions from SunEdison acquisition of 140 MB) SG&A Increased from expenses in Non-oil business, HR-related, financial advisory expenses, and higher depreciation Loss on FX forward contracts Mainly from BCPG forward contracts resulting from THB appreciation Gain on Foreign Exchange Mainly from the company group’s foreign currency liability, resulting in a gain as THB appreciated
Statement of Income
3Q16
(Restated)
2Q17 3Q17 Revenue 36,686 42,828 39,009 Cost of goods sold (33,780) (40,465) (35,450) Gross Profit 2,906 2,363 3,559 Investment income and dividend income 51 44 45 Other income 62 236 238 Selling and administrative expenses (1,473) (1,648) (1,785) Gain (loss) from oil hedging contract 11 233 86 Gain (loss) from FX forward contracts 13 (19) (259) Gain on foreign exchange 156 92 299 Loss from impairment of assets 3 19 (1,358) Share of profit of associate and joint venture
(1) 54 420
EBIT
1,728 1,375 1,244
Finance costs (369) (339) (379) Income tax expense (232) 109 630 Profit for the period 1,127 1,145 1,495 Owners of the Company 1,174 993 1,316 Non-controlling interests (47) 153 179 Earnings per share (Baht per Share) 0.85 0.72 0.96
Unit: THB Million
Key Financial Performance - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
24 Remark:
Share of Profit from associates and JV Higher from better performance of Ubon Bio Ethanol, and BCPG recent acquisition in Star Energy Group Holding Pte. Ltd
Unit: THB Million
Loss from Impairment of assets Mainly from Nido’s impairment from the exploration and appraisal expenses, as a result of its withdrawal from Mid-Galoc area Income Tax revenue Tax expense was credited from 2009 and 2010 income tax return of 671 MB
Statement of Income
3Q16
(Restated)
2Q17 3Q17 Revenue 36,686 42,828 39,009 Cost of goods sold (33,780) (40,465) (35,450) Gross Profit 2,906 2,363 3,559 Investment income and dividend income 51 44 45 Other income 62 236 238 Selling and administrative expenses (1,473) (1,648) (1,785) Gain (loss) from oil hedging contract 11 233 86 Gain (loss) from FX forward contracts 13 (19) (259) Gain on foreign exchange 156 92 299 Loss from impairment of assets 3 19 (1,358) Share of profit of associate and joint venture
(1) 54 420
EBIT
1,728 1,375 1,244
Finance costs (369) (339) (379) Income tax expense (232) 109 630 Profit for the period 1,127 1,145 1,495 Owners of the Company 1,174 993 1,316 Non-controlling interests (47) 153 179 Earnings per share (Baht per Share) 0.85 0.72 0.96
Key Financial Position - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.tment
25
43,909 47,075 3,353 3,303 32,143 37,345 6,168 4,286 8,766 8,313 7,444 7,033
31 DEC 16 30 SEP 17
Liabilities & Equity
31 Dec 16 30 Sep 17
25
Bangchak Corporation Plc
Assets: Cash and Equivalents decreased 9,968 MB mainly from the change in working capital, cash paid for asset / acquisition, debt repayment, dividend payment
Unit: THB Million
11,170 26,722 46,462 45,614 2,562 2,174 14,560 15,534 6,022 5,772 21,006 11,539
31 DEC 16 30 SEP 17 Cash and Equivalents & Short term Investment Other Current Assets Inventory PP&E Other Non Current Assets
101,783 Assets
31 Dec 16 30 Sep 17
PP&E decreased 848 MB mainly from
by THB 2,194million
asset lower by 226 MB
Inventory increased by 973 MB mainly due to petroleum products inventories,
Trade Account Receivable decreased 250 MB from lower finished product sales volume & price
Account Receivable
107,355 101,783 Other Non Current Assets increased 15,552 MB mainly from
increase in LAC investment of 1,664 MB
field impairment 107,355
Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Total Equity Other Non Current Liabilities
(Including current portion of L/T debt)
Account Payable Short term loan
Key Financial Position - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
2626
Bangchak Corporation Plc
Liabilities: Short term loan decreased 411 MB mainly from Estimate of short term loan decreased 502 MB from BCPG deferred payment settlement in relation with solar japan acquisition Account Payable decrease 454 MB from trade payables in Sep 17 was paid within the month, although purchase volume was higher than in Dec’16 Other Current Liabilities decreased 1,882 MB mainly from
Long-term debt increased 4,791 MB
Equity: Equities increased mainly from
