The Bangchak Petroleum PLC
Analyst Meeting FY2014
February 26, 2015
The Bangchak Petroleum PLC Analyst Meeting FY2014 February 26, 2015 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Bangchak Petroleum PLC Analyst Meeting FY2014 February 26, 2015 AGENDA 1 1 FY2014 Highlights 2 FY2014 Financial Performance 3 FY2015 Target AGENDA 1 1 FY2014 Highlights 2
Analyst Meeting FY2014
February 26, 2015
AGENDA
AGENDA
FY2014 Highlights
R&M
Refinery Business
Marketing Business
throughout the year
(417 ML/MO); 60% Retail compared to 59% last year
E&P Business
(own 81.41% of total shares)
Galoc Field
E&P Business
Solar Power Business
ahead of schedule Biofuel Business
Renewable Businesses
Fully Operated
4
5
R&M : Refinery Operation Review
Product Yield (%)
4Q/14 17% 49% 11% 20% 3% FY2014 18% 49% 10% 20% 3% LPG Gasoline Jet Diesel Fuel Oil/VGO 4Q/14 Review
(HCU) for equipment inspection and reparation FY2014 Review
*TAM = Annual Turnaround Maintenance
97.82 48.45 96.99 102.48 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 TAM FY2013 FY2014 99.34 86.48 Crude Run (KBD) FY2013 17% 49% 11% 20% 3% 55% 47% 56% 50% 45% 53% 44% 50% 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 Domestic Import Crude Sourcing (%) FY2013 FY2014 46% 54% 53% 47%
6
R&M : Refinery Performance Review
Crack Spreads Movement : $/BBL
10 20 30 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14
UNL95/DB GO/DB FO/DB
Dubai Price Movement : $/BBL
40 60 80 100 120 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14
104.76 109.21 94.61 52.89 Figures represented in the graph are close price
FY2014 Review
Inventory Loss
4Q/14 Review
price drop faster than crack spreads
GRM Performance ($/BBL)
6.41 4.89 6.94 8.45 5.88 6.96 0.31 0.58 0.61 0.48 0.71 0.48 0.16 2.15 (4.89) (14.21) 1.06 (5.30) 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 FY2013 FY2014 Market GRM Hedging Inventory G/L
6.88 7.61 2.66
7.66 2.15
7
BCP Trading Channels
1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14
713 527 192 214 780 431 18 130 746 475 149 283 777 558 142 275 1,646 1,358 1,654 1,752
FY2013 FY2014
2,935 2,070 698 1,039 6,742 3,016 1,991 502 902 6,410 Total Sales Volume Unit: Million Litre
+3% YoY
YoY
YoY
YoY
YoY
Refined Petroleum Products
Export
OIL
Wholesales
Marketing Business
Industrial Customer Retail Customer
11% 14%
% Data are as of FY2014
30%
Total
45%
8
R&M : Marketing Business
713 780 746 777 527 431 475 558 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 Retail Market Industrial Market
Marketing Sales Volume (Million Litre)
4Q/14 Review
(seasonal demand; long holidays)
(from higher crude run of BCP’s refinery) 2,935 3,016 2,070 1,991 FY2013 FY2014 FY2014 Review
sales volume through industrial market declined due to Refinery turnaround
1,240 1,210 1,221 1,335 5,005 5,006 +3% YoY +9% QoQ +3% YoY +4% QoQ +3% YoY +17% QoQ +0.02% YoY +3% YoY
9
R&M : Marketing Business Performance
Retail Market Share Note: All products excluding LPG and NG Jan-Dec 2013 = 14.8% Rank: 3rd
36.9% 15.1% 14.5% 12.8% 6.2% 5.2% 1.5% 7.8%
2
nd Rank
Jan- Dec 2014 PTTRM Caltex Susco Others
424 130 455 200 400 600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
BCP Standard Type BCP Co-Op Type Thruput per station (K.litre/Station/Month) Major oil excluding BCP
Note: Major oil excluding BCP is defined as PTT, Esso, Shell, Caltex FY2013 FY2014
1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 FY2013 FY2014 40 58 56 64 125 218 39 62 63 67 127 232 Target Actual
10
Renewable Businesses : Solar Power Plant Performance
Electricity Sales (Million kWh) FY2014 Review
solar power plant phase 3 and higher solar irradiation hours 4Q/14 Review
than 3Q/14 but the cold weather helped increasing the electricity generation
Fully Operation of all phases
+6% QoQ +83% YoY
11
Renewable Businesses : Biodiesel Plant Performance
FY2014 Review
government’s policy regarding the portion of B100 mixing with diesel (an increase from 5% to 7%) 4Q/14 Review
