Climate Change, Soils, Agriculture and the Global Food System 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Change, Soils, Agriculture and the Global Food System 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Session 4 Climate Change, Soils, Agriculture and the Global Food System 1 August 2019 Climate Change Soils Global Food Agriculture System Extreme weather shows vulnerability of soils, agriculture and global food system Extreme weather

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Session 4

Climate Change, Soils, Agriculture and the Global Food System

1 August 2019

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Extreme weather shows vulnerability of soils, agriculture and global food system

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Extreme weather shows vulnerability of soils, agriculture and global food system

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Sea-level rise shows further vulnerability of soils, agriculture and global food system

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Both extreme weather and new patterns of sea-level rise, droughts and floods can transform whole groups of people from net “food producing” into net “food consuming” populations. This can cause local (and perhaps) global crises – very quickly

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Earth’s Ecosystem Supports Humans

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Earth’s Ecosystem Supports Humans

There ARE Limits !

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Earth’s Ecosystem Supports Humans

There ARE Limits !

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This was clearly demonstrated to the modern world by a group of MIT scientists who issued a Report to the Club of Rome in 1972 entitled, “The Limits to Growth”

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Global population has tripled in the lifetime of many adults alive today.

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Global population has tripled in the lifetime of many adults alive today. This has never happened before in human history AND it will not happen again.

Never before AND never again…

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Tim Weiskel - 18

Sir David Attenborough reminds us this warning has been made for hundreds of years…

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2012/08/ 16/people-and-planet-speech-only/

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Tim Weiskel - 19

As Sir David Attenborough points our, Malthus was right. https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2012/08/ 16/people-and-planet-speech-only/

Sir David Attenborough reminds us this warning has been made for hundreds of years…

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Ecologist, William R. Catton, Jr., has made this clear as well…

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William R. Catton, Jr. ….important book on “overshoot”

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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.co m/2017/05/26/william-catton-from-what-a- way-to-go-life-at-the-end-of-empire-3/

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Global population has tripled in the lifetime of many adults alive today. This has never happened before in human history AND it will not happen again.

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Global population has tripled in the lifetime of many adults alive today. This has never happened before in human history AND it will not happen again.

Never before ….AND never again…

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Global population has tripled in the lifetime of many adults alive today. This has never happened before in human history AND it will not happen again.

Never before ….AND never again…

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Global population has tripled in the lifetime of many adults alive today. This has never happened before in human history AND it will not happen again.

Never before ….AND never again…

WHY ? How ?

Why “now” in human history? How was this possible?

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Briefly put… because of the so called “miracle crops” (HYVs - high yield varieties) of the “green revolution”

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Actually the “HYVs” (high yielding varieties) were really “HRVs” (high responding varieties). They required a large and continuous subsidy from fossil fuels to grow at all.

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But, what was the so called “green revolution?”

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2017/05/26/richard- manning-from-what-a-way-to-go-life-at-the-end-of-empire-2/

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Tim Weiskel - 32

Modern civilization’s “blind spot” [ fossil fuels ]

We don’t see what should be obvious…

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Tim Weiskel - 33

Modern civilization’s “blind spot” [ fossil fuels ]

We don’t see what should be obvious… Modern civilization is dependent on non-renewables and therefore will not be renewed in the long run.

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Tim Weiskel - 34

* | ** https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2016/02/13/the- end-of-suburbia-52-minute-documentary-on-peak-oil-3/

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And because of its “car culture,” America is “addicted” to oil. Our leadership knows this… http://www.climate-talks.net/2008-ENVRE130/Video/20080422- YouTube-Klare-Oil-Dep.htm

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Tim Weiskel - 37

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2017/07/20/ when-the-oil-runs-out-4/

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Tim Weiskel - 38

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2017/07/20/ when-the-oil-runs-out-4/

What will happen to petro-dependent agriculture after the peak of global oil extraction is reached?

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Tim Weiskel - 39

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2017/07/20/ when-the-oil-runs-out-4/

What will happen to petro-dependent agriculture after the peak of global oil extraction is reached? Can it continue to expand global food supplies?

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Tim Weiskel - 40

Q: Why has the human community side-stepped

  • r ignored the

“population” problem?

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Tim Weiskel - 41

Q: Why has the human community side-stepped

  • r ignored the

“population” problem? A: Because of

  • ur misguided

understanding

  • f the

ecosystem.

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Tim Weiskel - 42

Q: Why has the human community side-stepped

  • r ignored the

“population” problem? A: Because of

  • ur misguided

understanding

  • f the

ecosystem.

