The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. Analyst Meeting for Q1Y2011 performance - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.

Analyst Meeting for Q1Y2011 performance – May 11, 2011

 Dr. Anusorn Sangnimnuan President  Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong EVP-Accounting &Finance

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Agenda

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BCP Achievements in Q1 and Outlook in 2011 BCP Performance in Q1 Y2011 New Business Progress Marketing Activities in Q1 2011

Global Key Factors to Keep An Eye On

3

Saudi Arabia is forced to replace the loss supply from MENA

Key Factors

Political Tension

Quantitative Easing (QE)

Global Economic Recovery

Bubble Risk in China

High inflation and volatility of US dollar Unrest in oil producing countries may cause oil disruption + World GDP Growth and strong oil demand

Geopolitical Risk OPEC Production Global Economic Recovery Currency Fluctuation

• Debt crisis in some

European countries

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• Poor economic data in OECD countries may

cause short term selling of commodity

Oil price is downward in short-term but in long-term, it moves in an upward trend due to unrest situation and world economic recovery

World Oil Price

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Product Crack Spread

Product cracks stay above 2010 level

90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00 140.00 $/BBL

Dubai Gas Oil ULG95 ~ 20 $/BBL

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BCP Forecasted

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6

Crude Run in 2011

Note : During Feb 3 – Mar 6,2011 , catalyst changing gives more JP-1

Crude Run above 100 KBD with better yield of JP-1

Turnaround Period 32 days

Q1 average crude run 62.7 KBD

Average Crude Run in 2011 ≈ 91.4 KBD

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9.62 $/BBL

Refinery Highlights

Base GRM

62.7 103.0 100.0 100.0 91.4 90.0 109.0 105.0 103.0 102.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Q1 (Actual) Q2 (Plan) Q3 (Plan) Q4 (Plan) Y2011 KBD

Crude Run Sale Volume 7

5.5-6 $/BBL

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Marketing Highlights

323 353 359 379 353 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Q1 (Actual) Q2 (PLAN) Q3 (PLAN) Q4 (PLAN) Y2011

MKM

Number Of Service stations 2009 2010 2011

(As of Apr)

2011

(Target)

E20 139 297 352

500

E85 2 5 5

20 Market share ML 8

1.41 Baht Ltr 1.75 Baht Ltr

Average Sales Volume

1.5 Baht/Ltr

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Bangchak Bio Fuel

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43% 53% 82% 82% 65% 11.6 14.4 22.5 22.5 17.8

Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Yr 2011

Utilization Rate & Production Plan

Utilization Rate Production Plan (ML)

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Agenda

10

BCP Achievements in Q1 and Outlook in 2011 BCP Performance in Q1 Y2011 New Business Progress Marketing Activities in Q1 2011

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GRM Performance

1Q11 1Q10

5 10 15 Q1 2011 Q1 2010

9.62 5.54

• 1

.5 .5 Q1 2011 Q1 2010

• 0.97

0.1

2 4 6

5.12 0.58

4 5 5

2.54 2.46 Accounting GIM ($/Bbl)

13.77 2.54

Total GRM Contribution MKM

16.31 $/Bbl

High GRM & Inventory gain  Oil price increase  High spread due to strong demand of diesel Japan’s crisis

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Unit : $/Bbl

Market GRM) GRM Hedging Inventory G(L) MKM

1Q11

6.41

4Q10

0.77

1 2 3

2.69

2 4

2.98

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Profit and Loss Highlights

Unit : Million Baht

1Q11 1Q10 r 4Q10

Sale Revenue 35,382 33,224 +6.5% 35,661 EBITDA 2,234 1,532 +45.8% 1,988 Refinery business 1,890 1,146 +64.9% 1,767 Marketing business 344 386

• 10.8%

221 Depreciation & Amortization (425) (449) (510) Other FX and Impairment 261 148 172 Financial Cost (191) (199) (221) Pre-tax Profit 1,879 1,032 +82.0% 1,429 Tax (441) (277) (439) Net Profit 1,437 755 +90.3% 990 EPS 1.14 0.65 0.85 Inventory Gain/(Loss) 888 148 +501.5% Adjusted EBITDA 1,346 1,384

• 2.7%

Refinery business 1,002 998 +0.4% Marketing business 344 386

• 10.8%

12 Extraordinary items :

• The dividend of Baht 84

million from Bangchak Biofuel Co., Ltd.

• Reversal
• f

loss from impairment of intangible assets of Baht 241 million.

• The

increase

• f

the consolidated expenses was mainly from the Catalyst write-off Baht 113 million.

