Rural housing demand: The road ahead Rolf Penda ndall, J Jun Z - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Rural housing demand: The road ahead Rolf Penda ndall, J Jun Z un Zhu, hu, a and L nd Laur urie G Goodm dman The he F Fut utur ure o of Rur ural Communi unities, May 1 10, 2016 http://snarkybytes.com/2012/10/20/ohio-road/ Main

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Rural housing demand: The road ahead

Rolf Penda ndall, J Jun Z un Zhu, hu, a and L nd Laur urie G Goodm dman The he F Fut utur ure o

  • f Rur

ural Communi unities, May 1 10, 2016

http://snarkybytes.com/2012/10/20/ohio-road/

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SLIDE 2

Main takeaways

Growth and affordability

  • Non-metro growing, but more slowly than metro areas
  • More owner than renter growth in the 2010s in non-metro areas
  • Affordable housing need will increase, especially for rentals

Aging

  • Seniors will head over 40% of non-metro households by 2030
  • All divisions growing seniors, none growing non-seniors

Diversity

  • Non-metro counties less diverse now than metro counties were in

1990, reflecting and reinforcing slow growth and aging

  • Every division will see significant growth in nonwhite households
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Growth and Affordability

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Non-metro population steady to 2040; metro population grows 57M

Non-metro Metro 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) US Population Millions

Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Census Bureau & Urban Institute population projections

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In 14 states, non-metro areas likely to lose population between 2015 and 2030

Source: Urban Institute population projections

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Non-metro household growth continues to 2040 …

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5 10 15 20 25 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Non

  • n-metro H

Hous useho holds ds Millions

Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Urban Institute projections

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… generating new demand for both owner-occupied and rental housing.

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5 10 15 20 25 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Non

  • n-metro H

Hous useho holds ds Millions Owners Renters

Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Urban Institute projections

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Non-metro household growth in all Census divisions

R

  • cky Mtns. fastest, New England, Great Lakes more slowly

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Source: Urban Institute projections

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As households grow, so will demand for affordable rentals and owner-occupied homes

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2 4 6 8 10 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 Renters Owners Non

  • n-met

etro Lo Low-Moder erate e Inc ncome H Hous useho holds ds Millions <30% 30-50% 50-80% 80-115% Household income as a percent of area median

Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 2010, ACS 2014; Urban Institute projections

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SLIDE 10

Aging

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Over a quarter of non-metro population will be at least 65 years old by 2030.

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Non-metro Metro 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Percent of population 65+

Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Urban Institute projections

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As non-metro senior population rises, non-senior population will decline.

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<65 65+ 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Non-metropolitan Population Millions

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Over two-fifths of non-metro households will be senior-headed by 2030.

5 10 15 20 25 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Hous useho holds ds Millions Under 65 65 and older

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Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Urban Institute projections

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Every division will rapidly gain senior households in non-metro areas from 2015 to 2030.

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Every division will lose non-senior households in non-metro areas from 2015 to 2030.

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Diversity

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Non-metro America was less racially diverse in 2010 than metro America was in 1990.

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79% 89% 73% 86% 68% 84%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Metro Non-met Metro Non-met Metro Non-met 1990 2000 2010 Percent of households by race White Black Hispanic Other

Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010

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Rural households diversify but remain mostly white.

5 10 15 20 25 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Hous useho holds ds Millions White Nonwhite

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Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Urban Institute projections

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By 2030, rural households in faster-growth divisions will be 25-30% nonwhite

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Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 2010; Urban Institute projections

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Every division will experience fast growth in nonwhite households

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Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 2010; Urban Institute projections

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Recap and Housing Implications

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Recap and implications

Recap

  • Household growth: Slowing, but still significant
  • Senior households rising, non-seniors declining
  • Diversity growing in every region as white non-Hispanics decline

Housing implications

  • Urgent need for reinvestment in older rural housing, often
  • ccupied by seniors
  • Housing demand will exceed household growth: housing left

behind by seniors, out-migrants won’t work for all new households

  • Need for affordable rural housing will grow—

especially in aging, diversifying rural areas where income growth may lag