SLIDE 1
Content
- My experiences only* (may/ june 2009)
- POPGROUP & Other
resources
- Workshop activity
Workshop: Local Population Estimates and Projections Paul Davison, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Workshop: Local Population Estimates and Projections Paul Davison, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Workshop: Local Population Estimates and Projections Paul Davison, Research Team Leader Stirling Council Content My experiences only* (may/ june 2009) POPGROUP & Other resources Workshop activity * compare with Fife,
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Drivers
- Local Development Plan
(also Local Housing Strategy/ HNDA)
- Promoting discussion and
greater understanding
- Investigating scenarios and
aspirations
- Encouraging a vision
SLIDE 4
Local Development Plan (LDP) Area
SLIDE 5
Defining Geographies
SLIDE 6
Scenarios
- 1. Principal Projection. Assumptions as for
standard GRO(S) projections.
- 2. New-world order (v1) Reduced in-migration and
fertility in early period of projection.
- 3. V1 variant projection (v1f) – as scenario v1 but
no fertility adjustments from principal.
- 4. Pessimistic scenario (v2) Lower net working-
age in-migration and fertility throughout projection.
- 5. Aspirational scenario (90k) – 90,000 for LDP
area by 2032
SLIDE 7
GRO(S) Inputs for defined area
- Fertility, Mortality and
Migration estimates
- Household estimates and
Headship rates projections, communal establishment figures
SLIDE 8
Pop Projections HH Projections Pop Scenarios Headship Scenarios Housing Unit Requirements
POPGROUP Spreadsheet Spreadsheet
Headship Scenarios Stock, vacancies, demolitions, 2nd homes
SLIDE 9
Population Projections
72,000 74,000 76,000 78,000 80,000 82,000 84,000 86,000 88,000 90,000 92,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Principal v1 v1f v2 90k
SLIDE 10
Household Projections
32000 34000 36000 38000 40000 42000 44000 2 8 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 6 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 6 2 2 8 2 3 2 3 2
Principal v1 v1f v2 90k
SLIDE 11
Projected Housing Requirements
- No. of housing units
- With and without Major Growth Area (MGA)
Population Projection v1 (realistic) 90k (aspiration) Year with MGA without MGA with MGA without MGA 2012
- 397
- 142
- 221
46 2017
- 1171
486
- 791
1000 2022
- 438
2282 152 3027 2032 2382 5257 4050 6925
Negative figures indicate a projected surplus in housing
SLIDE 12
POPGROUP http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/popgroup/
- Any area or sub-populations.
- Past information and their assumptions about the
future for births and fertility, deaths and mortality, and migration
- Standard cohort component method to produce
projections
- Provides results in Excel sheets with data
extraction and chart routines available.
- POPGROUP Input data available from GRO(S)
- Additional local data on request
- Training & online resources
SLIDE 13
Population Estimates and Forecasts Stirling_SC_Area
Population Base for year: 2006
Check sums of all persons entered ……..
