Texas Matters: Population Boom and Trends Texas Public Power - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Texas Matters: Population Boom and Trends

Texas Public Power Association Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas July 22, 2015

@TexasDemography

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014

Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions)

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All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Population Growth, Texas, 1950-2010

5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Historic County Population, Texas

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

89.5% 86.7% 41.5% 65.9% 49.7% 53.7% 10.5% 13.3% 58.5% 34.1% 50.3% 46.3%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Migration Natural Increase

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014

8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2013-2014

U.S. Rank 2013-2014 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent of Migration that is International Hays County 5 4.8% 83.89% 2.62% Fort Bend County 6 4.7% 80.6% 17.27% Comal County 9 4.0% 90.1% 3.04% Andrews County 12 4.0% 62.8% 3.57% Montgomery County 13 3.8% 82.1% 10.39% Williamson County 14 3.8% 76.8% 7.84% Kendall County 15 3.8% 98.0% 5.02% Ward County 21 3.4% 72.0% 1.49% Denton County 23 3.3% 72.8% 14.2% Collin County 31 3.1% 73.9% 20.1% Aransas County 32 3.1% 110.8% 4.3% Rockwall County 35 3.0% 78.3% 7.8% Waller County 36 2.9% 77.2% 5.3% Ector County 37 2.9% 59.9% 2.0% Guadalupe County 42 2.8% 78.6% 4.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2013

U.S. Rank Population Change Population Change Percent of Change from Natural Increase Percent Change from Migration Percent of Migration that is international Harris County 1 88,618 48.6% 51.4% 54.0% Bexar County 6 33,712 42.8% 57.2% 23.2% Dallas County 8 32,555 69.6% 30.4% 116.3%* Tarrant County 10 31,417 50.8% 49.2% 38.5% Fort Bend County 11 30,784 19.4% 80.6% 17.3% Travis County 12 28,397 38.2% 61.8% 29.7% Collin County 14 26,530 26.1% 73.8% 20.1% Denton County 16 24,211 27.2% 72.8% 14.0% Montgomery County 27 19,129 17.9% 82.1% 10.4% Williamson County 31 18,025 23.2% 76.8% 7.8%

*Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2013-2014

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White 53% NH Black 11% NH Other 4% Hispanic

• r Latino

32%

2000

NH White 45% NH Black 11% NH Other 6% Hispanic

• r Latino

38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

Racial and Ethnic Composition of Texas and Top 10 Most Populous Counties, 2014

NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Asian NH Other TEXAS 43.5% 38.6% 11.7% 4.4% 1.7% Montgomery County 68.6% 22.5% 4.5% 2.6% 1.8% Denton County 61.7% 19.0% 9.1% 7.6% 2.5% Williamson County 61.7% 23.9% 6.1% 5.8% 2.4% Collin County 60.4% 15.1% 9.2% 12.8% 2.6% Travis County 49.7% 33.9% 8.1% 6.2% 2.1% Tarrant County 49.3% 27.8% 15.4% 5.1% 2.3% Fort Bend County 35.1% 24.0% 20.3% 18.7% 1.8% Harris County 31.4% 41.8% 18.5% 6.8% 1.5% Dallas County 31.1% 39.3% 22.3% 5.8% 1.6% Bexar County 29.2% 59.3% 7.2% 2.6% 1.7%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years 80 years 84 years 88 years 92 years 96 years 100 to 104… Population Age White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic

13

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years 25 years 30 years 35 years 40 years 45 years 50 years 55 years 60 years 65 years 70 years 75 years 80 years 85 years 90 years 95 years 100 to 104 years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic

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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years 25 years 30 years 35 years 40 years 45 years 50 years 55 years 60 years 65 years 70 years 75 years 80 years 85 years 90 years 95 years 100 to 104 years

Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years 25 years 30 years 35 years 40 years 45 years 50 years 55 years 60 years 65 years 70 years 75 years 80 years 85 years 90 years 95 years 100 to 104 years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2013 to 2014

