Bangchak Corporation Plc.
Analyst Meeting Q2/19
14th August 2019
Bangchak Corporation Plc. Analyst Meeting Q2/19 14 th August 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Bangchak Corporation Plc. Analyst Meeting Q2/19 14 th August 2019 Table of Content 01 02 04 03 Q2/19 Q2/19 Appendices Business Performance Financial Updates Update Performance BCP Group Performance Q2/19 Key Takeaways EBITDA
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
Analyst Meeting Q2/19
14th August 2019
Q2/19 Financial Performance
Appendices
Q2/19 Performance Update
Business Updates
BCP Group Performance – Q2/19 Key Takeaways
Marketing
increased retail sales portion
Refinery & Trading
but YoY still weak from oil product oversupply Power Plant
Bio-Based Product
biofuel margin squeeze
Natural Resources
from changes in investment interest in OKEA, PPA revision and technical impairment on goodwill from lowered gas price of Gjoa oil field 1,929 517 650 509 610 630 762 737 721 171 194 136 36 (23) 145
Natural Resources Bio-Based Products Power Plant Marketing Refinery & Trading
EBITDA Performance
2,189 3,335 1,959 985 214 528
Net Profit
attributable to
parent
Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
Unit: THB Million Unit: THB Million
3
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
EBITDA Performance – BCP Group
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
4
0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5
Target 100%
Power Plant 1,458 Marketing 1,240 Refinery 1,167 Biofuel 330 E&P 122 1H/19 Performance Compare to Target by Business Unit Accounting EBITDA 4,147 Million Baht
Unit: THB Million
28% 30% 35%
8%
3%
6,358 4,147 1H/18 1H/19 2,153 742 1H/18 1H/19
1.56 0.54
Unit: THB Million
EBITDA
Unit: THB Million
Net Profit 1/
1/ Profit attributable to owners of the parent Unit: THB/Share
EPS
Refinery Business – Maintain high production rate & smooth operation
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
5
Production Profile
Actual Crude Run Unit: KBD
GRM Performance Unit: $/BBL
8.81 3.43 4.95 7.51 4.20 (0.39) 0.09 (0.09) (0.22) 4.39 (0.03) (0.33) 1.55 (0.18)
12.82 3.49 4.53 8.84 4.02 Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 1H/18 1H/19
Market GRM Hedging Inventory Gain/Loss
2Q/19 Refinery Group
GRM weaken YoY from global production over supply and US – China trade war situation GRM better QoQ mainly due to UNL spread recovery, and refinery’s smooth production 107 MB Inventory Loss from the sharp crude price fall in Jun’19 (Q2/18 and Q1/19 Inventory Gain(Loss) at 856 MB and (9) MB respectively) BCP Trading transaction volume grew YoY from products and trade partners expansion, but soften QoQ from weak oil demand from the effect of trade war
5 10 15 20 GO/DB UNL95/DB IK/DB FO/DB
AVG Crack spread movement ($/BBL)
50 60 70 80 90
DB DTD
AVG Crude oil price movement ($/BBL)
* Operating EBITDA : exclude Inventory gain/loss, One-time items, Gain/loss from FX forward contracts
66.8 110.1
112.7
88.0 111.4 56% 92% 94% 73% 93%
10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 1H/18 1H/19
Crude Run Utilization
TAM TAM
Distribution channel – Retail market sales continues to grow as our main priority
284 307 334 342 364 179 190 184 167 150 51 86 58 50 50 93 82 112 111 68
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Q1/15 Q3/15 Q1/16 Q3/16 Q1/17 Q3/17 Q1/18 Q3/18 Q1/19
Unit: ML/Mo
Total Sales Volume Retail Industrial Wholesales Exports (FO & UCO)
2Q/19 Marketing Group – Acc. EBITDA 630 MB (+24% YoY, +3% QoQ) Total marketing sales volume +6% YoY and +1% QoQ
expansion, service station sales push, and B20 diesel promotion
competition Total Marketing Margin increased from the higher retail sales portion, and the lower product cost following crude oil price downward trend Non-oil business Bangchak Retail Revenue grew 28% YoY and 7% QoQ, and cost controlling measure still implemented