87,810 87,810
Population Group …………………………….. Sex Age Stirling SC_area male
446 446
male 1
482 482
male 2
528 528
male 3
498 498
male 4
464 464
male 5
484 484
male 6
512 512
male 7
574 574
male 8
566 566
male 9
555 555
male 10
529 529
male 11
551 551
male 12
585 585
male 13
577 577
male 14
598 598
male 15
571 571
male 16
590 590
male 17
656 656
male 18
869 869
male 19
735 735
male 20
723 723
male 21
656 656
male 22
625 625
male 23
549 549
male 24
490 490
male 25
506 506
male 26
392 392
male 27
427 427
male 28
285 285
male 29
318 318
male 30
304 304
male 31
378 378
male 32
382 382
Validate
Population Estimates and Forecasts
Stirling_SC_Area
Annual Assumptions Fertility
Total, all groups Stirling Council Area
BIRTHS
Year beginning July 1
Options
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Provide total births
Trend total births
Provide births by sex
Double click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below
Data
Total Males Females
FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS (by which to multiply the single age schedule)
Year beginning July 1
Options
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Provide total Trend total Provide age values a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a Trend age values
Double click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below
Data
Total Age
female
15-19
1.00 0.95 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91
female
20-24
1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
female
25-29
1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
female
30-34
1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98
female
35-39
1.00 1.03 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95
female
40-44
1.00 1.06 1.10 1.12 1.12 1.10 1.06 1.02 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96
female
45-49
1.00 1.04 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.04 1.01 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~shortcuts~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ VALIDATE Go to Births Go to Differentials Go to TFRs Options wizard
MORTALITY DIFFERENTIALS
(by which to multiply the single year age-sex schedule)
Year beginning July 1
Options
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Provide Total Trend Total Provide Age-sex a Trend Age-sex a a a a a a a a a a a a a
Double click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below
Data
Total Sex Age
male Newborn/ 0
0.76
male 1-4
0.76
male 5-9
0.76
male 10-14
0.76
male 15-19
0.76
male 20-24
0.76
male 25-29
0.76
male 30-34
0.76
male 35-39
0.76
male 40-44
0.76
male 45-49
0.76
male 50-54
0.76
male 55-59
0.76
male 60-64
0.87
male 65-69
0.87
male 70-74
0.87
male 75-79
0.87
male 80-84
1.01
male 85+
1.01
Population Estimates and Forecasts Stirling_SC_Area Annual Assumptions Migration
Population Group: Stirling Council Area
Migrants
Year beginning July 1
Options
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Provide total migrants Trend total migrants Provide age-sex mgts
a a a a a a a a a a a a a a
NOTE
Double click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below
Data
Total Sex Age male
0-4
106 102 97 97 99 96 95 95 95 95 95 95 95
male
5-9
68 65 64 64 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61
male
10-14
74 70 69 68 68 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
male
15-19
343 332 330 325 323 320 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 3
male
20-24
171 163 159 158 155 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 1
male
25-29
127 123 117 114 113 111 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 1
male
30-34
136 127 122 122 121 118 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 1
male
35-39
112 110 103 103 99 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98
male
40-44
81 77 76 75 74 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 72
male
45-49
46 44 44 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
male
50-54
43 39 38 38 37 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
male
55-59
34 32 32 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
male
60-64
25 23 24 21 20 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
male
65-69
14 14 13 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
male
70-74
11 11 12 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~shortcuts~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ VALIDATE Go to Migrants Go to Differentials Go to SMigRs Options w izard
POPGROUP - Population Estimates and Forecasts Information for this scenario
Scenario identifier: Principal_v1
Contact details (to be included on all output files)
Organisation/Department Name: Stirling Council Research team Other information (e.g. contact details) Final year for this forecast
2032
Double click to browse for directory or workbook names
Default Directory for the input workbooks: I:\RESEARCH\Shared\2.0 Major Ongoing Tasks\Population\stirling forecasts\1_inp\ Directory for the output workbooks: I:\RESEARCH\Shared\2.0 Major Ongoing Tasks\Population\stirling forecasts\1_out\
Save your input f
Input workbook names (you do not need to give the .xls suffix for any workbook names)
running the mode
Base population
popbase
Births & fertility
fert_v1
Migration We Deaths & Mortality
mort Pop'n Housing
In-migration from the UK (optional)
Mig_INUK_v1 50% 100%
Out-migration to the UK (optional)
Mig_OUTUK_v1v2 50% 0%
In-migration from Overseas (optional)
0% 0%
Out-migration to Overseas (optional)
0% 0%
Special Groups (optional) Output workbooks (named automatically from the scenario identifier)
RUN THE MODEL
SLIDE 14
Workshop Task
- Sunnyside and Raintown District
Council
- In Groups – Same Task
- Scribe, Reporter & Artist in