AIM AIM I ntroduction of energy scenarios in I ntroduction of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AIM AIM I ntroduction of energy scenarios in I ntroduction of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AIM AIM I ntroduction of energy scenarios in I ntroduction of energy scenarios in Thailand and future plan 15 th AIM International Workshop, NIES, Japan Feb 20 2010 Feb 20, 2010 Bundit Limmeechokchai Sirindhorn International Institute of

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SLIDE 1

AIM AIM

I ntroduction of energy scenarios in I ntroduction of energy scenarios in Thailand and future plan

15th AIM International Workshop, NIES, Japan Feb 20 2010 Feb 20, 2010 Bundit Limmeechokchai

Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT)

Thammasat University (TU)

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SLIDE 2

Thailand’s GHG Inventory 1994 y

(Source: IPCC, Thailand NC1)

2 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 3

THAI LAND

Area

  • Total 513,115 km2 (50th) or 198,115 sq mi

( ) q

  • Water (% ) 0.4 (2,230 km2)

Population p

  • 2010 estimate 63,723,953 (21st)
  • 2000 census 60,606,947
  • Density 132.1/km2 (85th) or 342/sq mi

Density 132.1/km (85 ) or 342/sq mi

GDP (PPP) 2008 estimate

  • Total $547.060 billion (24th)

Total $547.060 billion (24 )

  • Per capita $8,239 (86th)

GDP (nominal) 2008 estimate GDP (nominal) 2008 estimate

  • Total $273.313 billion (33rd)
  • Per capita $4,116 (92nd)

3 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 4

Population

70.00 80.00

Population

60.00 70.00

n

40.00 50.00

ion person

20.00 30.00

Mill

2005 2030 2050

  • 10.00

2005 2030 2050 0-14 13.26 14.45 15.93 15-64 43.29 49.09 54.10

  • ver 64

4.44 5.27 5.81 Total 60.99 68.82 75.84 4 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 5

45 000 50,000

  • No. of HH

35 000 40,000 45,000

housands HH

30,000 35,000

T

20,000 25,000 10,000 15,000

  • 5,000

2005 2030 2050

5 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 6

Final energy consumption (ktoe) gy p ( )

70000 50000 60000

toe)

40000 50000

umption (kt

30000

rgy Consu

10000 20000

Final Ene

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Transportation Commercial and Residential Industrial Agricultural

6 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 7

Energy consumption in the transport sector (ktoe)

25000 20000

  • e)

15000

sector (kto

10000

Transport

5000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year

LPG Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline Fuel oil LPG Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline Fuel oil

7 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 8

Energy consumption in the industrial sector (ktoe)

30000

Coal and its Products Petroleum Products Natural Gas Electricity

25000

) Natural Gas Electricity New & Renewable Energy

15000 20000

ector (ktoe

10000 15000

ndustrial se

5000

In

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

8 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 9

CO2 emissions (Energy) ( gy)

200

Transport Power Manufacturing Commercial and Residential Others

160 180 120 140

Million ton

80 100

CO2 M

20 40 60 20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

9 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 10

SO2 emissions (Energy) ( gy)

0.6

Transport Power Manufacturing Commercial and Residential Others

0.5 0.4

  • n ton

0.3

SO2 Millio

0.2 0.1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

10 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 11

Ktoe per GDP p

0.07

Transportation Indutrial Agricultural Commercial

0.05 0.06

ht

0.04

Million Bah

0 02 0.03

ktoe per M

0.01 0.02 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

11 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 12

Estimation of floor area in buildings g

Floor Area

40.00 45.00

Floor Area

25.00 30.00 35.00

n m2

15.00 20.00

Million

0.00 5.00 10.00 2005 2030 2050 Office 27.68 36.44 38.94 Hospital 10.91 24.52 28.49 Hotel 20.54 29.08 31.46 D t t 2 6 23 Department 15.15 21.61 23.41 Education 13.97 24.34 28.35

12 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 13

Transport Sector p

Travel demand

370

350 400

eter

Train (tptr ) Bus (tpbs) Large vehicle (tplv)

250 300

ger-kilome

Large vehicle (tplv) Small vehicle (tpsv) Two wheel (tptw)

199

200 250

  • n passeng

walk bike

81 88

100 150

Billio

Air (tpar)

