Looking into the future of our generation Comments on Understanding - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Looking into the future of our generation

Comments on Understanding of children’s work and youth employment outcomes in Indonesia and youth employment outcomes in Indonesia WB, UNICEF, ILO Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo Jakarta: Bappenas, 20 June 2012

20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 1

Timely concern

• Indonesia is facing explosion of young population
• Demographic transition leads to changes in age

structure

• The declining dependency ratio creates ‘bonus

demography’ or demographic dividend demography’ or demographic dividend

• This will lead to the ‘window of opportunity’ where

dependency ratio is the lowest, 44 children per 100 workers

• How can we utilize this golden moment to pursue

economic growth?

• Human capital development is the answer!

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100 150 200 250 ulation in millions

Trend in number of children, working-age and older persons, Indonesia, 1950-2050

working-age

Explosion of the working age 1950-2050 and the Windows of Opportunity 2020-2030

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Percent

Dependency Ratio 0-14, 65+, total Indonesia 1950-2050

Young [<15] Total Window of Opportunity

Demographic Dividend

3

50 Populat Year children 0-14

• lder persons 65+
• Rejuvenation of the working age (Widjojo, 1970)
• Bonus Demography and the Window of Opportunity. 2020-2030
• Leads to economic growth: employment opportunity, investment, labor participation of women and investment
• f children’s education with quality, skill and competence

Sumber : Prof. Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo SE MA PhD Head of Masters Program on Population and Labor University of Indonesia; 2011

10 20 Year Old [>65]

11/06/2012 smadioetomo/FMS2012

Today’s jobless or inadequately employed youth are often yesterday’s child labourers yesterday’s child labourers

page 1 Introduction Summary Report

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Labour Force Projection by Education and the expected New Entry to LF

60% 70% 80% 90% 100% tages

Junior high High School Tertiary education 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 5

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Percentage Year

Expected new entry to LF Need to prepare our children to correct this profile

Primary or less

Calculated by SM Adioetomo. Base projection: Sakernas 2010.

The education profile of Indonesian labour market, 2010-2030

• 1. Assumption: people who enter the labor market

with a particular education attainment, and without intervention to improve their education, will stay with this education until retired or exit

• 2. Until 2015, 37,5 % of our labour market is filled
• 2. Until 2015, 37,5 % of our labour market is filled

with people with primary school or less

• 3. In 2025, this decrease 24, 9 %.
• 4. The new entry should be able to make correction of

the LF profile.

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How to improve our LM profile?

• Need to prepare our children to enter labour market with

quality education, skill (technical and soft skills) and competence to challenge the competitive labour market in 2020-2030 when the Window of Opportunity is open.

• Who should be prioritized?

– Children born in 1995, now aged 17 yrs and will be 25-35 years in 2020-2030 should be prepared to enter labour years in 2020-2030 should be prepared to enter labour market – Children born in 2000, now aged 12 yrs will be 20-30 yrs in should be ready to enter LM – Children born in 2005, now age 7 yrs will be 15-25 yrs in 2020-2030 should be prepared to enter labour market

• Note: but need to keep children 15-24 to stay in school.

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Looking at the past trend is always useful to anticipate future trend useful to anticipate future trend

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10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00

Decreasing Labor Force Participation Rate, children 10-17 years old 2001-2010

10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17 0.00 5.00 10.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

1. Decreasing rates of children in the labor market. 2. Indication of higher enrolment in schooling? 3. But children aged 10-12 in LM is still apparent, should be sent back to school 4. Who is responsible? Parents? (should be empowered), Government? (social protection should be expanded and right targeting).

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Increasing number of children still in school, but lower number

• f girls than boys stay in school. Gender bias in children’s

education.

400,000 500,000 600,000

Number of children still in shool by age (Male)

400,000 500,000 600,000

Number of children still in school by age (Female)

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100,000 200,000 300,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17

100,000 200,000 300,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17

Decreasing trend in percentage of children dropped out from school

60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

Percentages of children dropped out from school

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0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006Ags 2007Ags 2008Ags 2009Ags 2010 10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17

But, thousands of children have no schooling at all.

40,000 50,000

Not yet/ never attending school (Male)

40,000 50,000

Not yet/ never attending school (Female)

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10,000 20,000 30,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17

10,000 20,000 30,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17

Children with no schooling mostly in rural areas, gender bias prevail. Increasing trend?