change of FX translation differences for foreign operations and fair value increase in available-for-sale investment 43,909 47,075 3,353 3,303 32,143 37,345 6,168 4,286 8,766 8,313 7,444 7,033
31 DEC 16 30 SEP 17
Liabilities & Equity
31 Dec 16 30 Sep 17 Unit: THB Million
11,170 26,722 46,462 45,614 2,562 2,174 14,560 15,534 6,022 5,772 21,006 11,539
31 DEC 16 30 SEP 17 Cash and Equivalents & Short term Investment Other Current Assets Inventory PP&E Other Non Current Assets
101,783 Assets
31 Dec 16 30 Sep 17 Account Receivable
107,355 101,783 107,355
Other Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Total Equity Other Non Current Liabilities
(Including current portion of L/T debt)
Account Payable Short term loan
Cash Flow - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
27 Beginning Cash 19,287 MB Change in Cash (9,756 MB) Ending Cash 9,319 MB FX adjustment (211) MB
9,758 13,394 8,959 3,198 500 1,989 185 535 4,340 3,222 2,480
Cash From Operation (CFO) Selling of PPE Funding
19,402
Sources of Cash Uses of Cash
29,158 Q3/17 Sources and Uses of Cash
Unit: THB Million Investment in intangible & other assets Investment in subsidiaries & JV Change in working cap ST Investment Dividend & Interest Received and others Debt Service Investment in PPE Dividend Paid
Refinery - On-going value enhancement projects
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
29
YES-R Project 3E Project
Y2016
Y2017 Y2018 Y2019 Y2020 In operation (Aug’17)
EPC Award (Q1/18)
Completion
EPC Award (Q1/18)
Completion
FEED & ITB Completion (Q2/17) EPC Award
Completion
Co-Gen #3 (≈12 MW)
commission process (Progress: 99%)
Benefit ≈0.20 $/bbl Continuous Catalyst Regeneration Unit (CCR)
(CCR: Higher Capacity & maintenance cycle extension)
Debottlenecking #1: Hydrocracker Unit (HCU) Revamping
(Higher Optimal Crude Run: Distillate)
#2: Debottlenecking CDU & NPU & ISOU & KTU
(Higher Optimal Crude Run: Light & Middle Distillate)
YES-R Project:
Continuous Improvements that focused on reliability, enhanced efficiency, safety, and yield improvement
Automation & Digitalization
Project Timeline
3Q/17 Refinery actual Power usage :
COGEN in operation - Performance Recap
Refinery – 2018 Turnaround Maintenance Plan
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
30
Bangchak Refinery TAM 2018 Plan Period: 30 April – 13 June 2018 (45 days)
Project Tie-in:
Expected Utilization Rate 85%
Retail & Non-oil Networks – Current Network Optimization
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
31
To improve customer experience and advocacy, BCP focus on network coverage, service and non oil benefit with the concept of “Greenovative Experience”
Service Station Design
Competency Improvement
(Customized by Sites)
Current Network Optimization
Retail Networks – Geographical expansion
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
32
Metro & Central Cluster
Ayutthaya, Nakornsawan, Samut sakorn East Cluster
Chonburi South Cluster
Songkha, Trang, Krabi North East Cluster
Nakornrachasrima North Cluster
Chiangrai, Lampang
Network expansion as a cluster
Create brand impact Improve management efficiency Fulfilling Bangchak service station in main roads
BCP Bio-based Business Unit – Amalgamation completed
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
33
Current shareholding structure BBGI Timeline
31 Oct’ 2017 Q4/2017 End 2018 Amalgamation Completed Amalgamated company performance realization (2 months) BBGI IPO
BBGI – Expansion Plan (Tentative Target)
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
34
Current Business Biodiesel business Capacity 810,000 Lt./d PCM plant (PCM: Phase change material) Refined Glycerin Ethanol business Capacity 150,000 Lt./d Debottleneck (45->50 ML/Yr) Ethanol business Capacity 350,000 Lt./d
KSLGI-BoPloy Capacity Expansion (200->300 kL/D) KSLGI-Nampong Capacity Expansion (150->350 kL/D)
New Business Astaxanthin New Products Capacity Expansion
Lithium Americas – Progress Update
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
35 Cauchari-Olaroz project timeline
Complete Preliminary Feasibility Study
Jun’18
Cauchari-Olaroz Project Update
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
36
ir@bangchak.co.th
www.bangchak.co.th click Investor Relations
Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use
provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.
