Mid-year population estimates 2020 Risenga Maluleke - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mid-year population estimates 2020 Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Mid-year population estimates uses the latest available data on.. Mortality Fertility Migration to estimate the size of the population of South Africa. Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

To project the full impact of COVID-19 without sufficient trend data will create a far greater uncertain set of population estimates for current planning and decision-making. Fertility Mortality Migration There has been 2657 There is a reduction in reported COVID-related international migration The impact of deaths by mid-year which is indicative of the COVID-19 on which is marginal in COVID-19 travel conception and comparison to overall restrictions over the past subsequent fertility death count in a given 3 months. Internal year. It is premature to mobility in this period has will only be reflected speculate on the annual mostly been temporary in the reported births COVID-19 related deaths whilst the MYPE requires of 2021 . for the cycle of the 2020 a more permanent act of MYPE. migration. Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

South Africa’s 59,62 population, million mid-2020 is Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Births are the main driver of population growth in SA For the period 2019 – 2020 the population is estimated to have grown by around 0,8 Million Impact of births, deaths and migration on population, 2019 61 +0,17M 60 -0,52M +1,17M NET DEATHS 59 59,6M MIGRATION 58,8M* 58 BIRTHS Millions 57 56 55 54 53 SA 2019 SA 2020 52 *data based on 2020 series, Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

More than half of the population live in 3 provinces (GP,KZN and WC) GP remains SA’s most populated province with approximately 15,5 million people (26%) living in this province. Mid-year population estimates for South Africa by province, 2020 15,49 M GP 11,53 M KZN 7,01 M 6,73 M 5,85 M 4,68 M 4,11 M NC 2,93 M EC LP WC 1,29 M NW FS MP 25,8% 26,0% 19,3% 11,8% 11,3% 9,8% 7,8% 6,9% 4,9% 2,2% 57,1% Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Four provinces have seen increases in population of 8% or more between 2015 and 2020 due largely to migration. EC has shown the lowest change in population Percentage change in population, 2015 - 2020 GP 13,4% WC 9,9% NW 8,9% MP 8,0% KZN 6,5% NC 6,4% LP 4,1% FS 2,8% EC 0,8% Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Population Structure Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Children and youth amount to nearly 38M in SA Children aged 0-14 and adults aged 15-34 make up more than 60% of the population. Population age structure by single years, 2020 The median age in 1,2 SA is 27 1 0,8 Millions 0,6 0,4 28,6% 34,7% 27,6% 0,2 9,1% 0 Age 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 72 75 77 79 Children 0-14 Elderly 60+ Youth 15-34 Adults 35-59 17,0M 5,4M 20,7M 16,5M Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Youth 15 – 34 has increased by 4,2m between 2002 & 2020 Children age 0-14 and adults age 15-34 make up more than 60% of the population. Population growth by age groups over time, 2002 – 2020 70 60 5,4M 50 Elderly 60+ 16,5M 3,5M +5,2M Adult 40 11,3M Millions 35-59 30 +4,2M 20,7M Youth 16,5M 15-34 20 Children +2,1M 10 17,1M 15,0M 0-14 0 2002 2020 2002 2020 Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

LP has the highest proportion of children under 15 whilst Gauteng has the highest proportion of Youth and Adults (15-59) Population by age category and province, 2020 Elderly (60+) within Children under 15 within Youth and Adult each province each province LP 8,9% 51,8% 39,2% EC 11,4% 52,0% 36,6% 56,0% MP 7,9% 36,1% KZN 8,1% 56,6% 35,2% NC 10,2% 57,4% 32,4% NW 59,5% 9,0% 31,5% 59,0% FS 9,9% 31,1% SA 9,1% 62,3% 28,6% WC 10,3% 62,0% 27,7% 67,0% GP 8,5% 24,5% Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