increase in Bangchak’s diesel demand 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 FY2013 FY2014 361 352 364 366 343 361 438 432 522 579 456 492 Daily Production Sales Volume Daily Production and Sales Volume (K. Litre per day) +11% QoQ +8% YoY
12
New Business : E&P Business
BCP E&P Timeline 2014 July Established BCPE 2015 December Purchase of additional 33% shares in Galoc Production Company WLL September - October On September 19, BCP acquired 50.10% On October 3 BCP successfully acquired 81.41% of Nido Petroleum Limited
“ Bangchak is successfully acquired 81.41% shares of Nido Petroleum Limited, total investment ≈2,900 THB Million ”
On December 12, 2014 Nido acquired 33% of working interest in the Galoc Oil field for a purchase price of $US 108 million. As of February 17, 2015 Nido holds 55.88% of working interest in the Galoc Oil field FY2014 Reserves = 13.4 mmbbls
*Note: 2P of Galoc = 5.0 mmbbls, Mid Galoc = 4.9 mmbbls
AGENDA
14
Key Financial Highlight (Consolidated)
Revenue (THB Million) 4Q/13 3Q/14 4Q/14 FY2013 FY2014 48,059 46,835 45,749 186,490 183,016
(Restated) (Restated) FY2014 Review
volume decreased due to annual turnaround and average selling price of oil products per unit decreased from a drop in crude oil price
portion of B100 mixing with diesel (an increase from 5% to 7%) 4Q/14 Review
Average selling price of oil products per unit decreased due to a drop in crude oil price
increased (both Biodiesel and Solar Power)
(Restated) (Restated)
4Q/13 3Q/14 4Q/14 FY2013 FY2014
15
Key Financial Highlight (Consolidated)
1,840 1,429 (1,256) 9,463 5,162
EBITDA (THB Million)
FY2014 Review
THB 5,454 Million (An LCM of THB 992 Million)
rapidly drop of crude price
margin (lower cost of ethanol and high margin product sales volume growth)
4Q/14 Review
THB 4,400 Million (An LCM of THB 992 Million)
rapidly drop of crude price
Power generated higher electricity sales due to seasonal effect, higher margin per unit from a slight rebound in CPO and B100 in the quarter
16
Performance Results (Consolidated)
4Q20131/
(Restated)
3Q2014 4Q2014 YoY QoQ FY2013 (Restated) FY2014 Total EBITDA 2/
1,840 1,429 (1,256) 9,463 5,162
EBITDA Refinery
1,189 113 (2,414) 6,336 137
EBITDA Marketing
116 612 318 1,366 2,208
EBITDA Solar Power
412 709 740 1,388 2,572
EBITDA Biofuel
123 54 99 379 303
EBITDA BCPE (E&P)
1
Net Profit
(Attributable to owners of the company)
689 381 (2,489) 4,652 712
EPS
0.50 0.28 (1.81) 3.38 0.52
1/ The Company and its subsidiaries’ operating results of 1Q2013, 2Q2013, 3Q2013, and 4Q2013 were restated according to the new and revised TFRS that are effective for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2014 2/ The different between total EBITDA and the sum of each business EBITDA was due to the elimination items
Business Units Performance
Unit: THB Million
17
Key Financial Highlight (Consolidated)
Profit for the year (THB Million)
Q4/2014 Review
+ Gain from Exchange of THB 192 million + Income tax credit of THB 914 million
718 410 (2,506) (Restated)
4Q/13 3Q/14 4Q/14
FY2014 Review
+ Gain from Exchange of THB 674 million + Income tax credit of THB 463 million
FY2013 FY2014 (Restated) 4,730 756
Statement of comprehensive income 2014 Profit for the year 756 Foreign currency translation differences for foreign operations (354) Total comprehensive income for the year 403
18
Financial Position (Consolidated)
Assets (THB Million)
* Including current portion of long-term debt
Liabilities & Equity (THB Million)
Cash & Equivalents Other Assets PP&E Inventory Non Current Liabilities Current Liabilities L/T Debt* Total Equity 31 Dec 2013 31 Dec 2014
32,917 17,001 17,092 6,527 38,136 16,816 14,059 7,954
31 Dec 2013 31 Dec 2014
34,974 2,301 20,830 15,433 33,966 2,804 30,198 9,997
76,965 76,965 73,537 73,537
2014 was 4.98 mbbl (+0.6 mbbl from December 2013) In addition, LCM was THB 992 million.
from Solar Power Plant, Machinery, equipment refinery plants, Oil & Gas Properties.
from Trade Account Payable in December 31, 2013 in which due date was on a public holiday, however, such amount had been paid in January 2014.
million.