Surplus stock reduction moderates, higher U.S. oil production looming
39 Continue non-OPEC supply growth keeps call on OPEC near 32.5 MBD in 2018
Big closer in gap between total OECD stock & 5yrs-Avg. with strong demand and producer cut production
Source: Argus Media, Euroilstock, IEA, METI, OPEC and EIA – Oct’17
Better OPEC cuts compliance
Oil Production cuts [KBD]
Active U.S. rig start to decline
U.S. Oil Rig count U.S. Oil Production [Right Axis]
Source: IEA – Oct’17 Source: Baker Hughes and EIA Source: IEA – Oct’17
57.38 58.05 59.60 6.81 6.91 7.04 32.80 96.13 97.71 99.12
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2016 2017 2018 OPEC Supply OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC Supply Total Demand
World oil balance (MBD)
Call on OPEC 32.48 MBD Call on OPEC 32.75 MBD
+1.6% +1.4%
(+2.7%) (+1.2%)
20 40 60 80
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 $/BBL
Iran nuclear deal reached Greece Debt Default U.S. Presidential election U.S. supply concern 40 Crude Oil Price Outlook: Tighter crude stock surplus support prices
but oil prices capped by rising of U.S. production
Rig count drop Upstream investment cut China’s stock rout No OPEC production ceiling agreement Iran’s sanction lifted Possible of OPEC and Non-OPEC coordination FED rate hike
Dubai AVG: Q1/17 = 53.0 Q2/17 = 49.7 Q3/17 = 50.4 Q4/17 (F) = 57.8 FY2016 = 41.4 $/BBL FY2017 (F) = 52.7 $/BBL FY2018 (F) = 56.5 $/BBL
Hurricane Season
OPEC and non- OPEC Deal
Fed Rate Hike Expectation
to lower excess crude inventories.
deal
Trump inauguration [20 Jan]
OPEC meeting [30 Nov]
Tension in Iraq Production cut begins
Focus on Q4-17:
Extension cut meeting [May] Summer demand
Saudi Aramco IPO support.
& Brazil
Market Highlights in 2018:
18.8 14.4 11.6 14.5 14.7 14.2 16.1 14.6 18.3 14.8 14.9 14.6 9.7 10.5 10.9 11.5 11.8 11.3 13.8 12.2 13.6 10.6 12.3 12.5
5 10 15 20 25 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 2015 2016 2017 2018
ULG95 - Dubai Gas oil 0.05%S - Dubai Fuel Oil - Dubai
Singapore Product Cracks Spread Outlook
unusual fifth round of export quotas and new refinery startup.
cracks
Market Highlights in 2018:
Asia will offset supply increase from the recently commissioned refinery projects.
support compared to middle distillates on still strong demand.
tightness
Focus on Q4-17: Softer refining margins in Q4 from earlier strong in Q3 but remain supported by winter demand
$/BBL
Financial Figures
Profit and Loss (Consolidated)
43 Unit: THB Million Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 YoY QoQ Sales revenue 36,686 42,828 39,009 6%
Cost of goods sold (33,780) (40,465) (35,450) 5%
Gross profit 2,906 2,363 3,559 22% 51% Investment income and other income 113 280 283 150% 1% Selling and administrative expenses (1,450) (1,633) (1,770) 22% 8% Exploration and evaluation expenses (16) (16) (12)
Gain (loss) from crude and product oil price hedging contract 11 233 86 681%
Gain (loss) from foreign currencies forward contract 13 (19) (259) N/A N/A Share of profit of associate and joint ventures (1) 54 420 N/A 678% Gain on bargain purchase N/A N/A Add back: Depreciation and amortization 1,229 1,250 1,277 4% 2% EBITDA 2,798 2,514 3,580 28% 42% Gain on foreign exchange 156 92 299 92% 225% Reversal of allowance for gain/(loss) from impairment of assets 3 19 (1,358) N/A N/A Finance costs (369) (339) (379) 3% 12% Income tax expense (232) 109 630
Non-controlling interests (47) 153 179 483% 17% Profit attribute to owners of the Company 1,174 993 1,316 12% 33% EPS (Baht/Share) 0.85 0.72 0.96
Profit and Loss (Consolidated)
44 Unit: THB Million 2014 2015 2016 YoY Sales revenue 183,016 151,140 144,705
Cost of goods sold (178,473) (139,686) (132,809)
Gross profit 4,543 11,454 11,896 4% Investment income and other income 1,197 543 527