1 2 13 28 30 49 16 34 2 5

  • 50

2005 2050

13 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 14

Energy Consumption (2005)

  • 44
  • 1,278

42

Coal Petroleum Natural gas Biomass Solar & Wind Electricity

  • 4,898

5 621 5,332

e

6,436 25 140 3,850 3,430 1,520 5,621 3,256

ktoe

  • 6,622
  • 1,896
  • Residential

Agriculture Mining & Quarrying Construction Manufacturing Industry Service Transport 14 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 15

Energy Consumption (2050)

  • 410
  • 351
  • Coal

Petroleum Natural gas Biomass Solar & Wind Electricity

70,375

  • 39,588

e

53,801 207 1,174 10,222 845 42,511

  • 19,325

ktoe

36,114 23,689

  • 40,377
  • 6,055
  • Residential

Agriculture Mining & Quarrying Construction Manufacturing Industry Service Transport 15 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 16

Energy Consumption in I ndustry (2005)

801 608.02

Coal Petroleum Natural gas Biomass Solar & Wind Electricity

269 18 326 798 1477 553 1585 68 661 4520 1585.68 1519.98 4798 190

ktoe

1787 344 83 606 292 1787 344.83 702.27 606 342

Textiles Food products & beverages Chemical Other Manufacturing Metallic & machinery Non metallic 16 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 17

Energy Consumption in I ndustry (2050)

9,699 3,760

Coal Petroleum Natural gas Biomass Solar & Wind Electricity

8,568 9,699 33 758 5,611 33,758 4,623

e

32 680

38,555

12,925

ktoe

32,680 2 734 15,905 2,859 166 7,110 192 2,734 5,948

Textiles Food products & beverages Chemical Other Manufacturing Metallic & machinery Non metallic 17 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 18

Gross Domestic Product

35,033

2005 2030 2050

40

Baht

191 47 4 55 98 15,24 5,626 9 023 06 22 6,334 6,891

Billion

673 174 166 481 240 326 758 824 183 4, 2,44 634 605 1,750 873 1,184 2,75 2,9 665 5 1,459 1,390 4,0 2,00 2,72 1,530

ure ng ion les ges cal ng ery llic ces Agricultu g & Quarryi Constructi Texti s & beverag Chemic Manufacturi c & machine Nonmeta Servic Mining

  • d products

Other M Metallic Foo

18 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 19

Forecast of FEC

(Low GDP 3.5%)

19 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 20

Share of energy types in industries (2005) Share of energy types in industries (2005)

I NDUSTRY Electricity (% ) Heat (% )

Food & Beverage 13 87 g Textile 71 29 W d & F it 70 30 Wood & Furniture 70 30 Paper 23 77 Chemical 32 68 Non Metallic 8 92 Basic Metal 43 57 Fabricated Metal 70 30

20 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 21

Breakdown of energy consumption in Thai gy p commercial buildings

21 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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22 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 23

23 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 24

% Share of electricity used in Thai residential

24 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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% Share of non-electricity used Thai residential y

25 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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26 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 27

27 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 28

Renewable Energy Development in Thailand: TRANSPORT SECTOR

SALES OF GASOHOL AND UNLEADED GASOLINE 95

250 250 200 250 200 250

Gasohol 91+95+E20 ULG95

200 200 150 Million Litres 150 Million Litres 100 100 50 50 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08

28 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 29

Renewable Energy Development in Thailand: TRANSPORT SECTOR

Consumption of Gasoline and Diesel

(million litres/day)

Consumption of Gasoline and Diesel

(million litres/day) ( y)

100 120 Petroleum NGV Biofuel

( y)

100 120 Petroleum NGV Biofuel E10,E20,B2,B5

E85,B10

80 80 60 60 20 40 20 40

29% of gasoline and diesel will be substituted by biofuels and NGV in 2020

20 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

29 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 30

Results: TOE savings per Investment g p

Notes: Exchange rate: 35 Baht = $1 US

30 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 31

Results: NPV per tCO2 mitigation

Notes: Exchange rate: 35 Baht = $1 US

31 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 32

Forecast of system peak demand in Thailand (MW)

70,000.00

Peak demand during 2009-2030

50,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00

mand (MW)

