Rural housing demand: The road ahead Rolf Penda ndall, J Jun Z - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Rural housing demand: The road ahead Rolf Penda ndall, J Jun Z un Zhu, hu, a and L nd Laur urie G Goodm dman The he F Fut utur ure o of Rur ural Communi unities, May 1 10, 2016 http://snarkybytes.com/2012/10/20/ohio-road/

Main takeaways Growth and affordability  Non-metro growing, but more slowly than metro areas  More owner than renter growth in the 2010s in non-metro areas  Affordable housing need will increase, especially for rentals Aging  Seniors will head over 40% of non-metro households by 2030  All divisions growing seniors, none growing non-seniors Diversity  Non-metro counties less diverse now than metro counties were in 1990, reflecting and reinforcing slow growth and aging  Every division will see significant growth in nonwhite households

3 Growth and Affordability

Non-metro population steady to 2040; metro population grows 57M Millions 350 Metro 300 250 US Population 200 150 100 50 Non -metro 0 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Census Bureau & Urban Institute population projections

In 14 states, non-metro areas likely to lose population between 2015 and 2030 Source: Urban Institute population projections

6 Non-metro household growth continues to 2040 … Millions 25 ds holds 20 useho Hous 15 on-metro H 10 Non 5 0 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Urban Institute projections

7 … generating new demand for both owner-occupied and rental housing. 25 Millions ds holds 20 useho Hous 15 on-metro H 10 Non 5 0 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Owners Renters Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Urban Institute projections

8 Non-metro household growth in all Census divisions R ocky Mtns. fastest, New England, Great Lakes more slowly Source: Urban Institute projections

9 As households grow, so will demand for affordable rentals and owner-occupied homes 10 Millions e erate ds Low-Moder holds 8 useho 6 Hous etro Lo ncome H 4 on-met 2 Inc Non 0 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 Renters Owners Household income as a percent of area median <30% 30-50% 50-80% 80-115% Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 2010, ACS 2014; Urban Institute projections

10 10 Aging

11 11 Over a quarter of non-metro population will be at least 65 years old by 2030. 30% Non-metro Percent of population 65+ 25% Metro 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Urban Institute projections

12 12 As non-metro senior population rises, non-senior population will decline. Millions 45 Non-metropolitan Population 40 35 <65 30 25 20 15 65+ 10 5 0 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p)

13 13 Over two-fifths of non-metro households will be senior-headed by 2030. Millions 25 20 ds holds 15 useho Hous 10 5 0 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) Under 65 65 and older Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Urban Institute projections

14 14 Every division will rapidly gain senior households in non-metro areas from 2015 to 2030.

15 15 Every division will lose non-senior households in non-metro areas from 2015 to 2030.

16 16 Diversity

17 17 Non-metro America was less racially diverse in 2010 than metro America was in 1990. 100% Percent of households by race 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 89% 86% 84% 40% 79% 73% 68% 30% 20% 10% 0% Metro Non-met Metro Non-met Metro Non-met 1990 2000 2010 White Black Hispanic Other Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010

18 18 Rural households diversify but remain mostly white. Millions 25 20 ds holds 15 useho Hous 10 5 0 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p) White Nonwhite Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 1990, 2000, 2010; Urban Institute projections

19 19 By 2030, rural households in faster-growth divisions will be 25-30% nonwhite Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 2010; Urban Institute projections

20 20 Every division will experience fast growth in nonwhite households Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population & Housing 2010; Urban Institute projections

21 21 Recap and Housing Implications

Recap and implications Recap  Household growth: Slowing, but still significant  Senior households rising, non-seniors declining  Diversity growing in every region as white non-Hispanics decline Housing implications  Urgent need for reinvestment in older rural housing, often occupied by seniors  Housing demand will exceed household growth: housing left behind by seniors, out-migrants won’t work for all new households  Need for affordable rural housing will grow— especially in aging, diversifying rural areas where income growth may lag