Future prospects for Spains population: The role of INEs population - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
future prospects for spain s population the role of ine s
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Future prospects for Spains population: The role of INEs population - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 11, 2024 511 likes •747 views

Future prospects for Spains population: The role of INEs population projections Sixto Muriel de la Riva Deputy Director of Population Statistics National Statistics Institute 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of

slide-1
SLIDE 1

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Future prospects for Spain’s population: The role of INE’s population projections

Sixto Muriel de la Riva Deputy Director of Population Statistics National Statistics Institute

slide-2
SLIDE 2

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

What does INE tell about the future of Spain population?

We go down Spain faces a perfect demographic storm: emigration, ageing and low

  • fertility. Since 2018 there will be more

deaths than births El País, 20th November 2012 Spain will lose 5 millions of inhabitants in the next 40

  • years. Older than 64 will be

37% of the total population. ABC, 20th November 2012 Spain will lose population this year and will decrease more than 1 million till 2022 Cinco Días, 20th November 2012 Spain loses population for first time in 40 years The evolution of population will become the funding of the welfare system unsustainable Expansion, 20th November 2012

slide-3
SLIDE 3

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

What is a population projection?

A population projection is NOT a forecast. A population projection is an statistical simulation of the future population, based on several hypothesis about the future demographic evolution. Purpose of INE’s population projection for Spain: showing where the present population structure and the recent demographic trends would lead us in the coming future.

slide-4
SLIDE 4

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

So, INE’s population projection for Spain are…

Objective: simulation of the future consequences of the current population pyramid and demographic behaviours. Useful: warning of possible future scenarios and risks. Relevant: guaranteed by a continuous updating.

slide-5
SLIDE 5

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Last ten years trends in fertility rates by age are extrapolated to the future

Projection of fertility rates Ages 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 20 40 60 80 100 120 2 2 2 5 2 8 2 1 1 2 1 4 2 1 7 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 6 2 2 9 2 3 2 2 3 5 2 3 8 2 4 1 2 4 4 2 4 7 2 5 Year 20 25 30 35 40 45

Projected fertility indicators

1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2 2 2 5 2 8 2 1 1 2 1 4 2 1 7 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 6 2 2 9 2 3 2 2 3 5 2 3 8 2 4 1 2 4 4 2 4 7 2 5 TFR 30,00 30,20 30,40 30,60 30,80 31,00 31,20 31,40 31,60 MAC Total Fertility Rate Mean Age at Childbearing

slide-6
SLIDE 6

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Last ten years trend in mortality risks by sex and age are extrapolated to the future

Projection of mortality risks by age Males 0,0000 0,0001 0,0010 0,0100 0,1000 1,0000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050

slide-7
SLIDE 7

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Current migration rates by sex and age are applied to the future population

Projected immigration rates by age group and world region Males 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9

  • 4

5

  • 9

1

  • 1

4 1 5

  • 1

9 2

  • 2

4 2 5

  • 2

9 3

  • 3

4 3 5

  • 3

9 4

  • 4

4 4 5

  • 4

9 5

  • 5

4 5 5

  • 5

9 6

  • 6

4 6 5

  • 6

9 7

  • 7

4 7 5

  • 7

9 8

  • 8

4 8 5

  • 8

9 9

  • 9

4 9 5

  • 9

9 M á s d e 9 9 Age groups EU Rest of Europe Africa North America Central America and Caribbean South America Asia Oceania

Projected emigration rates sex and age 0,005 0,01 0,015 0,02 0,025 0,03 0,035 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 4 4 4 8 5 2 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 7 2 7 6 8 8 4 8 8 9 2 9 6 1 Age Males Females

slide-8
SLIDE 8

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Spain would have started a long period of population decrease

Evolution of the Spain's population

  • 0,50

0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051

(%)

30.000.000 32.500.000 35.000.000 37.500.000 40.000.000 42.500.000 45.000.000 47.500.000