17

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

Percent of the Population Born in Texas, Texas Counties, 2009-2013

18

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 Year Sample

Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2013

Inflows to Texas from Top 10 Sending States, 2013

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Top 10 Senders, Numerically Top 10 Senders, Percentage-wise California 66,318 New Mexico 30% Florida 32,619 Louisiana 29% Oklahoma 29,169 Oklahoma 29% Louisiana 29,042 Arkansas 22% Illinois 28,900 Wyoming 17% New Mexico 22,695 Colorado 11% Georgia 19,988 California 11% New York 19,935 Arizona 11% Arizona 19,224 Kansas 10% Colorado 18,979 Mississippi 10%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Flows 2013; Inflows to Texas

Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014

Texas

2,180,000

California

810,000

North Carolina

340,000

New York

550,000

Washington

320,000

Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014

29% 11% 7% 4% Texas California

New York North Carolina Washington

4%

Percentage of Total U.S. Job Gains Attributable to each State

Persons per Square Mile

0 – 10 11 – 50 51 – 500 501 – 4,000 4,001 – 56,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Density by Census Tract, Austin/San Antonio Corridor, 1970-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses. Geolytics, Neighborhood Change Database Tract Data from 1970-2010

Percentage of Population with Drive Times Longer than 25 Minutes, Texas Census Tracts, 1990 and 2010* 1990 2010*

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 decennial census and *American Community Survey, 2008-2012 5 Year Sample.

Percent of HHs with Seniors Percent of HHs with Children <6 years Home- Ownership Rate Percent Living in Poverty Bexar County 23.1 21.9 57.2 17.3 Collin County 17.8 21.1 64.2 8.2 Dallas County 19.2 22.1 50.8 19.6 Denton County 15.7 19.9 64.1 9.1 El Paso County 24.8 19.3 60.9 22.5 Fort Bend County 19.5 18.1 78.2 8.8 Harris County 18.7 22.6 54.3 18.5 Montgomery County 23.6 23.3 71.1 12 Tarrant County 19.8 20.4 60.2 15.3 Travis County 15.1 26.2 51.7 16.1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2013 1-Year Estimates

Percent of Households with at Least One Person Over the Age of 64 Years, Texas Counties, 2008-2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Percent of housing units built between 1940 and 1969, Texas Census Tracts, 2008-2012,

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five- Year Sample, 2008-2012.

Maps of Housing Stock, Proportions Year Built in Bexar County at the Census Block Level

Source: Bexar County Appraisal District

<1960 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 +

Percent of housing units that heat with electricity, Texas Census Tracts, 2008-2012,

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five- Year Sample, 2008-2012.

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Millions

Zero Migration 0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration 2000-2010 Migration

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

32 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050

5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 NH-White NH-Black Hispanic NH-Other

33

Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

1,500 1,000 500 500 1,000 1,500

Under 5 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 65 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 65 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and older

Thousands

2010 Male 2030 Male 2010 Female 2030 Female

Texas Population Change by Age Group, 2010-2030

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above

50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 White Black Hispanic Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas

37 15.0% 23.8% 31.3% 20.1% 9.8% 18.1% 24.0% 29.9% 18.7% 9.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Percent of the Civilian Labor Force Educational Attainment

2011 ACS 2030 Constant 2011 % These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas

38 15.0% 23.8% 31.3% 20.1% 9.8% 11.4% 20.4% 34.3% 22.1% 11.8% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Percent of the Civilian Labor Force Educational Attainment

2011 ACS 2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Summary

• Population continues to grow at a steady pace though growth

is geographically unequal.

• Population growth is being driven largely by the Hispanic

population.

• The population of Texas, while relatively young, is also aging.
• The components of population change have varying

implications for infrastructure in Texas.

• Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious

implications for future Texas economy.

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Demographics & Destiny

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Contact

Office: (512) 936-3542 Email: Lila.Valencia@osd.state.tx.us Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us Twitter: @TexasDemography

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Lila Valencia, Ph.D.