estimates using a census or administrative sources Helen Ross - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Weighting classes versus dual system estimation for population estimates using a census or administrative sources

Helen Ross

Framework for producing population estimates using a census

Census Coverage Survey Estimation Estimates

Framework for producing population estimates using administrative data

A B C Matching Rules Statistical Population Datasets (SPDs) Coverage Survey

Admin datasets

STAGE 5

Estimation Estimates

STAGE 5

Dual system estimation

Census Coverage Survey Counted Missed Total Census Counted n11 n10 n1+ Missed n01 n00 n0+ Total n+1 n+0 n++

Advantages and disadvantages

• Widely used and well understood
• Robust to small violations in assumptions
• Susceptible to biases when assumptions are

violated

• High quality individual level matching required
• Requires adjustments to mitigate against

biases

Weighting class estimation

• Partitioning of data into classes
• Linking of addresses between the survey and

the census (or SPD)

• Calculation of response probability using

information about survey responding and non-responding households

Advantages and disadvantages

• Individual level matching not required
• Less susceptible to overcoverage
• Does not adjust for within household non-

response

• Requires high quality address frame

Simulation studies

Method Scenario Base Base with no within hh NR Truth 0.03%

• Dual system estimation

0.31%

• Age-sex weighting class estimation
• 2.96%
• 0.07%

Relative bias for total population estimates

Simulation studies

• 6.0%
• 5.0%
• 4.0%
• 3.0%
• 2.0%
• 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

Relative bias

No within hh nr - WCE Base - DSE Base - WCE

Summary

• Weighting class estimation is a plausible

alternative to dual system estimation

• Both require a set of underlying assumptions
• Weighting class estimation is less well

understood in this context

• Further work to explore both before any

decisions are made