Mid-year population estimates 2020 Risenga Maluleke - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Mid-year population estimates 2020 Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020 Mid-year population estimates uses the latest available data on.. Mortality Fertility Migration to estimate the size of the
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
Fertility Mortality Migration
Mid-year population estimates uses the latest available data on.. to estimate the size of the population of South Africa.
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
To project the full impact of COVID-19 without sufficient trend data will create a far greater uncertain set of population estimates for current planning and decision-making.
The impact of COVID-19 on conception and subsequent fertility will only be reflected in the reported births
Fertility Mortality Migration
There has been 2657 reported COVID-related deaths by mid-year which is marginal in comparison to overall death count in a given
speculate on the annual COVID-19 related deaths for the cycle of the 2020 MYPE. There is a reduction in international migration which is indicative of the COVID-19 travel restrictions over the past 3 months. Internal mobility in this period has mostly been temporary whilst the MYPE requires a more permanent act of migration.
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 Millions
BIRTHS NET MIGRATION DEATHS
+1,17M
+0,17M
58,8M* 59,6M SA 2019 SA 2020
*data based on 2020 series,
Births are the main driver of population growth in SA
Impact of births, deaths and migration on population, 2019
For the period 2019–2020 the population is estimated to have grown by around 0,8 Million
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
15,49 M 11,53 M 7,01 M 6,73 M 5,85 M 4,68 M 4,11 M 2,93 M 1,29 M
25,8% GP KZN WC
EC LP
MP
More than half of the population live in 3 provinces (GP,KZN and WC)
GP remains SA’s most populated province with approximately 15,5 million people (26%) living in this province. 26,0% 19,3% 11,8% 11,3% 9,8% 7,8% 6,9% 4,9% 2,2%
NW FS NC
57,1%
Mid-year population estimates for South Africa by province, 2020
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
Four provinces have seen increases in population of 8%
EC has shown the lowest change in population
Percentage change in population, 2015 - 2020
0,8% 2,8% 4,1% 6,4% 6,5% 8,0% 8,9% 9,9% 13,4%
EC FS LP NC KZN MP NW WC GP
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 Age 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 72 75 77 79
Millions
Children and youth amount to nearly 38M in SA
Children aged 0-14 and adults aged 15-34 make up more than 60% of the population.
Children 0-14 17,0M Youth 15-34 20,7M Adults 35-59 16,5M Elderly 60+ 5,4M 28,6% 34,7% 27,6% 9,1% The median age in SA is 27
Population age structure by single years, 2020
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
15,0M 17,1M 16,5M 20,7M 11,3M 16,5M
3,5M 5,4M 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2020
Millions
Elderly 60+
Adult 35-59 Youth 15-34
Children 0-14 +2,1M +4,2M +5,2M
Youth 15 – 34 has increased by 4,2m between 2002 & 2020
Children age 0-14 and adults age 15-34 make up more than 60% of the population.
Population growth by age groups over time, 2002–2020
2002 2020
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
24,5% 27,7% 28,6% 31,1% 31,5% 32,4% 35,2% 36,1% 36,6% 39,2%
8,5% 10,3% 9,1% 9,9% 9,0% 10,2% 8,1% 7,9% 11,4% 8,9% GP WC SA FS NW NC KZN MP EC LP Children under 15 within each province Elderly (60+) within each province
67,0% 62,0% 62,3% 59,0% 59,5% 57,4% 56,6% 56,0% 52,0% 51,8%
Youth and Adult
LP has the highest proportion of children under 15 whilst Gauteng has the highest proportion of Youth and Adults (15-59)
Population by age category and province, 2020
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
LP 8,95% 0,52M MP 7,90% 0,37M KZN 8,13% 0,94M EC 11,45% 0,77M FS 9,95% 0,29M NW 8,98% 0,37M NC 10,21% 0,13M WC 10,31% 0,72M
GP 8,46% 1,31M
Percentage of Elderly (60+) within each province 2020, Absolute number of Elderly(60+) in Millions
7,9-8,46% 8,47-8,98% 8,99-11,45%
The EC has the highest proportion of the elderly
The proportion of the elderly in SA is on the increase
The rate of annual growth among elderly (60 years and
2002/2003 to 3% in 2019/2020.
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
51,8 43,8 8,3 6,2
2002 2020
Child Dependency Old Age Dependency
Burden of care in SA has declined over time. Child and old age dependency ratios show a decrease since 2002
Child dependency is on the decline as the fertility rate declines and life expectancy rises.
Old Age and Child Dependency Ratio’s 2002 - 2020
per 100 per 100
per 100 per 100
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
Female Male
(30,5M) (29,1M)
51,1% 48,9%
59,62 million
Approximately 51,1% (30,5 million) of the population is female.
South Africa’s population, mid-2020
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
00-04 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
2,91 M 2,90 M 2,82 M 2,40 M 2,43 M 2,74 M 2,86 M 2,40 M 1,84 M 1,55 M 1,18 M 0,97 M 0,76 M 0,57 M 0,39 M 0,23 M
0,19 M
2,83 M 2,82 M 2,77 M 2,37 M 2,40 M 2,68 M 2,78 M 2,39 M 1,90 M 1,62 M 1,39 M 1,24 M 1,04 M 0,84 M 0,62 M 0,40 M 0,39 M
There is a surplus of females to males at older ages, as well as a significant youth bulge aged 25-39
SA age structure by 5 year groups, 2020
Females Males
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
The population profile differs significantly by province.
