The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.
Mr. Vichien Usanachote SEVP-Refinery Business Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong EVP-Accounting &Finance
Opportunity Day for Y2010 performance • March 7, 2011
The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. Opportunity Day for Y2010 performance - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. Opportunity Day for Y2010 performance March 7, 2011 Mr. Vichien Usanachote SEVP-Refinery Business Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong EVP-Accounting &Finance Contents BCP Achievements in 2010 BCP Performance
Mr. Vichien Usanachote SEVP-Refinery Business Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong EVP-Accounting &Finance
Opportunity Day for Y2010 performance • March 7, 2011
Crude Selection
Advantages of using local crude Low Sulfur Low Transportation Cost Minimum Inventory day
Y2009 Y2010
34% 13% 35% 50% 11% 14% 17% 22% 3% 1%
Product Yield
LPG MOGAS JET DIESEL FUEL OIL
60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Y2009 Y2010
79.2 86.0
KBD
Crude Run
Local Crude 61%
Far East 39%
Natural Gas
Cogeneration Power Plant EURO IV Project
3
2.63 2.75
1 2
MKM ($/BBL)
Y2009 Y2010
+5%
6.09 2.15
2
Y2010 8.24 $/Bbl
Accounting GIM ($/BBL)
Total GRM Contribution MKM
Better Margin Year
Crude Run increased Less production of Fuel Oil and higher production in diesel. Better products crack spread
3.98 5.63
1 2
Base GRM ($/BBL) 5.62 0.03
1 2
GRM Hedging ($/BBL) 3.16 0.43
1 2
Inventory G (L) ($/BBL) 4
2.4% 12.4%
6.8%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
BCP Industry
2009 2010 2009 2010
2009 2010 56.6 63.6
2010 ML/MO Mkt Share PTT 508.0 37.0% ESSO 239.8 17.4%
BCP
189.4 13.8% SHELL 179.9 13.1% CALTEX 91.4 6.7% OTHERS 166.0 12.1% 1,374.5
1
3
2 4
Retail Market Share moved up to 3rd rank
JET
Sales Vol. (ML/MO)
+12.4%
300 Stations 5 Stations 139 Stations 2 Stations MOGAS JET
Sales Vol. Growth in 2010 5
2009 2010 1.46 1.74
Lube
+19.2%
Sales Vol. (ML/MO) Sales Vol. Growth in 2010
19.3% 6.9% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% 18.0% 21.0%
BCP Industry
China Burma Cambodia
6
139 stations were rebranded
Co-Op Standard station
70 stations were rebranded
7
Inthanin Premio @ CTW Inthanin @ Faculty of Architecture and Planning, TU Inthanin @ Faculty of Engineering, CU Inthanin @ Faculty of Science, CU
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95.3 97.8 98.4 97.4 98.8 98.5 99.2 99 99.2 99.1 97.8 98.8
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Yield 2010
53.3 63.3 84.4 43.3 77.8 85.4 108.6 38.2 102 75.7 57 90.6
20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Utilization 2010
% Utilization % Yield
AVG 98.3% AVG 73.3%
Revenue : 2,474 MB EBITDA : 341 MB Net Profit : 252 MB
9
Phase I : 38 MW
10
The Asset Corporate Titanium Award Platt's Global Energy Awards Readers Digest Trusted Brand 2010 Top CG Awards Best CSR Awards Thailand Quality Class
Awards TRIS Rating
11
4Q10 2010 2009
Sale Revenue 35,661 134,638 107,678 EBITDA 1,988 5,827 12,244 Refinery business 1,767 4,466 10,839 Marketing business 221 1,361 1,405 Depreciation & Amortization (510) (1,820) (999) Other FX and Impairment 172 495 (93) Financial Cost (221) (862) (512) Pre-tax Profit 1,429 3,640 10,640 Tax (439) (992) (3,165) Net Profit 990 2,648 7,475 EPS 0.85 2.26 6.53 Unit : Million Baht 13
4Q10 2010 2009 M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL Base GRM 1,581 6.40 5,631 5.63 4,016 3.98 GRM Hedging
28 0.03 5,631 5.62 Inventory Gain/(Loss) 662 2.68 434 0.43 2,221 2.22 Write Down (LCM)
0.94 Total GRM 2,054 8.32 6,093 6.09 12,810 12.76 Other Income 421 1.70 544 0.54 49 0.05 Operating Expenses (708) (2.87) (2,171) (2.17) (2,020) (2.02) EBITDA 1,767 7.15 4,466 4.46 10,839 10.79 ฿