Net Marketing Margin
Unit: Baht/Litre 0.75 0.71 0.83 0.79 0.77 Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 1H/18 1H/19
Retail
58%
Industrial
24%
Total Sales Volume
(% Portion of total sales volume in 2Q/19) Service Stations Factories, Jobbers, Aviations
Export
Very low sulfur Fuel Oil
8%
Other oil companies
11%
Wholesale
161 193 206 308 400 Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 1H/18 1H/19
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
6 Unit: THB Million
Bangchak Retail Revenue
Marketing Network – Increasing Market Share & Thruput per station
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
7
15.5% 12.6% 12.1% 9.3% 4.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8% 12.2% 12.1% 10.2% 4.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7%
6M/18 6M/19
Retail sales volume Market Share (%) 41.2% 40.2%
+21
New Service Stations
1H/19
service stations as of Jun 2019
Standard Type
570 sites
(≈79% of Retail Sales Volume)
COOP Type
615 sites
(≈21% of Retail Sales Volume)
Jun’19
+18 stores
1H/19
+1 stores
1H/19
Jun’19
Supporting non-oil businesses Service stations outlets
436 479 510 496 496 128 131 125 118 118
495 464 452 446 437 2015 2016 2017 2018 6M/19
Thruput per station
Unit: K.Litre/Mo
BCP Standard
BCP Co-op AVG Major oil
Source: DOEB
Bangchak B20 promotion campaign
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
8
4 5 9 17 29 35
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 1.3% 1.8% 3.4% 6.4% 10.5% 13.9%
% compared to total Diesel sales through marketing business
B20 Sales Volume
Unit: Million Litre
Bangchak B20s is better than normal B20 products, with
a more responsive driving experience both on flat terrain and inclines
engine, lowering corrosions helps reduce pollution, but sells at the same price, allow more energy for the engine, and more economical for the customers
B20 is currently available in
stations nationwide
and still expanding
+400
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
9
Power Plant Business Bio-based Products Business Natural Resources Business
Powe BCP Group Portfolio – Refinery & Marketing Business BCP Group Portfolio – Subsidiaries
Power Plant Business – BCPG
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
10
130 139 148 34 15 15 158 158 158 14 14 14 Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Operating Capacity (MW PPA)
Solar Wind Solar Geothermal Wind
336 326 335 66.7 71.9 75.9 132.7 147.8 14.9 4.1 5.4 24.0 9.5 Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 1H/18 1H/19
JP TH
81.6 76.0 81.3
Electricity Sales
Unit: Million kWh
2Q/19 Power Plant Group – Acc. EBITDA 721 MB (-5% YoY, -2% QoQ) Electricity Sales slightly higher: TH: Increase both YoY & QoQ from:
JP: decrease YoY but increase QoQ:
Share of profit from associated companies:
156.8 157.2
Bio-Based Product Business – BBGI
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
11
2Q/19 Bio-based products group
Biodiesel
from its oversupply situation, and higher price competition on B100 product
Ethanol
KL/day), but -4% QoQ from BBE annual maintenance
ethanol price and sales volume decline
a better profitability from Q3/19 onwards
35 48 46 70 94 39 54 44 81 98 Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 1H/18 1H/19 Sales Production
Ethanol Production & Sales Volume
Unit: million litres 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
Ethanol B100
Biofuel Price Movement
Unit: Baht/litre Source: EPPO
68 71 82 141 153 61 67 74 132 141 Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 1H/18 1H/19 Sales Production
Biodiesel Production & Sales Volume
Unit: Million litres
Natural Resource Business – Petroleum Exploration & Production