19
Dividends
Dividend Policy: ≥ 30 percent of net profit after deduction of allocation of legal reserve
Dividend Payment : Unit THB per Share
0.50 0.65 0.35 0.60 0.60 0.55 1.00 0.90 0.75 0.40 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 44% 39% 40% 40% 192% At the Board of Directors’ meeting held on 19 February 2015, the Board approved a dividend for 2H2014 of Baht 0.40 per share to the shareholders entitled to receive dividends. 1.05 1.65 1.25 1.35 1.00 1st Half 2nd Half Dividend Payout 2.40 EPS 4.24 3.10 3.38 0.52
(THB per Share)
AGENDA
Global Oil Balance – US supply response price dip and recover
Source: IEA Oil Market Report and Medium Term Outlook Feb 2015
45.60 35.03 45.55 34.73 45.53 35.12 46.82 6.39 47.79 6.58 48.94 6.82 56.59 57.32 57.78
Non-OECD Demand OECD Demand OPEC Sustainable Capacity OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC Supply
2014 2015 2016
(Actual) (Forecast) (Forecast) Excess Supply: + 5.59 +5.29 +5.25
Global Oil Balance 2014 - 2016
Unit: MBD Petroleum Supply Curve $/BBL MB U.S. Supply Continue to Grow
Growth (MBD) 2014 2015 2016 Demand +0.64 +0.92 +1.13 Supply +1.93 +0.62 +1.09
Source: JP Morgan
Call on OPEC Call on Shale
21
22
Crude Oil Outlook – Market rebalancing and price recovery will be limited
Dubai Crude Price Outlook (Unit: $/BBL) 104.5 106.1 101.5 74.4 51.0 50.0 62.0 70.0 105.5 96.7 58.3
20 40 60 80 100 1Q'14 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q'15 2Q 3Q 4Q 2013 2014 2015
“ Inventories build likely to continue until reaches its limits with in Q2’15 ”
2H’15 – Limited recovery
Bullish
markets should start to balance.
Bearish
exports
was likely by the 2H’15
1H’15 – Finding the bottom
Bearish
period in Q2.
possibly raising around 3Q2015.
Greece
reaches its limits sometime in Q2’15. Bullish
Source: BCP outlook
1Q'14 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q'15 2Q 3Q 4Q 2013 2014 2015
17.8 16.0 14.4 16.0 15.1 13.7 14.0 14.5 17.9 16.0 14.3
10 15 20 1Q'14 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q'15 2Q 3Q 4Q 2013 2014 2015
14.6 16.1 13.2 13.4 12.5 13.0 13.5 10.0 13.7 14.3 12.3
8 13 18 1Q'14 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q'15 2Q 3Q 4Q 2013 2014 2015
Fuel oil 3.5%S - DB (Unit: $/BBL) Gas oil 0.05%S - DB (Unit: $/BBL) Gasoline 95 - DB (Unit: $/BBL)
23
Petroleum Product Outlook Soften crack spreads as excess refinery capacity and slow demand
Key driving factors in 2015
▼ Efficiency gain & alternative fuels ▲ New middle Class and road transportation demand in Asia Refinery Capacity ▼ New refinery in ME and India start to operate Key Product Factors
Source: BCP outlook, PIRA
▼ Subsidy removal ▲ Marine Gasoil demand shift in 2015 ▼ ECAs Implemented ▼ Decrease Chinese teapot demand ▲ BP’s 102 KBD in close down by mid-this year.
Net CDU Additions (MBD) 2014 2015 2016 World +0.804 +1.976 +1.717 China +0.714 +0.386 +0.685 Middle East +0.406 +0.817 +0.07
▼ High oil products export from China ▼ India headed export to Asia ▲ Japan nuclear restart postponed to 2H
24
FY2015 EBITDA Roadmap
Refinery 39% Marketing 23% Renewable 31% E&P 7%
FY2015
(Target)
THB Million
FY 2015 Guidance
Crude run plan ≈ 100-105 KBD GRM ≈ 6 $/BBL Refinery Business MK Sales Volume ≈ 450 ML/MO Net MKM ≈ 0.67 THB/litre Marketing Business Solar Power Business Fully Operation for all 3 phases Biofuel Business Biodiesel plant run at full capacity
(360,000 Litre/day) Additional Ethanol capacity of 150,000 Litre/day from new Ethanol Plant
Renewable Business Production rate ≈3,300 Barrels/day net to NIDO E&P Business
25
Oil Business: Marketing Plan
FY2014
Standard Service Station (S/S) CO-OP +24 Sites (626 Sites)
Total 1,070 Sites
At the end of year
FY2015
+18 Sites (444 Sites)
26
New Flagship Service Station
New Flagship Service Station Additional: 2 Service Stations in FY2015
Cha-am Service Station Non-Oil Business
27
Non-Oil: Social Enterprise Model
36% 64% FY2015 FY2016 Maintenance CAPEX
3,000 3,000
Growth CAPEX
3,700 5,000
RE & Resources
5,000+ 5,000+
28
Investment Planning Portfolio FY2015 - FY2016
Green Field
RE & Resources 20,000 MB
Brown Field
ir@bangchak.co.th
www.bangchak.co.th click Investor Relations
Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has been
as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.
