Agriculture, Food Security and Nutrition Post 2015 Per - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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May 05, 2023 306 likes •580 views

Agriculture, Food Security and Nutrition Post 2015 Per Pinstrup-Andersen Mapping the Future of Development Economics UNU-WIDER 30 th Anniversary Conf. September 17-19, 2015 17 Sustainable Development Goals and 169 Targets Eradicate extreme

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Agriculture, Food Security and Nutrition Post 2015

Per Pinstrup-Andersen Mapping the Future of Development Economics UNU-WIDER 30th Anniversary Conf. September 17-19, 2015

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17 Sustainable Development Goals and 169 Targets

Eradicate extreme poverty by 2030

End hunger and food insecurity by 2030
End all forms of malnutrition by 2030
Double agricultural productivity by 2030
Ensure sustainable food production systems

by 2030

Universal access to safe water and sanitation

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The Food Crisis Arrived!

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Total World Cereals Production

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Est 2015/16

World Production

+23.3%

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Total World Cereals Stock

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Est 2015/16 Closing Stocks China India

+31.3%

+70.8% +81.6%

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World Market Price Change August 2012-August 2015

Cereals -39 %
Food -27 %

Source: FAO. September 2015

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Maize (Corn) Monthly Price U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton 2005-2015

2005-2015: + 71% 2012-2015: - 50% Source: Index Mundi, 2015

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Long-Term Price of Maize in Real Terms, 1908-2024

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 & OECD/FAO 2015

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Wheat Monthly Price U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton 2005-2015

2005-2015: + 71% 2012-2015: - 50% Source: Index Mundi, 2015 June 2005-2015: + 48% June 2012-2015: - 25%

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Rice Monthly Price U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton 2005-2015

2005-2015: + 71% 2012-2015: - 50% Source: Index Mundi, 2015 2005-2015: + 36% 2012-2015: - 39%

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2,900,000,000,000 Pounds of Food Lost Every Year 2-3 Billion More People Could be Fed

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Annual Average Population Growth Rate, %

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 World More Developed Regions Less Developed Regions 1950-2000 2000-2050 2050-2100

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Billions of Middle Class Asians and Percent of the Global Middle Class 2009-2030

Year Billions Percent 2009 0.5 28 2020 1.7 54 2030 3.2 66 Source: Kharas 2010

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The Asian Middle Class’ Purchasing Power (Billions 2005 PPP Dollars) and Percent of the World’s Middle Class’ Total Purchasing Power

Year Billions Percent 2009 5.0 23 2020 14.8 42 2030 32.6 59 Source: Kharas 2010

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Change in the Contribution of Each Food Group to Energy Intake 1980-2005

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The Triple Burden of Malnutrition

1. Energy and protein deficiencies: Hunger
2. Specific nutrient deficiencies: Hidden

Hunger

3. Excessive net energy intake: Overweight

& Obesity

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Hunger Trends for Developing Regions

Source: FAO Hunger Map, 2014.

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Decrease in the Number of Undernourished 1990-92 to 2014-16 (millions) Global Total 203 China 155 (3/4 of total) Rest of World 48

Source: FAO

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Hunger Trends for Africa

Source: FAO Hunger Map, 2014.

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Suggested Priority 1

Large-scale investments in rural infrastructure,

domestic markets and employment

Feeder roads
Appropriate institutions
Farmer associations
Public sector institutions
Market information
Water management infrastructure
Employment creation
Primary education, health care, clean water and improved

sanitation

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Suggested Priority 2

Expansion of public investment in agricultural

research and technology

Improved water management to enhance use efficiency
Increased sustainable land productivity and reduced

production risks

Biotic and abiotic stresses: drought tolerance, resistance to

insects and diseases, salt tolerance

Sustainable production methods, more nutrients/ha
Adaptation to climate change
Use modern science

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Suggested Priority 3

Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to

invest in sustainable agriculture

Savings and credit institutions for farmers
Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for

market and production risks)

Public goods investments: Facilitate private investment

in value chains for improved nutrition

Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders
Establish competitive funds for technology development
Assure incentives for private sector innovation
Clarify land and water tenure
Regulate private investment in land