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
12
Full quarter share of profit from OKEA 102 MB; comprised of
from Gjøa Field from the lower gas price
(additional share allocation and IPO share purchase)
BCP, 49.33 % Seacest, 34.98% Minor Shareholders, 15.70% Prior to IPO BCP, 46.62% Seacrest , 20.22% Minor Shareholder, 33.16% Post IPO
OKEA shareholding Structure
8.64 9.24 10.49 10.50 0.37 0.31 Q1/19 Q2/19
Production Volume (Net to OKEA)
(unit: kboe/d)
56.2 60.7 6.49 4.05
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Gas Price ($/MMBTU) Liquid Price ($/BBL)
Realized Prices
Source: OKEA
Ivar Assen Gjoa Draugen
OKEA has successfully listed its shares in Oslo stock exchange
Q2/19 Financial Performance
Business Updates
Appendices
Q2/19 Performance Update
Q2/19 Highlights
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
14
Cash Activities OKEA’s IPO
OKEA’s IPO transaction issue 15 M.Share in Jun’19 BCPR SG’s additional investment of 226 MB in OKEA ASA’s IPO Proportion of shareholding in OKEA ASA change from 49.33% to 46.75% Recorded gain from changes in investment interest in OKEA of 94 MB Noted: Greenshoe option was excercised on 17 July 2019, proportion of BCPR shareholding change to 46.62% BCP Bond repayment 4,000 MB in Apr’19 BCP 80 MUSD Long term loan drawdown Dividend payment BCP paid dividend from 2H/18 performance of 688 MB (0.50 THB/Share) BCPG paid dividend from Q1/19 performance of 320 MB (0.16 THB/Share), paid to BCP 224 MB
Statement of Income - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
15
(Unit: MB)
Gross Profit -33% YoY, +19% QoQ: fluctuated mainly due to refinery performance
Unit: MB
Statement of Income
Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 (Restated) Revenue 45,558 45,535 48,326 Cost of goods sold (41,699) (43,355) (45,738) Gross Profit 3,858 2,181 2,588 Investment income and dividend income 12 37 31 Other income 181 81 77 Selling and administrative expenses (1,785) (1,721) (1,897) Gain (loss) from oil hedging contract (136) 29 (28) Exploration and evaluation expense (13) (4) (0.2) Gain (loss) from FX forward contracts 95 (11) 27 Gain (loss) on foreign exchange (39) 57 168 Loss from impairment of assets (412)
(8) 157 156 EBIT 1,753 806 1,121 Finance costs (374) (443) (421) Income tax expense (253) 32 (25) Profit for the period 1,126 395 675 Owners of the Company 985 214 528 Non-controlling interests 141 181 147 Earnings per share (Baht per Share) 0.72 0.16 0.38
(Unit: MB)
(Unit: $/BBL) Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Market GRM 8.81 3.43 4.95
4.39 (0.03) (0.33) Hedging (0.39) 0.09 (0.09) Crude run (KBD) 66.80 110.12 112.68 Revenue +6% YoY, +6% QoQ: mainly increased from Refinery & Marketing
Revenue portion from subsidiaries increased by 4% YoY, 2% QoQ Share of profit of associate and JV Q2/2019
7 MB
(15) MB
(12) MB
74 MB
102 MB
Statement of Income - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
16
Statement of Income
6M/18 6M/19 Revenue 89,783 93,861 Cost of goods sold (82,597) (89,093) Gross Profit 7,186 4,768 Investment income and dividend income 28 68 Other income 240 159 Selling and administrative expenses (3,446) (3,618) Exploration and evaluation expense (22) (5) Gain (loss) from oil hedging contract (209) 1 Gain (loss) from FX forward contracts 95 16 Gain on foreign exchange 133 225 Loss from impairment of assets (412)
115 314 EBIT 3,710 1,928 Finance costs (739) (864) Income tax expense (476) 7 Profit for the period 2,494 1,070 Owners of the Company 2,153 742 Non-controlling interests 341 328 Earnings per share (Baht per Share) 1.56 0.54 The company groups’ 6M/19 performance declined compared to 6M/18, mainly from refinery business was affected by the year round global oil price fluctuation.