Inhabitants

Relative population growth Total population

slide-9
SLIDE 9

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

The ageing process would be joined to the loss of population

Spain's population pyramid

1 00 80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80 1 00 5 1 1 5 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 1 00+

Males

Females

Males+females=10000

2052 2042 2032 2022 2012

slide-10
SLIDE 10

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

The dependency rate would reach almost 100% in forty years

Dependency rates 0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 Year % Total Younger than 16 Older than 64

Dependency rates

Year Older than 64 Younger than 16 Total 2012

26,14 24,25 50,39

2022

33,30 24,87 58,17

2032

45,23 22,56 67,79

2042

62,19 24,37 86,56

2052

73,00 26,54 99,54

slide-11
SLIDE 11

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

What is behind these results?

1º. A long cycle of descending number of births is expected. 2º. Life expectancy will keep a positive trend, beyond random fluctuation. 3º. An extension of the present migration intentions.

slide-12
SLIDE 12

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

1º. 2009 opened a expected long cycle of descending evolution of births

Natural growth of the Spain population

  • 300.000
  • 200.000
  • 100.000

100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

Births Deaths Natural balance

slide-13
SLIDE 13

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

The decrease of births is the long term consequence of past fertility crisis

Females between 15 and 49 years old 8000000 8500000 9000000 9500000 10000000 10500000 11000000 11500000 12000000 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Year

slide-14
SLIDE 14

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

The decrease of births is the long term consequence of past fertility crisis

Annual variation rate of females between 15 an 49 years old

  • 1
  • 0,5

0,5 1 1,5 2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Año

Annual variation rate of females between 15 an 49 years old Spanish women

  • 1,4
  • 1,2
  • 1
  • 0,8
  • 0,6
  • 0,4
  • 0,2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Annual variation rate of females between 15 an 49 years old Foreign women 5 10 15 20 25 30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

slide-15
SLIDE 15

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

2º. Life expectancy increases in 1 year every 4-5 years

Life expectancy at birth

70 75 80 85 90 95 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 2047 2051

Males Females

slide-16
SLIDE 16

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

3º. These results are based on the present migrations trends

Annual external migration flows 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Immigrations Emigrations

slide-17
SLIDE 17

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Two final remarks:

Robustness of ageing: the result of a population projection depends on the hypothesis it is based on. However, a future scenario of ageing seems to be very robust for modern societies. Ageing indicators should be analized with a wide perspective: past evolution of ageing indicators might give us a new vision of the ageing problem.

slide-18
SLIDE 18

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Different projections with quite similar results in terms of ageing for Spain

Percentage of population older than 64 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PPLP 2012-2052 (INE) EUROPOP 2010 (EUROSTAT) WORLD POPULATION PROSPECT 2010 (NNUU)

slide-19
SLIDE 19

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Dependency rate would reach 60% in 2025.But… it was higher 40 years ago¡

Dependency rates of Spain population

20 40 60 80 100 120 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 7 1 9 9 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 9 2 2 2 5 2 8 2 1 1 2 1 4 2 1 7 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 6 2 2 9 2 3 2 2 3 5 2 3 8 2 4 1 2 4 4 2 4 7 2 5 Año Younger than 16 Older than 64 Dependency rates of Spain population 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 7 1 9 9 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 9 2 2 2 5 2 8 2 1 1 2 1 4 2 1 7 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 6 2 2 9 2 3 2 2 3 5 2 3 8 2 4 1 2 4 4 2 4 7 2 5 Año Younger than 16 Older than 64

slide-20
SLIDE 20

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Conclusions

Future demographic prospects for Spain:

  • Descending cycle of births, with origin in past fertility crisis.
  • Population in descending trend for a long period.
  • The ratio non workers/workers might be 1 to 1 in 40 years.

The ageing process have strong structural components. High dependency rates are not a newness, but they have a different composition now. …and finally, this is only one of the edge of a multi-face issue¡

slide-21
SLIDE 21

9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Thanks a lot for your attention

Sixto Muriel de la Riva Deputy Director of Population Statistics National Statistics Institute of Spain sixto.muriel.riva@ine.es