20 000 00 30,000.00

Peak dem

10,000.00 20,000.00 0.00

32 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

Years

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SLIDE 33

Future power plants in variable system p p y

Plant type

Installed capacity Investment cost Life Fuel cost Generating cost

(MW) ($/ kW) (year) ($/ MMbtu) ($/ kWh) (MW) ($/ kW) (year) ($/ MMbtu) ($/ kWh)

Nuclear 1000 3022 60 0.5 0.0683 Coal-fired with CCS 800 1875 30 4.01 0.0809 Coal-fired (pulverised) 800 1565 30 4.01 0.0737 Combine cycle gas turbine 290 429 20 20.51 0.2894 CHP/Co-generation (SPP) 800 714 25 9.76 0.0974

Source: (EGAT, Thailand, 2010)

15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 33

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SLIDE 34

Installed capacity (MW) in BAU

90,000 100,000

AU

Hydro NGCC Oil Lignite Coal Nuclear Biom ass Solar Wind

BIOMASS

70,000 80,000

W) in BA

Nuclear Biom ass Solar Wind

NUC

50,000 60,000

acity (MW

COAL

30,000 40,000

ed Capa

COAL

10,000 20,000

Installe

NGCC

10,000 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3

HYDRO

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Year

34 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 35

Installed capacity (MW) in CTX $25

90,000 100,000

e

Hydro NGCC Oil Lignite Coal

70,000 80,000

$25 cas

Nuclear Biomass Solar Wind

50,000 60,000

(MW) in

30 000 40,000 50,000

apacity (

10 000 20,000 30,000

alled Ca

10,000 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3

Inst

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Year

35 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 36

Installed capacity (MW) in CTX $50

90,000 100,000

e

Hydro NGCC Oil Lignite Coal

70,000 80,000

$50 case

Nuclear Biomass Solar Wind

50 000 60,000 ,

MW) in $

30 000 40,000 50,000

pacity (M

20,000 30,000

alled Cap

10,000 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3

Insta

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Year

36 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 37

Installed capacity (MW) in CTX $100

90,000 100,000

ase

Hydro NGCC Oil Lignite Coal N l Bi S l Wi d

70,000 80,000

$100 ca

Nuclear Biomass Solar Wind

50,000 60,000

(MW) in

30,000 40,000

apacity

10,000 20,000

stalled C

2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3

Ins Year

37 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 38

Installed capacity (MW) in CTX $200

90,000 100,000

e

Hydro NGCC Oil Lignite Coal

70,000 80,000

200 case

Nuclear Biomass Solar Wind

50 000 60,000 ,

MW) in $2

30 000 40,000 50,000

pacity (M

20,000 30,000

alled Cap

10,000 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3

Insta

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3

Year

38 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 39

Generation cost (cents/kWh) ( / )

12 BAU 10

s/kWh)

25$/tC 50$/tC 100$/tC 6 8

st (cents

200$/tC 4 6

tion cos

2 4

Genera

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

39 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 40

Total CO2 emission (million tons CO2)

350 400

BAU

300 350

25$ 50$ 100$

200 250

$ 200$

150 50 100 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3

YEAR

40 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 41

Cumulative CO2 reduction from power generation

Carbon CO2 reduction 2007-2020 CO2 reduction Total CO2 reduction Carbon tax rate 2007 2020 Million tons reduction 2021-2030 Million tons CO2 reduction Million tons 25$/tC 0 136 34 83 34.97 (0 7% ) 25$/tC 0.136 34.83 (0.7% ) 50$/tC 163 22 353 19 516.41 (10 6% ) 50$/tC 163.22 353.19 (10.6%) 100$/tC 200 35 601 23 801.57 (16 5% ) 100$/tC 200.35 601.23 (16.5%) 1,506.20 200$/tC 538.97 967.23 (31.0%)

41 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 42

Reference Energy System (RES), Thailand-MARKAL Model

MARKAL-ANSWER and MARKAL-MACRO

42 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 43

2010 Plan with AI M with AI M

43 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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SLIDE 44

Thailand’s Future Plan Thailand s Future Plan

  • Low carbon society (within April 2010)
  • AIM End-Use Model
  • AIM-MARKAL Integrated Analysis
  • Integrated analysis of RE & EE
  • Integrated analysis of RE & EE
  • Evaluation of low carbon scenarios
  • AIM/CGE for Policy Assessment
  • AIM/CGE for Policy Assessment

44 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

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45 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.