(Unit: MB)
(Unit: $/BBL) 6M/18 6M/19 Market GRM 7.51 4.20
1.55 (0.18) Hedging (0.22)
87.96 111.40
Financial Position - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
17
Total Asset 117,369 116,183 1% Total Liabilities 67,831 66,423 2% Total Equity 49,538 49,760 0.4%
1,185 MB
31 Dec 18
Unit: MB
Cash and Equivalents & ST Investment 5,887 MB
Inventory 2,086 MB BCP increase crude oil and oil products inventories in preparation for the Hydrocrack unit maintenance at the beginning of 3rd quarter
30,896 32,177 48,877 49,704 3,680 3,356 15,135 17,221 6,969 7,799 11,813 5,926 31 DEC 18 30 JUN 19 Cash and Equivalents & Short term Investment Other Current Assets Inventory PP&E Other Non Current Assets
117,369
Assets
31 Dec 18 30 Jun 19 Account Receivable
116,183 30 Jun 19 PP&E 827 MB
+ Increased mainly from refinery 3E projects 1,313 MB and power plant assets
1,189 MB
Other Non Current Assets 1,282 MB
+ Increased of Long-term loans to related parties from loan to LAC 702 MB + Other long-term investments + Change in net fair value of available-for-sale investment (LAC) 384 MB + Investment in new start up 126 MB
31 Dec 18 30 Jun 19 Crude 3.16 MBBL 3.43 MBBL Product 1.77 MBBL 2.43 MBBL
Financial Position - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
18
Account Payable 2,231 MB from: YE 2018 had usual less AP since prepayment was made in December 2018 Other Current Liabilities 1,772 MB
Total Asset 117,369 116,183 1% Total Liabilities 67,831 66,423 2% Total Equity 49,538 49,760 0.4% 31 Dec 18
Unit: MB
30 Jun 19
Other Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Other Non Current Liabilities
(Including current portion of L/T debt)
45,460 43,825 7,603 5,831 6,680 8,911 5,004 4,639 3,083 3,217 31 DEC 18 30 JUN19
Liabilities
31 Dec 18 30 Jun 19
67,831 66,423
Account Payable Short term loan
Other non current liabilities 134 MB
Long-term debt 1,635 MB
+ Loans from financial institutions increased by 2,328 MB mainly from BCP and BBGI
1,408 MB
Financial Position - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
19
Equity Total Asset 117,369 116,183 1% Total Liabilities 67,831 66,423 2% Total Equity 49,538 49,760 0.4% 31 Dec 18
Unit: MB
30 Jun 19
6,823 6,946 27,607 27,623 15,273 15,279 31 DEC 18 31 MAR 19 49,538 49,760 Other Components Non-Controlling Interests Retained Earnings Paid up capital, Share premium and capital surplus
(87)
223 MB 30 Jun 19 31 Dec 18
(165)
Retained Earnings 16 MB
+ 6M2019 BCP Net Profit of 742 MB
Non-controlling interest 123 MB Other component of equity 79 MB
+ Net fair value change in available-for-sale investment (LAC)
increased by 384 MB
by 10 MB
Cash Flow - Consolidated
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
20
BCP Liquidity Management
Beginning Cash 11,551 MB Ending Cash 5,703 MB FX adjustment (228) MB
BCP bond repayment (4,000) MB Working capital management (1,298) MB
Other activities (320) MB 3,600 3,811 2,309 60 3,022 959 880 320 300 Cash From Operation Funding
7,470
Sources of Cash Uses of Cash
7,791
Debt Service - Repayment Investment in PPE Tax Paid Investment in intangible assets and others Dividend paid Investment in subsidiaries, associated companies Selling of PPE, Selling
6M/19: Other cash activities
Unit: THB Million
Debt Structure as of 30 Jun 2019
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
21
10% 19% 71% 80% 20%
29,434 MB
55% 45% 13% 43% 30% 14%
48,464 MB
BCP only Consolidated
Baht Bond USD Loan Baht Loan JPY Loan Baht Bond Baht Loan USD Loan %Fixed %Float %Fixed %Float 0.76 0.80 0.85 1.26 1.35 1.59
Q2/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
Liquidity and Leverage Ratios
Unit: Times Current Ratio Net IBD to Equity
Q2/19 Financial Performance
Business Updates
Appendices
Q2/19 Performance Update
Refinery Business – Updates
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
23
Status Progress Expected Completion
Continuous Catalyst Regeneration Unit (CCR)
(CCR: Higher Capacity & maintenance cycle extension)
80% 2020
Debottlenecking Hydrocracker Unit (HCU) Revamping
(Higher Optimal Crude Run: Distillate)
80% 2020
3E Project Updates
Piping installation
Hydrocracker maintenance to change catalyst went as planned
Equipment Erection Overall CCR Construction Area
Plan after resume normal operation
maintenance Upgrading projects
Refinery Business – IMO analysis
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
24
Global Refinery Industry Global bunker fuel demand will shift to marine gasoil in 2020
for bunker fuels, initially creating a huge disposition issue for HSFO.
blends of gasoil/residuals
demand 0.5%S => Strong distillates cracks spread
Bangchak’s preparation
3.46 1.21* 1.5 2.95 0.97 2019 2020
Source: FGE Energy Consultant
MBD Gap
*Scrubber & Cheating & etc.