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1Q11 1Q10 4Q10

M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL Base GRM 1,664 9.62 1,421 5.54 1,581 6.41 GRM Hedging (168) (0.97) 25 0.10 (189) (0.77) Inventory Gain/(Loss) 888 5.12 148 0.58 663 2.69 Total GRM 2,383 13.77 1,594 6.21 2,054 8.32 Other Income 90 24 421 Operating Expenses (583) (471) (708) EBITDA 1,890 1,146 1,767 Adjusted EBITDA 1,002 998 1,104 Key factors Crude Run (KBD) 62.7 86.3 89.1 Exchange rate (฿/$) 30.68 33.04 30.1 DB ($/Bbl) 100.49 75.83 84.31

Refinery BU Performance

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M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L Net Retail Margin 404 0.70 438 0.73 468 0.77 Net Industrial Margin 64 0.17 69 0.18 96 0.25 Total MKM 468 0.49 507 0.51 564 0.57 Other Income 244 202 206 Operating Expenses (368) (323) (549) EBITDA 344 386 221 Sale Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo

• Retail

40.6 194 41.8 199 42.6 203

• Industrial

26.6 127 27.2 130 27.0 129 Total Sale Volume 67.2 320 68.9 329 69.8 333

Marketing BU Performance

2.52 $/bbl 2.48 $/bbl 2.98 $/bbl

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Assets 31 Mar 11 31 Dec 10 Liabilities 31 Mar 11 31 Dec 10 Cash 1,175 8,504 Short Term Loan + Due 1 Yr 3,380 2,587 Trade Accounts Receivable 8,188 6,314 Trade Accounts Payable 11,063 10,094 Inventories 18,029 15,058 Other Current Liabilities 4,402 4,482 Other Current Assets 5,129 1,635 Long Term Loan 14,257 16,441 Current Assets 32,521 31,511 Other Non current Liabilities 1,049 1,109 Total Liabilities 34,151 34,713 Shareholders' Equity Investment in Subsidiary 348 198 Common Share 1,250 1,177 PPE 24,046 23,311 Premium on Share Capital 9,430 8,462 Leasehold Rights 948 954 Revalue Asset

• Other Non-Current Assets

1,191 1,165 Retained Earning 14,224 12,787 Total Equity 24,904 22,426

Total Assets 59,054 57,139 Total Liabilities & Equity 59,055 57,139

Financial Position Q1 Y2011

15 Remark : Figures were adjusted to the new accounting standard Unit : Million Baht

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81% 83% 15% 12% 4% 5%

EBITDA Net Profit

Financial Measurement Q1 Y2011

Total EBITDA 2,325 MB Net Profit 1,508 MB

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PROFIT / RETURN RATIO

(1Q2011)

Net Profit Margin % 3.98 Earning per Share Baht 1.14 Return on Equity-ROE % 5.97 Return on Assets-ROA % 2.40

FINANCIAL POSITION RATIO

(As of 31 Mar 11) Current Ratio times 1.73 AR Day days 16.61 DSCR times 3.68 D/E Ratio times 0.72 Net debt to EBITDA times 2.78 Book Value per Share (BV) Baht 20.07

BBF Refinery BU Marketing BU

Consolidated

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Bangchak Bio Fuel Performance Q1 Y2011

Profit & Loss

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Balance Sheet

Total Assets 1,259 MB Total Liabilities 762 MB Total Equities 497 MB

807 118 19 315

Cash Other Assets Inventory PP&E

56 S/T Debt Trade A/P Other Liabilities L/T Debt Equity

497 454 170 56 82

Unit : Million Baht 1Q11 1Q10

∆

4Q10 Sale Revenue 683 529 29.1% 836 Cost of Goods Sold (548) (477) 14.9% (673)

Gross Profit Margin

135 52 159.6% 163 Operating Expenses (5) (4) 25.0% (9) Inventory Loss (40) EBITDA 90 59 52.5% 154 Depreciation (11) (11) 0.0% (11) Interest (8) (9)

• 11.1%

(8) Corporate Tax (6) Net Profit 71 38 86.8% 129

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BCP Shareholders’ Structure

18 Unit : Million shares

MOF PTT Others Total BCP-DR1

As of Dec 31, 10

125 10.6% 52 4.4% 249 21.2% 426 36.2%

As of Mar 31, 11

125 10.0% 52 4.2% 215 17.2% 392 31.4% PTT Others Total BCP 281 23.9% 470 39.9% 751 63.8% 281 22.5% 577 46.1% 858 68.6% CDDR fully convert to CS