Selling and administrative expenses (4,488) (5,100) (6,195) 21% Exploration and evaluation expenses N/A Gain (loss) from crude and product oil price hedging contract 499 (407) 107 126% Gain (loss) from foreign currencies forward contract 84 (155) 39 125% Share of profit of associate and joint ventures 5 12 21 69% Gain on bargain purchase 227 N/A Add back: Depreciation and amortization 3,313 4,708 4,734 1% EBITDA 5,162 11,081 11,363 3% Gain on foreign exchange 674 178 237 33% Reversal of allowance for gain/(loss) from impairment of assets (1,157) (65) 37 157% Finance costs (1,427) (1,615) (1,484)
Income tax expense 691 (673) (689) 2% Non-controlling interests (67) (53) (44) 18% Profit attribute to owners of the Company 696 4,151 4,773 15% EPS (Baht/Share) 0.51 3.01 3.47
EBITDA Structure - Consolidated
45
1/ EBITDA from Refinery Business of the Company, BCP Trading Pte. Ltd. and Bongkot Marine Services Co., Ltd. 2/ EBITDA from Marketing Business of The Company, Bangchak Greenet Co.,Ltd., and Bangchak Retail Co., Ltd. 3/ EBITDA from Power Plant Business of BCPG Plc. and its subsidiaries 4/ EBITDA from Bangchak Biofuel Co., Ltd., Bangchak Bioethanol (Chachoengsao) Co., Ltd., Ubon Bio Ethanol Co, Ltd., and BBP Holding Co., Ltd. 5/ EBITDA from Nido Petroleum Limited 6/ EBITDA from BCP Energy International Pte, Ltd., BCP Innovation Pte. Ltd., and others
EBITDA Structure of the Company and its subsidiaries Q3/2016 Q2/2017 Q3/2017 YoY QoQ Total Revenue 36,686 42,828 39,009 6%
Accounting EBITDA 2,798 2,514 3,580 28% 42% EBITDA Refinery Business 1/ 1,503 916 2,198 46% 140% EBITDA Marketing Business 2/ 607 669 474
EBITDA Green Power Business3/ 612 789 781 28%
EBITDA Bio-Based Product Business4/ (65) 59 159 347% 169% EBITDA Resource Business5/ 171 93 44
EBITDA Others 6/ (31) (12) (76)
Profit attributable to owners of the Company 1,174 993 1,316 12% 33% Basic earnings per share (Baht) 0.85 0.72 0.96
EBITDA Structure - Consolidated
46
1/ EBITDA from Refinery Business of the Company, BCP Trading Pte. Ltd. and Bongkot Marine Services Co., Ltd. 2/ EBITDA from Marketing Business of The Company, Bangchak Greenet Co.,Ltd., and Bangchak Retail Co., Ltd. 3/ EBITDA from Power Plant Business of BCPG Plc. and its subsidiaries 4/ EBITDA from Bangchak Biofuel Co., Ltd., Bangchak Bioethanol (Chachoengsao) Co., Ltd., Ubon Bio Ethanol Co, Ltd., and BBP Holding Co., Ltd. 5/ EBITDA from Nido Petroleum Limited 6/ EBITDA from BCP Energy International Pte, Ltd., BCP Innovation Pte. Ltd., and others
EBITDA Structure of the Company and its subsidiaries 2014 2015 2016 YoY Total Revenue 183,016 151,140 144,705
Accounting EBITDA 5,162 11,081 11,363 3% EBITDA Refinery Business 1/ 285 5,097 5,756 13% EBITDA Marketing Business 2/ 2,263 2,497 2,527 1% EBITDA Green Power Business3/ 2,572 3,005 2,559
EBITDA Bio-Based Product Business4/ 303 355 326
EBITDA Resource Business5/ 2 472 323
EBITDA Others 6/ (263) (171) (129) 25% Profit attributable to owners of the Company 696 4,151 4,773 15% Basic earnings per share (Baht) 0.51 3.01 3.47
Financial Ratio (Consolidated)
47
1/ Profit and Total equity attributable to owners of the Company Note: ROE, ROA are annualized figures.
Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 2015 2016 Profitability Ratios (%) Gross Margin 7.92% 5.52% 9.12% 7.58% 8.22% EBITDA Margin 7.63% 5.87% 9.18% 7.33% 7.85% Net Profit Margin 3.07% 2.67% 3.83% 2.71% 3.27% Return on Equity (ROE) 1/ 10.10% 13.21% 13.09% 12.07% 12.73% Return on Assets (ROA) 6.22% 8.27% 7.09% 8.04% 7.51% Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 Liquidity Ratios (times) Current Ratio 2.80 1.92 1.61 Quick Ratio 1.94 1.29 0.90 Financial Policy Ratios (times) Interest bearing debt to Equity (IBD to Equity) 0.91 0.80 0.94 Net Interest bearing debt to Equity (Net IBD to Equity) 0.45 0.45 0.70 Q3/16 Q2/17 Q3/17 DSCR 1.60 3.86 3.83