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Tim Weiskel - 43

Q: Why has the human community side-stepped

  • r ignored the

“population” problem? A: … we have come to think of agriculture as an “industry” that can be run

  • n fossil fuels.
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Tim Weiskel - 44

http://www.climate-talks.net/2008- ENVRE130/Audio/20090913-NPR-Borlaug-dies.htm

One man, Norman Borlaug, had a powerful influence

  • n organizing global agriculture on this mistaken

metaphor after World War II

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Tim Weiskel - 45

Compare the BBC obituary with that from NPR in the United States. BBC, Newshour, 13 September 2009

http://www.climate-talks.net/2008- ENVRE130/Audio/20090913-BBC- Borlaug-Newshour-obit.mp3

Norman Borlaug (1914 – 2009)

One man, Norman Borlaug, had a powerful influence

  • n organizing global agriculture on this mistaken

metaphor after World War II

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Green Revolution  Gene Revolution

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Tim Weiskel - 47

Scientists have pointed out that the human growth rates correlate closely with energy availability…What happens to population when that energy [food] is not available

Rate of growth. This is rough approxim imation ion of ‘Hubbert curve’ of fossil l fuel energy resources is very troubling….

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The international scientific community has been convened to address this question. And they have issued the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Report (March 2005).

David Malakoff, "Report Urges Action Against Ecosystem Damage," NPR - Morning Edition, (30 March 2005). http://www.npr.org/dmg/dmg.php?prgCode=ME&showDate= 30-Mar-2005&segNum=5&mediaPref=RM

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Tim Weiskel - 49

Part of the problem comes from transforming the ratios between the “wild” species (forest tree), the “cultivated species” (stalk of wheat) and ourselves. This 1995 UN Ecosystem Assessment Report is the largest and loudest warning signal from the environmental scientists ever.

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Tim Weiskel - 50

No amount of genetic engineering will address the ethical problem of limit posed by the most recent scientific studies.

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Tim Weiskel - 51

Norman Borlaug’s main achievement was to transform solar-based agricultural systems to petro- dependent ones, transforming agricultural to an industrial model across the world. We should now ask: Is this sustainable?

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Tim Weiskel - 52

Clearly the most basic problem of environmental ethics in Western civilization is that We have largely ‘forgotten’ (and it may be that many of our leaders never knew) the basic ecological insight about our collective “niche” as a species in the global ecosystem.

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Never before….and never again.

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The “Food” Problem Norman Borlaug addressed the

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The “Food” Problem Norman Borlaug addressed the

… but we have come to understand that this is only part of:

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The “Food” Problem

The Food/Population Problem

Norman Borlaug addressed the

… but we have come to understand that this is only part of:

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The “Food” Problem

The Food/Population Problem

Norman Borlaug addressed the

… but we have come to understand that this is only part of: … and that, in turn, is

  • nly part of:
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The “Food” Problem

The Food/Population Problem

Norman Borlaug addressed the

… but we have come to understand that this is only part of: … and that, in turn, is

  • nly part of:

The Food/Population/Environment Problem

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The “Food” Problem

The Food/Population Problem

Norman Borlaug addressed the

… but we have come to understand that this is only part of: … and that, in turn, is

  • nly part of:

The Food/Population/Environment Problem [ This Requires a Paradigm Shift ]

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Tim Weiskel - 62

Norman Borlaug (1914 – 2009)

The Crucial Question Is: Will the students and followers of Norman Borlaug be able to make the paradigm shift to sustainable agriculture that is now required for

  • ur collective human

survival?

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If they cannot make this needed paradigm shift – if we cannot collectively make that shift – then, we can expect some very rude and costly disruptions in the global food system in the relatively near future.

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Paradigms – or worldviews – have enormous implications for ethics and for policy…

In the middle of the 20th century – largely following the growth paradigm championed by Norman Borlaug –

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Paradigms – or worldviews – have enormous implications for ethics and for policy…

In the middle of the 20th century – largely following the growth paradigm championed by Norman Borlaug – humanity transformed agriculture from solar based systems to a global petro-dependent

  • ne.

If we are ethically responsible for the foreseeable consequences of our own behavior what will this mean for the ethics of agriculture?

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Where do you stand in the midst of these paradigm shifts?

Tim Weiskel - 66

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Where do you stand in the midst of these paradigm shifts? You need to pay attention to how your mind and heart are being “furnished.” If you don’t someone else will furnish them for

  • you. (Billions are spent each year in this effort).

Tim Weiskel - 67

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Where do you stand in the midst of these paradigm shifts? You need to pay attention to how your mind and heart are being “furnished.” If you don’t someone else will furnish them for

  • you. (Billions are spent each year in this effort).