Profit and Loss (Consolidated) Profit and Loss (Company) Financial Performance:
Financial Ratio (Consolidated)
31
Profit and Loss (Consolidated)
Unit: THB Million FY2013 (Restated) FY2014 Sales Revenue 186,490 183,016 EBITDA 9,463 5,162 Depreciation and Amortization (2,830) (3,294) Gain (loss) on foreign exchange 132 674 Net reversal of allowance for loss from impairment of assets 24 (821) Financial Cost (1,127) (1,427) Pre-tax Profit 5,662 294 Income Tax Expense (932) 463 Net Profit* 4,652 712 EPS (Baht/Share) 3.38 0.52 *Net Profit attributable to owners of the company YoY%
16% 410% N/A 27%
150%
32
Profit and Loss (Consolidated)
Unit: THB Million 4Q2013 (Restated) 3Q2014 4Q2014 Sales Revenue 48,059 46,835 45,749 EBITDA 1,840 1,429 (1,256) Depreciation and Amortization (725) (841) (1,128) Gain (loss) on foreign exchange (111) 175 192 Net reversal of allowance for loss from impairment of assets 54 3 (826) Financial Cost (271) (392) (403) Pre-tax Profit 787 373 (3,420) Income Tax Expense (68) 36 914 Net Profit* 689 381 (2,489) EPS (Baht/Share) 0.50 0.28 (1.81) *Net Profit attributable to owners of the company YoY% QoQ%
16% 34% 410% 10% N/A N/A 27% 3%
N/A 150% N/A
33
Profit and Loss (Company)
Unit: THB Million FY2013 (Restated) FY2014 Sales Revenue 183,263 178,300 EBITDA 8,429 4,554 Depreciation and Amortization (2,647) (2,840) Gain (loss) on foreign exchange 132 378 Net reversal of allowance for loss from impairment of assets 24 (828) Financial Cost (1,052) (1,294) Pre-tax Profit 4,886 (30) Income Tax Expense (915) 326 Net Profit 3,971 296 EPS (Baht/Share) 2.88 0.22 YoY%
7% 186% N/A 23% N/A 136%
34
Profit and Loss (Company)
Unit: THB Million 4Q2013 (Restated) 3Q2014 4Q2014 Sales Revenue 47,215 45,718 44,256 EBITDA 1,530 1,161 (1,328) Depreciation and Amortization (671) (730) (929) Gain (loss) on foreign exchange (111) 87 (17) Net reversal of allowance for loss from impairment of assets 54 3 (833) Financial Cost (246) (353) (355) Pre-tax Profit 556 168 (3,462) Income Tax Expense (72) 43 759 Net Profit 484 211 (2,702) EPS (Baht/Share) 0.35 0.15
YoY% QoQ%
39% 27%
N/A N/A 44% 1%
N/A N/A N/A
N/A
35
Financial Ratio (Consolidated)
FY2013 (Restated) FY2014 Profitability Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin 3.83% 2.82% Profit Margin 1.49% 0.41% Return on Assets (ROA) 9.33% 2.29% Return on Equity (ROE) 1/ 13.92% 2.09% 31 Dec 13 31 Dec 14 Liquidity Ratios (times) Current Ratio 2.22 2.82 Quick Ratio 1.18 1.61 Financial Policy Ratios (times) DSCR2/ 4.59 1.93 Interest bearing debt to Equity1/ 0.63 0.92 Net Interest bearing debt to Equity1/ 0.42 0.67
1/ Total equity attributable to owners of the Company 2/ DSCR in 2013 was excluded prepayment loan of Baht 5,500 million Note: ROE, ROA are annualized figures.