14
Key factors Crude Run (KBD) 89.1 86.0 79.2 Exchange rate (฿/$) 30.1 31.9 34.6 DB ($/Bbl) 84.3 78.0 61.8
4Q10 2010 2009
M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L Net Retail Margin 468 0.77 1,851 0.77 1,840 0.79 Net Industrial Margin 96 0.25 297 0.20 176 0.15 Total MKM 564 0.57 2,148 0.55 2,016 0.57 Other Income 206 0.21 833 0.21 860 0.24 Operating Expenses (549) (0.55) (1,620) (0.42) (1,471) (0.42) EBITDA 221 0.22 1,361 0.35 1,405 0.39 2.98 $/bbl 2.75 $/bbl 2.63 $/bbl
Sale Volume (ML/Mo) 333 324 295
203 201 195
129 123 100
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Assets Dec 31, 2010 Dec 31, 2009 Liabilities Dec 31, 2010 Dec 31, 2009 Cash 8,504 1,711 Short Term Loan + Due 1 Yr 2,587 1,687 Trade Accounts Receivable 6,314 5,501 Trade Accounts Payable 10,094 6,023 Inventories 14,588 13,625 Other Current Liabilities 4,498 4,911 Other Current Assets 2,104 1,943 Long Term Loan 16,441 13,568 Current Assets 31,510 22,780 Other Non current Liabilities 869 880 Total Liabilities 34,489 27,069 Shareholders' Equity Investment in Subsidiary 198 198 Common Share 1,177 1,170 PPE 27,073 27,711 Premium on Share Capital 8,462 8,369 Leasehold Right 954 1,025 Revalue Asset 4,108 4,477 Other Non-Current Assets 1,445 1,187 Retain Earning 12,944 11,816 Total Equity 26,691 25,832
Total Assets 61,180 52,901 Total Liabilities & Equity 61,180 52,901
Unit : Million Baht 16
72% 70%
22% 21%
6% 9%
EBITDA NET PROFIT
PROFIT RETURN RATIO
(For 2010) Net Profit Margin % 1.97 Earning per Share Baht 2.26 Return on Equity-ROE % 10.09 Return on Assets-ROA % 4.64
FINANCIAL POSITION RATIO
(As at 31 Dec 10) Current Ratio times 1.83 AR Day days 16.1 DSCR* (net CAPEX) times 2.29 D/E Ratio times 0.71 Net debt to EBITDA* times 1.95 Book Value per Share (BV) Baht 22.68
*EBITDA excluded inventory effect for 12 months backward
Biodiesel (B100) Marketing & service station Refinery business Net Profit 2,889 MB Total EBITDA 6,165 MB
Revenue Growth 25% 21% - Oil price increased 4% - Sales volume increased
17
Unit : MB 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY % SALE 529 523 586 836 2,474 100% COGS (455) (454) (497) (663) (2,069)
GROSS PROFIT MARGIN
73 69 89 174 405 16.4% OPEX (14) (15) (16) (19) (64)
EBITDA 59 54 73 155 341 13.8% DEPRE (11) (11) (12) (11) (45)
INTEREST (9) (9) (9) (8) (36)
Corporate Tax (6)
NET PROFIT 38 33 52 129
252
10.2%
Accounted for approx. 9%
817 255 231 166 545 149 475 186 115
Balance Sheet Profit & Loss
18
61 67 8 11 1 1 22 17
Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
2009 2010 86 79 KBD $/BBL 2009 2010 5.63 3.98 KBD 2009 2010 96 92
Domestic and Export Sale Volume
M.7 PTT Own Market
GRM Increase Utilization Rate
Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
Export
20
Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
New/Opportunity Crude 3.5 New/Opportunity Crude 4.1
Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
Other Import 9.3 Onshore 7.8 Offshore 9.0 Other Import 9.9 Onshore 7.6 Offshore 10.1
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Gas Oil EURO IV Incentives
Incentive 24 st./L @ 190 ML/Month ~ 550 M Baht/Year
2010 2011 2012++
EURO IV becomes fully effective from 1 Jan 2012
Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011 Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
2011: @ 210 ML/Month ~ 605 M Baht/Year 22
NG Usage for Cogeneration and Plant Fuel
Boiler & T/G
Electricity 5.9 MW
Cogeneration
(PTT)
Before After
Fuel oil, Fuel Gas NG
Total Saving Cost: 380 M Baht Security in power supply Lower emission
Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
Stream 150 T/hr. + Electricity 17.3 MW
MEA
Electricity 2.9 MW Stream 46.7 T/hr. + Electricity 14.6 MW
MEA