(Unit: MBD)
Global Bunker Fuel Switch
HSFO Marine FO Marine GO
Crack Spread movement
Source: Consensus Balancing
Marine GO/DB Marine FO/DB HSFO/DB
$/BBL
Marketing Business – 2H2019 network expansion plans updates
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
25
Continue to increase market share in Retail Sales 2019 Network Expansion
New Stations Mostly Standard size
SPAR convenient stores is under business plan revision, and will enhance its efficiency before continue to roll out more branches The award considered by three factors namely BRAND QUALITY, BRAND AFFINITY and BRAND PERSONALITY of eligible brands, as voted by 15,000 consumers, marketing/branding/PR experts, and independent assessors of Superbrands.
Bangchak named a “Superbrand”
Inthanin coffee shop is developing a new business model “Inthanin Grocery” to serve middle-sized service stations
Marketing Business – 35th year Bangchak promotions
26
To celebrate 35th years anniversary Bangchak offer various marketing promotional campaigns via loyalty card and service stations sales
Bio-Based Products Business – Capacity increment project continues as planned
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
27
KGI-NP II Ethanol
66 ML/Yr
200,000 L/D Expected COD Q3/20 BBF Biodiesel
330 ML/Yr
1,000,000 L/D COD July 2019 Additional plant
Kanchanaburi Khonkaen Ayudhaya Chachoengsao Bangkok
KGI-NP I Ethanol
49.5 ML/Yr
150,000 L/D BBGI holds 100% BBF Biodiesel
307 ML/Yr
930,000 L/D BBGI holds 70% KGI-BP Ethanol
99 ML/Yr
300,000 L/D BBGI holds 100%
Ubonratchathani
UBE Ethanol
120 ML/Yr
400,000 L/D (Associated company)
BBE Ethanol
45 ML/Yr
150,000 L/D BBGI holds 85%
+
Capacity increment in existing plant Additional plant Refined Glycerin
27,000 Ton/Yr
Expected COD Q3/20
IPO plan to be in 2020 currently waiting for clarification in high value bio-based investment projects
Completed
Bio-Based Products Business – opportunities in refined glycerin plant & B10 mandate policy
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
28 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Market Glycerin Price Unit: THB/Kg.
Refined Glycerin Crude Glycerin
(Current B100 by-product)
Refined Glycerin plant is expected to allow BBF to gain extra margin
Source: ICIS
Additional plant Refined Glycerin
27,000 Ton/Yr
Expected COD Q3/20 Crude Glycerin
≈33,000 Ton/Yr
Current By-Product Affected by the softened crude glycerin price
Sales volume
Production volume
0.56 0.72 0.76 0.92 0.98 1.03 1.06 0.19 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.76 0.82 0.86 1.06 1.12 1.17 1.20 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Mandate Policy
B7 B7 (Option B10/B20) B7/ B10 Mandate
Capacity 0.90 ML/day*
* Plant capacity based
Plant Capacity
BBGI B100 sales volume
Unit: ML/Day
Sales to BCP Sales to others
B10 Refined Glycerin
Capacity 0.84 ML/day*
OKEA – Project update
29
Bangchak Corporation Plc.
Planning activities are ongoing for drilling of:
Both wells will be drilled in Q4 2019.
Draugen
Development is on track towards first oil in H1 2020 The Wellhead Module is planned to be transported to the Yme Field in Q3 2019, and the Jack-up unit is planned to be departing the yard for transport to the Yme Field in Q4 2019
Yme
ir@bangchak.co.th
www.bangchak.co.th click Investor Relations
Disclaimer : The information set forth in this presentation is being furnished on a confidential basis solely for informational purposes and recipient’s using, and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise explicitly provided herein, nothing in this document shall be construed or interpreted, either expressly or by implication, or otherwise as an offer to sell
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that are not historical or current facts. These statements include projections, valuations and statistical analyses based on the intent, belief or current expectations on the date hereof of the Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (the “Company”) or its officers with respect to the consolidated results of operations and financial condition, and future events and plans of the Company. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "expects," "plans," "will," "estimates," "projects," “intends,” “would,” “may” or other similar expression in this
assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results. In all cases, the recipient should make an independent investigation, evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters set forth in this presentation. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable; however, the Company or any of their respective members, directors, officers, employees, or affiliates makes no representation or warranties whatsoever, whether express, implied or statutory, and hereby disclaims all responsibility or liability for, including without limitation, any special, direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, or consequential losses and damages arising out of or in connection with the accuracy, completeness or use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. To extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations, the Company may, at any time, revise the information contained herein without notice and makes no commitment to update the information, and the estimates and assumptions associated therewith as of any future date.