5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00

Boys 10-17 yrs with no schooling

5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00

Girls 10-17 yrs with no schooling

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0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 2001200220032004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

Urban Rural Total

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 2001200220032004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

Urban Rural Total

Unemployment of children is decreasing. Did they find work? But work for children age 10-12 should be abolished

1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000

Number of children who are unemployment

50 60 70

Unemployement Rate of Children

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200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17 10 20 30 40 2001200220032004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010 10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17

The trend is stable: number of children who were employed

2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000

Trend in Number of children who are employed

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500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17

Children age 10-12 who work should be eliminated Children age 13-14 are permitted to work with conditions

Trend in Education of Child Labour, Employed children 10-12 yrs most likely comes from the poorest family. Empowerment of parents, CCT program should be expanded

50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Education of Employed children (10-12)

50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Education of Employed children (13-14)

40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

Education of Employed children (15-17)

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0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010 No Schooling Did not/has not completed Elementary Completed elementary General Junior High School 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 No Schooling Did not/has not completed Elementary Completed elementary General Junior High School 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010 No Schooling Did not/has not completed Elementary Completed elementary General Junior High School Vocational Junior High School General Senior High School

Status of work 10-12 yrs mostly unpaid family workers, the trend is stable

79.1 76.4 81.8 82.1 76.7 82.6 85.0 89.0

60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Status of work (10-12)

Unpaid worker Casual non-agricultural worker

20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 17 6.2 9.2 7.4 8.4 7.0 8.9 6.5 6.7 3.5 4.3 81.8 82.1 82.6 85.0 89.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

Casual agricultural worker Laborer/staff Employer assisted by permanent/paid workers Employer assisted by non permanent/ unpaid workers

Status of work 13-14yrs Less % of unpaid workers, the trend is stable

70.59 66.12 71.48 70.53 72.12 67.44 71.06 75.02

60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

Status of work (13-14)

Unpaid worker Casual non-agricultural worker Casual agricultural worker

20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 18 13.81 14.06 15.57 12.83 14.71 15.39 13.96 13.76 10.44 11.84 75.02

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

Casual agricultural worker Laborer/staff Employer assisted by permanent/paid workers Employer assisted by non permanent/ unpaid workers Self Employed

Status of work 13-14yrs Less % of unpaid workers, more in formal works, the trend is stable

53.27 48.68 55.73 51.46 56.98 50.97 50.69 53.70

60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

Working Status (15-17)

Unpaid worker Casual non-agricultural worker Casual agricultural worker

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7.38 7.84 7.90 10.18 8.38 9.88 9.56 8.79 8.28 8.18

27.82 25.23 23.57 26.73 23.37 28.27 24.96 27.12 24.64 27.15

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010

Laborer/staff Employer assisted by permanent/paid workers Employer assisted by non permanent/ unpaid workers Self Employed

Nominal wages is increasing. Work in formal sector and children aged 15-17 yrs are better paid. Need to increase education at leas High school at the minimum.

500,000.00 600,000.00 700,000.00

Average monthly wages of working children, formal and informal works

500,000.00 600,000.00 700,000.00

Average monthly wages of working children in formal sector

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0.00 100,000.00 200,000.00 300,000.00 400,000.00 10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17 0.00 100,000.00 200,000.00 300,000.00 400,000.00 10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17

Youth employment 15-24 years

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Half of young population is already in the LM. Were the ready?

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Calculation by SM Adioetomo, From Various Sakernas

Unemployed youth 15-24 yrs is four times fold than total

• employment. Those who can afford to be unemployed comes

from better off families

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0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

Youth employment (15-24) by status of work, Sakernas 2010 Agustus

Laki-laki Perempuan Total 0.0 Total

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Almost 50 percent of female youth are employed in formal sector, where do they work? But percentage of unpaid youth is still high (30%)

15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 100% pekerja

Female 15-24 Male 15-24

Percentage of female youth in manufacture is higher than men, but the trend is stable.

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Persen thd 100%

Laki-laki Perempuan 11/06/2012 smadioetomo/FMS2012 25

Greater opportunity to optimize the utilization of Window od Opportunity, percentage of youth with high school education is increasing

26.3 30.6 29.3

20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 % penduduk 15-24

Persentase lulusan SMA dan SMK 15-24 tahun meningkat

Male

11/06/2012 smadioetomo/FMS2012 26 16.2 8.8

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Persen thd 100% p

Female 15-24

But, again education with quality, skill development (technical and soft skill), and competence should be prioritized.

Policy implication

• Youth who are already in LM should be given skill

and competency based training?

• Entrepreneurship? For those aged 20-24 years.
• Children who will enter labour market should be

prepared, from the womb of the mother. prepared, from the womb of the mother. – Healthy pregnant mothers – Prevent low birth weight, adequate nutrition – Early childhood development – Education and skill – Soft skill is important

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Thank you

• Prof. Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo

toening@indo.net.id smatoening@yahoo.com

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