T/G : Turbine Gas
Boiler & T/G
Fuel oil, Fuel Gas
Stream 53.8 T/hr. + Electricity 5.7 MW
Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
Fuel oil, LPG NG
Plant Fuel Plant Fuel
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Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
2009 2010 2011
Dubai Brent WTI
beat analyst estimation
speculation of QE2 appealed commodities such as oil
U.S. economic recovery
Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
25
UNL 95-Dubai Gas Oil-Dubai Fuel Oil-Dubai
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 2009
Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
Open western arbitrage from Asia Strike in France resulted in 1.2 MBD of supply disruption Higher demand from China for Asian games Peak diesel import from China to meet its domestic policy of power supply cut drove Asian market Abundant of supply due to higher western arbitrage inflow
$/BBL $/BBL $/BBL
Performance 2010 Global Oil Market 8.45 12.54 9.29 8.60 10.70 10.31 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 7.21 8.86 11.25 12.43 13.02 11.49 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00
0.00 2010
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Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
Global economy is continuing to grow this year but decelerated in China, and India with slow growth of developed countries.
Source : IMF, Jan 2011
The worst is over Economy is moderate recovery
2.8
5 4.4 4.5 0.0
2.8 3.0 2.7 0.5
1.8 1.5 1.7
4.3 1.6 1.8 9.6 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.5 6.4 5.7 9.7 8.4 8
2 4 6 8 10 12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 World US EU Japan China India
World GDP Growth Outlook (%YoY)
29
North America Latin America Africa Middle East 2009 2010 2011 FSU Europe Asia
Source : IEA, Feb 2011
Yearly demand rise will be driven by emerging countries such as China and Middle East, while OECD countries will still see their year-on- year consumption declining in 2011.
*Include Biofuel Demand
618 85
278 204
215 267 238 6 45 105
278 123 619 728 1444
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
Global Oil Demand* 2009-2011 (MBD)
82 84 86 88 90 2009 2010 2011 +2.84, 3.3% +1.46, 1.7% 85.0 87.8 89.3
30
UAE, 0.3 Nigeria, 0.3
Kuwait, 0.2
Others, 0.8 50.9 50.9 51.7 52.8 53.5 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.8 30.3 31.2 28.7 29.2 86.7 85.9 85.0 87.8 89.3 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 World Oil Balance (MBD) OPEC Supply OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC Supply
Call on OPEC 29.9 MBD
Brazil, Columbia, the FSU and global biofuels.
Saudi Arabia 3.8 Source : IEA, Feb 2011
Spare Production Capacity (MBD) World Oil Balance (Demand/Supply)
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
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High inflation and asset price bubble risk in China may make Chinese policy maker raises interest rate and reserve ratio More QE policy would cause weak dollar leading money flows to Commodities Uprising around oil producers may cause oil disruption World GDP Growth leads by Asian Countries, China (9.6%) and India (8.4%)
Key Factors
Political Tension
Quantitative Easing (QE)
Global Economic Recovery
Bubble Risk in China
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
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Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
Political Tension
33
LIBYA’S OIL AND GAS RESOURCES
proven oil reserves in Africa – 44 billion barrels of oil and slightly over 54 trillion cubic feet of natural gas
There is still the uncertainty about how much the unrest in Africa and Middle East will spread and how long Libya’s oil will be shut off.