(at 14.3 Baht/share)

CD-PTT fully convert to CS

(at 14 Baht/share)

Warrant fully convert to CS

(at 18 Baht/share)

Total (BCP&BCP-DR1)

1,177 100% 1,250 100%

Total (Fully Diluted)

22 42 68 1,382

At present

125 9.9% 52 4.1% 198 15.7% 375 29.7% 281 22.2% 609 48.1% 890 70.3% 1,265 100% 7 42 68 1,382 94 42 69

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Agenda

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BCP Achievements in Q1 and Outlook in 2011 BCP Performance in Q1 Y2011

New Business Progress

Marketing Activities in Q1 2011

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BCP Future Prosperity

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EBITDA 6,165 MB Y2010

Marketing 22% New Business 6% Refinery 72%

EBITDA >10,000 MB Y2015

Potash Ethanol Solar BBF PAT : 3,000 – 4,800 MB PAT : 2,889 MB

300 2,200 400

Algae

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Solar Farm : Phase I

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Layout

As of 1 May 2011

Facility Building Pond Landfill 88% Completed Dyke PV Module Installed Phase I : 38 MW

• Project Cost ~ 4,200 MB
• Work Progress 62%
• COD Q4-2011
• Expected EBITDA +700 MB/Year

Solar Farm : Phase I

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PV Module Installation

Solar Farm : Phase I

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Solar Farm Phase II

Phase II : 32 MW

• Locations : 16 MW in Central area

16 MW in North Eastern

• Project Cost ~ 3,600MB
• Expected EBITDA +600 MB/Year
• Start Construction : Q3 2011
• COD : Nov, 2012

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25

Ethanol Project : Investment in UBE

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Ethanol Project : Investment in TAE

TAE Shareholders’ Structure

• BCP investment ≈ 440 MB (40% of Thai Argo Energy)
• Location : Suphanburi Province
• Capacity
• 165,000 Liters/day from Molasses
• 200,000 Liters/day from Cassava (COD June,11)

26 Lanna 45% BCP 40%

Others 15%

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Palm Plantation

• Palm Plantation 80,000 Rais at Phathumthani
• Palm mill with capacity 45 tons/hour (COD in 2015)
• Project cost 800 MB, expected EBITDA 230 MB/yr
• Project progress : Pilot project of 1,200 Rais under land preparation phase

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Algae Energy

4 parties signed MOU to offer help in commercializing algae based oil

• Project cost ≈ Baht 1.1 Billion
• Area 500 Rais (Next to RATCH power plant)
• 30,000-liter capacity of algae oil per day
• Plant expected completion in 2014

28 $/BBL Production Cost Refining Cost Total Cost Residual Crude Oil 80+ 8 88+ Fuel Oil Algae Oil 90-100 20 110-120 None

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Algae Energy Innovation Center: BIO-DOME

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Potash Mining

ASEAN Potash Mining Company (APMC)

• BCP holds 16.20% in APMC
• Location : Chaiyaphum province
• Technology : Solution mining
• r Underground mining

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As of November, 2010

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Agenda

BCP Achievements in Q1 and Outlook in 2011 BCP Performance in Q1 Y2011 New Business Progress

Marketing Activities in Q1 2011

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Marketing Activities

งานรับรางวัล "ปั๊มคุณภาพ ปลอดภัย น่าใช้บริการ”

32

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Sales & Promotion Activities

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152,584 227,091 307,985 340,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 (As of Apr)

Year

Gas asoh

• hol
• l Club

b Membe ber

Number of Membership

เติม E20 E85 รับส่วนลดสะสม 60 สต./ลิตร รับสิทธิ์เติมน ้ามันราคาเดิม ในวันที่ปรับราคา ซื อบัตรบางจากแก๊สโซฮอล์คลับ 1 ใบแถมฟรี 1 ใบ พิเศษ 1 พิเศษ 2 พิเศษ 3

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Sales & Promotion Activities

Co-Promotion with VISA & Krungsri Credit Card

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Launch New Lubricant

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FULLY SYNTHETIC / SAE 5W-30 API SN / ILSAC GF-5 / DEXOS - 1

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BCP’s lubricant product exported to China

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Inthanin PREMIO @ CTW

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Inthanin @ Faculty of Engineering CU

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Inthanin @ Faculty of Architect TU

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Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.

ir@bangchak.co.th

• Tel. 02 335 4580

www.bangchak.co.th click Investor Relations

Analyst Meeting for Q1Y2011