GP has a higher proportion of adults aged 25-39, when compared to EC which has a higher proportion of children ages 0-14 and elderly within the province
SA age structure by 5 year groups, 2020 for selected provinces M F M F
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
COLOURED BLACK AFRICAN WHITE INDIAN/ASIAN
(48,2 million) (5,2 million) (4,7 million) (1,5 million)
*Due to rounding totals may not add up to 100%
81% 9% 8% 3%
Total by Population Groups
SA by population group, 2020
The black African population is in the majority and constitutes approximately 81% of the total SA population
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
Black African Coloured Indian/Asian
SA by population group, five year ages 2020
The population distribution varies according to population group. The white population group presents that of an ageing
population whilst the Black African population presents a more youthful population structure. Median age lies in shaded age group.
White
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
22 26 25 29 28 35 35 43 2002 2020
SA by median age 2002- 2020
SA is ageing. The median age in SA has risen from 23 in 2002 to 27 in 2020. The white population group has a far higher median age
compared to all other population groups.
SA 23
SA 27
Black African Coloured Indian/Asian White Age in years
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
(Births)
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020 Total Fertility Rate, 2002-2020 2,66
2,33
2,30 2,35 2,40 2,45 2,50 2,55 2,60 2,65 2,70 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
On average, a woman will give birth to 2,33 children in her lifetime*
The total fertility rate peaked in 2008 at 2,66 and is declining, reaching 2,33 in 2020.
* Provided that current fertility behaviour prevails
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020 Total Fertility Rate by Province
LP EC KZN NW NC MP FS WC GP
0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50
SA Average Fertility Rate is 2,33
2,90 2,85 2,78 2,68 2,61 2,44 2,34 1,90 2,01
Fertility varies from province to province. Less urbanised provinces of LP
and EC indicate higher fertility rates whilst more urbanised provinces such as GP and the WC indicate lower levels of fertility.
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
(Deaths)
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000
All Deaths
AIDS- Related Deaths
The proportion of AIDS-related deaths has declined by almost half, from 30,6% to just over 15%. Deaths peak in 2006, thereafter decreasing to
the current value of 515 804 in 2020. 515 804
Total number of deaths estimated over time vs AIDS-related deaths, 2002-2020
695 461
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
62,5 68,5 65,6 40,0 45,0 50,0 55,0 60,0 65,0 70,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Life expectancy by sex over time, 2002-2020
Female Male
Life expectancy (LE) at birth for 2020 is estimated at 62,5 years for males and 68,5 years for females. Life expectancy (LE) has been increasing
since 2007.
The difference in LE between men and women declines significantly during the era of high AIDS mortality but with increased access to HIV treatment and care, the difference between male and female LE increases reverting to the more normative pattern of higher female LE than males
Total
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020 IMR and U5MR per 1000 live births over time, 2002-2020
55,5 23,6 75,3 34,1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Infant Mortality Rate U5 Mortality Rate
Infant (IMR) and under-five mortality(U5MR) rates in SA continue to
births in 2002 to 23,6 in 2020. Similarly the U5MR declined from 75,3 child deaths per 1 000 live births to 34,1 between 2002 and 2020.
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
FS KZN NC NW EC MP LP SA GP WC
65,7 62,0 64,6 64,8 65,0 66,8 66,3 67,2 68,7 71,0 68,5
There is an average 6 year gap in life expectancy between males and females in SA. Free State has a significantly lower life expectancy than the SA
average
Life Expectancy by province,2020
Female Male
SA
8 year gap in female LE between FS and WC
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Number of people living with HIV, 2002-2020 (millions) Millions
The total number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) is estimated at approximately 7,8 million in 2020. The estimated overall HIV prevalence rate is
approximately 13,0% among the South African population.
7,8million 3,8million
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
980 398 290 555 112 881 61 034 11 554
GP WC NW MP NC FS KZN LP EC
200 000 400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000
Estimated provincial migration streams, 2016–2021
For the period 2016-2021 GP will receive 3 times more migrants than the WC
Net Migration from Outside SA Net Migration Within SA
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
For the period 2016–2021, GP is estimated to experience the largest inflow of migrants of approx. 1 553 162.
The economic strength of Gauteng influences its attractiveness to migrants
Net migration 2016-2021 GP as a destination province
province
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
Western Cape estimated to experience the second highest number of in-migrants for period 2016 to 2021 of approx. 468 568.
Opportunities of employment, study and quality of life play an important role amongst the push-pull factors resulting in high flow of migrants to WC.
Net migration 2016-2021 WC as a destination province
province
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020
15,5 million Average LE 65,6 7,8 million 59,62 million
GP has highest population Life Expectancy People estimated to be living with HIV Mid –year population 2020 Gauteng comprises the largest share of the South African population, with approximately 15,5 million people (26,0%) living in this province. Life expectancy at birth for 2020 is estimated at 62,5 years for males and 68,5 years for females. The estimated overall HIV prevalence rate is approximately 13,0% among the South African population. For 2020, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) estimates the mid-year population at 59,62 million.
GP
Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020