Higher education and research are your last best chances to prepare yourselves….That’s what education is for. It can prepare you for the paradigm shifts that you will have to undertake in your own life…

Tim Weiskel - 68

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Tim Weiskel - 69

http://youtu.be/CxK8RDyWHsM?t=10s

Scientists have predicted the twilight

  • f the petroleum era… Are we

prepared for the coming energy transition in agriculture?

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Tim Weiskel - 70

Scientists have predicted the twilight

  • f the petroleum era… Are we

prepared for the coming energy transition in agriculture?

http://youtu.be/CxK8RDyWHsM?t=10s

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Tim Weiskel - 71

Scientists have predicted the twilight

  • f the petroleum era… Are we

prepared for the coming energy transition in agriculture?

http://youtu.be/CxK8RDyWHsM?t=10s

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Remember the theory of “Peak Oil”? How will this affect agriculture? What happens “after the peak?”

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Daniel Yergin

Is an “energy expert” who is

  • ften consulted in America on

these issues. What does he have to say?

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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2012/11/01/quest- author-yergin-world-not-running-out-of-oil/

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Because of sources like the Canadian tar sands…

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Because of sources like the Canadian tar sands…

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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2012/11/01/quest- author-yergin-world-not-running-out-of-oil/

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Yergin’s Plateau

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Yergin’s “Plateau” (…looks like a “peak” in any meaningful cultural time frame of reference.)

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Tim Weiskel - 86

Scientists have pointed out that the human growth rates correlate closely with energy availability…

Rate of growth. This rough approxim

  • ximat

ation n

  • f ‘Hubbert

curve’ of fossil fuel energy resou

  • urces

es is very troubling….

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Daniel Yergin

…argues that “peak oil” is not a problem; fracking in U.S. and tar sands from Canada will assure needed supplies of fossil fuels; technology is available to save us from any problems...if governments pass the enabling tax legislation and give the “right” signals AND finance is made available…

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“We’ve created a generation and a half of “nintendo” geologists….” Matt Simmons interviewed in “The End of Suburbia”

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Yergin= A Case Study in the “financialization” of the globe …a “nintendo geologist” (finance focused & myopic)

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Because of his focus on fossil fuels as an “investment opportunity” that remains profitable…

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Because of his focus on fossil fuels as an “investment opportunity” that remains profitable… Daniel Yergin has lost sight

  • f the enormous transition

problem that is facing the whole world as it tries to move beyond its dependence on fossil-fuel- based agriculture.

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Why the 1% Doesn’t See What’s Coming:

The “Institutional Contradiction” of Finance Capital

We should ask ourselves:

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Why the 1% Doesn’t See What’s Coming:

The “Institutional Contradiction” of Finance Capital

We should ask ourselves:

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Why the 1% Doesn’t See What’s Coming:

The “Institutional Contradiction” of Finance Capital

We should ask ourselves:

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Tim Weiskel - 96

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If you don’t learn to see and respond to what is coming after petroleum you will be left like this….

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Tim Weiskel - 98

In the U.S. the corporate anxiety about peak oil has stimulated a new “extractivism” on the part of the current administration. This has, in turn, stimulated a new citizen-based climate activism.

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Tim Weiskel - 99

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Tim Weiskel - 100

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Tim Weiskel - 101

Richard Manning points out that agriculture has hijacked civilization…. One of the most serious dimensions of this is that the fossil fuel industries have totally captured agriculture.

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Tim Weiskel - 102

Remember Richard Manning?

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2017/05/26/richard- manning-from-what-a-way-to-go-life-at-the-end-of-empire-2/

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While the “petro-intensive” agriculture of the “developed” world is facing a crisis, what is happening in places like Africa? A new kind of “imperial land grab”

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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2014/08/04/land-grab-for- food-security-18-nov-09-2/

Briefly, there are very troublesome signs in Africa’s recent evolution.

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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2 012/12/11/ethiopias-land-rush-feeding-the- world-john-vidal/

Briefly, there are very troublesome signs in its recent evolution.

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Drought & floods will ruin this large-scale mono- crop agriculture, leaving Africa with impoverished topsoils that have been “mined” for profits that have been exported outside the continent.…

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Drought & floods will ruin this large-scale mono- crop agriculture, leaving Africa with impoverished topsoils that have been “mined” for profits that have been exported outside the continent.…

The whole process will generate countless migrants, refugees and “militants” – that is, anyone who objects to or resists these “land-grabs.”

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But the power of the “fossil-fuel industrial complex” is immense…and it is currently driving international agriculture and food policy

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2012/09/11/ world-according-to-monsanto/

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Climate Change

Customary policy perspective – anthropocentric, unsustainable

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Focus on the global food system as a “profitable sector” is dangerous. It can lead to

  • ver

exploitation

  • f the soils

and non- sustainable agricultural practices in pursuit of immediate profits.