The EC has the highest proportion of the elderly GP LP Percentage of Elderly (60+) within each province 2020, Absolute number of Elderly(60+) in Millions 8,46% 8,95% 1,31M 0,52M The proportion of the elderly in SA is on the MP increase NW The rate of annual growth 7,90% among elderly (60 years and 8,98% 0,37M older) rose from 1,1% in 0,37M 2002/2003 to 3% in 2019/2020. FS KZN 9,95% 8,13% NC 0,29M 0,94M 10,21% 0,13M EC 11,45% 7,9-8,46% WC 0,77M 10,31% 8,47-8,98% 0,72M 8,99-11,45% Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Burden of care in SA has declined over time. Child and old age dependency ratios show a decrease since 2002 Old Age and Child Dependency Ratio’s 2002 - 2020 Child Old Age Dependency Dependency 2020 43,8 per 100 6,2 per 100 Child dependency is on the decline as the fertility rate declines and life expectancy rises. 2002 51,8 8,3 per 100 per 100 Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Approximately 51,1% (30,5 million) of the population is female. South Africa’s population, mid -2020 59,62 million Male Female 48,9% 51,1% (29,1M) (30,5M) Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

There is a surplus of females to males at older ages, as well as a significant youth bulge aged 25-39 80+ SA age structure by 5 year groups, 2020 0,19 M 0,39 M 75-79 0,23 M 0,40 M 70-74 0,39 M 0,62 M Males Females 65-69 0,57 M 0,84 M 60-64 0,76 M 1,04 M 55-59 0,97 M 1,24 M 50-54 1,18 M 1,39 M 45-49 1,55 M 1,62 M 40-44 1,84 M 1,90 M 35-39 2,40 M 2,39 M 30-34 2,86 M 2,78 M 25-29 2,74 M 2,68 M 20-24 2,43 M 2,40 M 15-19 2,40 M 2,37 M 10-14 2,82 M 2,77 M 05-09 2,90 M 2,82 M 00-04 2,91 M 2,83 M Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

The population profile differs significantly by province. GP has a higher proportion of adults aged 25-39, when compared to EC which has a higher proportion of children ages 0-14 and elderly within the province SA age structure by 5 year groups, 2020 for selected provinces EC GP 80+ 80+ 75-79 75-79 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 M F M F 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

The black African population is in the majority and constitutes approximately 81% of the total SA population SA by population group, 2020 81% BLACK AFRICAN (48,2 million) COLOURED Total by 9% (5,2 million) Population Groups WHITE (4,7 million) 8% INDIAN/ASIAN (1,5 million) 3% *Due to rounding totals may not add up to 100% Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

The population distribution varies according to population group. The white population group presents that of an ageing population whilst the Black African population presents a more youthful population structure. Median age lies in shaded age group. SA by population group, five year ages 2020 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 White Black African Coloured Indian/Asian Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

SA is ageing. The median age in SA has risen from 23 in 2002 to 27 in 2020. The white population group has a far higher median age compared to all other population groups. SA by median age 2002- 2020 White 43 Age in years Indian/Asian 35 35 Coloured 29 28 SA 27 26 25 Black African SA 23 22 2002 2020 Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Fertility (Births) Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

On average, a woman will give birth to 2,33 children in her lifetime* The total fertility rate peaked in 2008 at 2,66 and is declining, reaching 2,33 in 2020. Total Fertility Rate, 2002-2020 2,70 2,66 2,65 2,60 2,55 2,50 2,45 2,40 2,33 2,35 2,30 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 * Provided that current fertility behaviour prevails Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Fertility varies from province to province. Less urbanised provinces of LP and EC indicate higher fertility rates whilst more urbanised provinces such as GP and the WC indicate lower levels of fertility. Total Fertility Rate by Province 3,50 2,90 2,85 3,00 2,78 2,68 2,61 SA Average 2,44 Fertility Rate is 2,33 2,34 2,50 2,01 1,90 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 KZN NW WC MP NC GP EC FS LP 0,00 Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Mortality (Deaths) Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020 Mortality

The proportion of AIDS-related deaths has declined by almost half, from 30,6% to just over 15%. Deaths peak in 2006, thereafter decreasing to the current value of 515 804 in 2020. Total number of deaths estimated over time vs AIDS-related deaths, 2002-2020 800 000 695 461 700 000 515 804 600 000 500 000 All Deaths 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 AIDS- 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Related Deaths 0 Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020