36
Financial Performance: Refinery BU (Company)
4Q2013 (Restated) 3Q2014 4Q2014 THB Million $/BBL THB Million $/BBL THB Million $/BBL Market GRM 1,464 4.93 1,997 6.94 2,617 8.45 GRM Hedging 353 1.19 176 0.61 150 0.48 Inventory Gain/Loss 622 2.10 (1,408) (4.89) (4,400) (14.21) Total GRM 2,439 8.22 766 2.66 (1,634) (5.28) Other Income 44 0.15 36 0.13 222 0.72 Insurance Claim
0.79 FX Forward Contract (418) (1.41) 5 0.02 (2) (0.01) Operating Expenses (856) (2.88) (694) (2.41) (1,092) (3.53) EBITDA 1,208 4.07 113 0.39 (2,263) (7.31) Key factor: Crude Run (KBD) 101.17 96.99 102.48 Exchange Rate (THB/USD) 31.87 32.25 32.85
106.81 101.45 74.37
37
Financial Performance: Refinery BU (Company)
FY2013 (Restated) FY2014 THB Million $/BBL THB Million $/BBL Market GRM 6,579 5.88 7,167 6.96 GRM Hedging 800 0.71 499 0.48 Inventory Gain/Loss 1,189 1.06 (5,454) (5.30) Total GRM 8,568 7.66 2,213 2.15 Other Income 154 0.14 378 0.37 Insurance Claim 1,518 1.36 764 0.74 FX Forward Contract (923) (0.82) 84 0.08 Operating Expenses (2,942) (2.63) (3,099) (3.01) EBITDA 6,375 5.70 340 0.33 Key factor: Crude Run (KBD) 99.34 86.48 Exchange Rate (THB/USD) 30.86 32.63
105.45 96.66
38
Financial Performance: Marketing BU (Company)
4Q2013 (Restated) 3Q2014 4Q2014 THB Million Baht/L THB Million Baht/L THB Million Baht/L Net Retail Margin 528 0.70 730 0.98 722 0.93 Net Industrial Margin 101 0.19 137 0.29 176 0.32 Net Retail Margin 629 0.49 867 0.71 898 0.67 Other Income 212 0.16 233 0.19 250 0.19 Operating Expenses (710) (0.55) (511) (0.42) (785) (0.59) EBITDA 130 0.10 588 0.48 364 0.27 Sales Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo
52 251 51 249 53 259
37 181 32 158 38 186 Total Sales Volume 89 432 84 407 91 445
39
Financial Performance: Marketing BU (Company)
FY2013 (Restated) FY2014 THB Million Baht/L THB Million Baht/L Net Retail Margin 2,132 0.73 2,943 0.98 Net Industrial Margin 476 0.23 619 0.31 Net Retail Margin 2,608 0.52 3,562 0.71 Other Income 909 0.18 949 0.19 Operating Expenses (2,205) (0.44) (2,335) (0.47) EBITDA 1,312 0.26 2,176 0.43 Sales Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo
51 245 52 251
36 173 34 166 Total Sales Volume 86 417 86 417
40
Financial Performance: Solar Business
Unit: THB Million 4Q2013 (Restated) 3Q2014 4Q2014 Revenue 431 743 780 Gross Profit 333 590 620 Other Income/(Other Expense) 9 6 4 Operating Expense (9) (9) (5) EBITDA 412 709 740 Electricity Sales (MM kWh) 36.82 63.50 67.30 Note:
YoY% QoQ% 81% 5% 86% 5%
80% 4% 83% 6%
41
Financial Performance: Solar Business
Unit: THB Million FY2013 (Restated) FY2014 Revenue 1,463 2,692 Gross Profit 1,108 2,132 Other Income/(Other Expense) 12 28 Operating Expense (17) (25) EBITDA 1,388 2,572 Electricity Sales (MM kWh) 126.84 231.53 Note:
+/(-) YoY% +1,230 84% 1,024 92% 15 124% (9) 52% 1,184 85% +104.69 83%
42
Financial Performance: Biodiesel BU (BBF)
Unit: THB Million 4Q2013 (Restated) 3Q2014 4Q2014 Revenue 1,263 1,243 1,535 Gross Profit 119 59 86 Other Income/(Other Expense) (3.48) (0.30) (0.29) Operating Expense (10) (10) (13) EBITDA 119 63 89 Average Production Rate (K. Litre/Day) 352 364 366 YoY% QoQ% 21% 23%
47%
25% 29%
40% 4% 1%
43
Financial Performance: Biodiesel BU (BBF)
Unit: THB Million FY2013 (Restated) FY2014 Revenue 4,401 5,316 Gross Profit 308 280 Other Income/(Other Expense) 11 0.02 Operating Expense (30) (40) EBITDA 345 298 Average Production Rate (K. Litre/Day) 343 361 +/(-) YoY% +915 21%
10 32%
+18 5%