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Climate Change

Customary policy perspective – anthropocentric, unsustainable

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Climate Change

Customary policy perspective – anthropocentric, unsustainable

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Future Human Population

?

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There are alternatives to this corporate-driven, fossil-fuel dependent agriculture

BUT the urgency of extreme weather catastrophes and climate-driven failures makes these alternative hard to see and act upon.

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There are alternatives to this corporate-driven, fossil-fuel dependent agriculture

BUT the urgency of extreme weather catastrophes and climate-driven failures makes these alternative hard to see and act upon. We need to develop the insight and courage to explore and develop “restorative” and “regenerative” agriculture around the globe.

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Fortunately, there are challengers of the fossil-fuel industrial complex in agriculture.

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/food- mythbusters-do-we-really-need-industrial-agriculture-to-feed-the-world-2/

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Future Human Population

?

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Anna Lappé has taken this message globally, addressing the food crisis

  • n the horizon from climate change.
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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/food- mythbusters-do-we-really-need-industrial-agriculture-to-feed-the-world-2/

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Soils grow food…. Humankind must now learn to grow soil with sustainable permaculture practices

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/food- mythbusters-do-we-really-need-industrial-agriculture-to-feed-the-world-2/

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Soils hold massive amounts of carbon. They can sequester atmospheric carbon OR release their stored carbon, depending on how we treat them.

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2017/05/13/soils- climate/

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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2015/07/01/soils-our- ally-against-climate-change/

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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordp ress.com/2013/02/20/its-in-the-soil-3/

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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2016/11/16/soil-not-oil- conference-dr-vandana-shiva-keynote-speaker-2/

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Our soils are a global treasure! That took millions of years to create

Tim Weiskel - 127

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2015/07/07/ symphony-of-the-soil/

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Tim Weiskel - 128

With the carbon sequestration techniques of soil building that emerges from sustainable agriculture we can address climate change.

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Tim Weiskel - 130

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2016/10/ 23/climate-change-and-the-structure-of-the-global-food- system-the-transition-toward-a-sustainable-agriculture- cambridge-community-television-ev-n-227-cctv/

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Tim Weiskel - 131

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2017/04/01/soil- solutions-to-climate-problems-narrated-by-michael-pollan-3/

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But, what if we change the paradigm?

Tim Weiskel - 132

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2015/07/15/1-what-if- we-change-hope-in-a-changing-climate-by-john-d-liu/

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Tim Weiskel - 133

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/restoration-writ- large-unleashing-the-potential-of-nature-and-people-for-large-scale- ecosystem-restoration-john-liu/

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“We don’t grow plants. We grow soil, and soil grows plants.”

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Extractive Destructive Syndrome

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Extractive Destructive Syndrome Climate change will threaten agriculture and the global food system… IF we pursue the extractive and destructive syndrome toward soils…

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Future Human Population

?

This can will very soon lead to a collapse of global population.

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Restorative, Enhancing Syndrome BUT alternatively we could restore soils, move beyond petro- chemical agriculture, capture carbon, and expand food production.

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Future Human Population

?

This could lead to a sustainable level of human population.

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Future Human Population

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Future Human Population

? ?

What choices will we make?

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This may sound good… but is it “sustainable” or suicidal?

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2018/07/31/sustaina ble-agriculture-according-to-monsanto/

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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2018/03/03/bayer-monsanto- merger-plan-protests/

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https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2018/08/01/monsanto

  • the-company-that-owns-the-worlds-food-supply-youtube/
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This may sound good… but is it “sustainable” or suicidal?

https://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2018/07/31/sustainable- agriculture-according-to-monsanto/

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In a time of climate change, the concentrated ownership of the world’s agricultural resources in the hands of a small number of large corporations is ecologically and economically dangerous.

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Future Human Population

? ?

What choices will we make?

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Climate Change

Global Food System Agriculture Soils

Future Human Population

? ?

What choices will YOU make?

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Remember the basic truths about our role as humas in the ecosystem…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBo- XiOg0g4&list=UUd0XBz6FNzyJupMIoEDC1Fw

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Pay attention to the climate experts… especially those who are thinking globally.

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Finally, keep in focus the irreversible climate changes that are already under way….

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Finally, keep in focus the irreversible climate changes that are already under way…. especially sea-level rise and its impact on rice agriculture in Asia.

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Additional Resources…

Further information and research links on the topic of: Climate Change, Soils, Agriculture and the Global Food System Have been posted for you online Additional Resources for Session 4 Lecture – 1 August 2019

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Session 4

Climate Change, Soils, Agriculture and the Global Food System

1 August 2019