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
Political Tension
Source : Thomson Reuters MBD 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.8 MBD 1.6 MBD
LIBYA’S OIL EXPORT AND OUTPUT
Europe, , 79 79% China, , 10 10% U.S., ., 5% Other, r, 6%
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4Q10 2011 2011 Singapore Cracked Margin Outlook ($/BBL)
We estimate Singapore crack margin will recover from 2011 onwards
Topping Margin Cracking Margin
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
35
Refinery Capacity Utilization Plan 2011 (KBD)
93 KBD 81 KBD Feb 6 KBD Mar Jan
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
37
+ 7%
Complex Refinery Old Hydrocracker’s Catalyst Complex Refinery New Hydrocracker’s Catalyst
PRODUCT YIELD
GRM +1.00 $/BBL
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
Light Distillates 28% Light Distillates 23% Jet 8% Jet 15% Diesel 52% Diesel 50% Fuel Oil 12% Fuel Oil 12%
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Natural Resources ASEAN Potash Mining (APMC) : 16.4% Clean Electricity Bangchak Solar Energy (BSE) : 100% Biofuel Bangchak Biofuel (BBF) : 70% Ubon Bio Ethanol (UBE) : 21.3%
The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.
Retail Management & Logistic Bangchak Greennet (BGN) : 49% Fuel Pipeline Transportation
(FPT) : 11.4%
Refinery & Retail Marketing Business
40
nd Mark
200 200 Stations 10 10 Stations
41
300,000 360,000
Production Capacity
(Ltr/Day) 42
Starch : 600 T/day Cassava Farm : 10,000 Rai
Ubon Agricultural Energy (UAE) Ubon Bio Gas (UBG)
100% 100%
Ethanol: 400,000 Ltr/Day COD : Jun 2012
Ubon Bio Ethanol (UBE)
Biogas : 72,000 m3/day Power Plant : 1.9 MW
21.3% 21.3% 57.4% Existing Shareholder
43
Phase III Phase II Phase I
700 MB 1,300 MB 2,200 MB
EBITDA/Yr TOTAL/Yr
+ Secure PPA 120 MW with EGAT and PEA + Adder of Solar-electricity 8 Baht/Kwh, 10 years long + BOI Tax Privilege
44
BCP Introduce “Solution Mining”
“Conventional Mining” “Solution Mining”
45
Located 65 km from BBF
46
4 times higher yield than Palm oil with in-sight viable economic return
$/BBL
Production cost Refining Cost
Total Cost Crude Oil (Marginal Barrel) 80+ (Deep Water) 8 88+ Palm Oil 120+ (Palm 4 B/kg) 20 140+ Algae Oil 90 -100 (MBA Australia) 20 110-120
Just HSD, JP-1 Ready to Commercial Must handle other production i.e. Fuel Oil
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ir@bangchak.co.th Tel. 02 335 4580 www.bangchak.co.th click Investor Relations
Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use
provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
Energy consumption plan
Base 2009 (6.53%FOEB) 2010 Oper. Oper.
Invest. Accumulate Energy reduction, %FOEB 0.421 0.472 0.009 0.480 0.099 0.487 0.256 % reduction on base 2009 6.4 7.2 0.1 7.4 1.5 7.5 3.9 6.4 7.4 8.9 11.4 2012 (est.) 2011 (est.) 2013 (est.)
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Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
Energy consumption plan
Energy saving Benefit (%FOEB) (MB/yr) Operational Improvement 0.086 76.3
0.001 1.1
0.057 40
0.003 0.1
0.002 1.4
0.007 3.7
0.004 3.0
0.012 27 Project name
51
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market Outlook Refinery Business Plan 2011
Energy consumption plan
Investment Energy saving Benefit IRR Payback period (MB) (%FOEB) (MB/yr) (%) (yrs) Investment Improvement 482.6 0.256 167.9
2.0 0.010 7.9 280 0.4
3.5 0.007 5.6 115 0.9
1.5 0.007 7.3 340 0.3
1.0 0.001 2.6 170 0.5
6.6 0.005 2.5 27 3.4 6.Generate LPS from debutaniser bottoms in HCU* 26.4 0.018 9.0 24 3.7
38.4 0.005 11.0 19 4.3
25.2 0.014 7.0 18 4.5
43.2 0.022 10.5 15 5.0
80.4 0.045 30.5 27 3.4
74.4 0.032 22.0 20 4.2
180.0 0.090 52.0 19 4.3 Project name
52