Comprehensive Plan Update Public Meeting #1 January 22-23, 2020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

MOUNTRAIL COUNTY, ND

Comprehensive Plan Update

Public Meeting #1 – January 22-23, 2020

Who we are

Scott Harmstead, AICP | Planner, Senior Associate David Sweeney, AICP | Planner

sharmstead@srfconsulting.com 701.354.2405 dsweeney@srfconsulting.com 701.893.7426

• Geography
• Natural Resources
• Energy
• Agriculture
• Growth Trends and Forecasts
• Demographics
• Housing
• Land Use and Zoning
• Transportation

Where is Mountrail County in 2020?

Energy

Job Service North Dakota – Labor Market Information Center

Energy

2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Barrels per Month Month/Year

Monthly Oil Production, 2009-2019 (Top 4 Counties)

Dunn McKenzie Mountrail Williams

North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources

Oil Production Trends

Energy

Energy

North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources: Oil & Gas Update. November 2018

• DMR forecasts

15,000 oil industry jobs in Mountrail County by 2025

• Gradual transition

from drilling jobs (purple) to production jobs (green) has implications for

• planning. (e.g., long-

term housing needs)

Oil Industry Employment Forecast

Agriculture

15.6% 25.8% 46.9% 7.2% 2.1% 2.4%

2016 Harvested Acres (Percentage)

Dry Edible Peas Canola Spring Wheat Hay Sunflower Oil Barley

Growth and Development

Year Population County Incorporated Communities* County Balance Percent Balance 1960 10,077 5,545 4,532 45.0% 1970 8,437 4,945 3,492 41.4% 1980 7679 4,546 3,133 40.8% 1990 7,021 4,064 2,957 42.1% 2000 6,631 3,982 2,649 40.0% 2010 7,673 4,708 2,965 38.6% 2018 10,218 6,885 3,333 32.6%

• The Western ND Oil boom has reversed decades of population decline
• Most growth is focused in incorporated communities (New Town, Parshall, Stanley)
• Unincorporated areas have grown by ~400 since 2010 and by ~700 since 2000.

*New Town, Palermo, Parshall, Plaza, Ross, Stanley, White Earth

Historical Population Change

Growth and Development

New Town 1: + 266 students in 10 years Stanley 2: + 302 students in 10 years Parshall 3: +4 students in 10 years

749 749 735 749 694 798 880 938 989 1,015 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

New Town 1

411 472 550 601 616 675 679 664 691 713 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Stanley 2

273 270 279 266 281 314 258 271 285 277 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Parshall 3

Student Enrollment

Demographics – Age Breakdown

American Community Survey 2018 Estimates

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 and over

Share of Total Male or Female Age Group

Mountrail County Population Pyramid, 2018

Male Female

Mountrail County is primed for more population growth and increased student enrollment.

Growth and Development – Projections

12,364 15,587 17,367 11,551 13,784 15,086 7,673 13,177 17,390 19,648

7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Population Year

Mountrail County Population Projections

Expected Migration Scenario Low Migration Scenario High Migration Scenario North Dakota Census Office Projections (2016)

Housing

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mountrail County Dunn County McKenzie County Williams County Share of Total Housing Stock

Housing Distribution, Core Oil-Producing Counties

1 unit, attached 1-unit, detached 2-4 units 5 to 9 units 10 to 19 units 20 units or more Mobile home Boat, RV, van, etc. American Community Survey 2013-2017 Estimates

Alternative housing types are limited. A greater diversity of housing options may be needed as the County grows.

Where and how should growth occur?

Alternative 1

Where and how should growth occur?

Alternative 2

Where and how should growth occur?

What lot residential sizes are appropriate in rural, unincorporated areas of the county? 1-2 acres 3-4 acres ~5 acres ~10 acres

Goals and Objectives

Example Goal: Conserve and sustain productive farmland Example Objectives:

1. Limit farmland fragmentation 2. Protect farmland from conflicting uses 3. Minimize soil loss/degradation Example policies and strategies: Zoning and subdivision regs, fiscal incentives, education, coordination with state and regional partners, etc.

Goals and Objectives Development

Hot Topics Goals and Objectives Policies

What are the primary planning issues? (hot topics) What is our desired future and what specific aims do we want to achieve? (goals and objectives) How do we implement the plan? (Zoning and related policies)

Draft Goals

LAND USE

1. Protect the County’s rural character and agricultural heritage. 2. Facilitate orderly and efficient development. 3. Conserve and sustain productive farm and ranch lands. 4. Protect and enhance the quality of natural resources and recreation areas. 5. Promote a positive visual perception of the County and active property maintenance. 6. Protect the quality and supply of the County’s water resources 7. Support the operations of the United States military and preserve the integrity of military facilities and operations in Mountrail County. 8. Encourage ongoing communication and cooperation between different governmental entities within Mountrail County.

Draft Goals

TRANSPORTATION

1. Develop and maintain a transportation system that promotes safety for all users. 2. Develop a transportation system that is sustainable, maintains a state of good repair, and explores low-cost/high-benefit solutions to satisfy the public’s transportation priorities. 3. Effectively and efficiently use available transportation funding. 4. Maximize intergovernmental cooperation and coordination to improve the transportation system.

Draft Goals

INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES

1. Promote efficient extensions, connections, upgrades, and maintenance for water, gas, electric, and other infrastructure to serve development. 2. Development is served by rural water providers to the greatest extent feasible. 3. Development is served by adequate fire protection, law enforcement, schools, emergency, and non-emergency medical services. 4. Collaborate with State agencies to ensure proper wastewater disposal.

Draft Goals

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

1. County core industries – agriculture and energy – continue to drive economic growth and development. 2. Align economic development goals with land use and infrastructure planning. 3. Actively support regional economic development efforts. 4. Promote sufficient permanent housing for a growing labor force. 5. Promote regional linkages between suppliers, producers, and end consumers. 6. Encourage the expansion of technical jobs and match workforce training to suit these jobs. 7. Encourage the expansion and enhancement of outdoor recreation

• pportunities.

8. Promote increased access to high-speed broadband and wireless communication.